Hamilton West by-election massacre for Labour: Winners, Losers & Predictions

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National hooning around doing victory doughnuts after winning Hamilton West

The Hamilton West by-election was held to cause maximum damage to Labour as part of Dr Sharma’s kamikaze revenge attack run.

Hell hath no fury like a migrant Dr scorned.

The resulting self mutilation of Labour was far more damaging than imagined.

Labour went into this with a 16% majority, they lost by 16%, that’s a 32% swing against Labour.

That’s fucking devastating.

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There are of course political winners and losers.

WINNERS:

Tama Potaka – As the former CEO of Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki, Tame Potaka is ironically  a man who has epitomised the success co-governance can achieve while winning for a Party screaming against co-governance! His emphatic embrace of draconian ankle bracelets on children marks Tama out as a future leader of the National Party because his willingness to turn the harshest elements of the State on the poorest people (despite being Māori himself) are the very types of politicians that angry white voters love the most. Watch Tame leap up the National Party hierarchy.

Violent Crime – It is such a glorious vote winner. It doesn’t matter that crime is historically lower than at other times and is a mere ramification of the stress Covid generated, it scares the bejesus out of people and National smashing Labour with a 32% swing highlights how powerful it is. If you thought post-covid social damage generating the Ram Raids were bad, you ain’t seen nuttin yet! Buckle up, the stresses and strains going on everyone with a mortgage and pushing prices beyond peoples ability to pay will cascade down causing an explosion in desperation and need mixed with misplaced algorithmic bravado and social media notoriety mixed with depression and full blown alcoholism to create an explosion of violent crime. You thought shit was bad now? Imagine 150 000 job losses and 10% food inflation with a 30% jump in rents! Things are about to break and that is going to frighten people into demanding a response from the State that is disproportionate.

News media covering crime – The ratings bonanza for crime porn news coverage has just saved every news producers job in NZ’s desperately underfunded newsrooms. If it bleeds it leads will become the mantra and the nation will howl in fear and anger and resentment screaming ‘something must be done” while driving ratings through the roof. The 2023 crime spree will be brought to you by ‘KiwiBank – banking made safe’.

Get tough on crime cheerleaders – Here they come, the Something-must-be-done-Get- Tough-On-Crime cheerleaders, all promoting terrible things to be done to the worst people. Some Politician, either Luxon, Winston or Seymour will finally break the political consensus and demand NZ Police be armed at all times and the frightened News viewers will scream “Yas Kween”.

Political Apathy – A pitiful turn out of around 30% heralds what may be a dynamic of next years election, an electorate too grumpy to engage.

National’s ground game and volunteer base – They had an enormous ground game in Hamilton and their volunteers were more fresh faced and excited than the Labour activists.

LOSERS:

ACT – Win 10% when they could have won 15%. This is a set back and another reminder that ACT have an enormous job to win over National voting boofheads in 2023. ACT keep seeing their electorate as rural or provincial when their are actually drawing support from a psychological electorate who see ACT as a Right wing values party.

TOP – Walked away with about 2.4% of the vote, 5% would have been a win on the night for them. Naomi Pocock is a good candidate for them, they just need to keep chipping away at this and show a possible win in Ilam.

Labour – Things have been so bad for Labour that even a small loss here would have still been a victory, but a 32% swing against them? They have been destroyed by this result. Poor Georgie was a great candidate and has earned a second shot at the seat next year.

Dr Sharma – His kamikaze revenge plan has succeeded in destroying him and hurting Labour. As for his political future, we will never see him or his party in any significant role in NZ politics ever again.

Predictions: 

The People of Hamilton West will be wooed in December and forgotten by Christmas. They will have an opportunity to put their working class pain and their working class anger directly to those who would harvest their support. It was a bitter fruit and it will taste toxic.

Tama Potaka’s talent to call for harsher sentences on Māori while being Māori will win him Winston Peters level adoration from an angry white electorate and he will rapidly replace Mark Mitchell as Police spokesperson.

National will learn violent crime and promising retribution is the way to win 2023 so expect ACT and National and NZ First to all compete to arm police first.

