Last week we found out why we rely on military professionals to fight wars. On Wednesday morning, both mainstream and social media went crazy; after it was reported that Russia had bombed Poland. A frenzy of reporting and commentary erupted. Ukraine immediately claiming it was a Russian strike and calling for a NATO military response. What would NATO do? Would Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty be invoked requiring a military response from NATO? News channels trumpeted the increased threat of NATO and Russia coming to blows and starting World War Three.
When I heard about the incident, the first thing that I did was Google; Przewodow the town that had been hit. Google Maps told me it was about six kilometres from the Ukraine – Russian border and near Lviv. It also told me that there was nothing of military significance in that town. So applying Hanlon’s Razor; the theory that when an unfortunate incident can be attributed to either malice or stupidity then it was most likely to be the latter; I assessed that with the archaic state of Russia’s tech and the poor standards of Russian training it was most likely that the incident was caused by an accident. Further, if (in a moment of suicidal stupidity) Russia escalated and attacked NATO it is unlikely that they would do so by bombing a small rural village. However, watching the media furore I was disappointed as reputable news networks dived into exaggerated and unsubstantiated scare-mongering. It probably gets more ‘clicks’ but doesn’t serve the wider public.
Fortunately, NATO is an alliance run by military professionals trained to be calm under pressure and aware of their responsibilities. Quickly, an investigation took place and NATO’s position was clarified. The investigation concluding the explosion was caused by an off course, Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. This makes perfect sense, Lviv in Ukraine is the main town through which aid to Ukraine flows from Europe. It is close to the border and is often attacked by the Russians so is surrounded by Ukrainian air defence missiles.
If you are not familiar with air defence its useful to explain some technical points. Intercepting Russian cruise missiles with the range to attack Lviv is difficult and takes sophisticated air defence systems. The most common system the Ukrainians deploy in this role is the Soviet S300 air defence missile system with a range of approximately 70-200km depending on the model and a large explosive warhead. A warhead so big that the Russians have used modified S300 missiles to attack ground targets in Ukraine. An S300 missile travels at approximately 3,200 – 4,800 kmph so even a minor error could mean that the missile lands kilometres from its intended target. Even modern precision guided weapons are not always 100% accurate and Soviet era guidance systems like the S300’s are even less accurate. Further, when a large explosive warhead detonates near an approaching enemy missile; it can send possibly lethal debris flying kilometres in unpredictable directions. In this case, the incident is most likely a tragic mistake; unfortunately one that killed innocent people; but still a mistake.
It is important to understand the powerful role played by people like NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, President Biden and General Miley the United States’ senior military officer whose considered and sensible responses were exactly what was required at a difficult time. While firmly demonstrating their support for Poland and resolve; they managed to calm the rhetoric and make sure that the situation did not escalate. Throughout this conflict, Jens Stoltenberg in particular has demonstrated strong leadership as he delicately balances maintaining NATO’s security and supporting Ukraine against the risk of nuclear war. It is a tough job, but he has done it well.
In Ukraine, the war on the ground continues as predicted. Starting in the south, the situation around Kherson remains uncertain with reports that Ukrainian forces conducted an amphibious operation on the Kinburn Peninsular early in the week, that are hard to corroborate because of Ukraine’s tight information security in the area. The Kinburn Peninsular is a thin strip of land that juts west from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, it is approximately 40km long and about 10km wide. It is possible that the Ukrainians have put a force on the peninsular but it is unlikely that this operation will develop into a major offensive operation unless there is a complete Russian collapse. The peninsular is too narrow for Ukraine to manoeuvre a large enough force to create a significant breakthrough. This operation and any other reported crossings of the Dnipro River are likely to be probing raids not large crossings that will develop into a major offensive.
Later in the week, reporting settled down and Ukrainian and Russian forces appear to be establishing balance along the Dnipro River. An opposed crossing of the Dnipro River by Ukrainian forces is highly unlikely. Amphibious manoeuvre of the size and scale required is a massive undertaking. The Russians are estimated to have about 20,000 men along the river. Military planners normally like to attack with a superiority of at least 3-1; so Ukraine would need to get about 60,000 soldiers and their tanks and artillery across the river. While troops are crossing a river they can’t fight; so Ukraine would need to achieve air and artillery superiority in the area before the crossing could start.
