GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Ukraine’s announces its offensive. What is happening on the ground?

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The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive has officially started. President Zelenskyy announcing on 11 June that the operation is underway.  However, it has been clear for a long time that Ukraine has been shaping conditions for the offensive; and last week the information battle significantly intensified.  Although Ukrainian sources were; and remain tight-lipped, Russian sources are pumping out propaganda and disinformation designed to undermine Ukrainian operations and to bolster Russian morale.  This situation, with Ukraine silent and lots of Russian information circulating makes it hard to assess what is really happening on the ground and this article is my assessment; based on public source information of what we can deduce about Ukraine’s offensive. 

First, we know that Ukraine’s operations have changed. Previously, Ukrainian light forces were active across the frontlines, conducting wide ranging reconnaissance and probing Russian defence lines. This week things changed, with a switch to more significant Ukrainian operations that appear to be concentrated on the following axes:

  • A southern axis involving three distinct attacks, each of brigade strength or greater (about 3- 5000 soldiers, 40-50 tanks, hundreds of other vehicles and artillery) at the following points on the Zaporizhian front: 
    • A thrust starting near Orkiv, probably aiming to advance to the major supply hub at the town of Tokmak 40km to the south. Tokmak is a potential step on the way to Melitopol and the force can use the T0408 highway as an axis of advance. 
    • Another thrust emanating from Huliapole, approximately 35-40 km east of Orkiv. This attack is probably also aimed at Tokmak, and using the T0401 highway as its axis of advance. Although a longer route to Tokmak than advancing from Orikiv it is through more open country and provides a second axis that mutually supports the advance from Orikiv.
    • The Velyka Novosilka salient, a bulge pushing north into Ukrainian lines about 40km east of Huliapole.  The aim here is likely to be capturing a force of a Russian soldiers in the salient; a clear victory.
  • An eastern axis of advance the objective of which appears to be trying to encircle Bakhmut and involves two or more brigades (3-8000 soldiers, 40-80 tanks, artillery and a couple of hundred other vehicles). On 10 June, news services reported movement of Ukrainian troops and vehicles through the village of Chasiv Yar towards the battle around Bakhmut indicating a build-up of Ukrainian forces in this area.  

At the time of writing there is little confirmed information about progress although most news agencies are reporting Ukrainian gains of a couple of kilometres on all axes.  The BBC reports that Ukrainian units involved in the Zaporizhian operations include units from the country’s NATO trained reserve of nine brigades.  Including units from 33rd and 47th Mechanised Brigades and 37th Marine Brigade.  In the east, near Bakhmut the units involved are from existing Ukrainian units rather than the new NATO trained units, specifically tasked as the reserve for the offensive.  

Although these attacks are large; and the southern attacks include units from Ukraine’s reserve, in my opinion they are not yet of a size and scale that indicates Ukraine’s main effort.  Instead, my assessment is that these attacks are large probing operations the objective of which is to test Russian defences.  It is likely that most of Ukraine’s NATO trained brigades will be in reserve. Probably located safely out of contact, somewhere within a rough triangle bounded by Bakhmut in the north, Orikiv in the south-west and Vuhledar in the south-east.  The reserve held in this area ready to switch quickly between either of the two current axes depending on their success.  The decision-point is likely to be if an attack manages to break through Russian lines at which point more force will be committed to widen the breach and penetrate deeper into Russia’s depth. 

Russian propaganda is already making claims about defeating the offensive; destroying vast numbers of Ukrainian tanks, armoured vehicles and soldier.  Do not put too much weight on these claims. It is a hard fact of war that Ukrainian soldiers will be killed, equipment lost and vehicles destroyed in this offensive.  Further, this phase will also take a long time, the Ukrainians moving forwards slowly and deliberately and the Russians making their progress as difficult as possible.  Expect to measure progress at this stage in 100s of metres or kilometres per day.  Any measure of the offensive’s success or failure will take time to emerge as either; Ukraine’s momentum grinds to a halt or Russia’s defences fail.  

