Waatea News Column: Where, how and why Māori vote will decide 2023 election

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
65
1343

The latest Newshub Poll repeats what previous Polls have told us, that the Māori vote in 2023 will decide the election.

Māori have shown themselves to be one of the most tactical voting blocks in the NZ electorate and where, how and why Māori vote this year will decide the Government.

Part of this is simple demographics, the future is browner and younger, this election will be the first one ever where Millenials and Gen Xers are a larger voting block than Boomers.

Part of it is the ability to connect via social media, part of it is a resurgent Māori Party and part of it is a younger pakeha generation who don’t see co-governance  as an existential race war.

The ability of Labour’s Māori caucus to gain over $3billion in extra funding for Māori programs is also a strong reason for participation.

I suspect the way the Right have denigrated Māori over the last 3 years has also ensured a backlash amongst many voters appalled at the way Māori have been scapegoated.

ACT are promising this election to repeal the Treaty, rewrite it, and then force it onto the country! If that doesn’t motivate Māori voters, I’m not sure what will.

The challenge for a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party is to pass policy that makes an immediate difference to the lives of those who vote for it.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

People want change, the politicians are the ones dragging their heels.

First published on Waatea News.

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65 COMMENTS

  1. Martyn can you give even one example of the Right having “denigrated” and “scapegoated” Maaori over the last 3 years?

    • Trying to trash N Mahutas reputation by claiming that she had given out contracts to family members, when, she (and they), had in fact gone through the correct process and no conflict of interest was found.

      • Hahahahaha as if there wasn’t a way for a minister to…er…encourage the process. You are so naive.

      • She did that all by herself.
        The media and political opponents exposed it.

        Long live free speech.

      • If criticism of the actions of one Maaori MP is denigration and scapegoating of “Maaori”, then does Willy Jackson’s criticism of Jack Tame’s interview of him imply denigration and scapegoating of “Paakeha”?

        • Denigrate: : to attack the reputation of, defame.

          Your definition, not mine. She had zero to do with the vetting of any contracts. And here you are, denigrating her reputation. Congrats, you cunt.

      • SAC – there was plenty wrong with the investigation into Mahuta but lets just say that what was investigated was squeaky clean. Labour’s investigation only covered a certain time period which just happenned to miss the example of Mahuta not declaring a conflict but being directly involved in the decision making that appointed her niece to a job. I think its detailed by Thomas Cranmer on Substack if you look it up. He’s a lawyer and his articles are always factuallt accurate and his deliberations somewhat circumspect.

        So its all smoke and mirrors and not racist because Labour has played the same game with Stuart Nash IN JUST THE SAME WAY.

    • I think Act’s policy to have a referendum on the Treaty fits into that category. Most Maori I know (a large extended family) find that particular policy abhorrent. They see it as a specific and focussed attempt to deny Maori, who are a minority, their Treaty rights, and that these rights would be determined by the majority against the interests of Maori.

      • The referendum doesn’t have to be binding- but I get your point Act might act but this would never happen in a coalition to remove or alter the treaty.

        However I hear David Seymour talk about two Treaties a lot – can anyone explain this. A journalistic article on this would be great. Or does anyone else know a link to this?

        Personally I would like more of a survey (totally missed opportunity in census) instead of a referendum – I would like to know where ALL of NZ hold the Treaty of Waitangi in their lives.

        If 70% or higher respect it as a constitutional like document then ACT would have no grounds to bother with a referendum.

        I remember how we as a nation discussed euthanasia & legalization of cannabis – I thought we were very mature as a nation and learnt a lot together. I’d love us to do this on what the media & ACT seem to have made the elephant in the room somehow.

        When I travel NZ from the deep south to the North Island I see communities welded together well and this is not an issue. Or am I naïve and do not see underlying issues?

        I also believe the media do not do their job well when doing stories on advancing Maori or Pacifica needs – fueling racism to the haves and have not mentality which I think many in NZ have to drop as it is all about stats.

