The New OZ/NZ relationship as war drums sound in Pacific: Winners, Losers & Predictions 


For the first time ever, I’m genuinely worried about war in the Pacific because what was decided this weekend between Australia and NZ only ever happens when a far larger interest enters the room.

Australia’s love affair with bashing Kiwis is as deeply rooted as a burning cross. To finally agree to 400 000 New Zealanders being able to gain citizenship doesn’t happen for shits and giggles, to give up a racist political cudgel as popular as bashing Kiwis means something far larger is coming.

There are of course political winners and losers.



Albanese and Australian Labor Party – Albanese is a powerful new voice for change and he just found 400 000 new voters.

Chippy and the NZ Labour Party – Labour traditionally have done very well in the overseas vote, but the bitterness over the MIQ process has dented those voters. 400 000 duel citizens in Australia however have just found a reason to vote for NZ Labour in gratitude.

NZ Police Intelligence – They are finally getting intelligence collected by the Spy agencies intercepting South American Cartels and 501 syndicates arranging for meth importation.

America’s Military Industrial Complex – This is only being sorted out because intense pressure from the building American war in the Pacific demands it.

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Bonded Nurses, Teachers and perks for Essential Service Providers – the joy of the new citizenship rules means for the first time NZ will be forced to offer free education for Nurses and Drs and Teachers plus accomodation benefits and better essential service worker perks  because if we don’t they will all move to Australia! We will be forced to be active in protecting and nurturing these skill sets! FINALLY!



China – The intense resentment treating our people like second class Australian Citizens can’t stand if there is an identified common enemy. That these long standing issues between our two nations are being sorted immediately is a signal to China that NZ and Australia are one.

501 crime syndicates – This new relationship between Australia and NZ is seeing an enormous clamp down of 501 deportees coming into NZ. These 501 have formed crime syndicates prepared to use far greater violence than the domestic gangs, that is why we have seen a surge in gang violence as the 501 syndicates fight for marketing turf as they bring in a cheaper, more pure meth from their South American Cartel links. The new relationship means fewer recruits for the 501 syndicates.

400 000 Kiwis used as bargaining chips – The biggest losers here are the 400 000 Kiwis who should have been eligible to get on with their lives without being penalised by the Australians. Their well being has been used as bargaining chip between interests they could never influence.

New Zealand as Australia’s lifeboat – The reality of Climate Change means Australia will be scorched from the face of the planet as temperatures become greater than even Australians can tolerate. How NZ deals with the inevitable stampede over the Tasman to NZ as frying Australians flee will be our greatest future challenge.



The danger with AUKUS is that the nuclear submarines armed with hyper sonic missiles are a first strike platform. Chinese Hawks will be arguing confrontation now before Australia has that first strike capacity.

The Americans are pimping war in 2 years.

For NZ and Australia to suddenly find solutions to previous deep seated relationship problems like the 501 deportees and 400 000 Kiwis being treated like second class citizens, suggests something far larger is happening ion the background.

I believe that NZ needs to have an urgent discussion on the geopolitical machinations occurring because the drum beat for war is getting louder.

We must not get drawn into the vortex of another American war.

We must not be tied economically to China.

We must seriously consider the Māori Party Neutrality stand while dramatically increasing our GDP military spend to 5%.

NZ is friend to all, enemy to none. We are a nation that believes in peace and we should use all the diplomacy at our disposal to work for peace, but we can no longer pretend that our region is benign and we need to protect our realm from Antartica to the Cook Islands, and Niue.

We have watched with horror as America lied about the Gulf of Tonkin and Weapons of Mass Destruction to start wars and I’m damned if I’ll watch another generation of kids go feed another American war, but equally I don’t want China’s authoritarian regime having any control over us either.

Neutrality, as envisioned by the Māori Party this election, is the honourable position to take, but it requires a serious increase in military spending.

Above all we must have an independent foreign policy and we need focus on these issues now because corporate interests who trade in the weapons of violence want conflict in the Pacific.



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  1. The world, and more importantly, the pangolins, will not be safe until there is a North China Sea, even if it’s a gigantic, irradiated lake.