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Early reports from the frontline indicate that as expected the Russians are well-prepared, dug-in, with obstacles in place and well-rehearsed plans for local counter-attacks to block Ukrainian ‘break-ins;’ re-capturing lost Russian positions that Ukraine could use as a foothold to expand any hole in their defence lines. We can also see that Russia artillery has been practising and rehearsing ready for the battle.  Defensive artillery fire is reported to be accurate and intense; reminiscent of Soviet doctrine that emphasised massive use of artillery in all phases of war including the defence. Russian depth artillery fire also appears to have improved with fire directed by drones achieving long-range damage on at least one Ukrainian column of vehicles far behind the frontline.  The Russians have not often demonstrated the ability to hit moving targets behind the enemy’s frontline; and if they have developed this capability, it will make Ukraine’s advance much harder.

Movement will be slow even if the Russian’s break and retreat because the Ukrainians will need to move their air defence units forwards to cover their advance.  Russia’s biggest current combat advantages are their numbers and their air power.  The Ukrainians do not have air superiority fighters able to sweep Russia’s airpower out of the sky and able to range across the battlefield protecting a fast-moving advance. Instead, they are relying on ground based surface-to-air missiles to keep a protective ‘bubble’ over their forces. This means that for every step forward their forces need to stop and allow their air-defence missiles to move up behind them; a process that takes time and slows down the overall rate of advance. So do not expect sudden deep advances into Russian territory.  

Further, the most troubling (and verified piece) of bad news produced this week by the Russian propaganda machine is that a German made TRML-4D radar system, part of an IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile battery was destroyed.  This is a big blow for Ukraine, radar systems are used to track incoming attack aircraft and to guide surface-to-air missiles to their targets.  The loss of a valuable and useful piece of equipment like this hurts Ukraine’s air defence capability.  The fact that it was tracked down and destroyed is another indication of how Russian targeting capabilities have improved recently.

In summary, we are currently entering a phase of the battle that the Ancient Greeks called doratismos. The time when the opposing side’s formations, or phalanxes were closing with each other but not yet fully engaged. During this phase of the battle the men thrust their spears at the opposing side trying to create a weak spot.  The Ukrainian brigades pushing south and east are modern versions of those spears. The doratismos takes time, soldiers are cautious and protect themselves, spears are broken and there are casualties on both sides.  Ukraine’s large probes are likely to take weeks to see significant gains. 

So, over the next few days and weeks expect to see Russia’s disinformation machine pump out lots of propaganda telling the world that Ukraine has failed. Mainstream Russian media churning out a narrative of Ukrainian failure. Russian bots will already be loading Western conspiracy theorist’s social media echo chambers with commentary about how the offensive is failing. The aim being to soak the offensive up and undermine Ukrainian achievements in order to convince NATO and its allies that they are ‘backing a loser.’  

However, Ukraine’s response will be to provide evidence of its advances and although we are unlikely to see this evidence presented in the next few days, President Zelenskyy’s announcement today is possibly a sign that the offensive is moving in Ukraine’s favour.  It seems likely that if Ukraine was not confident of success it would simply stay quiet and claim that the activity of the last few days was simply more reconnaissance and probing of Russian defences rather than the actual offensive.  President Zelenskyy’s announcement also reduces concerns about Ukraine’s cross-border operations because it indicates that the focus of operations is in Ukraine; not on developing an asymmetric campaign along the border.  A strategy that if continued raises the risk of uncontrolled escalation.  

And; it is important to remember that the next phase of this battle will be what the Ancient Greeks called the othismos. The ‘pushing of the phalanx,’ or the phase of battle during which the two sides closed completely and a battle of physical strength and of each side’s will to win started.  Soldiers hacking and slashing at each other with their swords as the two phalanxes twisted under pressure; until one side’s morale gave out and they broke.  In coming days and weeks, we will see if the Ukrainian offensive is able to break the morale of the Russian defenders sufficiently to achieve a break through; or if Russia’s numbers will prevail.   

