Chippy coming in as Leader has had a dramatic and immediate impact in both Polls which shows you how successful the hate campaign against Jacinda was.
TVNZ:
TV3:
As TDB predicted, the manner in which Jacinda was burnt by the toxicity of the right has created a political backlash as the swing voter demographic punished that kind of politics.
As TDB predicted, the Greens are actually far weaker than they look and ACT is far stronger while the Māori Party will end up being the kingmaker.
The Political Right were already popping the champagne corks believing they had already won.
What we are seeing is people want Labour to actually do what they said they would when we first elected them and Chippy is the next recipient of that trust.
Everyone saying it’s a leadership bump is nonsense – Labour went up 5 points in both polls, that’s not a bump, that’s jump – it shows how successful the toxicity campaign against Jacinda really was!
Voters still want what Labour promised in 2017!
This is not going to be the landslide victory to National and ACT that the Right have been crowing about. This realisation is going to trigger a desperate and angry response from the big money part of town who are funding the Right with millions in donations.
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I told you so! I said I liked Chippy and I was right!
What is wrong with Winston’s numbers? These are the perfect conditions for him, he should be killing it.
Perhaps he is not ‘Trumpian enough’? Or too early in the cycle to take the polls seriously?
Throw a dead cat from the 9th floor and it bounces.
Some points:
1). Just shows how toxic Ardern had become.
2). Hipkins has the same problem Ardern had – performance. This bounce will recede quickly if the incompetence continues.
3). There is still the Maori caucus issue to navigate. If the MP climb to 5% and threaten a clean sweep watch for movement from Mahuta and Jackson.
4). We are at the start of significant and likely sustained stagflation. The same sheeple that think Hipkins saved them during CovidCult will be looking for someone to blame when they can’t afford a trip to the GC in 2023.
I wouldn’t pop the champagne corks yet. Geoffrey Palmer had a larger bounce when Lange went and we know how that election went.
National/Act are still a reasonable bet.
Ahh Frank every cloud has a silver lining mentality, now roll over and tickle MickeyBoyles Tummy.
Funny thing is Frank that the “incompetence” label is getting thrown around when it’s not necessarily reflected in traditional metrics like GDP. Heartless numbers like economic growth , the likes of Nat/Act usually get all excited over, have not feared that badly at all. Like Nat/Act voters in the main really care about homelessness and child poverty? If Chippy even appears to be more frugal with spend Seymour and Luxon will have even less to hang their hat on. They don’t have any policies that really target suffering (which not suggesting Labour have made sufficient headway with the measures they have taken)
Labour seem to be hopeless and comms on big issues explaining ‘the why’ but also pointing out that SOME of National and Acts criticisms are actually bollocks and just become accepted as fact. Certain stakeholders in the primary sector bleating about things they are not actually paying for being a classic example.
That should be ‘hopeless at comms’ ironically
You know new leaders always get a bump. Settle down lad.
You can change the lipstick but it’s still a pig.
I do hope Chippy will keep NACT out though. I don’t dislike him, yet.
New leaders get poll bumps from excitement, even Cunliffe got labour a leadership bump, new leaders who make bold decisions to differentiate themselves from their predecessor and to excite the public sustain that bounce.
If Hipkins can drop the unpopular policies, drop the woke shit that loses voters, announce some popular policies and be seen as the trustful guy whose focused soley on nzers living standards and the economy, labour has a real shot at this year’s election. It’s an mmp election after all and they are always close.
Nationals biggest stick to hit labour with is culture war shit because labours social policies are deeply unpopular, whereas national and acts economic policies are deeply unpopular. If national is able to fight the election on culture war issues national will win, if national has no culture war stick to hit labour with and the election is fought on policy , labour will win.
A new leader before an election is not a death knell, John Major, Paul Keating, Julia Gillard, Pierre Trudeau, Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison, Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Boris Johnson all prove that wrong and Bill English won the popular vote in 2017 winning more votes that election than Key got in 2008 and people always forget Gordon Brown was initially extremely popular until the GFC, had he held a snap election in 2007 rather than holding on til 2010 he would have won more seats than Blair in 2005.
Its gonna be a long year and anyone can win.
would anyone believe him if he dropped these unpopular policies? chances are no.
I think this is a nice ‘new boy on deck’ bounce, but will it end the dissatisfaction that people have with labour?
Also pointing out that Act is still higher polling then the Greens, Top is nowhere really, Maori Party seems to be going the way of the dodo, and there are Labours traditional allies. Can they on their own create another government? I doubt it.
