How ACT is an existential threat to National and why Tamaki will be the proof

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The quick Yellow Fox will jump all over the lazy blue hog

Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.

Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.

National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.

ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.

ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.

In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.

Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.

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ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.

In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.

Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.

Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.

Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.

Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.

Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.

A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.

We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.

This all adds up to an existential threat to National.

Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.

Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.

Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.

If voters on the Right sense Luxon can’t do it, there will be a late protest surge to ACT that will swell them beyond 15%, cannibalising enough National vote to rob them of a possible majority.

If National fail, Luxon will be removed and the internal fight over what National is will begin again, while ACT will start operating as the de facto opposition, (which they pretty much  do already).

While National staggers to define itself in any post election loss, ACT will ruthlessly exploit their weakness and look to actually over take the National vote in 2026, which will strip National out of the main cities and leave them a South Island Party pretending to be from Masterton.

By 2029 National would be relegated to the highlands of the South Island where the cream rises and become a weaponised Grey Power without the teeth.

The Chinese Business Interests that backed National will be disappointed with their return on investment while the Billionaire class will pile into ACT’s class war agenda with the gleeful abandon of billionaires in submarines.

Even if National and ACT win a majority and form a Government, Seymour is so much smarter than Luxon, he will get all of ACTs agenda through, and then some!

In power ACT would take even more energy off National.

National’s only counter strike that will preserve the status quo and at least buy some time to consider their next move is to give Shane Jones an Epsom cup of tea in Northland.

Dilute ACT by including a shot of Winston.

ACT are calling National out and are clear they intend to negotiate hard with Luxon because they are believers.

Fanatics to be more precise.

Luxon flips and flops on a good day. The pressure of a campaign is a unique moment and while there are a thousand reasons to hate Labour, they are still competitive and that’s astounding.

Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme, the middle have decided to vote Labour regardless of how many times Michael Wood didn’t do what he should have done!

Sure, Michael got 13 strikes, but let’s not pretend ACT and National won’t inadvertently start a race war with a referendum that will enforce a new Treaty on Māori eh?

Yes, Michael silly and frustrating, but a hard Right Government forcing a new Treaty on Māori while cutting the Ministry’s of Youth, Ethnic Affairs, Māori, Women, Pacifica AND the Human Rights Commission???

Hold the fuck up.

You have every right to be pissed at Labour and the Greens and the stupid shit they waste time on and incompetently can’t seem to manage (even with a fucking majority) B-U-T that doesn’t justify allowing Darth Vader and his Dancing Christian Stormtroopers from taking over the day care eh?

So.

If National and ACT get in, ACT dominate Luxon and take votes off National and over take them in 2026.

If National and ACT don’t get in, ACT attack National openly and over take them in 2026.

Shane Jones might need a cuppa soon.

Nice to see someone woke up the Unions…

ACT’s contractor plan finds favour with BusinessNZ, but unions say it will worsen inequality 

…yes ACT are going to be terrible. Thanks for joining us.

 

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65 COMMENTS

  1. Vote for the same crowd get the same result – definition of insanity. Nats and Labour two sides of the same coin.

  2. The dithering of the two largely identical main parties on NZ’s deep and systemic problems (like the immigration and housing-dependent economic growth model, educational failures) since 1996 means the need for change will be answered by going to one extreme or the other. Could be ACT, could be Greens/TMP.

    But a Lab/Green/TMP government is not one that offers different paths, more a doubling-down of what we’ve had for the past six years.

    • At some point there will be a “New Winston”, as well as a “New Jim Anderton”.

      That would probably begin the inevitable creation of a “Local Trump” and the “Local Bernie” — but it can’t happen while all of the parties are globalist neo-liberals, who consider both the M.A.G.A. base and the Bernie Bros. to be sworn enemies that must be permanently crushed.

    • Winston and his other paaaart maaaari compatriot Seymour play the same racecard whistle blowing BS. The only difference is Seymour wants a literal civil war by playing the subhuman Mogadishu rhetoric he’ll get one and that will be the end of his political ambitions and probably NZ as we know it?

      • Paaaart Maaaari. Can you name any other “Maaori” public figures who are NOT part-Maori, Stephen?

    • Agree plus with Winston comes Shane Jones who is an even greater blot on the political landscape.

    • Scott such true words.

      Winston and NZ First are done.

      How can any political party be credible when the country doesn’t even know their policies or the people who are standing to be elected for the party.

