Latest Poll shows the Right’s celebration they have already won 2023 is smug hubris


Latest internal poll makes for more bruising news for the Right…

Labour just behind Nats, NZ First on the cusp in new poll

A new poll has Te Pāti Māori in the driver’s seat and a likely Labour-Green government, while NZ First is on the cusp of the 5 per cent threshold to make it back into Parliament.

A corporate poll from Labour’s pollster Talbot Mills, obtained by the Herald, had National in the lead on 35 per cent, no change from last month’s poll.

Labour was down one point to 34 per cent.

The Greens were steady on 9 per cent, while Act fell one point from 11 per cent to 10 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori was on 3.2 per cent, up one point, while NZ First was on 4.4 per cent, up 0.4 points. TOP was on 2 per cent.

…the Right seem to believe they’ve already won the election next year and are basing this on the current level of animosity towards Jacinda.

TDB Recommends

That seems a very weak premise to base an election win on.

As TDB has been arguing for sometime, the 2023 election will be fought on who middle NZ fear most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

With an economic rescission looming, which Government do people fear most?

That answer will determine the election.

Winston’s comeback can’t be ruled out and TOP may still be required by either side to win.

Luxon’s sudden desire to out ACT ACT on law and order is just another example of how desperate National have become to take back ACT vote. Putting 10 year olds in ankle bracelets isn’t aimed at the middle voter, it is aimed at ACT voters because National know a double digit ACT is an enormous political threat to National.

It’s pure opportunism by National and it reeks of desperation.


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  1. Dr Gaurav Sharma will win the Hamilton West by election on December 10.

    At the 2023 election, he’ll WIN his seat again and he’ll bring several list MP’s to parliament.

    Dr Gaurav Sharma party will hold the balance of power, not NZ First, TOP or the Greens

  2. With Luxon at the helm I think they will struggle to keep 35% and i have to agree with you, they are acting totally dumb at the moment (as opposed to ‘normally’ dumb). Can you imagine the political capital Seymour would be racking up currently if he was in charge of the Natz? Rather than doing his job, Luxon is gambling on probabilities and still hasnt learned to take the temperature in the room.

    Every time something comes out from the Natz, you are left thinking either WTF or well that’s underwhelming.

    If Luxon isnt rolled soon along with them focusing their efforts at Seymour rather than Labour, I cant see them winning.

  3. The right seem to be sleep walking into the election they aren’t even aware that NZF are now polling @4% and will stupidly attack NZF and Winston, like they do every election, then cry he wont go into a coalition with them.

  4. Noone should be celebrating or betting on 2023 yet.

    The last three general elections were all wildly different results than what polls told us a year out from them.

    In late 2013 Cunliffe was polling at 35+% and NZ first was expected to be the king maker but national won a landslide.

    In 2016 national was polling in the high 40s and sometimes 50s and 8 weeks out from the election labour got Jacinda and gained 14 seats and negotiated a coalition and even after the election people were making wrong predictions.

    In 2019 national was usually leading or neck and neck and the election looked like it’d be a razor thin election. It wasn’t.

    Honestly noone really knows and it could go either way. There’s everything to play for…

    The main grievance people have with labour is that it hasn’t done much on housing, poverty, affordability and quality of life.

    Nationals not offering much if anything on that front and is just focusing on social policy grievances and the mid terms we just saw that isn’t a successful strategy.

    If labour can restore it’s trust in those who are disappointed and deliver some big wins and run on something like universal dental labour would be miles ahead.

    If national wakes up and realizes that consvertism cant survive when entire generations are locked out of the housing market because people tend to get a bit more conservative when they buy a house and by locking entire generations out they are just ensuring young people get even more radical. If they wake up and realize they need hundreds of thousands of younf home owners asap they could win.

    Either way this election is anyone’s to lose or win.

  5. I don’t think Chris Luxon will win against Jacinda Ardern and I don’t think either major political party have a long term vision. In a sense it’s become all about defence and protection.

  6. Yes that is the choice, until WP says neither.

    WP offers centre-right with National and centre-left with Labour. Leaving ACT and Greens/MP as mere supporters.

  7. If wishes were horses Bomber… Not sure about Luxon trying to out-ACT ACT though? Shouldn’t he be going after the Labour/Nat swing voter? Seems a bit of stupid to canniblize your key partnership vote to me.

  8. Our politics is still neoliberal which means our politics is merely a distraction. The rich billionaires are in control and we can get fucked because they don’t care. And why should they? We can be of no threat to them because we’re too busy being a threat to ourselves.


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