Latest internal Talbot Poll is out and it keeps driving the points TDB has been making.
LABOUR: 37 (+4)
NATIONAL: 34 (-2)
ACT: 12 (+2)
GREENS: 8 (-3)
Māori Party: 3.2%
As TDB has been pointing out, deep electoral dynamics are coming into play.
Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis. The difference between Chippy and Jacinda is Chippy will throw a punch.
National have peaked with Luxon, they will be lucky to hold in the low 30s. Luxon is just bland wallpaper and National’s swing between ankle bracelets on 10 year olds and extra early childcare is too extreme. National can’t win back ACT voters without spooking the middle voter. The numbers are already being run for Nicola Willis, but her role in helping the Muller coup has left a large chunk of the Caucus against her so while there is momentum to dump Luxon, the factions inside National won’t budge.
Once National voters realise Luxon won’t win it for National, they will throw their Party vote to ACT. Expect ACT to hit 15%+.
The woke alienating middle class activism of the Green supporters has driven away voters. This result is barely above their 2020 election despite climate change being the preeminent issue of our time. They should be ashamed and embarrassed at their pitiful lack of progress. Breach a woke micro aggression and they crucify you, ask them to challenge the neoliberal economic hegemony and they can’t work out if they are Arthur or Martha, and even if they did it would take a 3 month hui to decide pronouns.
The Māori Party positivity and staunch economic policies are winning over voters and the more the Right attack co-governance, the more Māori non-vote starts voting.
As TDB has been arguing all year, the 2023 election will be decided by who Kiwis fear most, the far right National/ACT Government or the very left Labour/Green/Māori Party Government?
We are seeing the demographic realities of more Millennial and Gen X voters than Boomer voters at play now.
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Nats bleed to ACT, Greens bleed to Labour, essentially no change to previous Talbot poll that usually overstates the left.
Essentially no change, Hipkins still on honeymoon.
Pretty sure the Curia poll which usually overstates the right, showed Labour rising also.
Or were you just being selective on this poll only?
One things for certain, Luxons honeymoon is well over.
No, all polls are showing only slight shifting, left bloc vs right bloc is within the margin of error.
Try not being a blind partisan parrot some time and you might notice.
Compared to your blind right wing ideology bias I’ll take being a parrot than you being cuckoo.
What is so difficult about just accepting reality like a grownup.. Luxon was always a nothing, and it was always just a matter of time before everyone knew it.. BTW, this is the third poll I’ve seen in the last two weeks that are all within a percentage point of each other.. They can’t all be wrong… Aderns biggest failure from a political point of view is that she lacked the means to show Luxy boy (Keys “pet” name for him) up for what he was from day one.. It was obvious to me even before he got the job he has bow, that if it wasn’t for the fact that Key is still running the show, he wouldn’t have gotten within a bracelets broadcast range of leader..
I flew back to Auckland in February 2020, with Air NZ, and all I can say is the cost cutting methods, and lack of honesty or clarity when dealing with them (& hours on the plane without so much as a drink of water, because I wasn’t told that I had to pay extra for everything I consumed during the flight.. Of course, the fact that I only had my Australian bankcard with me, I couldn’t buy anything.. Ended up pinching a plastic cup, and getting a drink from the sink in the toilet.. What a fantastic job Luxyboy did in turning what was the only airline I would recommend, into a third class cattle transport, unless you’ve got the dosh for business/first class that is.. If National have run of bullshit luck, and het elected, who do you think will really be making the decisions? Joe Biden, through his mouthpiece Key, that’s who.. And we can all look forward to being placed deliberately into the sandwich as the meat, and offered either China, or the USA, as a forward base for the next phase of The lunatic Biden, or the despot Xi Jinping, Depending on who gets here first in numbers… Trying to disseminate over trivialities only convinces more than just me, that we are a sitting duck if NZ is both foolish, bigoted, and stupid enough to put a party that belongs to 19th century colonialism…. Oh well, if kiwis show themselves to be as incurably stupid, self centered, and delusional regarding the utter lack of importance attached to NZ for the last three decades, then I suppose they must want a new “Daddy”, as uncle Charles isn’t really cool hey?
