The latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour up, National down – Maori Party/NZ First Kingmakers

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What is fascinating about the Roy Morgan Poll is its consistency in 4 things, high Māori Party vote, high NZ First vote, high Green vote and a high ACT vote.

Roy Morgan seem to have captured a large group of voters who have made up their mind beyond the big two.

It’s a fascinating dynamic that could see a full MMP spectrum result with NZF over the 5% threshold and the Māori Party bringing in a huge amount of new MPs including new electorate wins.

The most important political event over Waitangi Weekend didn’t even happen at Waitangi and the mainstream media utterly missed it.

It was Chris Hipkins speaking at the Waiparera trusts Waitangi Day concert in West Auckland.

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An event run by the President of the Māori Party attended with speaking rights by the Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party in the election year during Waitangi Day is the clearest symbolism that Labour and the Māori Party can effortlessly work together and that every time the Right play race baiting politics they run the risk of provoking a political backlash.

All National have been riding is the anti-Jacinda animosity instead of actual policy while ACT have been stomping a clear mark of political difference on the Right that is shattering National’s attempt to collect the middle vote.

The polarisation of politics on the Right means that if Luxon isn’t foaming at the mouth over the Māoris, his electorate walk to ACT who is clearly prepared to articulate an openly hostile position on perceived Māori political privilege.

The 2023 election will be defined by who NZ fears most, a National ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Maori Party Government, to date this debate is defined by age. If you are old, co-governance is hated, if you are young, co-governance holds little fear.

This election for this first time in NZ history will see Millennials and GenXers as a bigger numerical voting block than Boomers, their turn out will decide the Government and they don’t see allowing Māori to have a voice in decision making as the existential race war the right claim it is.

 

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36 COMMENTS

  1. That time honoured political saying…“turnout is King”…if the “youngsters” can some how be persuaded, cajoled or manipulated into voting, it is game over for Luxury Luxon.

    Chippy needs to support Cannabis Legalisation also, start up businesses and a lot of people in pain are waiting…

    A big TPM vote will help too. NZ First? I guess we write them off at our peril–but really? their supporters often seem to be what should be Labour voters that can’t quite bring themselves to vote Labour!

        • Because voter turnout in under 25s is always amazing? Especially amongst lefties. Too lazy, drug-addled & don’t really care enough to vote.

            • Left wing policies tend to appeal to the young though. For some reason, tax cuts for wealthy people, cutting benefits, protecting property owners, etc don’t really appeal to the youth vote for some reason. Right wing voter turnout seems to be more consistent. That’s why it’s important to push the “voting is pointless, nothing changes” line to kill the youth vote (fortunately Labour is on board with this, by never actually changing anything meaningful).

          • Dave etc. Is that you again, Bill English ? Most of our young guys are fine; don’t judge everyone based on your narrow wee rectangle.

  2. Looks like the country does not like Luxon, with a decent leader and less “kill the poor” rhetoric the Natz would be way ahead.

    Labour got lucky with Winston, then with Covid that their policies and direction never got scrutinised enough by the electorate. Natz meanwhile have remained vacuous. Hipkins focus on policy seems timely.

    • The fact that you could be right reflects poorly on the NZ voter who votes for the person rather than the policies they represent.
      Hopefully National will forge ahead as ts policies ome clear and Labours policies continue to take the country to a 3rd World status

      • I think both Natz and Labour policies are driving us down, they are basically both Blairist 3rd path aka neolib financialised economics. Both basically inflate the money supply to attempt to pay for debt thereby debasing our money, our wealth, our spending power.

      • So Trev you just said you were voting National despite their policies not being clear. Is that voting for the colour and not the policy?

      • We were at 1st world status and it only took National 9 years of a National government to bring our country to its third world status. We are on the rise again fortunately.

    • You forget that it wasn’t the electorate that didn’t scrutinise the govt, the media certainly didn’t either. The electorate wasn’t allowed to hold the govt to account because who was on our side to ask the questions?

      The one broadcaster that held Jacindas toes to the fire was cancelled, all while Jessica and Tova fawned, forgetting their role as the fourth estate.