Therefore it is likely that the Ukrainians will dig in and protect the new frontline. From the west bank of the Dnipro River they can use HIMARs and artillery to attack Russian forces and interdict the movement of logistics on the M17 and T2202 motorways that take supplies from Crimea into the Kherson area. Further, the M14 and P47 motorways will also be within range making north / south movement harder.
Moving north, last week saw continued Russian attacks against Bhakmut. This small town plays a key role in the war. Tactically important because it sits on a web of road networks; holding it opens up the opportunity for Russian forces to advance north and west on the M03 motorway towards Sloviansk. It also provides access to the route west along the T0504 motorway towards the town of Kostanyantnivka. At this town the T0504 meets the H20 motorway that can be advanced along to attack Kramatorsk from the south. Holding Bhakmut provides options for Russia to develop its campaign in Donetsk.
Further north, the Ukrainians are continuing unsuccessfully to try and break through Russian defences arrayed along the Kremina to Svatove line. This line was the limit of the Ukrainians Kharkov Offensive and the front appears to be stabilising along this line in the Luhansk Oblast (region). On 19 November, the Institute for the Study of War provided confirmation that Russian forces from Kherson are reinforcing positions in Donetsk and Luhansk and stated that “Russia will also likely commit additional mobilized forces in the coming weeks, given that mobilized units of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have finished their training in Brest Oblast, Belarus” The Institute’s assessment being that Russia will use these new forces to secure their position in Luhansk; and to support more aggressive offensive operations in Donetsk.
Strategically, the war against Ukraine’s people continues with ongoing rocket and drone attacks that by the end of this week had significantly damaged the country’s power infrastructure. Some reports claiming that about a quarter of Ukrainians were without power this week. This campaign is set to continue with reports that Iranian drone manufacturers are helping set up production in Russia.
Last week, we discussed the increasing communication between United States President Joe Biden and his contemporary President Xi Jin Ping of China (See – A sudden attack of sensibleness! And; not just in Russia either!) and highlighted the potential for de-escalation because of these powers working together. Then this week, the importance of this relationship was under scored as Xi Jin Ping reined in Putin’s nuclear rhetoric; stating at the G20 Summit that “Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear wars must not be fought” a clear indictment of Russian threats and a comment that brought an immediate response from the Kremlin. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov claiming that Russia had never threatened the use of nuclear weapons.
The speed of Russia’s response and the categorical denial of any such threats, no matter how preposterous clearly demonstrates Putin’s hard strategic truth. Once, the smirking and smug leader of the anti-West; his war in Ukraine and careless nuclear threats have destroyed Russia strategically. NATO is stronger than ever and now includes the powerful and once neutral Finland and Sweden on Russia’s north flank. On the southern flank, Turkey is growing in power and demonstrably unafraid of Russia, the Black Sea is no longer a Russian lake. (See – Autumn in Ukraine, warlords arise and Russia loses the Black Sea) Economically, socially and politically Russia is isolated. And; now Putin has to accept that Russia must take its lead from China. Quickly, responding to the Chinese President’s statements and clarifying that nuclear weapons are ‘off the table’. If Putin, ever reflects on his actions he must regret this war terribly.
But, does he have a way out? Can he rescue victory from the jaws of defeat? Perhaps. We can see that the Russians are playing a much smarter game in recent weeks. And; General Surovakin’s unfolding plan makes sense. By withdrawing from Kherson, Russia stole the initiative and now if Ukraine wants to maintain momentum it needs to find a new line of attack. While the Ukrainians assess their options and redeploy, Russia has time to do its own planning and we can see that plan unfolding as follows:
- Stabilise the defensive lines in the north and south. Dig in along the Kremina – Svatove Line and stop the Ukrainians getting further into Luhansk. Dig in along the Dnipro River and stop the Ukrainians advancing east along the coast.
- Use newly generated forces to restart offensive operations in Donetsk, probably focused on capturing Bhakmut first then Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
- Bomb Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
The overall aim being to bring Ukraine to a battlefield stalemate and force them to negotiate.
This plan makes sense and appears to have a level of commitment within the Kremlin. So in the next few weeks it is likely that we will see:
- Continuing stabilisation of the Kherson front. Although there are reports of Ukrainian crossings of the Dnipro River it is highly unlikely that the Ukrainians will be able to cross the river in sufficient numbers to start a new offensive, so expect this area to remain static.
- However, if the Ukrainians do cross the Dnipro River in numbers, it is likely that we will see a sudden collapse of Russian forces and possibly even a push into the Crimea because Ukraine; being able to cross the Dnipro River in large numbers indicates that Russia’s forces are falling apart.