So you want people to take you seriously but at the same time tell us you cannot read the conditions of sale for an airline ticket .I find it hard to believe that you could not get water on your flight wothout payment but will take your word for it .How were they dishonest . Perhaps I am just lucky but I have never found Air NZ less than professional in their dealing with me .Like most I dislike their high prices but the planes are full so price has not effected their patronage.
Glad to know the party I am involved in fills you in on the dealings at head office and how much John Key drives the engine.
Polls showing people being sucked in by a pie eating happy face are no surprise as they were also sucked in by jacindas big smile. This is labours tactics in ejection year I.e smile, do nothing, smile some more, pretend you are dropping all policies, smile and eat pie, send Mahuta to China so she can’t say anything, pie, dump health chair you didn’t like, smile, say nothing of interest, don’t dump ex Labour Party friends in high places, smile, drop a naughty mp down the list so they aren’t noticed rather than dump them, smile, promote someone who smiles to police minister role, smile, take them to pie shop, keep doing nothing, hope to get elected and take all bad policies back off the shelf, don’t deliver much.
Polls showing people being sucked in by a pie eating happy face are no surprise as they were also sucked in by jacindas big smile. This is labours tactics in ejection year I.e smile, do nothing, smile some more, pretend you are dropping all policies, smile and eat pie, send Mahuta to China so she can’t say anything, pie, dump health chair you didn’t like, smile, say nothing of interest, don’t dump ex Labour Party friends in high places, smile, drop a naughty mp down the list so they aren’t noticed rather than dump them, smile, promote someone who smiles to police minister role, smile, take them to pie shop, keep doing nothing, hope to get elected and take all bad policies back off the shelf, don’t deliver much.
Labour is going to hope that Luxon stays exactly where he is. He’s there best chance of reelection.
What’s the difference between woke incompetent Hipkins and woke incompetent Luxon? nothing. I suspect national, if they actually want to win, will parachute a pretty female in 6 weeks before the election. The standard had been set, you have to look good on the cover of the women’s weekly to win the election in NZ. Or at least stand for something.
Dare I say it, NZ needs a Trump
“Dare I say it, NZ needs a Trump”
You really are deluded.
Well 8% still want the Greens, so I’m not the only one
The more I hear from the Maori Party the more racist they appear and NZ will become more divided if they gain power in any way .
No wonder Labour and Hipkins are doing well as due to the cyclone they have daily exposure plus they have just increased superconducting benefits by a large amount .They’ve trying to sell this as something they as a party have done but really the amount is dictated by law .If they had not caused rampant inflation then the amount would have been less . As more light shines on this party the public will turn away from them Just in the last 2 days we have seen the racism from OT the appointing of a very junior Minister to Police the ill,advised appointment of an exlobbist to lead Hipkins team teachers striking the list goes on plus the fact fewer and fewer people want the Greens anywhere near power especially under their current leadership.
The
@Trevor: Inflation is happening all around the world (for reasons we’re all aware of) but Labour is the cause of ‘rampant’ inflation in NZ? Are you really saying that?
I don’t understand why people make such lame arguments on a site like this where people are better informed than the average punter. I don’t mind right wingers who want to have an honest debate but this is just a repetition of National Party talking points
Aaron I know some inflation was imported but inflation has also been caused by Labour’s poor control of the money market which caused homes to rise by ridiculous amounts giving people a glow of being wealthy and this allowed prices to climb along with wages . One reason for this was that they extended Orr s control of the countries finances to make him responsible for both high employment and low inflation. It has proved to be a false dream as now the breaks are on Orr has stated he needs to see 70 thousand more unemployed to drive down wages and inflation. Both public and business confidence is now low and it is going to be a bumpy ride for awhile with an election thrown in just to add to the drama.