Even if they dropped 3 waters – which they can’t the Maori caucus will not stand for it, ditto Co-governance or even Self ID, they then have the issue of having less credibility then a traveling snake oil salesmen had a hundred years ago. And that credibility issue is going to follow them.
Personally it depends what Labour will do with Auckland. That town needs help as much as CHCH did after the earthquakes, there are going to many thousands of people homeless, now living in one of the much vaunted Emergency Motels, and the re-build will need money, people and material and will. Will have Labour have all of that? And the anger, frustration etc of the people that lost everything, will they be able to deal with that? I doubt.
All of that and National and ACT are appallingly worse.
But as you admit you are a Labour doubter, probably always was and always will be.
I am a voter.
And we know which side, clearly.
One swallow doesn’t make a summer! Just saying.
@ RH.
It’d depend on what you were swallowing. I’ve swallowed things that’d put you in a real party mood.
What I can’t understand is why Adern didn’t speak out about our politics, the un-elected hyper riche and their relationships to we, the people. The money the hyper rich sequester to get naked on then wriggle about on in the privacy of the mansion we could never afford on a minimum wage is ours. Not theirs.
Ask yourselves? How did graham hart, for example, save up that money? 12 or so billion of it. How? I know what he tells us but I don’t believe a word the sniffer says. ” I can smell where the money is” Bullshit!
You got fuckers in your pocket. That’s how you did it. All I have in my pocket is dust but at least there’s no calories in dust. Little Britain https://youtu.be/2zbQAPAcefc
No shock whatsoever. Dead cat bounce
Labour will be back to pre Hipkins levels before Easter. And far more splintered…
Are you in Hawaii or Te Puke today Chris?
Lower Hutt
So, San Francisco then…
FFS, its called a honeymoon period.
“it shows how successful the toxicity campaign against Jacinda really was!”
I think you’re attributing the opposition with too much competence.
Totally! No one had to burst a vein to campaign against Jacinda. It was a team achievement..team labour!
A newby with zero portfolio experience whatsoever up against a seasoned multi portfolio ‘go to’ guy with 15 years experience. That’s the choice!!
No one in their right mind, unless seriously deluded, is going to go for Mr. Zero. That’s got train-wreck written all over it!!
Any clear thinking astute business manager worth their salt would never pick option 1 given the choice.
Luxon will have rings run around him come the debates. There’s nothing behind the facade….nothing!
Popcorn anyone!
Grant you are so right. I have been saying for ages Luxon is thick and he’s playing at politics . He got on board with the hate campaign and it’s going to come back and bite him in the bum! . The hate campaign was no more obvious than when he didn’t want to admit Jacinda Ardern was a huge target for the dirty politics brigade. Hopefully people will now see through him and his part for what they are. Let’s face it there has been a surge with no real good news for the government.
Yes the debates should be great fun Grant! I’m hoping Chippy has a secret ruthless side that he’ll bring out and slice cluster fuxon off at the knees, with an added “na na loser, property portfolios don’t count”. I’d buy that cup, jff 🙂
I’ve heard “a national government will actually get things done”. I have heard that over and over because that is all he’s got. He has no idea how to get things done in Wellington. You know who does know? Chippy i.e. Prime Minister Chippy. (Gotta love Andrea Vance’s: Chippy v please call me Christopher.) Game on boys and girls.
Grant you reckon the Nude Nut could bite the dust in the Election Debates ?
The problem with your analysis Grant is that the man with 15yrs experience has never performed (let’s exclude CovidCult given conjecture).
The state of our schools, universities and polytechs should be a guide as to a minister’s ability. This doesn’t bode well for Hipkins as these have all gone significantly backwards in the last 5 years. While not solely his fault he was still the minister therefore sheets a lot of the blame.
The cautionary tale of Geoffrey Palmer should be first and foremost in most people’s minds. Once the Auckland emergency subsides then Hipkins will need to fix what Ardern broke while keeping onside the progressive left.
Good luck with that.
schools were run down under Key – Labour picked up a mess of underfunding in both Education and Health and were forced to pump funding into both these systems. Blaming Labour for the state of education is like blaming ice on the penguins – both stupid and wrong
Frank stupid AND wrong?
Never!
But you can blame Wayne Brown after being the job for 5 mins trying to fix 9 years of Labour Neglect?
No, Blame Brown for 20 years of National neglect.
Labour had and still has a majority government and yet everything steadily going from bad to worse.
Not on the things that matter to Nat/Act. Economic growth, unemployment ( not that Nat/act want to pay people but less on benefits ), and a few more natural disasters and people would have forgotten about ram raids ( unless some kid drives a Haines Hunter through a shop front).