Labour will freak out and start dumping anything they think is controversial and in doing so will look even weaker.

Hamilton West won’t get safer.

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54 COMMENTS

  1. Do you think the Hamilton (East…but the driver wasn’t local as he was unaware that he drove down only no-exit road in Fairfield) Friday night shooting was a stunt for the National party?

  2. The election went exactly as I expected. The only good thing out of it could be that Hamilton gains a doctor. He might be a lying little turd and taking his word for anything might be questionable but at least he has the piece of paper to say he can do it. Then again he might think that doctoring is beneath him now.

    • And that certification puts him above anyone else in the Labour troupe who have lawyers that no no law, communications specialists to spew bull, and other assorted ‘lawmakers’ on the ground of diversity. In fact, one could say he was the best and highest qualified member of the Labour party but sadly he forgot that when the Queens demands people to jump that they to jump and not ask why.

        • do your average payrises including what CEOs etc get which pulls the average up or just workers which will pull the average down, what your board of directors get is not a reliable metric…

    • I didn’t read that sick leave and holidays were going to be annulled in any party’s manifestos Millsy? I must have missed it, what page are they on and why isn’t the media talking about it?

      • They have voted against increases in sick leave and holiday entitlement everytime the policy has been voted upon. Voted against the minimum wage increases everytime.
        We don’t hear from the media because they are a huge part of Nationals drive back into government.
        Get a copy of the Hansard report if you are genuinely interested in the facts.

        • Millsy implied that we won’t be able to take sick leave or holidays. So the 6 weeks I have owing is not getting taken off me is it?

  3. And the winner… (of the petulance, self aggrandisement, entitlement & party undermining Award) is…Gaurav Sharma!

    Various Parliamentary parties have made selection mistakes of course, in unlikely to win seats, or lowly list placings…but this one by NZ Labour was a classic, I guess at least Mr Sharma did not beat a defenceless teen with wooden bed legs…

    • Does the Labour Party ever have any responsibility for anything, ever?
      This could have been avoided by almost anything but the hissy silent-treatment, closing ranks we witnessed. The leadership chose instead haughty refusal to speak to Sharma. Very mature.
      This is the result. Wasted money but worse for Labour and even worse for any public idea that we might be represented by adults.

  4. Tbf 10 percent is a win for Act esp when it coincides with a big swing towards National. Means they’re developing a pretty solid core vote.

  5. How to people like this new MP lie straight in bed, unfortunately he is a token diversity MP. who would never have usually been picked ( see Tauranga ) for the National party. This is a sad state of affair’s because his statements pre election were in favor of Labour policies, why did this support for these Labour policies even stand up to scrutiny in the debates . You have got to ask yourself did anyone even ask these questions. How long will this new MP (an obviously educated person ) even tolerate the likes of Uffendell, Simeon Brown , Bishop , Woodhouse, the useless Maureen Pugh (who rolls her eyes and batts her eye lashes behind Luxon on a daily basis at question time. ) et. al. all bullies in their own right.

    • Mr Potaka (heh, “potato” came up in predictive) sounded like an arrogant chap on the radio this morning. There has long been a small element of the Māori population that identify with corporate capitalism and the Pākehā elite, as opposed to entrepreneurial SMEs and farming. But many of the prominent like Wira Gardner, still remain strongly ensconced in the Māori world too.

      I still regard any person with half a brain regardless of race, that ends up in the Natzos as being in the wrong party. But Māori in particular should know better, and most do if you look at the number of Māori Natzo MPs!
      It is cringe inducing to listen to pillocks like this new one that are basically crawlers–but lets be frank–Parliamentary politics encourages such people.

      • Tiger Mountain aren’t Maori allowed to hold their own views and align with the party that they most wish. to?

        Wira Gardener. I know it is said not to speak ill of the dead, but is that the same Wiri Gardiner who tried to interfere with the judiciary over the Moana case?