Luxon is naive. He’s fallen down the Simon Bridges National party leadership style of blah blah blah Labour this, blah blah blah Labour that. Constant whining when he could have pushed alternative policy through. We see that here with many contributors to this site, the worst being Bob the first. There could be multiple reason for Luxon’s demise, poor advice, bland personality or simply National have no alternative policy. I’d suggest all three.
Hey ADQRWB
Bert will have your guts for being a coward and hiding behind a nom de plume. He’s very consistent in calling out all the cowards. I quite like your short and sweet nickname. And yes, Luxon is toast I agree….unless Labour fuck up.
Ohhh c’mon Kraut….you know fine we’ll Bert only has a problem with a ‘nom de plume’ when it’s a comment/poster from the right of politics.
And naming himself ‘Bert’ isn’t exactly identifying himself (but better than his previous of ‘Jaci dafan’
Love it!
The coward Kraut and dumb Bob duo have been replaced with John Keys love child Im right, always wrong, aka Whale Oil.
The Natz Party demographic – pale, stale and increasingly frail males (like me) is rapidly dying out.
Unless the party reinvents itself (and given its tunnel vision, that seems unlikely) then the Natz share of the vote is going to become smaller and smaller.
As the climate crisis deepens, more and more people will turn to the collective response represented by TMP and the Greens and also Labour. Individual greed will look less and less inviting, so the Act vote will diminish or wither away.
Of course, there will always be die-hards who cherish their selfishness in the face of impending doom and these nutcases will continue to vote for the far right.
But never enough for the right to ever get back in control of this country.
Greens too interested in identity politics to do basic things in the environment. And Labour are just as bad as National now, when it comes to environment and climate change.
Black, ‘stinking’ wastewater dumped near Waikato wetland – and it’s totally legal
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/131549034/black-stinking-wastewater-dumped-near-waikato-wetland–and-its-totally-legal
It’s slim picking of any stand out or even relevant party to the problems of 2023 and I’m not sure the most important things going forward in NZ is related to Posy Parker and apartheid of service/funding in NZ.
I think the recent floods and cyclones who kill all nationals equally and both rich and poor show what should be relevant to NZ.
And it seems that kiwis don’t fear act as much as they fear the greens . Go figure.
Why should they fear ACT? On the other hand, there is plenty to fear about the Greens, as Martyn points out.
I am not the one talking about fearing a government. Our hosts is asking if we fear N/A more then L/G and at the moment it appears that everyone fears the green. Go figure.
I find the fear of the Greens quite reasonable. No doubt I’ll see a few from the Green fringes when I go to hear Posie Parker.
Kiwis don’t fear, they are giving their props to ACT. The left fears.
Over 90 % fear ACT. The far right and Qanon vote ACT.
“Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis.”
What has he delivered exactly? He was in charge of education for five years and the sector is a debacle. I think he’s popular because he’s not Ardern. That tells us a lot!
He’s delivered plenty. Your laziness knows no bounds.
Luxons unpopularity is because he’s not Key. That tells us a lot!
OK so name something he’s delivered….
https://www.labour.org.nz/policy
There, not to hard for you, unless yo are simple Andrew.
In your own words please explain what the government did that benefitted everyone. Cause that Labour PR bullshit is not cutting it.
And your bullshit right wing bias is simply laughable.
Any examples of what Hipkins has delivered? Apart from a dishonest history curriculum, and maatauranga in science classes? And then there’s the new maths strategy, featuring this gem:
“Being numerate in Aotearoa New Zealand today involves an understanding of diverse cultural perspectives, privileging te ao Māori and Pacific worldviews.”
Check it out here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjbm7vQoO79AhU9plYBHc5eCtUQFnoECAgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.education.govt.nz%2Fpublic%2FDocuments%2FMinistry%2FChanges-in-education%2FELS-0778-Insights-that-informed-LCMS_web2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw014TarLvcpSNUfSSenV3kE
“What has he delivered exactly?”