  3. You are spot on with what you say yet Labour seems to have a real problem with selecting candidates with a public service attitude as shown by the recent problems they have had. In my local electorate (Selwyn) they have selected a young lad with university experience but no real-world experience, while it is a safe National seat the candidate they had here last election has moved to a more winnable seat so you have to assume that he will work up the system. I know nothing about him apart from a short piece in the local paper & he may be a decent person but I would need to know a lot more about him before supporting him.

  4. Wait till Seymour is bumped for Van Velden.

    Then it will be the party were on the right so crave. With MMP now entrenched the right have to splinter for their own electoral success. There is room for a classic liberal party (National), a right wing values party (Act) and a rural conservative party (NZ First). Have a look at European electoral victories for the right – it is always the sum and not the largest party that defines success.

    It is arrogance and hubris that prevents the above happening and if it does, it would be incredibly hard for the left to win again outside of a generational tidal election given the make-up of Labour, MP and the Greens.

  5. Nah, the problem really is Labour and their excesses. Without Labour being the fuckers they were for the last 5+ years ACT would be polling in the single digits. National is just the other side of the purple coin of NuZillindINC.
    However, Act will do well, because Labour fucked up so badly that they have no just become the laughing stock of Aotearoa.

  6. Everything that Act believes in and every policy they want to achieve is well laid out in plain view. It is hard to imagine any policy more extreme they may be hiding.
    So the question is, do Act traditionally get more votes than their polling pre-election indicates? How many secret Act voters are out there lying to the pollsters? We will find that out on election night. The answer may well cause real despair for people on the Left.

  7. Everything that Act believes in and every policy they want to achieve is well laid out in plain view. It is hard to imagine any policy more extreme they may be hiding.
    So the question is, do Act traditionally get more votes than their polling pre-election indicates? How many secret Act voters are out there lying to the pollsters? We will find that out on election night. The answer may well cause real despair for people on the Left.

  8. ACT the values party of The Right? Only if you equate The Right with neoliberalism or right-libertarianism. Few Conservatives will agree with ACT’s free-market fundamentalism and hyper-individualism. NZ needs a proper Conservative party. In the meantime, Conservatives will have to settle for the least of the evils on offer this October.

  9. If Luxon gets enough of the vote to govern with Act all Luxon has to do is not cave in to unrealistic demands from Seymour. Is Seymour prepared to sit on the opposition benches again rather than have two or three ministers in government, I don’t think so. Even the greens wanted the baubles of power rather than successfully challenge government from outside. I believe Seymour would be no different. You’re just trying to be scary Martyn.

    • Of course he would sit on the cross benches, a lame duck Nat government would only garner more support for ACT.

  10. Martyn
    However bad you make it out to be, it will never be as bad as the last 6 years. Never has a govt set NZ back as much.

      • Doh…that was actually far right economists like Hayek, Friedman, the Chicago Boys, Pinochet, Thatcher, Reagan etc. Traitor Rog Douglas was an early adopter in NZ, 40th anniversary in 2024! Inequality went well didn’t it in the dog eat dog economy these filthy comprador capitalists spawned.

        Act is MAGA in the Pacific. I look forward to the action if those gun loving incels get anywhere near political office! Epsom–glorious–keep it up Baldrick.

    • The level of naivete in blaming Labour for the last 6 years astonishes me. I get that people are upset and I even get that they want someone to blame but when do we put our anger aside and try to get some perspective. I’m no supporter and have been plenty critical of Labour but they followed a similar path to pretty much every other government around the world (with better results) and I struggle to imagine a universe where we would have done anything differently. We all need to own our anger and maybe be ready to admit its driving our views on this issue

    • I only partially agree with you here. The current government is certainly way out in front in terms of sheer incompetence. But the title of “Most damaging government in recent history” is fiercely contested by the Lange-Douglas government of the late 1980s. That fatal government ushered in the revisionist “treaty partnership” idea that is making the country ungovernable, replaced our universities with “unicorps” focused on quantity rather than quality of education, and privatized things that should have stayed in public hands e.g. Marsden Point.

  11. Now this govt can’t trace 680 million of the provincial growth fund. WTF there is no documentation from this govt for that. Who has the money? Was it use for bribes…projects…where is it?
    Fuck it, Jacinda and now Chippie, what sort of circus are you running?
    Give us ACT any day!

  12. ” You have every right to be pissed at Labour and the Greens and the stupid shit they waste time on and incompetently can’t seem to manage (even with a fucking majority) B-U-T that doesn’t justify allowing Darth Vader and his Dancing Christian Stormtroopers from taking over the day care eh? ”

    That explains why you didn’t add my post regarding the toothless banking enquiry and I wont shed a tear if they loose Bomber.