        Sometimes I wonder if we play cycle catch ups as Maori and Pacifica are at the lower end of the census completions?

        • I observe the same thing when travelling.
          When I read stuff in the media and listen to commentators I learn something very different….. nearly every time!?
          The “underlying” issues are human constructions. Manipulated for expedience.

      • And democracy?
        I think many Maori may well find your paternalistic approach repulsive.

      • 1. Denigrate: : to attack the reputation of, defame.
        Scapegoat (verb): to blame a person or thing for something bad that someone else has done.

        The example you give constitutes neither denigration nor scapegoating.

        2. Would Seymour have felt the need to propose his controversial idea if activists and progressives had taken a more reasonable to the treaty, and limited their focus to recovery (or compensation for) lost land? Currently all sorts of fantastic claims and policies are being justified on the basis of the treaty. The forcible introduction of maatauranga into the science curriculum, for example. And even maths isn’t safe from treaty fantasies – the new school curriculum brings the treaty into maths classes: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=0CAIQw7AJahcKEwiwgdaV8vr-AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.education.govt.nz%2Fpublic%2FDocuments%2FCurriculum%2Fcpm%2FPhase-1-Common-Practice-Model-March-2023.pdf&psig=AOvVaw1MwBKsI4PXD6p0ofAz1Nki&ust=1684362699851194

    • Just so we know you’re not sealioning us, can you give an example of Maori being denegration and scapegoated?

  2. “You’re dream’n mate!” it’s like having to move the ute to get at the truck to move the bike to get at the commodore mate! Yah dream’n mate!

  3. “Te Pāti Māori has accused Prime Minister Chris Hipkins of “oppression” after he warned smaller parties to “be careful” with what bottom lines they present ahead of the general election.

    “You don’t tell indigenous peoples what our bottom lines are,” co-leader Rawiri Waititi”.

    I cannot see this mess of parties coalition ever ever working when that is the staunch position already taken!

    • It is fun though?! Hehehe! The CRTMP is angling in on Labour rejecting them to justify them having to sit on the opposition benches. And, or have no choice but to team up with the Nats.

      If you read the words in the Luxo statement. He didn’t rule out teaming up with the CRTMP. The journo’s framed it like that.

      • Media spin sell the stories.There is not much integrity in the media.

        The adverts that they allow to place are at least trustworthy….. we all know the adverts are spin but even then the woke will find cause and effect to promote imposition of sanctions on behaviour by those who do not wish to conform with their chosen doctrine.

      • Well that’s an interesting scenario? Because CRTMPNat would push Winston to Labour if Winston was still around.

  4. You would have to prove that a) young people are actually politically active; and b) that they actually like race-based policies (vs. Bernie, Trump, etc.)

    • Also Maori are all different and certainly dont all vote TMP. Just look at the percentages.

      Too early to call still. I doubt anyone knows whats going to happen. Although National’s absolute devotion to Luxon despite all the misfiring and small target strategy does make you wonder what their polling is telling them?

      Do they know something we dont? Superficially they look tone deaf and foolish.

      All this talk about National not spending its huge warchest makes me wonder whether they have invested in some HIGH END analytics like Oxford Analytics and like with Trump being elected, they know enough or are manipulating enough to not doubt the result. Food for thought.

  5. If Te Pati Maori become part of a Labour/Greens Government what is their economic policy?
    Current Government has no fiscal reasoning except to spend without knowing how much they have spent.Will TPM demand responsible spending?

  6. Younger, browner is happening right now. Far North got its first Māori Mayor, young Moko Tepania, last year and he is doing well. He communicates daily online, networks with other Mayors, and replies personally to many enquiries.

    In contrast boomer king operates in a bunker and wants the Supercity out of Local Govt. NZ.

    If new gens turnout in the General Election Natzos-ACT will remain where they are. Green/TPM is who to vote for if you have a left world view.