Lot’s actually. In his various capacities:
1. Lots of false claims. (Looting, tax take as a % of GDP, Charlotte bellis, the women who visited Northland).
2. Lots of wasted money on the Unitec merger.
3. Record levels of crime.
4. Plummeting educational standards.
That’s just off the top of my head.
People vote with their wallets. Lefties, get your cheap bubbly now while still can afford it. And celebrate now while you still can.
I think that only some people vote with their wallet, T.K.W.W. I think that tribalism is a bigger driver. As a company representative I used to call on small businesses around the North Island. Over a period of years I noticed that trade for those small businesses was always better when we had a Labour administration. These were not people selling to the wealthy. Most of their customers were of modest means. Yet all these small business owners voted National, and assumed that because I was white and had my own business that I did also. I thought that was rather odd. After reflecting on it for years I came to the conclusion that people vote for the Party that they feel identifies with the tribe to which they see themselves belonging.
Yes you could be right TR.
But these days there is so little difference between the tribes, the wallet muight do the choosing. Wait until after the budget and closer to the election. National and Luxon will go apeshit with new policies and pointing out labour’s failures.
Many boomer funerals assist positive change in the Parliamentary political scene (some boomers endure elder poverty and have been left battlers all their lives, so lets not totally stereotype). 2026 is when new gens influence will be most apparent. The political priority for 2023 is simple–Natzo/ACT must be kept from office by all means necessary to leave space for that generational change to occur organically.
If the filthy tories were to attain office in October they will swing a spiked toxic wrecking ball through the NZ working class and alienated which will be hard to recover from.
Vote Green or Te Pāti Māori.
ewww…..nah. Everyone but Green or TPM. I mean seriously why on earth would anyone vote for either party.
The filthy Tories won’t be elected October, no chance. The pathetic righties yearn for the almighty dollar, SUV’s and slumdog low wage economy. Actually that is always an election winner for the rabid right.
What you’re saying here is that you believe the majority of “new gens” will vote left without any reference to any study that may indicate same….
Nuance does not appear to be a strong point for you.
“2026 is when new gens influence will be most apparent” is rather open ended really, there could be a whole bunch of young tories in there…the key thing is we are in the midst of a generational handover. It is an old right wing trope that old trends will be maintained among younger voters.
Wrong, this is the digital generation that see the world in a very different way.
A recent indicator of how younger voters may go was the US mid-term elections, they helped save the day to a large extent for the Democrats after months of media blitz about the Red Wave.
Are you saying the working class families who have been hit with 7% inflation are still happy with the direction Labour are going which would continued unabated but just a bigger racist content if Greens and Maori Party get voted in and join forces .
You are usually more coherent Trev. I am saying just what I said–which translates to using the MMP system to deliver a Labour led Govt. with an active rather than passive strong from Green & Te Pāti Māori.
You may be surprised I was not broken hearted when Labour /Greens won the 2017 election
as I thought that the environment could be better looked after but after 3 years I was very disappointed on that front plus I was there when Marama Davidson seemed to blame old white men for the Chch massacre. Would they do any better this time as they seem less united less focused and no real sparkle plus I wonder how well they get on with the TPM than they did with NZ First as I have not seen any joint statement to date
Racism is the ACT party and if you think global inflation is of Labours making, I’ve got a Simon Bridges, bridges to sell you.
Pleased to see people waking up to this pseudo Green Party.
Does anybody know the odds for a Hung Parliament yet?
0%. Odds are fuck all. No bookie will even humour you with odds. Now move on.
about 50/50
Excellent.
Blusterpher Luxon makes an announcement about an announcement. Still a foggy from covid? Lol
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/am-host-ryan-bridge-grills-christopher-luxon-on-national-s-education-policy.html
“Chippy has become incredibly popular because his delivery over ideology has won over many Kiwis and they trust him in a crisis. The difference between Chippy and Jacinda is Chippy will throw a punch.”