- Russian attacks on Ukrainian infra-structure will continue. The Russians are working with Iran to produce drones in Russia so expect things to get worse. Shooting down drones is exhausting Ukraine’s stocks of surface to air missiles so we will see more Russian air force activity as defences weaken.
- A large-scale Russian offensive in or near Donetsk. New mobilised troops, trained in Belarus are now arriving in Donetsk and after withdrawing from Kherson, General Surovakin needs to demonstrate success.
- Don’t expect major Ukrainian offensives at this time. It will take time to reduce numbers around Kherson and move them elsewhere. Instead expect the Ukrainians to dig in, consolidate and prepare for offensive action early in the New Year when the ground freezes.
In summary, we are in a new phase of the war; political tensions inside the Kremlin appear to be suppressed and we can see a centrally developed and tactically sensible plan for the campaign. By holding the ground taken and concentrating on one line of attack; Russia may be able to force a stalemate. A stalemate that combined with the strategic campaign targeting Ukraine’s civilian infra-structure may drag Ukraine to the negotiating table. The world needs to keep supporting Ukraine and supplying the weapons, training and money the country needs to stop this plan working.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
A smart assessment. Strategically Ukraine will want to break the land bridge and retake Mariupol. The Deniper River is not an obstacle for that. However it will be a very difficult operation to pull off. Such an attack would be exposed on both flanks. And up against a reinforced Russian Army. The 300,000 recruits will make some difference. Nevertheless, at some point Ukraine will try.
However, if the Ukrainians assess that it is just way too difficult (whether as a result of an actual attempt, or an intelligence based military assessment), then you can already see the shape of a ceasefire/peace deal.
Such a deal does mean that Russia would keep some of Ukraine, more than they had in 2014. It is a bit like the outcome of the Finnish Winter War. Finland won to a substantial extent, but nevertheless had to give up territory. Part of the result was that Finland broke from Russia and became part of the West. Ukraine has clearly already made such a shift. It will include being part of the EU, perhaps ultimately part of NATO.
In the first instance, this will be ceasefire deal, not a peace settlement. Ukraine won’t settle for peace on this strategic situation. But ultimately they will have to do so. Membership of the EU will be dependent on that. As indeed would be NATO membership. Both organisations require members to have settled borders.
Good points.
This isn’t pre WW ll. Finland has no relevance. Borders are sacred now. Ukraine at best can admit to a ceasefire. But it is your price they’ll ask for. That the drongo Russians never come over the border again, supported by Europe.
Some sort of peace deal would be preferable in this circumstance
Russia is consolidating its positions as Winter begins to bite.
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‘ the archaic state of Russia’s tech’-I thought they had the most lethal hypersonic missiles on the globe.
The U.S needs to negotiate.Ukraine is being destroyed.
The Ukrainian airspace is the most monitored in the world. NATO will have seen in real time who shot the missile that landed in Poland. NATO Knew from the outset that it was Ukraine who fired it.
Good comments Ben. Thanks.
Now that the Americans have effectively neutered the nuclear threat, they’re free to provide the Ukrainians with some more advanced tools with which to finish off the Russians. Longer range HIMARS? Aircraft?
Awaiting the Putards to refute everything Ben has to say and tell us it’s all going swimingly well as the Russians continue to beat back the Nazis, quoting some peodophile military expert to support their case.
Yup has been a while since I have heard the Putin Apologists lauding Scott Ritter . . in fact the Apologists seem to be strangely quiet these last few weeks . . I guess war crimes can do that.
We are not as excitable as those addicted by western propaganda.
IMHO, name calling shows how vacant/weak your ideas are about this tradgedy.
Military professionals ie. the military industrial complex?
Yes I agree we shouldn’t allow the fake news to run wars, like they are currently doing.
It would appear that there are also a few politicians that do not like the thought of nuclear war or a potential WW3 as well.
So in summary Russia’s plan is to freeze to death all those so-called Russian’s (which according to Putin and co, is what Ukrainians really are), by taking out their infrastructure. What is Putin going to give these people for Christmas? Cancer?
What happened to liberating all those folks from western oppression? You could still wage a military campaign against the Ukranian forces without subjecting the people, you are supposed to be rescuing, to that. After all we are told by some that Russia has such superior forces, what’s the hurry?
polish attempt at gleiwitz-ing a stray missle they’re champing at the bit to get into belyorussia,,,,and if the ukraine let’s their troops in they will never go home to poland but set up polish enclaves….the ukraine should be very wary.
