What does Māori Party stratospheric polling say about election 2023?
The latest Roy Morgan Poll represents a seismic shift in the NZ political spectrum. The stratospheric Māori Party result of 5% is unprecedented in NZ politics.
The highest the Māori Party has ever achieved electorally is half of that result back in 2008.
What is happening that is generating such spectacular results and what does it mean for the 2023 election?
The first thing to note is the incredible work The Māori Party has put into their social media culture. Research in the last election found that the Māori Party had the most positive social media campaign of all parties. This optimism and positivity has built strong social networks.
The second thing is basic demographics, the Māori population is younger, their median age is almost a decade younger than Pakeha, and the next generation are confident in their identity.
The third thing is the extraordinary work by Māori health community outreach that reignited and rekindled connection to Māori and helped reconnect them with civics.
The fourth, and I think most powerful driver of this extraordinary jump in Māori Party support is that the grotesque articulation of exceptionally anti-Māori rhetoric by the right over co-governance, 3 Waters and the promise to cut the Ministry of Māori Affairs has driven Māori who previously had refused to engage democratically to ensure that they do.
With the possibility of Adrian Rurawhe standing down from Te Tai Hauāuru now that he is Speaker, the Māori Party could pick up an extra Māori seat alongside a 5% party list.
This would make the Māori Party a Queen maker in any possible Labour/Green Government.
The political right in New Zealand, once they realise Labour’s need to rely on the Māori Party will ramp up their race baiting messaging which in turn will solidify that Māori political backlash.
2023 is shaping up to be an incredibly polarising and bitter political battle for the direction of this country, part of winning will be the need to reach across to the losing side because healing will be required after this election.
First published on Waatea News.
We are beyond healing. The lasting legacy of Ardern is the partisanship of NZ politics.
On the Maori party – when the electoral cycle proper begins in mid-2023 their radical policies will scare their newly won demographic of white, single females under the age of 40. Will poll less than NZ Firsat on election day.
That might be wishful thinking, Frank. Nearly every under-40 white female I know is woke, and a keen supporter of LINO and/or the so-called Greens. Maybe I need to mingle more.
Some would argue that John Key was the most divisive PM, some would argue the Helen Clarke was the most divisive because lightbulbs and smacking. I think the current polarization has been around longer, it’s just impossible to ignore now. Blaming one political party or leader is futile.
Quite correct standalone and this has been highlighted by the high confidence vote in James…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/james-shaw-re-elected-green-co-leader-six-weeks-after-ouster/SG4XUFT7JEC5P5IW2A2FEWXEMY/
It’s almost a guaranteed Lab/Green/Maori next year. The only uncertainty would be the continued dirty politics campaign by the right.
They could replace the Greens? Awesome!
OMG Martyn. You are really pinning your hopes to this one poll. Good luck with that.
Explain to me again why we need these seperate Maori Seats as there are now many Maori in parliment voted in by the general voters made up of all races in NZ .
Co- governance goes beyond that Trevor.
Is that good,I’m sure there are many who think yes.
The Queen thought so Bob.
Be careful what you wish for Martyn.
waititi and packer might appeal to the desperate and disaffected but they are divisive and racist in their own right. MMP encourages these weird minority governments that haven’t shown much value in my opinion. So with the Maori party the Greens along with inept Labour. What could possibly go wrong. It would be mutant. A dog with two tails that will wag for it. Can’t wait.
It’s just a ‘anomaly’.
Just means that in the poll people responded as if it’s a protest vote.
Not Labour, not the eco terrorist gweenies and not the Nats.
It’ll go back to 1.2%-1.5% on the day.
‘stratospheric’ polling….*cough cough snigger*
Ohhhh dear.
” The highest the Māori Party has ever achieved electorally is half of that result back in 2008 ”
On a tide of anti Clark – Cullen foreshore and seabed legislation.
And out of revenge they got into bed with the shyster who was more than willing to use them to achieve the ” man of the people ” including Maori to send the message of ‘ We govern for everyone ‘ bullshit marketing campaign and push their own limited agenda that the shyster and others would allow them to.
Given the opportunity to prop up a Nasty Nat -ACT government in what will be a tight MMP parliament the Maori party will once again slip between the sheets of the neo liberal bed and take whatever crumbs are offered.
They WILL NEVER act in the interest’s of the constituencies’ that Bomber thinks they will.
It is just another charade.
Well, between my much brighter cousin and me, I think it’s about the lack of force for the people since the end of the Alliance. So, thinkers , three percent, mebbe?
Well, at least, he’s ‘gotten on’. The Scots meaning of brightness.