    • I’m not sure the demographic change is really in TPM’s favor. Nearly 200,000 new voters due to covid residency deal. Plus now immigration back to mass inwards and looking like 100,000 net this year, there is no way the indigenous can demographically challenge those numbers… we’re back to the days of colonization of the late 1800s…

  7. If the attitude to the census is their attitude to the election then the Right have nothing to fear from a Maori backlash.
    Maori and Pacifica are poor at getting free vaccinations for their own good will they bother to vote .

    • The number of vaccinated paints a very interesting picture.
      Anthropologist’s dream…..

      Vaccination choices were affected by..
      Compliance
      Care
      Safety
      Personal Health
      Public health
      Fear
      Coercion
      ….

      M+P communities are highly vaccinated for covid. The problem is that vaccinate rates for MMR has dropped from a high 96% for Maori to the low 60% in less than 4 years!!?

    • Maybe it is my attitude towards the census that is the problem.
      I just complete the stupid thing and move on with my life.

      If I also object to some of the stupidity in the census projects, maybe those in power will take note and design a census form that appeals to the sensibilities of more people.

      Or they can offer free hamburgers at McDonalds for a completed census form.

    • The right will all jump in their black Mercedes and drive 50 m to vote. You may well be right.

    • JT will have been very busy collecting Maori email addresses for TPM during the Waiparera and other Maori vaccination efforts to help get out the vote.

  8. The issue of trust is at play here (or lack of trust) when people don’t trust authorities, they are less likely to engage or participate. Also, when the statistics have been overwhelmingly saying one group is not receiving the same level of care or treatment and the information is not being acted on again and again, what sort of reaction do you expect. With all the Maori bashing on this site it doesn’t surprise me. And might I add it’s the same culprits like Trevor and im right et al

    • I am sorry you see my comments as Maori bashing .During my working years I had 2 Maori business partners ,I quit a real estate firm that refused to let me let a home to a Maori family and argued with the area manager at KFC to be allowed to make my Maori cook an assistant manager .
      I see Maori as no different to me so my beef is why do they need a seperate programme to stop smoking ,why do they need exclusive seats in Parliment as they are well represented in the regular members , why a seperate health authority, why are the tribe groups treated as charities and pay no tax (I feel the same about religious groups as well ).
      Maori through incredible sail skill arrived IN NZ first then the British came and took over their land which is the history of most countries .Surely it is time to move on use the skills you have and be better not bitter.

  9. Keep selling the fear & that fantasy, who knows, maybe it will make a difference. Probably not though.

  10. I fear one result of legalising pot will be maori and poor whites spliffing up instead of voting…which is of course neo-libs preferred option

  11. Large numbers of Maori don’t and never have voted for The Maori Party.
    Unless they adopt a less race based policy platform they are always going to be a minority party.
    They’ve got some good policy but to grow their vote they are going to have to be more universal in their approach.

  12. ” ACT are promising this election to repeal the Treaty, rewrite it, and then force it onto the country! If that doesn’t motivate Māori voters, I’m not sure what will. ”

    Bomber ACT are ” promising ” and we know that when politicians promise they don’t deliver.

    There is no way Seymour can repeal the treaty and re write it. Its a threat to attract support but it won’t happen.

    The Nasty Natz would have to support it and I think they would run a mile before giving serious consideration to actually repealing the treaty and the ramifications of that. The next government will be governing as a minority after what will be a possible hung parliament not exactly the best time to be forcing a major change like this without majority support.

    Hell the rich mans spare party had the first majority in MMP history which was as huge as the landslides of 1935 , 1972 and 1990 and they have wasted the opportunity up until now to do anything that addresses the huge issues confronting us.

    Seymour would be a coalition partner and his agenda will have to be supported by a great many risk averse boiled hams to use your term.

    When it comes down to it Seymour will settle for an all out war on government miniseries and implementing severe austerity measures on the people who were living in places like the Loafers Lodge and the agenda of his powerful monied donors.

  13. Mosa we certainly know when Labour promises they don’t deliver.Over 5 years of proof.

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