A totally unnecessary war, and one which would highly likely not have occurred if US Imperialism was not so intent on surrounding and subjugating Russia, which has long been an ex “super power” by any stretch.
It is still obviously very disturbing that the authoritarians at the top of Russian society would embark on a shooting war of such scale in 2022.
Anyone with even half a brain–which Wayne’s comment above well illustrates–knows one thing for sure; namely that there are only two ends to this–escalation to nukes, or a series of negotiations. And the latter is the useful and more humane solution.
It has been an unsavoury spectacle to see arm chair warriors enjoying this conflict almost as some twisted form of spectator sport.
Russell Brand recently had an interview with an expert on the Uklraine war and says the MSM continually lies and misrepresents what’s really happening. Well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwwHLxM8fhE
So the 14,000 Donbass residents killed by Ukraine since 2014 was also a ‘tragic mistake’? And Peeni Henare wants to give these racists NZ taxpayer money for bombs when we can’t even feed and house our own?
14,000 killed buy Ukraine. Please supply proof.
Dr Google, be our guest.
All you folk criticising Ukraine and America, did you approve of the Russian invasion prior to it? Didn’t hear much from you then.
Since WW ll we’ve been against conquest per se, and it’s made for a lot more peace. But youse know better. I really would like to hear you approve of conquest prior, righteous pilgrims. Hard to take you serious afterward.
Yeah Sum, boring. Years of Ukraine shelling their own Russian citizens which useful fools like you ignored.
Another zero citation fact free accusation followed with an ad hominem attack on another commenter by Nick J.
Without citing any evidence, Nick J. tries hard to justify Russia’s invasion and war against Ukraine
Time after time, Nick J repeatedly refuses to provide any citation, or provide any evidence, at all, to back up his claim that Ukraine has been shelling its own Russian citizens, as his justification for supporting this war.
That’s what’s boring.
ANTI CAPITALIST RESISTANCE
We’ve all heard it time and time again. Whether it is an argument in support of Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, or just as often, opposed to it but claiming both sides are equally at fault, we hear that “the Ukrainian army killed 14,000 ethnic Russians in Donbas between 2014 and 2022.”
Here’s just one example among thousands of examples regurgitated, with never a simple fact-check, all over the left and right media: According to pro-Putin writer Max Parry, “For what the late Edward S. Herman called the ‘cruise missile Left,’ the 14,000 ethnic Russians killed in Donbass by the Ukrainian army since 2014 are ‘unworthy victims,’….
….the implication here is that there was a continual, ongoing bloody conflict (allegedly all caused by the Ukrainian army incessantly “shelling ethnic Russians”) right up to the Russian invasion. The invasion, in a sense, is simply the continuation of the ongoing bloodshed, at a perhaps slightly higher level…..
…..The Russian invasion, which resulted in thousands of deaths and untold injuries, destruction and dispossession, was “in response” (allegedly) to the zero deaths in Donbas in 2022….
…..The total number of civilian fatalities from 2016 to 2022 was therefore 276, about half due to landmines. Of course, any number of deaths is far too many, and neither the Ukrainian side nor the Russia-owned side should be excused for violations and war crimes that resulted in civilian deaths.
But as there were 3,404 civilians killed from 2014 to 2022 before the Russian invasion, that means that 3128 of these (92%) occurred in 2014-15, when no serious observer denies the direct intervention of the Russian armed forces, mercenaries and heavy weapons in the conflict…..
…..Whatever the case, and whatever one’s views on the relative responsibility of the two sides over these years, the continual and decisive reduction of fatalities, injuries and ceasefire violations between 2015 and 2022 – from 3128 civilian fatalities in 2014-2015 to 0 in early 2022 – puts the lie to not only Putin’s claim that his bloody invasion, with its countless thousands of deaths, millions uprooted and cataclysmic destruction, was in response to “genocide” of “ethnic Russians,” but also to the more subtle plague on both your houses case that the Ukrainian army was waging a relentless war against “ethnic Russians” in Donbas.
The Anti*Capitalist Resistance Editorial Board may not always agree with all of the content we repost but feel it is important to give left voices a platform and develop a space for comradely debate and disagreement.
https://anticapitalistresistance.org/on-the-fantastic-tale-that-the-ukrainian-army-killed-14000-ethnic-russians-in-donbas-between-2014-and-2022/
Pat, your ignorance of ample evidence of criminality by Ukro Nazis for decades is beyond comprehension. You claim to be a Marxists yet here you sit with neocon capitalists and Nazis. How do you reconcile that?