Not on the things that matter to Nat/Act. Economic growth, unemployment ( not that Nat/act want to pay people but less on benefits ), and a few more natural disasters and people would have forgotten about ram raids ( unless some kid drives a Haines Hunter through a shop front).
The trouble with the progressive left is that there are two distinct groups who consider themselves to be the progressive left and “woke” identity politics is incompatible with social democracy so Hipkins will have to choose between them. And even though National did most of the damage that Labour are trying (not very hard) to fix it’s the incumbent who gets the blame.
National meanwhile has appointed a generic manager, like that last chunky bald guy in a suit whatever his name was. Elections in this country are usually decided by people who know very little voting for the best looking candidate who says a couple of things that they like the sound of – but will the proles forget the failings of the previous 6 years and vote for Chippy or will the generic manager do and say nothing much and not scare away too many lukewarm new National voters?
Once people start seeing the same cold, dead-eyed stare I can’t unsee whenever Hipkins is on screen, they’ll bail.
I think that you’re getting confused with Key!
Well they’ve witnessed a possum in the headlights with Luxon and a car crash with Collins, so I guess a dead eyed stare wins.
A ruthless steely gaze. I wanna see the Chipsters dark side, come debating time
The bounce might help the Greens in a strange way. The low and slipping Green polling, might force a leadership change. Other was they are just Hipkins Hutt valley hound.
Confirming just how toxic Ardern had become. This song by The Byrds pretty much sums up my feeling about Jacinda Ardern: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to-RVV_3anw
No Pope it just showed how toxic you and your ilk had become ??
Wow, I didn’t realize I had such power and influence.
Don’t flatter yourself pope, its you and your ilk
Pope Punctilious 11. Yes. Hidden agendas like He Puapua, combined with patronising preachiness, became just too much to stomach. Aspirations ? “ Faith without works is dead”.
Hidden agendas?
Another Qanon theorist gone down the rabbit hole of stupidity.
Looking at the first few comments here leads me to two possible conclusions; either the comments section here is dominated by right-wingers, or the left is desperate for the NatACTs to win in October, presumably to punish Labour for not being transformative enough.
I share the frustration with Labour’s lack of delivery on urgent issues like eradicating poverty, including a just transition to zero carbon emissions, and housing the homeless. Having spent half of 2020 effectively homeless, that last one hits particularly close to home (no pun intended).
But let’s be honest, none of this will improve under a National government. Especially one propped up by a frankenstein version of ACT, whose architects have taken its neo-liberal propertarian corpse, and stiched on rhetoric – and thus voters – from the Conservatives and the sort of right wingers who have voted for pseudo-centre parties like United Future and NZ First.
If Labour forms a third term government, they will be doing it with far fewer seats. Securing a majority in the house will require them to actually listen to the Greens, and most likely Te Pāti Māori, who show no signs this time of collaborating with ACT. This is good news for the left!
Our best chance of getting what we want in the next election, as usual is to shore up support for parties other than Labour, who won’t work with the NatACTs.
Oh and BTW, the surge in Labour’s fortunes after Jacinda became leader was dismissed as a bump. Sometimes a bump is all you need to get out of a rut 😉
Yes but if they get in, you can bet that Labeen will still pursue all their woke shit to the detriment of actual change that helps NZ’ers. They are so far down that rabbit hole they can no longer help themselves. The support parties are actually worse – the Greens are so fragile and woke now, they can’t tolerate open and robust debate, and the Maori Party are itching for full on separatism, not co-governance.
I almost feel like voting for anyone apart from Labour and Greens just to punish them and get a reset away from identity politics and co-governance crap.
> I almost feel like voting for anyone apart from Labour and Greens just to punish them and get a reset away from identity politics and co-governance crap.
It might be that nukefacts is genuinely frustrated, but take note folks, this comment fits the structure of the messages posted under #walkaway. An astroturf strategy used in the US election in 2020, where Trump supporters and bots pretended to be Democratic voters abandoning the party because of their support for woke politics. Expect to see more posts of this type as the year goes on.
Then demand of your labour doodash to do better.
You can not promote the shittiest Labour Party since the ascend of the labour party and scold people from walking away from that trainwreck, deciding that they rather take their chances with N/A then again vote for that bunch of selfserving divisive people.