I think he just seems refreshingly normal
Yeah some time back I predicted Willis would replace the volunteer at Mc Donald’s. As polling day gets closer and their numbers stagnate or drop the pressure will be huge to make a change. Willis can communicate and get attention but that’s about it but that’s all that matters now in this current political environment.
” the very left Labour/Green/Māori Party Government? ”
I am failed to be convinced that is what we will end up with basing that on the ” transformation “( sarc) of the last six years , the Greens total capitulation which is now complete and just how much will TMP demand for their support when it comes to our current economic direction and asking Grant and Chipkins to take the rough edges off unregulated capitalism ?
Maybe Bomber you know something we don’t.
What I have always said. ACT 16 % NZ First 5.5% Nat and Labour fighting over the middle block.
more goat entrails on the TDB kitchen floor
Polls schmolls. The only thing up about seymour and his pathetic act party is up roger douglas’s Y fronts elastic.
I see Bob above is pleased to see people waking up. ( Does that mean he watches you while you sleep!?) MMP which is green, act, Maori, top … did I forget any other of the nuts ? Is a chaff thing spread out to distract and confuse those with no imagination to believe they, MMP, are potent choices when they are not. Neoliberalism Kiwi-Style is still a virulent political viral infection running amok within our small-population country with large amounts of farmer cash sloshing about.
Look. It’s this simple. Chose a party. Any party. They’re all the same so it doesn’t really matter which one and simply make that party do what it’s told by you and you, the voter. Not by politically savvy sociopaths who create opportunities daily to steal money from your pockets.
There is a problem with that however. We, the people, couldn’t make a fist without diagrams and detailed instructions. Therefore, we’re fucked.
Royal Commission of Inquiry please. We need urgent help. I’m serious. Write a letter to the Crown.
“Dear King Charles. Help!? We have tons of money yet our society’s in free fall. Foreign owned banks steal billions off us in net profits annually at the rate of $180.00 a second and there are nine multi billionaires and we don’t know how they are that. Yours sincerely an AO/NZ citizen.” See? Not that difficult is it?
When are the Nats going to wake up and realise that Luxon is an anchor around their neck . . just round up a bunch of farmers + urban NZ European and Asians and get them to pick whose face they like the most from a line-up of current Nat MP’s.
They don’t even need to speak necessarily (although that might allow a Simon Bridges 2.0 to slip through)?
The country learnt their lesson from the atrocities Key inflicted on us, they won’t make the same mistake with Luxon.
In fact Bert I don’t think the country learnt jack shit from o’l crocodile smile Key and would re-elect him in a heartbeat.
But, but, but, if you listen to Im right, aka Whale Oil, Key did no wrong.
Yup.
Key would kick Chippy’s butt – and invite Bert to kiss it afterwards.
I wouldn’t be able to with you up there Krauty.
Luxon had better start firing some shots or Willis will do it for him. I think the Greens are toast, Labour will suck up all of their Oxygen. Maybe a cup of tea with Winston to head off the Maori party and you will have a center right government.
NZ First is at 3% … forgot to mention that Martyn…
yes Nathan – a salient point completely omitted.
inconvenient truth.
Aaron I know some inflation was imported but inflation has also been caused by Labour’s poor control of the money market which caused homes to rise by ridiculous amounts giving people a glow of being wealthy and this allowed prices to climb along with wages . One reason for this was that they extended Orr s control of the countries finances to make him responsible for both high employment and low inflation. It has proved to be a false dream as now the breaks are on Orr has stated he needs to see 70 thousand more unemployed to drive down wages and inflation. Both public and business confidence is now low and it is going to be a bumpy ride for awhile with an election thrown in just to add to the drama.
Do you think throwing people out of work (and into poverty) to keep inflation down is acceptable?
Certainly not with the massive increase in population millsy which was National party policy since 2010.
Now its way harder to control inflation.
I would rather have rampant inflation than no payrises, mass unemployment, and cuts to public services, like the above commentors want.
Under ACT/National, workers will not get payrises. Ever.
Luxon is just Key with less cheese.
And hair
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