The kindest thing that can be said about Pat is that he is a tragic joke.
Best wishes as ever, Pat. Hope you’re heading out to the Hardinge Rd beaches sometime soon. So many of the Right commenters here are underinformed fools. Nick J with ‘Ukro Nazis’ makes himself a laughing stock in the world of reason.
Sum, are you too frightened to investigate Ukrainian Nazis and Banderites? Or too lazy? Can’t stand the truth?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018867728/they-know-we-re-coming-for-them-former-nz-soldier-says-a-ukrainian-victory-feels-possible
scott Ritter speaking about the missile attack on Poland ,,,, with some of the same conclusions as Ben ,,,, but with more details https://youtu.be/C_-ycZtFzho?t=1027
Not sure that Russia will need to launch an offensive, looks very likely that Ukraine will implode. With the Reps winning the House the money may dry up. Looks like even the hawkes in Washington won’t escalate and get the picture that nukes are a no go. Western militaries have no ammo left to supply to Ukraine, Germany say they have two days worth, France seven. Europe is out of gas but more importantly diesel which still comes from Russia via third parties.
Meanwhile the Chinese, Indians and non Western world all trade freely with Russia, the sanctions don’t hurt and Vlad is only criticised at home for not being tough enough.
Then this, the power is down in Ukraine due to Russian missiles we are constantly told are running out.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
Who needs a Russian offensive? Seems Vlad may go slow as it merely ratchets the pain in Europe, destroys NATO and erodes US power. Why inflict or take the casualties?
And you are applauding Putin every step of the way Nick J. Shame on you!
If you can get your head around it I’m merely providing a realistic viewpoint as opposed to the mindless propaganda nonsense.
So Gad, if you like let’s call you an Azov Nazi fan boy, and a neocon acolyte, or perhaps a Dem wokester authoritarian. Or a paid troll, who cares? We can call each other these things, it won’t make any difference to what is actually happening. And that is that Russia has all the advantages despite the bollocks we keep being fed.
As an aside our government appears to be inviting Zhelensky to speak to our Parliament… I’m interested in how our major trading partner (China) might view this? These things are important realities, terms of trade matter.
“…..let’s call you an Azov Nazi fan boy, and a neocon acolyte, or perhaps a Dem wokester authoritarian.” Nick J.
More venomous ad hominem attacks on other commenters by Nick J, backed with zero facts, or citations, to justify his venom.
“…..our government appears to be inviting Zhelensky to speak to our Parliament” Nick J.
The president of Ukraine may be invited to address our parliament. Nick J. wants to silence his message.
In an ‘aside’ Nick J says parliament should put our overseas trade with China above listening to what the President of Ukraine has to say. This is a call to put mercenary financial interests above principle and freedom of information and free speech.
“Russia has all the advantages” Nick J.
Russia may have ‘All the Advantages’ But Russia is obviously losing, and will continue to keep losing until they are driven back to their legally recognised international borders by the people of Ukraine. Like the US in Vietnam who right up until the very end, failed to comprehend how they were beaten, the Russian Federation invaders and their supporters will also fail to comprehend how they were beaten.
He Tangata, He Tangata, He Tangata.
Pat, learn to read nuance. I said I could call him that but would it change the facts? You are shooting from the hips.
Pat, learn to read nuance. I said I could call him that but would it change the facts? You are shooting from the hips.
Pat, there’s no power and water in Ukraine, soon no gas, no oil, no ammo. Its winter, the Russians have taken off the gloves. That’s fact.
And Pat, quoting he tangata..how ironic, did you know the tangata of Donbass are Russian?
Banksy vs. Tankys
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/12/mysterious-banksys-artwork-appears-on-destroyed-homes-in-ukraine#:~:text=Anonymous%20street%20artist%20Banksy%20appears%20to%20confirm%20he,a%20destroyed%20building%20in%20Borodyanka%20%5BEd%20Ram%2FGetty%20Images%5D
Banksy, whose identity remains unknown, posted on Instagram on Friday evening pictures of street artwork on a destroyed building, captioned “Borodyanka, Ukraine”.
Borodyanka, a suburb of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, has been heavily bombed since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour on February 24….
…..One mural shows a man resembling Russia’s President Vladimir Putin being defeated by a flip during a judo match by a child.