  2. The Aus subs aren’t going to have nukes, so I’m not sure what you are on about with talk of ‘first strike’ capacity. In which possible scenario are conventional Aussie sub launched missiles worth China sparking a war in the Pacific? There

    • They won’t have nukes on board….right up until the time they do.
      Same with our Frigates. They have the Harpoon missile system which has various warhead options, including a tactical nuke.

    • I don’t know what fit out the AUKUS subs are getting but the Virginia class is getting hypersonic missile capable Zumwalt class vertical launchers. Of course the kangaroo huggers will probably push them out of the torpedo tube. Testing was supposed to begin next year. U.S. army already has a hypersonic battery.

      • Sam, the US has no hypersonics and won’t for the decade or so it will take to develop after this fiasco…
        AGM-183 ARRW
        Developed by Lockheed Martin, the boost-glide vehicle is propelled to a maximum speed of more than Mach 5 by a rocket motor before gliding toward its target. The program was cancelled in March 2023 after multiple failed tests.

        • You shouldn’t believe everything you hear about U.S military tech. Literally every publication is oh it’s terrible. It’s the worst. All I’ll say is Russia is also demonised for having the worst G20 economy and there armies on the brink of collapse yet they still field 5th gen fighters and hyper missiles for years

    • Look Beijing has the same information I do if not better. Imagine if China put hypersonic capable nuclear subs off of Americas coast. America would invade. And China will not sit back and go yes masta. The situation we’re in has to be dealt with the seriousness it poses.

      • China does not have a capable navy, they have a comical prototype aircraft carrier and some piece of old junk bought off the Russians they have been modifying and playing around with. China has no ability to project power more than 1000kms or so on the high seas.

        China is imploding. They have been the poster child of Globalisation, we are returning to regionalism. China will not survive – demographic collapse, energy scarcity, huge food importer.

    • nicko, what is the actual point of nuclear subs that don’t have nuclear capability?

      answers on a postcard to the usual address.

  3. China is on the verge of imploding. It is no threat. Need to focus on Climate Apocalypse – seen the Global SST charts lately? And the SARS2 pandemic mass disabling event everyone pretends does not exist.

    • I think China still has at least 200 million people to raise out of poverty and that’s not including the Stan Nations on there eastern border. That’s why they rebuilt the silk road with rail. Next will be India and the African continent

      • They create vast amounts of state debt to pour vast amounts of concrete to gin up GDP.

        But not allowed to build vanity super skyscrapers anymore just too obviously wasteful, though they look awesome and great optics for propaganda.

        They wont be “raising” 200 million out of poverty via a high value added superconductor industry will they Sam? Haha.

        India, China, Africa are rapidly becoming uninhabitable for virtually any earth life forms. Why are you not paying any attention to the ongoing Climate Chaos in those regions?

        • China already raised 800 million out of poverty in the last 20 years. I’m confused why you would mention superconductors in the same breath. China is many things but reliant on on but but it’s difficult to see how 900 million people dose not mean “uninhabitable.”

  4. Australian nuclear submarines won’t precipitate a war. The US already has 70 submarines of the same type, plus a massive surface Navy. The risk of war between China and the US is greatly overstated. I simply can’t see two nuclear armed nations going to war against each other. Tensions, yes; military incidents, possible; but outright war, no.

    As for your ongoing solution of New Zealand neutrality, how long do you think the new dual citizenship deal would survive? New Zealand actually has an alliance treaty with Australia, the Canberra Pact. Tearing that up would put New Zealand and Australian economic and political relationships into a deep freeze.

    • When we say neutrality we don’t mean security from Australia. We mean security with the south Pacific which presumably means Australia as well. All we are saying is we won’t get into another WMD which hunt terrorising poor dirt farmers. Show us or the PM or whoever the evidence for a declaration of war first, and I’m sure if someone is building nazi death camps we’ll be over

    • Wayne, I’m wondering how you see NZ and Australia navigating our trade relationships with China (and by consequence BRICS which will pretty soon encompass all non Western nations)?
      Can we survive the next decade economically if we are perceived by China to be in an enemy camp?

      • And we’ve got to distinguish commercial decision from military decisions. Commercial decision are just embassy jobs handing out money. It doesn’t inform defence on proper force structure.

      • The US is also deeply enmeshed in China. Many of the US premier companies have their largest production sites in China.