As for Jacinda walking away for safe the party, the correct thing was to lose the election in 2017 when Andrew Little would have lost so bad it would actually have forced thinking in Labour. Instead they shunted Jacinda to the forefront, a person who lost Auckland central twice for their inablitiy to have a cup of tea with the Greens and create a deal where Party votes goes to the greens and Jacinda as MP for AKL Central. Guess who one twice, a National MP. Nikki Kaye. Jacinda was never anything else but the face of a Party that has not been honest in a long time. Jacinda left because being the face of a Party that is no longer liked was getting hard. No one blames her, but she should have never been in the position she got put.
And fwiw, maybe them losing them would have reset this Party of Clowns. But no, so we are stuck with the same team that can’t win a thing if they play fair, or without a pandemic to help them.
And some of us we know who these people are and thus we don’t expect them to deliver what they did not deliver over the last 6 years.
Affordable healthcare that is not 70.000 plus surgeries behind.
Houses – to rent adn to buy at affordable prices.
Public transport – affordable and everywhere – you know to get cars of the road cause climate change.
Future Proofing of our infrastructure, but at least we currently have bigger worries then just potholes and small slips.
So many things they could have done, so little they actually did.
And we are so tired of empty gasbag promises and that is all these suits/ettes have. Empty promises.
What a pile of gob shite. Seriously how were Labour expected to fix 9 years of destruction by the worst Government in our political history( National/ACT in 5 years.
Your anti Labour rhetoric has become so boring, its nauseating. It is you who is the clown. Reactionary is all you are.
This is not anti Labour nor is it Anti National. These suits are paid and hired to provide infrastructur, healthcare, education and public housing for the country. That is literally what people elect them too.
Name one, just one ‘success’ be it in housing, healthcare, or in education where something has gone from bad to good under Labour. And no, a separate health authority for Maori paid for by all – non maori and maori alike – is not a success, but it was a successful move to start segregating public service by race and racial connection.
And Labour will not be better, until the people that vote for them actually demand better. So here you are, happy with crumbs because you fear National. You don’t vote because you think Labour is better, you vote because you think that they are less bad then National. Good luck with that.
Again, you reply with just more gobshite.
1.Secured a historic free trade agreement with the EU, which will increase New Zealand’s GDP by up to $1.4 billion per year by 2035
2.
Permanently halved the price of public transport for Community Service Cardholders
3.Rolled out the National Bowel Screening Programme to the whole country
4.Delivered more than 14,000 public and transitional homes, as part of our plan to deliver more than 18,000 extra places by 2024
5.Removed fees from NCEA and NZ Scholarship to save families money
I just plucked 5 from thin air. See the issue you have is you just don’t think. You hide behind this facade that you are not anti left or right when in fact you clearly are. Otherwise you would know or at least attempt to research the wonderful things that have been achieved by Labour. I could add a 100 more but I just know I’d be wasting my breath and time on someone that so clearly has their head stuck in the sand.
And you are very welcome, I await your positive reply?
100%
The left is over L. The left is over G. Reason. Neither party is ‘left’. The Greens are idenditarian and fuck the world. The Labour Party are all academic clowns that went from Uni to Parliament with no stops what soever in the workforce. They owuld not know a worker if that worker were to fix their car, clean their house, teach their kids, washes their bottoms when sick, pulls the cable trough the ground for heir internet. makes their fancy breaky and serve it too, and so on and so forth.
I would assume that many that are currently over L have already chosen a third party for the next election. As that is the best anyone of us ex Labour voters, or current sitters outers, can hope for, a decent coalition in which the excesses of one Party are somewhat contained.
Like Little before her, Jacinda knew that she needed to step down to save her party.
Why ever she stepped down, it was the correct move for our country imo
More importantly, Chippy is on positive 36 approval rating, while Christopher is on 9 and heading into negative territory.
I can’t recall, but what were Judith and Simon’s numbers like before they got rolled?
Hipkins got a high rating on this poll based on 2 weeks at the helm . It is like when reporters interview celebritis as they come of the plane and say how do you like NZ . The next poll will be more important especially illy as he will be judged on how him and his government handles the Auckland floods . Key got a lot of kudos from the handling of the Chch earthquakes let see if Hipkins can copy him .For the sake of Aucklanders I hope he does .
Let’s hope so because that right wing mayor is fucking clueless!
That may be true but it must be remembered he has only been there 3 months so cannot had the time to change or improve the way the council itself operates .The left were in charge through Geoff so it is run how he left it.
Whose Geoff?
But as you say Chippy only two weeks and going great guns, boomer Brown fell at the first hurdle.
It’s not about how Brown hasn’t had time, it’s about what rate payers money is being used for…ie playing tennis ffs and then when he stands to front media, he has already abused them by way of text. The man is the wrong person for mayor. If you can’t see that, I truly feel for you.
