BREAKING: TVNZ Poll – National + ACT can form Government

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
97
2543

LABOUR – 34

NATIONAL – 37

ACT – 9

GREEN – 9

MĀORI PARTY – 2

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NZF – 3

13% – Don’t know

Big Poll tonight.

Firstly though, how great is it that John Campbell is hosting the News?

He’s so good, I actually watch TVOne News now.

So good.

To the Poll, exactly what TDB predicted would happen has happened, we are seeing fracturing of the political spectrum post Covid, look at the smaller parties…

…that’s 7% to  fringe parties PLUS the 13% don’t knows – that’s a 20% electorate angry enough to become politically engaged in a. country where civic apathy is the default setting.

Jacinda is more popular than Luxon because Luxon has all the personality of a gumboot.

National have stalled, Labour grind up 1, the Left and Right of ACT and Greens are static, Māori Party is under polled here and NZ First is in hunting territory for the election.

TDB is predicting a fractured MMP spectrum and a full Parliament where overhangs and odd quirks erupt mirroring the spastic pain and anger of the post Covid electorate.

We are going through a shared Post Traumatic Stress Disorder where polarisation and rationality rule.

This will be an election of cults and wounds.

People will vote with their feelings in 2023, not their thinkings.

The level of rhetoric is going to become an insanity.

These are going to be challenging times for New Zealand.

 

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97 COMMENTS

  1. Sounds good to me. National and ACT plus a few others.
    Now we’ll get some progress on reducing personal taxes for everybody.

    Time to see GST go up to 20%, personal tax go to down to 20% flat tax with no threshold or tax bands.
    Business tax at 20% to stimulate the economy.

    ACT and National, will get this country going for business in NZ

      • ‘Ask not what your country can do for you, but for what you can do for your country.’ And that’s to vote National and ACT.
        We have a plan to make NZ a world-class free-market economy.

      • They need school cuts because the gLabour Government is paying billions to schools and kids still can’t read, write or do arithmetic.
        An education voucher system will fix the problems, because it will reward higher performing schools.

    • What a nob. Sounds like you are one of the self entitled rich pricks. So the poor bugger on $22 per hour gets $17.60 in his hand plus pays another 20% on his living expenses so he actually has $14.08 to live on. In the meantime every one else gets a pay rise. And the government has to cut services to the bone.
      More dead people because of shit hospitals, roads and so on.
      Don’t forget your caviar next time you go to Farris. Bet you don’t go to PaknSav.

    • That would be great, but the IRD says GST becomes ‘leaky’ at higher percentages because of the incentive for fraud – we see lots of revenue lost in ‘cashies’.

      • You are right Andrew, as you very often are.
        But, there are ways that the policy-makers of the right can appease and/or assuage the fears of the bleating lefties by measures to close up this loophole.
        A minor sticking point in a thoroughly costed and fit-for-purpose tax policy.

    • “ACT and National, will get this country going for business in NZ”

      Exactly, ACT and Nats represent the interests of the 1%. Driving true NZers further into debt and poverty since the 80s.

      • So, you reckon Labour is invested in helping the poor, despite the results they achieve? LOL

        Labour represents university educated apparatchiks but relies on the votes of suckers like you to keep them in office.

        • Says a person who supports the right bloc who will take the country further backwards and represent corporates.

          • Agree with you 120% Andrew. Borrowing to stimulate the economy like Labour and the Greens have is counterproductive, as the falling value of the NZ dollar shows.

            Labour has got it wrong as usual, as they did in 1984 to 1988 when they failed to make the hard decisions towards a truly free-market economy.

            Now, in 2023 with a brave National and ACT alliance, we have the chance to have a world-leading economy which will be the envy of modern 21st century counties.

            20% business tax; personal wealth for workers with flat-tax 20%; and 20% indirect tax to improve personal wealth is the blueprint to move New Zealand forward into the second half of the 21st century.

            We just have to have the politicians with backbone to cut through the local, myopic, self-interest and nambly-pamby-leftie-liberal thinking and think of the people of New Zealand.

            We need an ACT and National coalition that works to get a free-market economy installed.

  2. Here’s a thought. For each month of the next 12 months Jacinda says she’ll do something meaningful and necessary…and she does it! Not the usual, not a a bit, not mostly, but actually keeps her promises.

    Labour erase the bad credibility image and arrest the rot and win in 2023.

    Or … they keep doing more of this and kiss goodbye the Labour Party. Permanently!
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-structure-of-impunity

  3. NZF might end up being the king maker and it will cause the right to go spastic. They can’t work with him, they have to attack Winston and the NZF party because they have a spastic irrational hatred for him.
    And why would NZF work with National when they treat Winston with such disrespect.

    • National and ACT don’t need Winston Mikesee and Labour won’t touch him with a disinfected bargepole.

      Luxon said he might work with Tamaki, “Luxon last Tuesday refused to rule out working with Freedoms NZ after Destiny Church leader Tamaki led a protest of about 2000 people to Parliament and announced the party.” https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/473937/luxon-rejects-tamaki-s-freedoms-nz-casts-criticism-as-follow-the-squirrel-distraction,

      then later backtracked and said he ‘ruled out working with Tamaki’

      “If you want me to rule it out I’m happy to do that, but what the issue is I’m not interested in playing a parlour game of rule-in, rule-out – a beltway game about what we think of other coalition arrangements at this point in time.”

      It’s clear Luxon doesn’t think he needs Winston Key must have advised Luxon of that fact:

      Winston revealed in 2011 what John Key said in the teapot tapes: https://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/peters-reveals-details-tea-tape
      “Mr Key referred to NZ First’s elderly constituents as “dying”, Mr Peters said.
      “[Constituents[ are dying is the description Mr Key uses of hundreds of thousands of people who happen to be older.”