        I do think that New Zealand should continue arguing the point about reducing tensions. Both Helen Clark and John Key already do this. Many in the US don’t welcome hearing that, but that should not deter us.

        China knows perfectly well that our prime security relationships are with Australia, the US and the UK. They won’t expect that to change. Within that security grouping we should continue to be a moderate voice. Albanese also gets this. It doesn’t mean that Albanese is going to abandon AUKUS, but his public statements are much more reasonable than those of Morrison.

        • That sounds reasonable Wayne unless push comes to shove and it becomes very binary. I’m guessing you are really hoping that the neocons will be sidelined in the US before they push China too far.

          • 400 hundred million can not take and hold a population of 1 billion.

            The D Day landing was pure luck. We had an industrialised unsinkable carrier in Great Britain off Nazi Germany’s coast. Air and cloud cover and we were able to sneak an invasion force into France under cloud cover. You can sneak an invasion force with modern ships in under modern satellites. Even with an inferior air force China can still sink transport ships with planes and missiles.

            So we shouldn’t be building regiment style invasion forces rather smaller elite forces based around two battalions and an extremely well equipped nazy and air force.

  5. Any war involving China and America will involve New Zealand irrespective of neutrality or independence or what ever.

    When I first started reading about AI in 2018 they were no better than a pocket calculator. In the past six months the deep fakes coming out, you can tell they’re fake but in a year who’s to say someone makes a deep fake Prime Minister claiming have won the election and somehow gets on the six o’clock news even if the polls say he lost.

    China has the largest super computers and stock piles of microchips in the world. In 2 years I don’t think China will be occupiable.

    I think America and Australia contains China along its coast in a new cold war with naval / air skirmishes eventually leading to a hot war. If China doesn’t make a play for Taiwan first. As soon as China gets it’s 4 type 003 super aircraft carriers Taiwan just folds like Cuba. You just can’t defend against super carriers 40 miles from there the Chinese coast.

    Russia achieves military recapitalisation sooner. They won’t mind higher oil prices.

    France and Germany lose a bit of influence as America takes the lead on Nato.

    The Stan countries go to China.

    Romania creates a NATO-isk no Russian tank alliance.

    Australia is paying for Britain’s military recapitalisation with its 350 billion nuclear sub purchase.

    India, the African continent and the middle east have Thier own longstanding internal conflicts.

    NZDF needs a complete redesign from a continental military designed to fight a war in Europe to a marine expeditionary force designed to fight in the Pacific.

    In a new cold war I’m talking about Chinese military equipment showing up in places like The Solomon’s because we’re all lining up along the Chinese coast and have been for some time.

    Ideally Army switches from 105mm artillery to 155m. More Javelin anti tank missiles. New man portable anti air missiles like Australia’s RBS70 because presumably they still have the giraffe radar from the same maker. A new self propelled gun system, communications network and drones. More drones. Drop the two infantry battalions so the mounted riffles go from a company to a battalion.

    Navy gets two landing helicopter docks and attack helicopters to support the marine fighting force like the U.S. marines AHZ attack helicopter, four of them. Every other navy helicopter needs to be able to kill subs. Four frigates like the 6000 ton Dutch frigate the Absalon. 8 corvettes with vertical launch tubes and quad packed anti ship missiles and a hanger for sub killing helicopters. Get rid of the protector fleet, that was the minimum requirement and still NZDF was forced below it.

    Air force needs 14 vertical take off and landing F35B lightning. Could equally go with about 22 F-28 block3z and no electronic warfare planes. Airborne early warning patrol aircraft, electronic control aircraft. 2 more P8. 3 more C130s. Replace the business jets with 4 Kawasaki C2 airlifters. Probably another 6 King Airs. And another 10 NH90s.

    In the very long run (beyond 2040) neocolonialism will take a darker turn, as states with power projection capability take an increasingly heavy-handed approach in propping up the nominal governments of failed states in the South Pacific while corporations wring out the last dregs of resources to supply the bread and butter back home.

    • Interesting set of ideas. Your proposed defence force is beyond what we would do. I imagine it would cost 3% of GDP, double what we currently spend. However, a trimmed down version, without the F35’s or the 8 Corvettes, would be credible. Maybe 1.7 to 2% of GDP. In fact pretty close to what is being considered.

