TVNZ finally release their last poll for the year and it points towards a hard right National/ACT Government implementing ankle bracelets on children, sacking 14 000 state service workers while slashing billions in welfare and education spending.
It will be a cluster fuck of conflict policies all looking to punish someone and my cynical black splinter of heart can’t wait. The carnage these right wing wankers will cause will shock the NZ electorate into a state of 3 year civil disobedience.
I. Can’t. Wait.
There are of course political winners and losers.
Labour – at 33% after all the shit that has been thrown at them, Labour’s extraordinary polling is still standing up! There is a large chunk of the electorate who believe in what Labour did to protect us from Covid, who see our inflation is low compared to the rest of the planet and who see our economy is doing better comparatively as well. These voters are bonded to Labour and they will go down with the ship. I thought Labour might slip into the 20s, that they still have 3 in front of them is remarkable.
ACT – David Seymour’s on going strength and the fact ACT are in double digits consistently is the true mark of how polarised this country has become politically.
When I warned Woke Identity Politics activists in 2018 to stop attacking Free Speech by cancelling Don Brash, gender critical feminists and Crypto-fascists Southern/Molyneux, I was doing so from a perspective that the woke identity politics activists had no comprehension of the political backlash they could inspire by waking the dormant political fault line of ACT. In early 2018 ACT polled .7%. After the woke identity politics activists attacked free speech, ACT soared in popularity and are now polling 12%! From .7% in the space of 4 years to 12% represents the greatest polarisation of NZ Politics ever!
Can the woke identity politic fuckwits please stop giving the far right culture war ammunition?
Winston – As TDB has been warning all year, at 4% NZF is back! if ACT don’t attack him and rule out working with any Government he is part of, Winston will be back in Parliament.
Jacinda – Her own brand has been undermined by neo-kindness, the tilted head and concerned nod routine when people are hurting triggers them, it doesn’t calm them down. She is being failed by a Cabinet who are tired and are making mistakes like 3 Waters entrenchment and those mistakes are being seized upon by the Opposition as evidence of malfeasance rather than tired individuals dropping the ball. To save Jacinda, the Cabinet have to step up.
Greens – Stalling at 9%, if Winston is back, the Greens are meaningless and politically irrelevant.
National – It’s like National and Labour are playing rugby with the Labour team all using crutches and National are only ahead by 4 points. They are hopeless.
In 2016 I helped then Chief of Staff Matt McCarten put together the Labour election strategy.
It was simple, use MMP to cut National’s support Parties so NZ First would choose Labour.
We did that by standing a strong public service candidate like Greg O’Connor in Ohariu against Peter Dunne to knock him out of the race and by bringing Willie Jackson and urban Māori away from the Māori Party.
That cut National’s support Parties and made it impossible for National to gain a majority.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win.
To that end, Jacinda should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, John Tamihere would clean up if Jacinda had a coffee with him.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe has yet to make that decision, but if he did, a coffee between Jacinda and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Jacinda had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party/TOP Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom.
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