New Talbot Mills poll shows hung Parliament and why data says National will lose 2023 election


Latest Talbot Mills poll is out and it shows a hung Parliament…



ACT – 10


Māori Party – 4.1

NZF – 3.4

…looking at these numbers on top of the rest of the polling this year and it is becoming very apparent that the only way National can win is if they give Shane Jones an Epson cup of tea in Northland.

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I think it is highly unlikely now that National can win the 2023 election.

If we look at John Key 180 days out from each of his elections, National was beating Labour by double digits, under Luxon, National are beating Labour by 3 points.

National over poll all the time and the number they need to win by has to be in double digits to ensure it can win, National haven’t achieved anything like that since Key left Office and it means a win this year is highly unlikely.

That doesn’t mean the Left can sleep walk to victory, they need to push policy that can actually solve the pain voters are feeling, but it does mean we have everything to fight for.


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    • quite right nathan – if those taking the polling calls are wanting to mess with poll based predictions – tell em something one day and something else the next. what proportion of respondees did not want to say or refused to answer? The bigger this number is the les valid the prediction from the poll.

      • covid is pa – Correct, however, people slaving over polls could keep two things in mind
        1. Election Day is the only poll that counts
        2. NZ has thrown the odd curve ball in terms of polls, and election results.

      • Covid is pa – Er, no…The polls last election picked Labour 35%, National 34%, Greens 15%, ACT 5%…boy, did they get that wrong.

  1. Both Winston and Shane still consider A.C.T. to be too extreme on economics. They may decide to sit in opposition again.

    • Peters wants Utu for the stunts that Jackson and Mallard pulled on him and the perceived poor treatment Ardern gave him post 2020.

      Revenge is the strongest political motivation.

    • Thank goodness, I was just getting worried that we may lift the spirits of NZ workers.
      The only danger is that Winston, Luxon and ACT will find a way to work together. Or maybe National take out a few Moari electorates!
      Comrades, it is time to make sure that workers do not get a deal that will benefit them.

      • Parties forming coalitions in an MMP environment? That is only for the ‘left’. As for the workers, they did not get a decent deal out of Labour in 6 years.

        • A decent deal?

          Us pleb workers got the shittest deal in decades under the ‘be kind’ policies of LINO.

          However, I’ll forever love Jacinda for very long time for driving asset prices through the stratosphere.

          Of course my kids are fucked if they think they’re going to own a house in Auckland, but I’ll suggest they head off to straya for a few years once they’ve finished edumacating themselves. Hopefully they’ll come home but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.

          I mean, right now, why would you??

        • Really? Compared to what would have happened? Minimum wage increases, and although inadequate, some sectors have got more than zero which is what could have happened. Or maybe National would have done the same but while in opposition bleat about anything that might increase people’s pay.

          • We need to be honest and stop these nonsense comments on Labournot supporting workers.
            National promote..A LOW WAGE ECONOMY.

            We cannot vote Nact!

        • Totally incorrect. Workers recieved more than from any other government in history. Your right wing comments are nauseating. Labour will take the workers vote they always will.

    • The last one cost us $25mil.
      Maybe Grant funded a referendum in this budget.
      We will have to wait a few more days.

      Republic: Yes or no.
      New flag: Yes or no.
      New Name: Yes or no.
      New parliamentary term: Yes or no.

      With inflation that comes out at less than $20m per question. Add new AB’s coach, new capital…… and the cost is even more affordable.

      • 25 Million because of John Key’s hubristic sideshow. The actual cost of the referendum per se was a couple of mill.

      • What I mean is to be governed by Referendum. It won’t cost $20m per ref.

        MP’s become representatives of a community, 120 of them. No more list MPs and no need for political parties because the MP representatives will not have the authority to do shit with a direct mandate from their constituents who will have the ability to sack them directly.

        Legislation and policy can be decided by refs and not by MP reps.

        Need to de-power MPs and bureaucrats.

        • We are not very far off “Referendum Republic” if you think about it. The cost of the referendums are already covered by rates and taxes.

          The only problem is that the consultation processes are a total sham. They are a pretence. There is no intention or attempt to follow the direction offered by the voters.

          Consultation processes in NZ work like a suggestion box. They are very expensive and unproductive tick box exercises.

  2. National hasn’t even begun its election campaign. I think you’d better stock up on tissues because there will be an incoming National/ACT government.

    • Yes, National have begun their campaign Andrew and your inexperienced unpopular Luxon is going to get shown up!

      • Pretty sure it’s running about 10 nil to Luxon at the moment while labour, greens and maori party run around looking for feet to shoot.