 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger

97 COMMENTS

  1. Further, the most troubling (and verified piece) of bad news produced this week by the Russian propaganda machine is that a German made TRML-4D radar system, part of an IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile battery was destroyed.

    So a verified fact is propaganda. Talk about double talk.

    • If that’s Russian “propaganda” what the heck does he call the dozens of photos and videos of destroyed Ukrainian Leopard tanks?

    • Your comment reads like double understanding since you obviously do not want to hear any bad news regarding the Russians. It seems that they blew up a tractor then claimed it was a tank if other sources on the internet are to be believed, this would suggest that we need to be cautious about any information available online.

      • One tractor destroyed by a missile from 10-15km away vs dozens of confirmed Western tanks, Meh.
        But lets cherry pick.

        • Thats a funny one. i saw the first image of the “tank” blown up and it was indeed hazy; but it looked much more like a tank than the combine harvester i later saw presented as the agricultural machine/ tractor as if that was what was supposed to have been in the vid. Propaganda ?
          D J S

      • Bit like the Russians claimed a Leopard tank destroyed after running over a mine. Mechanics bolted on two new road wheels, joined in a new section of track and sent it on its way. Two Bradleys were not so fortunate but by all accounts the troops riding inside all survived to fight on. Total number of Leapords lost by Ukraine according to the Russians is 120+. Not that many Leopard tanks in Ukraine but never mind.

      • Indeed be cautious Bonnie. I saw presented on the news Russian shelling of aid workers in flooded areas. Closer inspection showed the aid workers wore Russian badges. So who was doing the shelling?

        My point is that a fact established is a fact. Then there is spin around it from both sides. As an observer all I want is accurate information, whether I like it or not.

  2. Thanks Ben. I am hoping it goes well for Ukraine.

    Oh, I wish they’d done this with a couple of squadrons of F16s! The timid foot-dragging of many of the western powers is appalling.

  3. Well if this is” scared and tired Russia,”I’d like to see them after a good night’s sleep
    Also where is the “imminent” Russian defeat touted by Ben months ago?
    What does the word “imminent” mean to you Ben?

    • Perhaps the same as the immense t occupation of Kiev that was first quoted over a year ago . I am only a casual observor of the situation in the Ukraine situation but it seems a similar to the smoken mirrors being played by our own left wing government in their story of success .

      • Smoke n mirrors, dirty politics is the domain of the National party Trevor, ffs get it right, your tribalism is showing.

      • lol
        imminent
        meaning …:” ready to take place : happening soon.”
        First mentioned months ago
        Well I knew post modernism had infected academia, words no longer have meaning?

  4. I hope that this offensive is a success and the war can end as soon as possible for everyone’s sake . . clearly too early to tell so far. Thanks again Ben for all your efforts to date.

  5. THat’s a lot of words to say, “don’t worry all the news of Russian success is propaganda” (of course, claiming it is propaganda is the natural angle of Western propaganda).

    Western media is so allergic to inconvenient facts and opposing views, how is a person in the anglo info bubble actually supposed to know what is going on?

    It’s always Sunny in Proxy Ukraine.

    • Paul. If you have the background you claim to have, you can translate all the Russian sources on Telegram can’t you?

  6. Some wit mentioned Russian washing machine manufacturing surged on supply of microchips taken from wrecked Leopards and Bradleys.

    • This war is no laughing matter ‘no honours Nick’. You treat the whole thing as a game where you can play one up man ship. The difference is you don’t have to go back to a ruined Ukraine and a ruined Russia.
      And you haven’t explained your infatuation with the Swedish neo-Nazis.

  7. No honour among thieves.

    The Wagner group is Russian imperialism’s version of the British Empire’s powerful and semi independent East India Company.

    https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa

    https://www.dw.com/en/pmc-russias-wagner-group-in-sudan-gold-military-junta/a-65439746

    In latest developments in Ukraine Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, threatens Russian regular army.

    https://news.yahoo.com/russian-mercenary-boss-vows-stage-145042254.html#:~:text=Wagner%20Group%20founder%20Yevgeny%20Prigozhin,build%20the%20mercenary%20group's%20ranks.

