…following on from our insanely successful hosting of the Auckland Mayoralty Election, The Working Group hosted the Taxpayer’s Union Hamilton West by-election debate.
This by-election matters because it is a political competition that provides different symbolic wins for each Party as we go into the 2023 election.
For National to show the power of their confidence, they need to win this by-election with a resounding victory and large majority.
For Labour facing low polling and intense post covid animosity, a small loss here would still be a wider political victory.
For ACT, a 15% result would be an enormous political victory for them.
For TOP, 5% would also be a huge political victory
and for Dr Sharma, just standing on his principles and forcing a by-election to maintain political integrity makes him a winner.
The Poll released on the night shows how close to each of those symbolic victories they all are!
The genuine fear and anger at crime highlights how much of an issue it will be for Labour as they struggle to regain the narrative.
The perception is that crime is out of control, despite the evidence showing a spike, but in context, isn’t the hysteria clickbait the mainstream media are selling it as.
Post Covid, media coverage of youth crime has exploded. Images of ram raids and organised crime violence has shocked, frightened and angered the country with a 25.2% increase in theft and a 19.7% increase in acts intended to cause injury.
The recent stabbing and killing of a Dairy worker in the Prime Minister’s own electorate has become emblematic of a narrative the Government is soft on crime while the get tough on crime cheerleaders promise terrible retribution.
Aggravated robberies of commercial premises doubled from 2015 to 2017 – from 599 to 1170 – why didn’t the National Government solve crime then, and why do the rest of you think putting ankle bracelets on children is the bloody solution?
Why do we get played like this by the ‘if it bleeds it leads’ clickbait media time and time and time again?
Aren’t you all as citizens of this country sick of having your anger and fear manipulated by corporate media and exploited by ‘get-tough-on-crime’ political cheerleaders?
Aren’t you?
The same tricks are being played to make you think Māori are secretly stealing political power and water, that Willie Jackson is taking over as Editor in Chief of the TVNZ/RNZ and that the Banks don’t need to pay more tax, etc etc etc.
The shit we get distracted by in this juvenile settler country low imagination horizon culture of ours is endlessly disappointing to me.
FFS NZ, focus on the important shit that matters, not the tricks used to emotionally manipulate you.
It was a great debate, the room was full and you can’t say that about many places discussing politics on a Monday these days.
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58% (ignoring 1-2% for NZ First) plays 33% (remembering no Greens candidate). That is a kicking if borne out at by-election day.
Staggering that Act is at 12% for a by-election…….
As for the crime situation – it’s only going to get worse as the recession hits so if you don’t like the show now you are going to hate it next year………
Yes NZ please focus on the important issues the first one honesty.
When a 10 year old poses a genuine risk to property and people, they should consider themselves lucky that an ankle bracelet is all they have.
I guess its easy for you to be so utterly pious and self satisfied in your virtue when you’ve not lost anything or anyone to the crime wave that Adern has stoked the fires of.
Stuff Analysis a.k.a the One Sourse of Truths Propaganda Department.
Dr Sharma, just standing on his principles and forcing a by-election to maintain political integrity makes him the winner of the Loser Stakes. The only integrity it maintains is a whole hearted integrity to his own swollen-headed ego.
Hamilton West is a National seat through and through and the last election was an anomally. 46% of the vote confirms this. It also confirms how ineffective Sharma was as an MP and also confirms the distrust the general public had of Sharma. The fact Labour still garner 33% of the vote still shows a percentage that believe the country is heading in the right direction despite the strong right wing media biased stories throughout the past 12 months.
I had to laugh. People on the left say the media is biased towards the right. Those on the right say the opposite is true.
Tama & Sharma won the night with their banta and laser like minds on the issues that matter locally as well as in the Asylum in Wellington.
Dansey won the most boo’s!
The TOP was too busy away offshore a lot of the time and like all the other party’s was only interested in top down cooking hierarchy building.
As for the Act candidate. It looked like and sounded like he didn’t want to be there.
Ae! except that Tama was as genuine as a 2 bob watch, or a Paul’s Quinn (they’re of equal value in this space, going forward))
ELECTION FRAUD!
I am marching on Parliament tonight to DEMAND that Sharma be given his rightful first place.
NZ First and TOP over5% would make for some worth while balanced coalition partners for national and ACT. A pity the green s can’t turn a shade of light blue.
Sharmageddon
Hamilton has always been weird. It is the capital for the wealthy Waikato farming fraternity, always famous for sexually transmissible infections, and the only Aotearoa “city” not on the coast, disconnected from Moana / Tangaroa. No wonder people are strange if they only inhale methane. Just be happy we don’t live there I suppose.
Not really Frank as Hamilton has a lot of red neck voters, and that seat was Nationals for a long time.
Not really Frank as Hamilton has a lot of red neck voters, and that seat was Nationals for a long time.
Nah it was a traditional bellwether seat that tilted blue.
That said demographics have changed and it is:
a). Younger
b). More ethnic (Indian and Chinese)
I’d argue in normal times its a blue leaner. Nothing more.
Not really Frank as Hamilton has a lot of red neck voters, and that seat was Nationals for a long time.
I think we got your point the first time @ Covid is pa
Unfortunately Pocock said ‘evidence’ based too many times- unless you are quoting an actual study what does that mean? TOP is an aspirational party. Their existence is about new approaches, fresh eyes and ideas. Game changing-& changing the game and so that the electorate can understand, but they can show us the pathway to that? Change for good. Now is their moment to capitalise on directionless voters and give them something to get behind. TOP can make changes only if they can inspire. Small parties need to be 100% on message, the juniors all in concert. The surprising thing about ACT even having so many freshies in parliament is that they are in lockstep. Raf could be the next Seymour- on top of the facts, witty, to the point, and visionary but the message and methods need to be unambiguous.
New Roy Morgan poll just released today:
National 39% (+7)
Labour 25.5% (-3)
Greens 12% (-3.5)
ACT 11% (-1.5)
TPM 4% (+1)
NZF 3.5% (-)
TOP 2.5% (-0.5)
NC 0.5% (-)
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9122-nz-national-voting-intention-november-2022
Ankle bracelets for kids,flash back to a one time regime of yellow stars. Also,why should governments supply at tax payer cost, security for small or large business,outside of normal social policing care.Why should not those businesses insured be profferd a % of cost of their services to their customers for security by their insurers.