      • F35B is just my preference. At 5% GDP on defence the PM wouldn’t do that if we weren’t getting fast jets with at least the possibility of rescuing downed pilots hense the corvettes.

        At 3% it would be a different force structure again. Probably geared towards island hoping so something like 3 LHDs. I’d just prefer sinking enemy ships with planes and missiles rather than fighting land wars. At a population of 5 million New Zealand isn’t going to occupy a contested nation on land.

        We either get subs or fighter jets and I don’t won’t to squeeze the navy between the 3 largest sub forces in the world, Russia, China and America.

    • We currently have a hard time crewing our current ships, and all arms of our military are having issues retaining personnel, so where are we going to get the additional people for your expanded defence force? Same place we import all our other labour from? China & India maybe? The Philippines or Pacific nations?

      • Nuts and bolts arguments tend to confuse people. Straight away people come in saying well “how are we going to man this” which is basically “why do we need war fighting machines?” And no matter what information anti defence activists are given they’ll still throw themselves into the machine.

        Expanding The New Zealand Defence Force comes down to 3 main things (just so I don’t have to keep describing the whole situation).

        1. It’s wrong to allow people to die
        2. Climate Change and the Threat of Nuclear War threatens humanities existence
        3. Even if only one of these 3 reasons are true they stand independently as a true reason to expand The NZDF to meet the challenge.

        Our disagreement is that there’s some financial or manpower reason to not expand The NZDF.

        I’m saying that financial or manpower reasons is not a very good reason to limit the breadth and capabilities of the military.

        A good reason not to expand The New Zealand Defence Force would be a high school boy doesn’t want to join the military because he would then have to kill people in the defence of or promotion of nuclear war.

        Or he wants a better working life balance with better housing and education for his children and better food and so on.

        But our argument isn’t an argument for what is good and true for national security. Our disagreement is about a list of issues that has very few things in common with energy security, housing and water security and freedom to move and speak and our disagreement is around whether a population of 5 million can maintain a defense force of approximately 30,000 personal.

        With a population of 5 million the Dutch maintains a defence force of about 40,000 personal and Singapore maintains a defence force of about 100,000 personal.

        The concept that I’m having issues with is how anti defence force activists believe that it’s rational for a population of 5 million (New Zealand) to maintain a defence force of about 8,000 personal or less and with non combat intentions.

  6. So I get the suspicion of the US but what was the alternative? While the US was disengaged from the Pacific is it disputed that China were behaving like the Pacific is their future oyster? The likes of the Philippines and Vietnam watching China help themselves to the Spratleys etc would not be so naive to think it’s all just happy economic trade. You don’t see the US sending individuals to join the two main political parties in NZ.

  7. Martyn – Nice reporting, and a good deal between Kiwis and Aussies…might have to built another prison, or two for the 501s in NZ.

  8. The decision to turn Kiwis into second class citizens in Australia was pure revolting politcing led by National Party pin up boy, John Howard. We were painted as “dole bludgers” and John sleighed that beast. It was all bullshit of course but it turned us into cheap labour whilst paying full tax. And it had the added consequence of driving an ever bigger wedge needlessly between both countries and the conflict rared its head often.

    It is a good thing and well done Jacinda Ardern for righting that wrong by using her charm and her then pull to make this happen.

    I don’t see it as a grand conspiracy of the US and Australia as Labour under Bill Shorten promised similar before China started getting all macho!

    What it will be for the ALP is a major vote winner, where as the creepy weird Peter Dutton would be a major threat to New Zealanders in Aussie. Albo probably couldn’t resist those voter riches anymore!

    • Seems like John is a dodgy name in both Oz and NZ/AO. Thinking sad. Need a humorous rise. I like the one about the mixed-up signwriter, painted, ‘Honest Car – Used John Dealer’.

