The possible surprises of the 2023 election

2023 NZ MMP Parliament

I think the emergence of a well funded astro turf antivax, climate denial, Treaty denial, redneck-banjo-twanging-crystal-Karen-and-the-evangelical-wrathful-Gods-glee-club online radio station is the latest symptom that this is going to be a very weird election which will throw up all sorts of fascinating machinations.

Last election Polls underestimated Labour by 4 points and over estimated National support by almost 6 points!

Let’s look at some of the surprises the Election machinations may throw up:

Māori Party Surprise – The new rule to allow people to enrol on Election Day means almost 65 000 extra votes will be counted rather than disqualified which will have a very large impact on the Māori Electorates. The Māori Party has a chance of winning 3 electorates plus a 5% Party share with policy that pulls over pakeha beneficiaries, pakeha working poor and Pakeha Leftists. International neutrality, a Financial Transaction Tax and GST off food are all policies that could easily gain traction well beyond a Māori constituency. The Māori Party could bring in as many MPs as the Greens.

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TOP coat tails in – Raf’s chance of winning Ilam has to be a serious consideration this election. TOPs continued 2% Party vote would bring in 2 MPs off the List as well as Raf as Leader, TOP could end up being the King maker.


Greens stagnate – The bitterness from being locked out of their home country has not been factored into the overseas vote that has traditionally benefitted Labour or the Greens and may well favour the more reactionary message of ACT this election. The lack of policy traction, the total capitulation to alienating woke dogma and identity politics activists talking over all the internal mechanisms of candidate election and policy control sees the Greens stall and they might actually get less than the polled in 2020. They might pick up Wellington Central, might have a chance in Rongotai. Chloe’s most recent interviews against Brooke Van Veldon on TVNZ however suggests Chloe might be too burnt out to take Auckland Central again.  They have been dreadful interviews and Chloe doesn’t;t look like she knows how to argue outside the Green Party Echo Bunker.


Another Climate Event – The problem for National and ACT is that they want to constantly cut the State back so that there is no revenue to redistribute in the first place. This deregulation free market small Government bullshit only works if people aren’t sprinting towards the State in fear for protection. More climate events will drive the narrative that there needs to be vastly more capacity in the State and that the rich should pay for it. Another climate event demands a bigger State response, you can’t cut taxes while the country is drowning!

NZ First cock blocked by Climate Change – National was preparing to fight the election against Jacinda and then Chippy stepped in. NZ First was going to fight the election on ‘da-Maaaaaaaaris-is-getting-too-much’ but Cyclone Gabrielle stepped in. There is more of an argument now than ever before to build resilience into our provincial economic zones, what frustrated NZ First previously was the State’s snail pace process that cock blocked everything NZ First wanted to support (except for cameras on fishing boats, that looked like money well spent by the industry on that front). Rebuilding the Provinces is the perfect wink nod money for policy stuff NZ First excels at, but because they’ve spent so much energy on plotting a ‘da-Maaaaaaaaris-is-getting-too-much’ campaign,  they don’t know how to respond to events dear boy because Cyclone Gabrielle changes everything politically this year. NZ First may well slide under 5% as the Feral antivax, climate denying, Treaty denying extremists coalesce elsewhere.


Feral AntiVax, climate denying, Treaty denying extremist online radio –The sudden emergence of these feral lunatics on all one platform funded by dark money is the exact sort of political mutations you are seeing on the Right in Canada, America, Australia and the UK right now. The extremism of CounterSpin is too radioactive to become populist for the interests who want to influence the election, but the Voices For Freedom crystal Karen antivaxxers merged with the climate denying corporate farming lobby and the Treaty denial cheerleaders can masquerade as a news station with the very clear editorial desire to manipulate and sow as much misinformation and disinformation as they can ferment.

The sub 5% Qanon Sovereign Sheriff vote has no where to collectively go that will give them representation and the right wing grifters behind Reality Check Radio mistake Chantelle Baker’s social media popularity on a global platform for domestic support.

It’s called the Billy TK Social Media Fallacy.

This far right voice concentrated now gives momentum to a feral political polarisation that could seed domestic terrorism.

We had all hoped Ardern stepping down would take some of the extremism of hate out of the election, but personal hurt of being alienated in their own home has engraved a cult like malice in the hearts of the antivax movement.

It’s not the system they seek to change or even policy implementation, they want to punish us for allowing them to be alienated in the first place.

This is a political revenge vendetta and they are motivated to influence whatever chaos they can. That is the stated aims of Voices for Freedom.


Buckle up, this election is going to get weird.

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  1. Don’t mention the hundreds of thousands of non-citizen voters upending the apple cart… because… foresight?

    • Looks like you have beaten this drum to death Castro….same as you did with ‘civil war’ posts that became boring, your xenophobic posts are already boring!
      What’s your next drum to beaten?
      Vegans should be deported…
      Cyclists should be imprisoned…
      Anyone over 65 should be euthanised…
      You are an angry wee man, with chips in both shoulders!

  2. I think the main reason why this coming election might be very different from usual is because almost uniquely in my experience, almost everyone I speak to is thoroughly disillusioned with every existing party in parliament. This is right across the political spectrum L and R. And no matter what side of the mandate/lockdown debate you are on, one thing we could probably all agree on is that it has been extremely polarising and stirred up strong emotions on both sides.