Funny that Trevor, last week the right expected the new PM to have done “ everything “ after 2 hours in the job. We have now got a Minister for Auckland, a million dollar fund and Michael Wood to boost, look out Wayne Brown the country is watching you
And now this, who says Labour don’t do anything to support kiwis?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131113698/pm-chris-hipkins-set-to-reverse-petrol-tax-hike-retain-halfprice-public-transport-fares
” Securing a majority in the house will require them to actually listen to the Greens ”
Who don’t have anything to say unless its woke inspired.
The only time Labour listened to the Greens was when they were in the Alliance until they bailed.
Then Helen and Michael talked to everyone else but them,
> Who don’t have anything to say unless its woke inspired.
Need a hand getting that chip off your shoulder Mosaic? Yes, the Greens support respect for human rights, including those of women and a range of minorities. Yes, some of their supporters get a bit over-excited about these issues on anti-social media, as do many people about many things.
But the Greens have plenty to say on everything from public transport to tax reform to housing to drug law reform, much of which folks here would agree with more than Labour policy (or lack thereof) on the same issue.
” Need a hand getting that chip off your shoulder Mosaic? ”
Most definitely as soon as the Green party returns to who and what they stood for pre 2017.
The Greens always had excellent policies with strong spokespeople to articulate them and had my support from 2014 to 2020.
I knew Metiria Turei and I could never fault her commitment to championing social justice and everyone knew where she stood on poverty related issues including the strength and fire of Sue Bradford.
The failure of the current Greens is not the policies but their insistence on only concentrating on identity issues.
There are of course other problems that Bomber has highlighted many times on this blog if you care to research the posts.
Its sad that the current Greens have lost that chip on their shoulder ! when we need it the most.
It will be the next polls including the one after the budget which will indicate if this is a a trend.
” I can’t recall, but what were Judith and Simon’s numbers like before they got rolled? ”
Hipkins may well be facing Nicola Willis and not Luxon in October.
This’ll erase the 5% jump Chippie got.
Grant. “Government ending the 36% road user charges discount on January 31 and the 12.5c a litre petrol excise duty reduction on February 28 and March 31, AA adviser Terry Collins expected to fuel prices to rise by up to 40c by April.”
The half price public transport will also be cut in that same package i thought.
Food is going to be an issue this winter, specially veggies, fruit. But i guess the rich will have enough money to buy what ever is there, the rest of us can boil stones and grass.
The utter lack of housing was just made worse.
Have you tried to go to a hospital, see a specialist lately?
All of these issues are exactly where they were under the last leader of Labour who failed on all accunts to delivery even just something/anything.
So you two idiots,what will your right wing patsies do? Keep the road user discounts, public transport discounts, improve the cost of living, drop food prices, improve the economy and keep the energy winter payments? I guess they don’t fall under the something, anything category you complete idiots.
It is Grant Roberston that will cancel the road user discounts and the public transport discounts.
The ones Labour put in place in the first place to help the people during good economic times. National could learn a thing or too from Labour.
Only one,jeronimo,fair play.
Grant you reckon the Nude Nut could bite the dust in the Election Debates ?
Chippy gets a bounce, seems a nice guy, very well managed transfer of PM to him.
Looks like extra Labour votes are coming from NZ first and Greens mainly.
Same outfit though so let’s see what the electorate think of 3 waters and co governance and if Hipkins can defuse Labours self made dirty bomb.
A closer race means Nats might have to campaign on policy.
3 Waters is looking like a sure winner in Auckland around about now!!!
The well has run dry on this cause for Mahuta and Willie has lost his merger. The people have spoken.
The usual suspects–political illiterates and Natzo lovers–have their say above…so I will have mine…this country is facing an increasing shitstorm on various fronts. IMO a whole lot of people have to re-engage in political and practical community affairs as opposed to being passive spectators that may or may not be arsed voting predominantly middle and upper class people into the bourgeois Parliament every three years.
Jeez Frankus and Krautenstein, it is just a couple of bollocks polls, don’t brick yourselves yet.
Re the General Election, it will be close as usual under MMP, but I am going for a Labour/Green/Māori result–with a powerful TPM factor. Debbie has made it clear that they want all Māori electorates to be won by TPM.
The ram raids appear to be on the decline. We’ll done Labour and NZ police.
Don’t hear the right whinging much on this the past few weeks.
I don’t care who wins the election so long as they bring the country together rather than keep dividing it with identity politics