    • Remember, one of the reasons Howard tried to disincentivise kiwi immigration was that our immigration policy at the time was providing a back door entry into Australia for asian migrants (after 3 years in NZ they got an NZ passport and then could migrate to Australia). Given the large number of Hong Kong /China and Taiwanese immigrants in the 1990’s (Hong Kong handover, perceived threat of China taking back Taiwan) who did use NZ as a transit (along with other immigrants), it wasn’t surprising. Immigration policy has always been a political football in this country and integral to inflating the ‘positive’ economic stats, but has been abominable as far as planning and thought is concerned.
      The real reason for the US beating the war drums and using the ‘you’re either with us or against us’ message to western governments, is because they are sensing a strong possibility of their impending decline as ‘world leader’. China, Russia, Saudi, Iran, India, Brazil et al are establishing an alternative to the US dollar for World trade- this will be devastating for the US, and is the elephant in the room. Consider that much of the US major manufacturing is offshore (ah, China?) – will the US really demand that their companies return operations to the US? Remember, Trump saying the same when he was campaigning for President – never happened, because they can’t do it! If you look at history, and more specifically, recent history (last 150 years or so) it is clear that US imperialism is frequent and ubiquitous- involving invasion/occupation- while China is not. Our greatest threat is the US, and especially if we decided to go ‘neutral’.The threat from China is financial, if we continue to ‘put all our eggs in one basket’.

  9. We need to be on the side of the BRIICS+ because that is the future. Otherwise, we can kiss goodbye to $20b of export trade and a slowed $18b worth of imports.

    We’ll be dead in the water before we’re dead in the water. Even though we’re flooded already literally and sitting at water level metaphorically, financially, economically, politically and we have a lot of fuckwits onboard that we should tip over the side.

    War isn’t the solution to anything! And we don’t need to get involved in their shite.

    Need to break those old colonial chains an cast them off. The best thing we can do is ask JK Rowling to borrow H Potters old Cloak of Invisibility! Throw that over us and hey presto! Nobody will know that we’re here!

  10. The decision to turn Kiwis into second class citizens in Australia was pure revolting politcing led by National Party pin up boy, John Howard. We were painted as “dole bludgers” and John sleighed that beast. It was all bullshit of course but it turned us into cheap labour whilst paying full tax. And it had the added consequence of driving an ever bigger wedge needlessly between both countries and the conflict rared its head often.

    It is a good thing and well done Jacinda Ardern for righting that wrong by using her charm and her then pull to make this happen.

    I don’t see it as a grand conspiracy of the US and Australia as Labour under Bill Shorten promised similar before China started getting all macho!

    What it will be for the ALP is a major vote winner, where as the creepy weird Peter Dutton would be a major threat to New Zealanders in Aussie. Albo probably couldn’t resist those voter riches anymore!

  11. The NZ-Aussie citizenship deal should include those with Australian convictions who have been deported to New Zealand. These people should have the right to live in their home country and the country responsible for their upbringing, Australia. Come on Chippy and Albo, let those with conviction settle in Australia.

  12. Nice to see some attention to defense. Defense seems necessary to prevent others using the pacific as an undersea mine with some marine species to exploit to extinction while they are at it. It is puzzling why most of the Green movement don’t seem interested.

    No one will win an election promising a 5% GDP spend – which I agree would be a minimum for independence from allies. As for a shopping list of expensive gear – who will use the equipment? How about a first step of keeping existing staff by improving pay? In the meantime, NZDF is shrinking by the day.

  13. There will be no between the West and China. Why would the Chinese go to war with 1) NZ, its biggest supplier of dairy products, 2) Australia, its biggest supplier of minerals and 3) the USA, its biggest market for electronic goods.

  14. I think we should honour this past great Australian who epitomises so much that is good in Oz. RIP Barry Humphries You stretched our heart-strings and lampooned us in many guises so even the most po-faced ended up laughing not knowing it was at an image of their own type.
    Opposition leader Peter Dutton said the country had “lost its finest cultural raconteur”, while former British prime minister Boris Johnson described Humphries as “one of the greatest ever Australians”.

    Sir Les representing Australia on Brit TV with Parky. –

  15. Containing China is a myth, The Chinese have built infrastructure throughout asia/Europe/M.E that it can’t be contained.

    Russia & China built and are building more Gas and oil pipeline project from Siberia to China. The pipeline was filled with gas in October 2019. Deliveries to China started on 2 December 2019. Gas supply to China from the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline reached 4.1 billion cubic meters in 2020, 10.4 bcm in 2021 and 15 bcm in 2022. For 2023, volumes are expected to reach 22 bcm.