      • So Labour has done so much for Maori in their time e in office .More are living in poverty ,more have poor health lookout. This Maori man is a leader and does not need a job in parliment to earn a good wage .There will be plenty of Labour members dusting off their CV after last weekend

  6. Yes, Labour will freak out.

    No, dropping anything controversial or even offering next weeks lotto numbers will not change the upcoming disaster. A lot of political careers in Labour are about to end, from the PM and Deputy PM down and yet, I think they still don’t get why!

    The phone is now officially off the hook.

  7. “Hell hath no fury like a migrant Dr scorned”
    Ekshully, as much as I think the guy has an over-inflated view of Hisself., I think I reject the premise of your assertion.
    Not even sure why we should accept why a migrant shouldn’t feel aggrieved, ripped off and treated like shit after being lied to, exploited, had the rules of the game changed on them, ignored and a host of other shit when we’ve pretended to be a caring, sharing, kind and compassionate nation (that punches above its weight).

    Since 2016, I’ve been telling them to steer clear of the place. There are better places to be

  8. The Green Party should have put up a candidate. Then Labour would probably have got the same number of votes as doc Sharma.

  9. ACT doesn’t need to win votes off National, in fact that is probably counterproductive. ACT will take votes from Labour & co. Voters who previously supported Labour or the Greens but are sick of being shafted by them, will end up voting ACT to put a stop to Labour’s unmandated, divisive nonsense. Taking votes off your opponents, not your allies, wins elections.

  10. “and their volunteers were more fresh faced and excited than the Labour activists”.

    Duh, doesnt Labour read The Daily Blog? Given that they shat on many of their loyal supporters as evidenced by your readership, your comment is to be expected.

    And I want to pick you up on your comments on crime. I dont think you are right. Because much has been made of it, I have been ratting out various statistics where I can. Surprisingly, it’s very hard to find out the truth on this.

    Couldnt get data on kids but I saw a few things that inferred violent crime is on the rise and the next day David Farrar? Curia comes out with a graph that shows Violent Offending was at 50K per year 2016 – 2018 and has risen 2019 – 2022 to something around 68,000. If that’s true its and increasing, that’s approx. a 36% increase in violent crime. And I dont think ramraids are considered violent crime BTW.

    You only need to look within your own communities to see crime is rampant. We have seen road rage incidents locally and people getting knifed on shopping streets. The kids are getting beaten up at the bus stop and at the mall on the regular. Heck even at our local Catholic Girls College (8th decile) we had a 14 yr old break a 13 yr olds back while everyone stood around – her crime, talking to a boy the other one liked.

    There is an obvious increase in crime across NZ. But the problem is politics and media muddy the waters so much that nobody really knows what’s going on. The police arent doing their core job, not attending call outs, not present in communities, dont want to take people in and it looks like the courts push down the nature of the offence in exchange for keeping people out of prison. (Kind of similar to the US)

    Nobody knows the extent of the problem but the Labour party’s dislike of measurement means much of import is passing under the bridge without anyone the wiser. Occasionally we see these distortions played out in media but increasingly you only become aware of it by word of mouth or when you encounter it yourself.

    But why it’s happening (Most countries are experiencing an uptick in crime) and what or who is responsible is another question entirely. And these are the questions we most need to solve in order to come up with effective solutions. Can we please stop assuming we know what’s happening and why and get a thorough diagnosis first. And then let’s do what is actually going to fix the problem. All this back and forth on crime is drearily reminiscent of the misinformation/disinformation farrago, so much ideology and assumptions and political point scoring with little regard for the facts.

  11. The public perception that crime is on the rise is because it’s recently become more visible: Suburban dairies and shopping malls rather than behind closed doors or in “out of sight, out of mind” suburbs that you’d only want to drive through if you were playing grand theft auto.
    Sharma suffered from a textbook case of “candidate-itis” and confused voter support for the party he was in for support for him personally. This was what ultimately doomed him politically in a similar way to the political fate of Jami-Lee Ross before him.

    • There has also been a noticeable increase in the number of buildings & people turning up with bullet holes in them. Police are also under fire, both literally and figuratively, for their incompetence and their habit of going after the law-abiding rather than tackling actual crime.