    • I have waited many years for new comedic talent to arrive in NZ. Thank you and congratulations Andrew.

    • listening to Willis today – they don’t have one except to bag everyone else. Her vague waffle had no content at all.

    • That pretty much started when National, the previous promoters of co governance, all of sudden decided it was evil

      • National have still committed to co-governance for local assets with an historical and continual link.

        They just don’t believe it should entitle 14% to decide what’s appropriate for the other 86% in all issues.

        What’s the problem with that?

        • Luxon said he had no problem with co governance arrangements at a council level, where he wants the water assets to stay. So what’s the difference? He doesn’t seem make that clear when arguing against the three waters proposal.

          It becoming pretty clear from the money being thrown around that it will be a whole lot less than 14% of the population deciding what’s best for the whole country on everything. Probably about 5%

          • He did not.

            He clearly stated there would be no co-governance at national or council level.

            He said he was happy with co-governance with some local issues, which is what we currently have in pace throughout the country.

      • You’re deliberately misrepresenting things here lol.

        Nats are fine with cogovernance of local unique assets where Maori have particular connection. E.g Waikato river. This aligns with the treaty, which provides everyone equal rights under the law while also enabling Maori to have control over their local affairs.

        Labour has expanded cogovernance to the national level. Which clearly is a very different thing. There is zero reason the iwi should have any say whatsoever in the management of the pipes in the ground. There is zero reason iwi should have any more say than anyone else in national level appropriations & service delivery. To do so erodes universal suffrage. Expanding cogovernance in this way violates article 3.

      • Spot on. But the problem is, will any believe them. How willing are they to scrutinise?

        At least some of the experienced consultant journalists are starting to think about their professional integrity, the day after tomorrow and the damage to their carriers if they keep playing the songbook.

    • No dirty politics this time around, Key is gone…oh wait…National are still trolling around Collins?

  3. Here’s a good story for you Martyn.
    We had this hyper fanatic mum on our kid’s sports team. She continuously analysed all sorts of sports data, dug out historic results in certain weather condotions and even presented old school team combinations to prove to herself, and us, that we would win the big race. I think she even bought bubbly to have it ready for the afterparty. We bought in and it was all very exiting!
    On race day we got a pasting. We got smashed.
    So here’s my prediction without data or proof of anything: come election day, the left and Labour in particular, will get a pasting. Labour will get smashed.
    Until then, whatever make you lefties feel good, keep doing it. Especially in education, crime, social housing, transport and combating inflation….keep it up. Your doing just great. The data says so…not.
    And that’s my story.

  4. Seemore is taking money from the rich to pay for his election campaign but at the same he is saying the rich should not be able to use their money to get there way (to those who came out and said tax us more) and that note he should give all those millions back its dirty money for favors.

  5. Depends what way the West Auckland / Hamilton house husband s decide to vote. They are annoyed at the pice of coffee and beer. So they mean lean towards Nicola s better MGMT of the economy.

    • lol – listening to Nicola Willis, she has a lot of talking points but not many economic ones. tax cuts but not tax cuts, cost cutting but not cost cutting – she’s a walking contradiction of conservative cuckoldry.

  6. ” I think it is highly unlikely now that National can win the 2023 election. ”

    Bomber I can’t see the Nasties gifting Northland to Jones as both major parties have never really grasped MMP.
    Northland is a true blue National seat and unless there is an accurate poll showing Jones is ahead then its a pointless argument.

    If the current numbers stay about the same but Winston can reach the 5% then its more likely that he will possibly in a hung parliament support National -ACT on a case by case basis which is exactly where he wants to be.

    Seymour desperately wants to usher in the next phase of the neo liberal revolution and will not want to have to go to Peters for permission to do anything but will want to be in government.

    Winston is the best prospect of a change in government.

  7. Lets face it.
    The country is screwed on just about every metric you choose to measure.
    We will still be screwed no matter the outcome come election time.

    • I guess you have a point jack. Just a cork bobbing around in the South Pacific in a world that is getting more screwed up by the year. Some places are already basket cases, or to continue the train of thought, well and truly f*cked up. Any hope for us lot?
      Same old, but different. Put another way, you want fries with that? But we cant give up that easy, eh. Must be some bright rays on the eastern horizon.

  8. The trend, which is all these early polls suggest is Labour is on decent.

    Greens have a rusted on woke base of at least 5%.
    National have yet to break free of the Luxon effect.
    ACT taking votes getting the Nats and Labour.
    TMP taking votes from the left.

    The trend suggests a change of government.

    • Not so fast XRAY..
      NZ First cannibalizing National to the point the right bloc cannibalizing each other suggesting TPM kingmaker.