    China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has discovered a new oil and gas field in the Xinjiang region. The new find is located in the Shunbei area of the Tarim Basin. Sinopec is one of the largest oil and gas producers in China. The company expects the discovery to host around 100 million tonnes of oil equivalent. In 2016, the company discovered the Shunbei field in Xinjiang. Last year, the field’s annual oil output and gas productions were around one million tonnes and 350 million cubic metres respectively.

    the Gwadar ports west of Karachi Pakistan. For China, the proposed CPEC route will offer the shortest possible access to the Arabian Sea. The port is just outside the Gulf of Oman after the Strait of Hormuz built by the Chinese. You have to realize why China has been successful in fermenting Peace arrangement’s between Iran & Saudi Arabia because its in their best interest to make this work. They have found alternatives to the malacca Straight’s.

    Russia & China aren’t concerned to much about global warming because in the event another trading corridor and oil explorations opens up that Russia will control which makes the Suez canal & the Malacca straight’s obsolete.

  16. We don’t have sovereignty, independence and so on. We have hitched our wagon to the war machine so we will – continue – to do as they say.

    How on earth did we friggin get here, how on earth did Australia get to be an even more obedient follower of the war machine than we are is what I would like to know?

    • Barry Humphries was apparently also a father so that is encouraging to the distaff side. And went over well in Oz which is so permeated with masculinity that the only females they can cope with are men pretending to be women? Wrong?

      Humphries also had a go at the testosterone-soaked Oz (and NZ?) young man with Barry McKenzie.
      Barry McKenzie › wiki › Barry_McKenzie
      Barry McKenzie is a fictional character created in 1964 by the Australian comedian Barry Humphries for a comic strip, written by Humphries and drawn by New Zealand artist Nicholas Garland …

      The character was a parody of the boorish Australian overseas, particularly those residing in Britain – ignorant, loud, crude, drunk, and pugnacious – although McKenzie also proved popular with Australians because he embodied some of their positive characteristics: he was friendly, forthright, and straightforward with his British hosts, who themselves were often portrayed as stereotypes of pompous, arrogant, devious colonialists.[6]

      McKenzie frequently employs euphemisms for bodily functions or sexual allusions, one of the most well-known being “technicolour yawn” (vomiting). [7] The film popularised several Australian euphemisms and slang terms which are still used today in the Australian vernacular (such as “point Percy at the porcelain”, “sink the sausage”, “pillow-biter” [homosexual] and “flash the nasty”). [2] Some of the sayings were invented by Humphries, while other terms were borrowed from existing Australian slang such as “chunder” [8] and “up shit creek” [9] (adopted by the Australian poetry magazine Shit Creek Review).
      Men at Work lead singer Colin Hay said that the lyrics for “Down Under” were inspired by the Barry McKenzie character…

      (And survived his own demon drink problem.)
      …Humphries’ alcoholism reached a crisis point during a visit home to Australia in the early 1970s. His parents finally had him admitted to a private hospital to ‘dry out’ when, after a particularly heavy binge, he was found bashed and unconscious in a gutter.[79] After that incident he abstained from alcohol completely and occasionally attended Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) meetings. He was one of the many friends who tried in vain to help Peter Cook, who himself eventually died from alcohol-related illnesses…

      Humphries was great at puncturing our pretensions, and no doubt his own.

  17. Well I suppose we’d be doing both countrys a favour. Increasing Australians IQ and ridding ourselves of pseudo intellectual academics who think they’re smarter than everyone else.

    As that saying goes…” Those who can’t. Teach.”

    • Unfortunately many of those relocating are health professionals, IT specialists, engineers, electricians, mechanics, machine operators, geologists, people with useful qualifications & skills, not the useless bludgers of Muldoon’s day. To be replaced here by whatever we can find (cheaply) on the international labour market.

  18. Is this your post about this? It reminds me of talkback after a famous sports victory. It would concentrate on some small negative.

    Learn to celebrate the good things. Not like the Left have much of that. This makes me happy.

    Like the fkn judgment against Fox News election lies and the police report on the parliament protests. You don’t have crazy sibs like me though.

    Don’t crap on your own feet going through the swamp of silly arse details

  19. This is an inducement for NZ to come on board with Australia and the US. If they didn’t, and once China tries to take Taiwan, they would swap the carrot for the stick.


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