  3. None of the political parties seem to be interested in actually addressing growing problems with anti social, violent people and more and more people who are not working and need high needs, state care. More money everywhere to private individuals and agencies and hugs are NOT working with increasing scum around.

    Man stabbed woman 23 times after she refused to give him cigarette
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/131159250/man-stabbed-woman-23-times-after-she-refused-to-give-him-cigarette

    Where do you start. Firstly the violent criminals getting the Kāinga Ora houses – then getting only 4.5 years for this type of crime!

    Then we find out that Kāinga Ora with it’s vastly increased head count (just like Auckland City Council and their COO’s) isn’t building the houses – it’s buying luxury housing at huge costs. Remember the furore about the state house that was worth 1 million in St Heliers that they evicted the state house family from, well now they are buying large, luxury apartments for circa $700,000 – $800,000 per pop – millions of dollars for not very many houses!

    ‘Unique’ purchase sees Kāinga Ora buy $20m, 27-unit property in north Hamilton
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/131135304/unique-purchase-sees-kinga-ora-buy-20m-27unit-property-in-north-hamilton

    In the old days a state house was 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom approx 90m2 – now they are buying them for mega dollars at 130m2 (and the ongoing repair bills for larger housing) – if it was purpose built they could have a 3 bed and 2 bed for the same price instead of Kainga ora burgeoning their managerial head count for years, while they they frantically buy up new housing before the election.

    Kāinga Ora are competing against the first home buyers for the same houses that they complained that private landlords were! How long before these expensive homes need repairs from some of the scum who seem to be allowed to live in state housing and beat up their neighbours?

    Who is responsible when 1 million dollar houses just fall off their foundations while 100 year old houses are fine? Whose idea is it to allow housing to have no piles and be built in flood plains so that they can make a huge buck while virtue signalling new consents (when demolition is strangely not counted as minusing housing)

    Auckland flooding: Several Kāinga Ora houses lifted off their foundations
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/01/auckland-flooding-several-k-inga-ora-houses-lifted-off-their-foundations.html

    Auckland floods: Kainga Ora residents yet to hear from agency after homes swamped
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/131089970/auckland-floods-kainga-ora-residents-yet-to-hear-from-agency-after-homes-swamped

  4. About time our Rangatahi need to vote in big numbers so the old racist farts in our country get a wise up call.
    Also, I see Luxon is still putting his foot in his mouth as this morning he said he needed to get out of Wellington and see the real NZers. Excuse me I was born in Wellington but raised in the Hutt and you can’t get any more real people than the friendlier people than those in Wellington and even friendlier in the Hutt Valley.

    • covid is pa. Down south there are pretty real people, with a strong work ethic, respect for learning,
      solid old Presbyterian values – Bill English was an anomaly; the South Island’s West Coasters have always been an innovate breed apart too; being “friendly” is nice, but dismissing others as “ old racist farts”, isn’t a great advertisement for the Hutt Valley.

  5. Labour and Greens obsession above all else of the words and slogan, ‘warm, dry’ homes shows the irony with thousands of houses flooding through poor zoning, poor building practises and poor flood controls! And of course a lack of interest in climate change. Someone pointed out that while China has buses and trucks running on EV’s, NZ has pushed it so far out, that you won’t even be able to buy a diesel vehicle by the time they make it compulsory.

    Labeen need to stop performative outrage and endless spin and marketing, while decreasing the burgeoning management headcount and new woke / nazi groups everywhere.

    Auckland City council and Kainga Ora cries “not enough money” like many of the other organisations because they spending more and more of the ratepayers/taxpayers money on salaries for themselves while doing less and less and a worse job! I don’t blame Wayne Brown, I have always blamed the CEO of Auckland council who seems to be invisible while on a much higher salary.

    I don’t think National or ACT will help, but maybe a change in government will stop Labour and Greens relentless folly. Chippie is defiantly more likeable than Luxton, but unfortunately the rot is so deep, he can’t change the party now.

    Seriously how many people think more consultation on every little thing with cogoverance is going to speed up flood controls, justice and health care in NZ?

    It will do the opposite!

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/one-time-black-power-president-continues-fight-to-remain-on-maori-coastal-land/V2SHP4Q5DZG55LAM7YJDG5PUCY/ He moved there in 2014 and they still haven’t made a ruling!