    Ukraine’s counter offensive must be doing better than reported for Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine to turn on each other like this.

    This internal infighting may see the Russian collapse come sooner than most predicted.

  8. You are labeling again you hypocrite. Who is the Swedish neo Nazi? Prove it or piss off.

    As to your faux concern re the ruination of countries, you seem happy if Russia is made to suffer. More hypocrisy.

    • Are you some sort of idiot NickJ? I want a Putinless Russia but one I can go back to and do my research.
      How many times do I have to repeat myself? The Swedish Democrats have neo-Nazi links. Mikael Valtersson who you praised is an organiser for the Swedish Democrats. Are you being deliberately obtuse or does it come naturally?

      • So basically PhuD you are saying that a man who was a Defence Minister in a Swedish government is a Nazi….so Sweden had a Nazi in coalition government? Is that what you are saying PhuD? Or is it possible that the SDs are like ACT or NZ First and sections of the National party, all well known Nazis by your standards. You are both an idiot and bigot.

      • Wiki The Sweden Democrats is a nationalist and right-wing populist political party in Sweden. As of 2022, it is the largest member of Sweden’s right-wing governing bloc to which it provides confidence and supply, and is the second largest party in the Riksdag
        PhuD, you are describing a lot of Swedes as Nazis. Are you a special kind of moron?

    • NickJ. Your research skills are appalling. And stop swearing- that’s an indication of defeat.
      You can’t research if you rely on confirmation bias and that is your problem Nick J.

        • Nick J You haven’t answered the charges against Valtersson that Expressen has made and you haven’t admitted that you were wrong over this gentleman being a Minister of Defence.
          You have no interest in pursuing the truth. Why should we believe you on anything. Stick to your Putinist propaganda.

  9. Johan, if you believe Russia had no reason to launch the SMO you obviously weren’t watching events, or you are just taking the piss.

    PS find a direct quote from Putin threatening first use of Nukes as opposed to in response to nuclear attack.

    • Well you can’t refuse yourself from supporting Putin anymore can you NickJ? You are one of his biggest supporters on this thread. You must be an angry man to support a war criminal like that!

      • PhuD it surprises me how low your powers of observation and cognition are for somebody claiming to be academic. Your ability to make leaps of faith and label based upon presumptions is quite staggering.
        If you cared to read accurately you would at no point found I support Putin, you may have found understanding of his motives and realism about these.
        If you want my position it is totally anti the Kiev junta, the US neocons, the corrupt US imperial system, and resultant NATO aggression.
        One does not need to be pro Putin to be that, unless you view the world as an uncomplicated black and white Manichean place for simpletons of limited intellect.

        • Nick J You are either for Putin or against him. You don’t sit on the fence with war criminals.
          You repeat so much of Putin’s propaganda, including his speeches, that it is sheer effrontery to claim that you are no supporter of his.

          • You just proved my point PhuD, you are lost in a Manichean viewpoint a la George Bush “You are either with us or against us”.

        • Nick J yet again you are using epithets such as ‘neo con’ which are meaningless unless you define them!
          What is a neo con Nick J?
          What’s more NATO is a defensive alliance responding to Russian aggression.

  10. So basically PhuD you are saying that a man who was a Defence Minister in a Swedish government is a Nazi….so Sweden had a Nazi in coalition government? Is that what you are saying PhuD? Or is it possible that the SDs are like ACT or NZ First and sections of the National party, all well known Nazis by your standards. You are both an idiot and bigot.

    • NickJ it is not possible that the Swedish Democrats are like rightist New Zealand parties because our parties have no links to neo-Nazis. The Swedish paper Espressen has proved these links and Owen Jones a doyen of the British left is well aware of these links.
      You tar yourself by association Nick J – with Putin and Swedish neo-Nazis.
      That proves that you are an extremist.

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