  12. Tama Potaka and Harete Hiponga now comprise the Nat’s Maori caucus.
    Wow!Watch out Willie, this dynamic duo are on your case!

  13. Perspective
    An electorate of 66,013 eligble voters. Only 15,187 voted. Hardly deserves the headline ” massacre”. Suggests that near 50,000 knew it was a waste of money and time.
    Even if some main voting booths in large suburbs only opened on election day and if the postie deliveredpapers just a few days before.

    The Potaka family now have to move into Hamilton West ! Yet the conflated slanging and denigration he gave today of us , and saying what he knew Hamilton West wanted from a couple of meets with business ….. he’s as fake as Luxon !

    Back in May, slick-boy Luxon said about his learning te reo, ” he hoped improving his skills would help him be more inclusive and connect with ORDINARY people.” Well Luxy boy you got an “ordinary ” mate in your caucus now.

    Where’s Potaka going to reside ? Will he ship his kids off to Ham East private schools because he couldn’t really have them mixing with us crime ridden ‘ bottom feeders’.

    Pick a suburb for the whanau .

    https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/waikato/hamilton/maeroa/listing/3867431025

    https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/waikato/hamilton/nawton/listing/3846068606

    https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/waikato/hamilton/frankton/listing/3883976960

    https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/waikato/hamilton/hamilton-lake/listing/3865884257

    https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/new-homes/house-land/waikato/hamilton/rototuna/listing/3623740088

    • Having grew up in ham east, in a pretty rough part of nawton, I can reliably tell you, that the only suburb in Hamilton east that our new MP could possibly desire to live in is the Forest Lake area.

      As for his kids, well… They’ll have to commute to the other side of the city. But at least they won’t get mugged at the local high schools. Or maybe they could go to the local ones, they’d either get tough or get a regular beating.

  14. The scene is set for the ’23 election.

    That this election was a trainwreck for Labour is only just the beginning. It’s not that Labour have run out of ideas, but that the ideas they do have are really, really bad ones. Almost as if they’re designed to alienate the average voter. As someone further up the comments said – the phone is off the hook and they’re ploughing on with this nightmare regardless of their internal polling results. (One wonders at the internal machinations within the caucus)

    In addition, we face a year of bitter recession with slumping house prices, a credit crunch and tumbleweed in the high street.

    As a psychologist friend explained to me after the previous election, anyone voting into office on the basis of emotion (adulation) will be removed on the same basis (revulsion).

      • Maybe I do! LOL

        House prices affect the general demeanor of the public. Although it’s not really cash in the bank, rising house prices do make homeowners feel richer and similarly falling house prices weigh sentiment down. If values continue down, there will be a crop of new homeowners with large mortgages who are in ‘negative equity’ territory, whereby their debt to the bank is larger than the value of the property.

        My point was that this negativity gets directed at whoever is in government at the time.

    • Well said Andrew.
      Historically if house price slump and at the same time interest rates rise the incumbent Government feels the brunt

      • Not for those demanding housing affordability. Cause and effect.
        The country screaming housing affordability will also vote for a government prepared to listen to its people not a low number of property investors.

        • Problem is that if your house or investment property’s value falls on paper, you are less likely to sell & cement in that loss of value, unless you really have to. So on paper houses may appear more affordable, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be able to find one to buy or, due to inflation & the cost of living crisis, be able to get the money to pay for one, if you do find an “affordable” house (rest assured, they will still be grossly over priced). It’s a rigged game, but it still one of the better paying games in NZ.

          • There are more listing now than during the height of the housing crisis. Whilst what you say is correct, that was historical, no longer.

  15. They (Labour) won the last election that is a mandate to rule Richard. The GST rise and $25 million flag debate
    did National have a mandate with their huge majority according to our media.

    • I guess you appreciated the 4th Labour Government’s mandate to impose Rogernomics and Neoliberalism on New Zealand? Telling lies to get elected and then doing the exact opposite when you gain power, is wrong which ever party does it. It is treason against the New Zealand people and politicians doing it should be held accountable for their actions.

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