What is fascinating about the Roy Morgan Poll is its consistency in 4 things, high Māori Party vote, high NZ First vote, high Green vote and a high ACT vote.
Roy Morgan seem to have captured a large group of voters who have made up their mind beyond the big two.
It’s a fascinating dynamic that could see a full MMP spectrum result with NZF over the 5% threshold and the Māori Party bringing in a huge amount of new MPs including new electorate wins.
The most important political event over Waitangi Weekend didn’t even happen at Waitangi and the mainstream media utterly missed it.
It was Chris Hipkins speaking at the Waiparera trusts Waitangi Day concert in West Auckland.
An event run by the President of the Māori Party attended with speaking rights by the Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party in the election year during Waitangi Day is the clearest symbolism that Labour and the Māori Party can effortlessly work together and that every time the Right play race baiting politics they run the risk of provoking a political backlash.
All National have been riding is the anti-Jacinda animosity instead of actual policy while ACT have been stomping a clear mark of political difference on the Right that is shattering National’s attempt to collect the middle vote.
The polarisation of politics on the Right means that if Luxon isn’t foaming at the mouth over the Māoris, his electorate walk to ACT who is clearly prepared to articulate an openly hostile position on perceived Māori political privilege.
The 2023 election will be defined by who NZ fears most, a National ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Maori Party Government, to date this debate is defined by age. If you are old, co-governance is hated, if you are young, co-governance holds little fear.
This election for this first time in NZ history will see Millennials and GenXers as a bigger numerical voting block than Boomers, their turn out will decide the Government and they don’t see allowing Māori to have a voice in decision making as the existential race war the right claim it is.
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