    Even if there is a ruling then someone goes and appeals the ruling. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/engineer-who-lost-his-cool-and-attacked-pilot-but-police-never-charged-him/6IFG3G2TABDODBWDU2E75HXFSA/

    NZ can’t even get one system working as well as it used too. How many years of hell and more money will it take to push in all these dual systems – when it doesn’t seem to be working with what they have done so far with housing for example – disaster after disaster!

    Dome Valley environment court case shows how co-governance will really play out.

  6. Meh. Labour’s new leader bump will fade imo. I expect Labour will drop to mid-upper 20’s, which represents “the base”. As economy continues to go down the gurgler over the next year (due to high inflation and ever higher interest rates to address said inflation), and Labour will get 100% of the blame even though National is equally responsible since they also voted for the ridiculous (and ultimately pointless) lockdowns which had the government paying people to sit at home and do nothing with printed money for multiple months.

  7. Winston and Shane back in the House? On the same team as Christopher and David? Or hovering as some sort of grandiloquent parasites ringbarking whatever doesn’t take their fancy?

  8. NZ First back to being called , others , I see….you would think they might get a little more attention as they will be the party that decides if is National or Labour who is in power after the next election……

  9. Results show that nobody seems to have a winning handle on policy that people will vote for. People don’t seem to be very safe anymore, from poor planning and floods to criminal offending that is now a growing lifestyle – gangs up 13% – desirable a career.

    The sad thing about NZ crims is that it stops other people helping anybody anymore as there are so many cases of good samaritans being killed or badly injured.

    High-profile mobster loses name suppression after brutal attack on good Samaritan
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/revealed-high-profile-mobster-loses-name-suppression-after-brutal-attack-on-good-samaritan/CDRPG7PCNVC3DAVZ4IDLLSLSAA/

    Also tired of the mobsters in the media constantly whining for everyone else to change to help them – bet they get a real kick out of it and the woke media lapping it all up – police giving millions to the supposedly ex gang members. Funny how much domestic abuse these gangs get away with, while OT do nothing. Maybe getting the kids out of a violent home should be the first step to stop the cycle of abuse.

    Instead police are prosecuting the victims when they fight back. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/piopio-home-invasion-teen-burglar-admits-threatening-homeowner-with-bottle-knife/FXM4DAE2IZN5VWFDVRQA2AO424/

    Encouraging the offenders is leading to more and more low level offering that keeps getting more brazen. Why should others work hard when others in NZ have lifestyles to do what ever they feel like without having any civic duty or obligations. Doesn’t look like this lady has missed many meals, and told the staff, “you can’t touch us”. The criminal teenager above who was apparently 120kg+ not much work, too much drinking and drugs, going on by the look of it. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brazen-supermarket-thieves-local-councillor-calls-for-benefit-sanctions-on-feral-bums/MGHMN4FFJNBVRMLPEDDIPQW6FI/

  10. I said it almost a year ago and I’ll say it again. Luxon has to go if Nats want to win and if they want to win without being strangled by ACT. And if they are going to do it, they need to do it now.

    Chippie is having a new boy bump but I think he will sustain much of it.

    But — all the policies he’s chopping today are the ones many of us predicted. However, as predicted, no solid change to 3 Waters and moving Hate Speech to the Law Commission though it sounds good is an disaster.

    Govt’s should make policy based on the mood of the people (2) and/or the needs of the country (1). Its both a cop out and a smooth move to give a shopping list to lawmakers and ask them to find a way to make it legal. After turfing out so many non woke judges and replacing them with diversity candidates, you know what will happen. This has the ‘lands decision’ written all over it. Free Speech is potentially more at risk than earlier last year.

    • Yes Luxon is a prize plonker, but who do the Nats replace him with? Their front bench is packed with liberals like Bishop and Willis. Erica Stanford has been talked up as a future leader, but she’s seriously woke. So they aren’t really in a position to offer anything other than a more business-friendly version of our current wokist government. Shane Reti is a genuine conservative, but he seems shy and retiring – it’s hard to imagine him being comfortable in the media spotlight.

  11. Will Luxon shout Seymour a cup-of-tea this year or, will National stand a strong candidate in Epsom to try and reclaim the Right vote?

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