  13. ACT, hard-right-wing? Actually, they are strongly liberal (i.e. for individual freedom and property rights), something woke, socialist Labour repudiated daily to the nation’s detriment.

    • They’re more about freedom for rich folk, otherwise you would have to do some pretty amazing mental gymnastics to explain “three strike laws”.

  14. Act are grown ups. Their MPs have attracted no scandals etc, unlike all the other parties in parliament.

    Saying inequality will get worse under act, well hello it’s got worse under Labour. Labour Greens and Te Pati Maori captured by very frightening ideologies.

    Maybe inequality will get even worse under Act, but at least I will have my free speech. If I don’t have that, I have nothing

  15. A letter in The Post on June 20, was telling of ACT’s policies for thousands of older, impecunious people.
    It says a married couple with income of government superannuation and not much else, stand to lose $980 per person per year ($1960) plus the $700 energy supplement (which ACT says will go), totalling $2,660 per year – over $50 a week cash-in-hand – gone!
    Just saying….

  16. I’ll put it out there. I’ll vote Act

    I’ve voted most party’s out there, except Winston (I’ve never trusted him).

    I believe we’re on the wrong course and voting national won’t make a blind bit of difference. To me Luxon is as wet as anyone in labour, and I see no conviction or direction from the Nats. Act, at least have some clear goals, and one of them is not just to be like Labour.

  17. ACT is roger douglas and roger douglas was to prove himself to be a privateer’s plaything. He was selected by private individuals to literally steal our taxes paid for stuff and things, which, once liquidated, became the wealth of the now 14 multi-billionaires. While he denounced taxation and well funded state owned assets which provided services that the mere general public couldn’t otherwise afford to benefit from, like hospitals, public transport, education and housing etc. he was planning to sell those assets to his dodgy fucking mates. Aye Boys?
    In short, roger’s a crook and the ACT party more closely resembles the mafia. They need investigating by independent forensic accountants, the police and The Crown.
    Remember? roger was a two term finance minister with Labour. Labour, never saw roger coming as is evident in Lange’s decision to quit as PM if caucus let roger return after roger and Lange had that infamous falling out. Despite Lange threatening to resign if roger returned to caucus. roger did, so Lange ‘did’ also. I personally think Lange was a good man but like his predecessor, Norman Kirk, they lived with their hearts on his sleeves and openly loved and defended the common person, to their undoing at the feet of the cunning and the greedy.
    Dirty little roger and his protege` seymour have taken our AO/NZ to the very precipice of becoming a republic and by default then to private and almost certainly foreign ownership given the climate catastrophies looming.
    National have destroyed the public’s relationship with our agricultural primary industry by forcing farmers into using agri-chemicals while knowing that unsustainable farming practices would kill the soils and pollute water ways thus dividing and ruling. Seymour has back-doored our finances to private interests waiting in the ally just outside the farm gate.

    • Lange should have read The Prince before he became one. Or simply like Holyoake had every member of his cabinet sign a blank resignation letter to get their position.

  18. Election night will show us how many kiwi voters actually agree with Act’s toxic policies. I am afraid the surprise might be bad.

  19. Let’s entertain the possibility that ACT/NATZO wins and then implement a new interpretation of the TOW on Maori benefiting the tyranny of the majority, which the current interpretation already does. Let say they further marginalize Maori to subhuman status and back a culture into the corner who already are vulnerable!!

    Does that mean that they can still use the maori culture on the international stage? Does that mean rewriting our trade agreements that has TOW clauses imbedded in the FTA? Does it mean the ABs still use the haka before the start of an international match? And are NZers willing to be labeled a racist nations something that most Pakeha NZers detest????

    Leave your comments and please leave out the bigotry thanks.

  20. On election night we will actually see how many voters support Act’s toxic policies. I hope it’s not a nasty surprise.

  21. On election night we will find out how many voters support Act’s toxic policies. I hope it is not a nasty surprise.

  22. Hey Labour and Greens, you’re the govt. Where the fuck is our 680million from the PGF. Receipts please now!

  23. You forgot to mention angry soccer mum’s and the Mum’s of thousands of kids with Obesity issues. Because the education system has give them partcipant and winner certificate s for everything, when they are in fact useless at most things.

    They see ACT as the common sense party.