    I drove from HB to Auckland yesterday (and I mean all of yesterday, with the diversions and road works it took 11 hours!!!) and saw many anti 3 waters signs, and also a surprising number of signs advocating for the new Democracy NZ party. None for Labour or National. What this suggests to me is that more people than usual are becoming politically motivated, but this new group are unlikely to be voting for the traditional Labour vs National choices.

  3. While we, the people, continue to not comprehend the roll we should take in regard to our politics, voting remains a worthless custom. Why do you think voting isn’t mandatory yet enrolment is? It’s a bit like Morris Dancing while suffering from diarrhoea. A grand spectacle with no real function.
    Neoliberalism is now dug well in. Do you know what neoliberalism is? Next year, forty years will have passed since a small, rogue, roger moustache went feral with greed and power so anyone reading this may easily be a grandparent today. My, how time and moustaches fly.
    Neoliberalism is a monetary belief system at its most generous. But what it means for us mere mortals is we’ve had our state funded infrastructure taken from us and given to privateers who in turn sold our assets off to individuals both here and foreign and now they gouge us to make profits while supplying us with meagre nd yet expensive services. Ask anyone who’s phones went down during cyclone Gabrielle. Our electricity now belongs to the greed of others, our passenger rail is non existent but that’s awesome if you like logging trucks and never need to go anywhere in an elegant fashion. Our health systems are being eroded by private health providers and the banks manipulate the fictional fantasy that fuels domestic property values so you schmucks load up the mortgage to buy that Ford 4×4 or similar, then, you watch on in horror as house prices drop and you just might lose your job too. Then, to add insult to terrible injury, the banks come slithering out from under their rocks to caution us about the shit that’s about to hit the fan, by their doing.
    In short, and that’s roger douglas short which is quite short. We, that’s you and me, have been conned out of our luxurious lifestyles for the vast wealth creation of a very few others. Neoliberalism is a con job dropped on us by crooked politicians who pimped us to even more crooked big business, you know the ones, right? Pedophile ron brierly, the money sniffing graeme hart, gibb, chandler, fay, richwhite etc. A cadre of old white fucks who’s only talent was to be in the right place at the right time. They’re the nine multi billionaires I keep writing about. It’s they, not us, who call any political shots. We have no control, no governance over our politics.
    Now, here’s the kicker. Are you ready for it? Nothing. At all. Has changed. In forty years a cheap system that enabled crooks to commit crimes where there were otherwise no laws limiting their criminal activities is still functioning. It’s still there. Grinding away at our wealth and our time on earth. The crooks are still in control and we lot are merely slaves to their systems which is to simply siphon money off into their rapaciously greedy pockets. ( And of course, since we’re an agrarian exports economy, it should be no surprise as to who’s money they steal.)
    To vote. Why? We all know that our vote is meaningless. A vote is only worth what’s done to protect it and we do shit. If we do vote all we get is a group of gas bags on six figures plus expenses, we also get homelessness, hungry kids and lost souls shambling about looking to bed down in any decorative shrubbery they can find still unoccupied and now nine multi billionaires and four foreign owned banksters stealing record net profits in the billions from us.
    There can be no possibility of surprises because our rich abusers won’t allow surprises.
    Farmers. Yes, you. You guys and gals and kids have all the power. Yes, you do. Only you can break this awful 40 year old cycle of neoliberal abuse and that’s ultimately because it is your money they steal. Our city people are gone. All of them. They’re either gassed on the toxic smells coming from the heated plastic of their new hire-purchase furnishings or are so ignorant and exhausted they can’t make a cup of tea without attending classes while following instructions. And you farmers? You’re no different. They have you believing you’re not worthy. That you’re efforts are an annoyance at best. You do know who ‘they’ are right? It’s a simple equation. Those whom you think are your besties are in fact your worst enemies. The hideous national party have had you gaslighted for generations. They tell you what you want to hear then they steal your money then they blame you when you succumb to those times of the hardship they, through manipulating your markets, have dropped down on you. And it’s worth mentioning, that labour? During the reign of neoliberalism, is another national party. It was full of national party freak show muppets. roger douglas is ACT. He’s in up and behind fucking seymour. Quigly, don brash etc etc. So we effectively have two national parties with sundry hangers on parties offering up nothing except perhaps camouflage to hide the farcical charade that’s our politics. ( It may be a charade but it’s good coin, aye Boys? )
    We’re a tiny population earning vast amounts of money from exporting food and clothing fibre and that exports earned money disappears before we ever get a look at it. As has happened for 140 years. I once asked Lianne Dalziel “ Where’s our money then.? “ She looked down at her feet and said “ I dunno.”
    “Lianne Audrey Dalziel is a New Zealand politician and former Mayor of Christchurch. Prior to this position, she was a member of the New Zealand Parliament for 23 years, serving as Minister of Immigration, Commerce, Minister of Food Safety and Associate Minister of Justice in the Fifth Labour Government.”

  4. LOVE THAT PICTURE! I see all of Bert’s Muppet Mates…but where is Bert???? Bob, can you spot Bert?

  5. Winston won’t go with a green/red govt again. So his 5.8% on election night will help Luxon. As long as Seymour gets what he wants with his 16.5%

  6. The only surprise this coming election is if coward Kraut grows a brain. And that will never happen.

  7. We had eejits like that at our local council elections. We sorted them out and voted against them. I made a point of dropping them to the bottom of the list.

    Nil chance in a general election. Despite ACT’s appeals to them it’s against their new religion. Apparently Dave Seymour should have tatooed their beliefs — once they’d decided what they were –on his chest at their Mass on the parliamentary lawns.

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