      However if NZ figure out how inept Luxon is Chippie is a shoe in.

      “Luxon rejected the suggestion his political announcement was in itself grandstanding, but he did acknowledge the main point of it was “framing to New Zealanders” that Te Pāti Māori was closer to Labour than National.

      In Parliament “framing” is another word for spin.”

  9. Winston has categorically ruled out working with Labour.

    Yesterday Winston also said he didnt need or want A cup of Tea for Shane in Northland, said something to the effect that it lacked Mana. At the same time, once again Scheme More was busying trashing NZF and seemed to be saying ACT cant work with NZF.

    Interesting days. It will be interesting to see how many former Labourites vote NZF this time.

  10. Martyn – I’m happy and respect you to have an opinion. This goes both ways I hope.

    But to phantom an idea out of a poll that seems very different from the Tax Payers Union one is interesting.

    I’m not a fan of the Tax Payers Union much but I sure as heck would rely on their polling more as the past results have shown.

    Keep on Martyn – hype the greens up so they can do something in the future like the nothing in the last 5.5 years.

  11. Shit I thought Winston was mid 80’s, he is certainly holding his age well, even though he is half silly, however more intelligent and experienced than some of these other clowns IMHO.

  12. Recently two families we know visited from Australia to see their kiwi family and friends for the first time since pre Covid. After one- two weeks here they both told me similar stories. They said a lot of people in New Zealand seemed angry, stressed and looked unhealth. They lamented the state of our roads and infrastructure, and one unfortunately spent time in Hutt hospital with their infant daughter. He sent me photos of the hospital and could not believe he was in NZ (holes in walls, rotting window frames, broken windows held together with masking tape). Seen better hospitals in Thailand. They said they love NZ but it feels like we’ve gone backwards since they were last here. They said it made them feel sad! It shook me to hear the genuine concern in their voice.

    Labour should get trounced but for some bizarre reason they’re in with a fighting chance.

    I’m sure come election day in the privacy of the booth the silent majority will cast their vote and exact revenge for 6 years of failure.

    • What a very naive comment. If you seriously believe the state of our country is because of neglect of the last 6 years you have rocks in your head. It takes years of neglect and I saw first hand water running down the walls of an Auckland hospital in 2016. Labour wasn’t in power then. I was also in a clinical meeting where the clinical director informed clinical staff that the then health Minister Jonathan Coleman had given a directive that we had to do more with less and there would be no future funding for staffing and infrastructure for 3 years. I appreciate the right wing are hard out with lampooning this government but comments should be based on fact not the way you personally lean.

    • I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that virtually everyone is trying to get out of the country.

      The only difference is that many people can’t afford to leave. The neo-liberal cronies running the show would be glad to see everyone gone — they’d much rather that everything was run on cheap imported labour.

      As huge numbers of the most motivated and educated people leave, the standard of those left behind falls through the floor. Welcome to the Third World nation of motel cleaners and landless cattle laborers

    • I always found there seemed to be more hope & optimism in Australia when I was working there. Sunshine, warmth, better living conditions & wages certainly contribute to that, Australians seem to have a bit more confidence too.

  13. A clan of vile pro natzo agri-morons bullied Adern out of office and so now we have a colourless, odourless Chip with all the personality of a clockwork carrot.
    Looming under Chip is a salary earning corporate minion who only aspires to his own agendas and that’s “Fuck off and gimme the money.”
    I was just in a medium sized atypical Kiwi-As city where the main street was cheap, ugly as fuck shop fronts covered in nasty advertising pleading with the public to come in, spend, then spend then fuck off.
    roger douglas and his loony, psychotic, money fetishists have warped our AO/NZ away from a beautiful thing into a garish, plastic aberration of a carefully constructed virtual reality where greed is good. I don’t know about you but all I can do is look on in a kind of dull, slow motion emotional horror unfolding slowly as we all get assimilated into a morass of debt to pay to enjoy cheap thrills then death.
    Chip only knows neoliberalism. He was six years old when roger and his band of scum bags dropped neoliberalism on an unsuspecting AO/NZ.
    Luxon’s a snake looking for a slither. Avoid.

  14. Interesting. Ten or more years ago, when National were consistently on 40-42% and Act were around 5-6%, the left mocked them by calling them National no mates – having a laugh that there seemed an inability for the centre right to have sufficient party support to reach 50%. Now that has changed and Act is no longer the anorexic dependent it once was, the ability for the CR to attract >50% is improving. The increasing profile of The Maori Party may have an unintended consequence in driving folk on the left who are concerned about co-governance to National or Grandad Winston. Interesting times.


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