    • I think obesity is more the reult of the weak kneed soccer mums feeding the little angels what they want rather than what they need marco

  24. I think it is very arrogant to poke fun at billionaires and subs – he had his son with him for FKS Martyn.

  25. “Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme”

    What, more extreme than a government that has legislated gender self-ID? A government that has criminalized parents who are reluctant to “affirm” their child’s belief that s/he was born in the wrong body? More extreme than a government that has imposed maatauranga Maaori on the science curriculum, and wants to teach “social justice maths”? A government that is forever looking for ways to suppress dissenting opinions? A government that thinks ethnicity should be a criterion for prioritizing elective surgeries?

    A Nats/ACT government would have plenty of shortcomings, but could hardly be as extreme as the present lot.

  26. A letter in The Post on June 20, by Aidan Bates was very telling of ACT’s policies for older, impecunious people – and there are a lot of them.
    It notes a married couple with income of government superannuation and not much else, stand to lose $980 per person per year ($1960) plus the $700 energy supplement (which ACT says will go), totalling $2,660 per year – over $50 a week cash-in-hand – gone!
    Just saying…

  27. A letter in The Post on June 20, by Aidan Bates was very telling of ACT’s policies for older, impecunious people – and there are a lot of them.
    It notes a married couple with income of government superannuation and not much else, stand to lose $980 per person per year ($1960) plus the $700 energy supplement (which ACT says will go), totalling $2,660 per year – over $50 a week cash-in-hand – gone!
    Just saying…

  28. The irony.

    How much more Neo-Liberal(fascism) does NZ need to be before ‘we’ realise that all NZ’s political parties are Neo-Liberal?

    Socialism does not exist. Just Neo-Liberal Fascism with a bit of the McCarthyism variety thrown in for censorship and harassment for those who ain’t buy’n what they’re sell’n.

  29. ACT can be shot down by continually drawing attention to them being American Gun Nut Zealots. Kiwis are happy to have gun regulation, anything to deter or control, gun-toting terrorists, gunslinging gangsters, deer hunters killing their love rival mates, shootout cops killing bystanders, the mentally unwell taking out their families and the horrific potential of kids that Don’t Like Monday. The majority will vote against gun nuts.

    A vote for ACT is a vote to make it easy for terrorists to get guns.
    A vote for ACT is a vote to make it easy for criminals to get guns.
    A vote for ACT is a vote to make it easy for gangs to get guns.
    A vote for ACT is a vote to make it easy for the mentally unwell to get guns.
    A vote for ACT is a vote to make it easy for school kids to get guns.
    A vote for ACT is a vote for gun massacres.
    The left and centre need to say this on continual repeat.

  30. Remember 1984-1987? Act is still there.

    Remember Ronald Reagan? Remember how great he was for ushering in new(Neo Liberal) capitalism? He raised the US Debt Ceiling 18 times to pay for it!!

    What about Maggie Thatcher? She too was known for championing Capitalism of the Neo-Conservative kind like Reagan. She sold the North Sea oil fields to pay Capitalism to be Great Again!

    Act is a believer in Neo-Liberal Capitalism, just like its birth parents, Labour, and their two dads, Roger, and David Lange.

    How fuck’n dumb are we for perpetuating this fucked up economic system that continues to eat its arse.

    With the global debt monster that has run out of buyers for that debt. What happens next I wonder? There is no value in currency anymore and paper-based valuations are meaningless when the largest accounting companies have all been outed again for crooked auditing by them.

    Something tells me there’s a brick wall coming towards us all unless WWIII kicks off officially between China, the US, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Taiwan, Japan etc… 2024 is shaping up to be a doozy!!

  31. We Kiwis have very short memories.

    History tells us that political parties in New Zealand never change their policies similar to a leopard never changes its spots.

    Not being one for economics etc, as I am more aligned on rights of citizens, I do take an interest in the cost of policies that various political parties have. Now I wont even start discussing labour policies cost or the harm they are doing to us but lets consider for a minute ACT and their judicial policies for a minute. Locking children up is seemingly going to fix the rising youth issue? Why are we not actually focusing on the core root of the problem? Currently corrections is spending around 12 billion dollars yearly and if these lunatics get elected their policies will double that over night with out a real helpful solution.

    I also struggle to understand how a party who’s own MP resigned because he had stolen a babies identity to create a false passport, can every be credible because they actually knew David Garrett had done so when he was elected as an MP and kept it hush hush.

    Also lets not forget their failed three strikes policy which cost this country hundreds of millions of dollars with little or no results as only 2 Judges ever used that law to its full capacity because that all said it was manifestly unjust.

    Moral to my story is you can implement all the policies you want but when they are ineffective and cost millions what’s the point?

    No Im not a labour supporter in case you are wondering, I’m not a supporter of much right now as i believe that this country currently has no political depth and we are way in the shit.

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