      We on the right don’t need Winston Peters FULL STOP.

      Tamaki has a growing base of potential voters on the right of the spectrum.

      Bye bye Winston, National and ACT don’t need your dinosaur and Muldoonist thinking any more, and Rob’s Mob will no doubt agree!

  4. National has nothing to offer. Labour is failing on a protest vote of punishment.

    National was punished last time, now it’s Te Governments turn.

    • Vote Freedom Party, or don’t vote at all.
      The Freedom movement would love to have New Zealand run by clear-thinking citizens, rather then the stayed old parties of the right and left.
      Let the freedom movement govern New Zealand, by the people, for the people!

  5. You almost have to admire how good a job the regime media do of convincing people to switch between the left and right wings of the uniparty and think they’re getting something different, especially with a right-uniparty brand as toxic as Luxon.

  6. Martyn, this is only a poll.

    A few percent on fringe parties aren’t that significant midterm and it’s likely that voter intentions will consolidate as we get nearer to the election. You read too much into the numbers.

    Secondly, Ardern’s popularity remains high because she gets a lot of free coverage in the media, especially when doing overseas tours. Coming into the election when coverage is evened out by the debates, this will change. Famously Helen Clark had only a 9% personal rating prior to winner the election in 1999.

    Lastly, the trend is more important than the actual numbers. Look at the trend over the last year: Labour steadily losing ground and National gaining.

  7. Not surprising as Labeen seem more interested in wooing big business interests than following their own advisors and seem to think that the middle class will keep voting for a political party that seems to undermine them – it is just the poor and the rich for Labour – the opposite of what Labour used to be, for the working people. aka middle class.

    Do I think National and ACT will be better, nope but I guess people want to redirect Labeen back to supporting people not business all the time.

  9. The surprising result here is that Luxon 41% and Ardern 46% are so close in a 1v1 situation. It shows Luxon has repaired National’s brand and emphasises the swing to National.
    Labour need to sell their achievements way better than they have, particularly re housing. Do people expect their policy changes to work overnight?-well they won’t but they will have an effect in the next few years. Also they need to front foot co-governance. If they get caught on the crease they will be out.

  10. Sounds good to me. National and ACT plus a few others.
    Now we’ll get some progress on reducing personal taxes for everybody.
    – Yeah – don’t bet on that. Polls have been notoriously inaccurate since Trump and his “brand” of politics was released to the world. Another equally possible scenario is that Labour win by a landslide and again can govern alone – something National will never be able to do.
    Time to see GST go up to 20%, personal tax go to down to 20% flat tax with no threshold or tax bands.
    Business tax at 20% to stimulate the economy.
    Another possibility might be GST reduced to 10% (eliminated for fresh and unprocessed foods), personal tax to increase for those ‘earning’ over $150K p/a to 40%, $70-150K p/a 30%, $30-$70K p/a 20% and under $30K p/a 15%.
    Business tax at 25% to stimulate the economy – not that this is currently vital.
    Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) introduced to reduce inequities in the taxation system. Having your investment tied up in capital should NOT allow one to avoid paying their fair share. The exact details of these taxes would need to be debated.

    ACT and National, will get this country going for business in NZ
    – Yeah Nah.

  11. The preferred prime minister rating really seals the deal. Luxon being 6% away from an incumbent prime minister is crazy.

    Labour have all the tools they need to actually get stuck in and change the narrative and do some good change but instead they’ve spent the last year twiddling their thumbs with no coherent vision.

    I mean how can this labour party campaign for a third term? They ran out of steam after last year’s budget and have ruled out anything meaningful. They’ve spent two years unable to communicate their own policies.

    How can labour ever campaign in future to be a party of change when people will say you had a sole majority and did nothing.

    The pm hasn’t been able to communicate a policy in her entire career and she stopped being able to communicate with the public and media a year ago.

    They’ve been losing in the polls since March and have done absolutely nothing to fight back all year because they don’t know how and are too arrogant to try.

    Writing is on the wall the best we can hope for is NZf, Maori party or top are needed by the right and that one of those parties keeps act out of cabinet and stops the right from going full Ruth Richardson

  12. You can forget about getting any form of payrise if National gets back in. It will be like 1990-99. Everyone was basically stuck on the same wage all through that decade – worker pay was as flat as a pancake.

    • Course there’s going to be payrises. Unemployment is at 3.5%

      ACT and National need to open up the borders to immigrant workers who are prepared to do the work, insread of those unembloyable bottom-feeders on the dole who sit and watch TV and play Playstation all day, while getting a taxpayer-funded benefit.

      National and ACT’s ideas to make tax simple is a winner – 20% everything – 20% business tax to stimulate business and the economy. 20% flat tax rate for everyone to put more money in your pocket, or for you to save, or Kiwisave or invest. 20% GST with a reduction, or removal for food.

      Winner winner chicken dinner for National and ACT and the New Zealand and immigrant seasonal workers towards the end of 2023.

      • Winner winner chicken dinner for National and ACT and the New Zealand and immigrant seasonal workers towards the end of 2023.

        But another 9 years without increases for health workers, teachers, supermarket workers and cleaners. So that’s all they will be able to afford under Nact,…chicken dinners!

    • The Daily Blog is just getting started, 2023 General Election coverage will be–foot to the floor, intravenous meth mandate for writers, quad turbo boost with nitrous mega tanks, 12 wheel last chance power drive–it will make Mad Max Fury Road look like pensioner day at the Countdown carpark.

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