The Poll of Polls is predicting a Labour led minority Government with Supply and Confidence from the Māori Party, but that is only one outcome, the others are National/ACT Government and a National minority Government with supply and confidence from NZFirst and ACT.
This blog looks at how a Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party works.
National are selling a Labour minority led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party as the ‘coalition of chaos’ which exposes a grotesque level of ignorance on Chris Luxon’s behalf.
So how would a Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would actually work?
If Labour + Green are reliant on the Māori Party for votes to get the 51% necessary to pass the budget, there would be a price extracted from Labour for that supply and confidence. vote
There will be bottom-lines that the Māori Party will require in return for that supply and confidence vote.
If those bottom-lines are universal policies like GST off food and taxing the Rich, the Maori Party say themselves up as true disruptors and build legacy towards 2026.
The Māori Party would then go onto the cross benches and if their list of demands on policy is too great, it allows Labour to turn to the National Party for votes instead.
The cross bench giveth and it can taketh away, if the Maori Party demands are too great it allows National to offer up votes for legislative changes.
This isn’t ‘chaos’, this is how MMP is supposed to work.
The issue for the Left are what the bottom-lines the Maori Party will demand.
They could be very selfish demands that will permanently damage the Māori Party or they could be wide ranging policy like GST off food that would make an enormous difference to poor people.
That is the true question of the 2023 election, what can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote.
I think the 3 bottom lines in return for their Supply and Confidence vote should be broad universal policies that make an immediate material difference to the poorest amongst us.
1 – Remove GST from food and expand feed the kids to every school
2 – Tax the Banks with a financial transaction tax
3 – Follow Commerce Commission recommendations to set up new supermarket option using Iwi in the same way as 2Degrees was created as the owners with a focus to lower cost to consumers, raise wages and conditions for staff and pay more to suppliers.
Removing GST from food, taxing the rich with a financial transaction tax and creating a new supermarket chain around Iwi would build the Māori Party legacy status.
The naked hypocrisy of the right to twist ‘One person One Vote’ into a negative egalitarian garrotte around the throat of Democracy while screaming ‘we-are-saving-democracy’ is performative art for Fascists.
Because MMP has always brought in moderating forces like NZ First, the pent up political expression of the Right and the Left has been building for almost a quarter of a century and it will finally be expressed at this years election. The amplification of anger will result in an election that will see resentment whichever side wins.
When you dog whistle up the worst angels of our nature by manufacturing existential threats to democracy, you generate a confrontation that you are ultimately responsible for.
I think the Conflict Policies of a National/ACT Government would be disastrous for this country and only a Labour/Green minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party can prevent that from happening.
You have every right to be pissed at Labour and the Greens and the stupid shit they waste time on and incompetently can’t seem to manage (even with a fucking majority) B-U-T that doesn’t justify allowing Darth Vader and his Dancing Christian Stormtroopers from taking over the day care eh?
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media
What it looks like is a government that lurches between the slothful ‘leadership through PR’, and chaos as TMP re-negotiate every policy and Bill.
No payrises and no public service ever again. Do I sound like that bot?
These “What a Government Will Look Like” ruminations are interesting Martyn, but after nearly 40 years of Rogernomics/Ruthanasia, quite a few of us are sick of simply having “least worst option” as the only option to tick on the ballot.
As the collapse of Western Capitalism becomes more dire, there is a growing realisation by the power hungry elite on one side, and our suffering citizens on the other, that the Class War can and will only ever be decided on the streets and in the workplaces.
A NAct far right monstrosity will accelerate this. A handwringing pseudo-Left coalition will slow this development. But either way, it is coming.
If more fAsCisT ideology to protect our corporate exploiters gets established, and the status quo of misery becomes locked in, then the ‘Sleeping Dogs’ scenario becomes a scary possibility. Think about that 🙁
It’s pretty hard to get excited about any of that — and that assumes Labour’s political donors would even allow those things. The party would rather be in opposition than to start losing corporate donations. Wouldn’t Labour prefer to offer some more nonsensical (and cheap) ‘wokeisms’ as their concessions?
One more grocery chain is better than nothing, but is three companies really enough competition? G.J. Coles, I.G.A., Franklins, Rattrays Wholesale, Albert Gubay and Associated Wholesalers Ltd. all had their own chains — and regulators allowed Woolworth’s to gobble up every single one (and apparently nobody was interested in the reasons why three transnational companies simply gave up on the country).
If I understand this correctly, the idea is that Te Pati Maori has some bottom lines, but then goes on to the cross benches.
Why would Labour agree? They don’t need to, it is not as if Te Pati Maori can go right and allow National to form the government.
This scenario is essentially the same as 2017 when the Greens were essentially on the outer, except on this scenario it is Te Pati Maori on the outer.
A Labour coalition with the Maori Party is more of the same but with a racially driven party that would be disruptive and wield more power than its 3.5% deserves. I agree that this is a likely scenario. Great. I almost hope you lefties get what you want and deserve , except I like what’s left of our country too much.
If @ Maori really want to scare the be-Jesus out of the liars, crooks, swindlers, cheats and has-been politicians then they should put on a Hangi for farmers then put all that new found money currently missing from our economy into the betterment of our societies and our whanau by extension. Instead of into the pockets of the four now foreign owned banksters stealing $180.00 a second 24/7/365 and the 14 multi-billionaires and the 3118 multi-millionaires as defined by having more than $50 million each ( Stats re TDB.)
What’s more important? A safe and healthy Opotiki, for example, or another mansion for a Remeura Wanker like jonky? So long as Hawaii has an active volcano and jonky owns a house there we can live in hope.
That $180 dollars a second is old hat .
It is NOW $300 a second in an article on stuff I saw this week.
Lunch in every school…yes baby..school lunches are a nightmare. Most of it will end up in landfill destroying the environment.
But redicurlous at moment where one school has FREE lunches , yet 400m down the road another one dies not.
If this comes to pass racism will grow poverty will grow businesses will leave the country along with any with any ambition.
Yes correct Trevor but surely at least 50% of New Zealanders know that.
If you don’t vote National/Act you are supporting people inferior to yourself.
We can see what any kind of Labour govt looks like….flying two planes to China while we have to pay to save then planet? Fuck that.
With the numerous brain farts you have had in regards to mining, I can only imagine you are taking the piss in regards to saving the planet.
SAC
Well, we are being asked in no uncertain terms to save the planet. Maybe Chippie should fucking lead the way!
And what was the latest government release that dictated that we the general public had to save the planet?
SAC are you joking?
It’s likely Winston is sewing up all the votes from another rest home somewhere in the provinces this afternoon.
He said once lied to never again. He never said who lied to him. National lied to him years ago? Adern lied to him more recently. Has Hipkins lied to him?
It’s going to be close. There could be an auction for hand brakes and baubles.