The geopolitical tensions created by Covid, slumping economic global growth, war and the climate crisis are rushing together with extreme speed.
They will impact us and force a change in vision whether we like it or not.
Xi:
Xi is fighting to gain God powers in November. While a 3rd term is a fair certainty, his appointment forever is on weaker ground because of his zero Covid stance which has damaged the economy and society compounded by an unseen before heat wave that has forced the economy off line. This lack of economic growth is causing enormous societal pressures and a ratcheting up of authoritarian powers. Xi’s economic weakness is causing social tensions in a country shaped by peasant revolutions. The need to make a dramatic external show of force to nationalistically rally the nation suggests some type of major military offensive against Taiwan. A direct invasion would be madness and the lesson Xi seems to have taken from Putin is to keep it simple stupid. My guess would be that China invades the Kinmen Island or Matsu Islands. Interestingly it was reported that a Chinese drone was shot down over the Kinmen Islands yesterday. Expect Xi to launch an enormous and overwhelming use of force against either of these Islands and dare America to do anything about it, China’s hawks will calculate Biden will not go to war over them taking an Island off Taiwan. The economic carnage caused by ever intensifying heat waves will hit China economically alongside any military action. With the conference in November, watch for any sudden ratcheting up of tensions.
Putin:
His desire for legacy in the tradition of Great Russian leaders alongside his deeply held Orthodox Christian beliefs have seen Putin force his country into a war it didn’t really want. He is poised for escalation and hurting the European Economy by cutting off gas, which he’s in the process of doing. Whether the Ukrainians over play their hand and cause a domestic terror attack on Russian soil which will unify behind Putin for full mobilisation of war OR the Russian security agencies stage a domestic attack (as was claimed during the 1999 Moscow Apartment bombings which justified atrocities in Chechnya), this war is not ending any time soon and the vast impact of base manufacturing ingredients and global food calories hasn’t truly hit yet. The only deviation from more war crimes and more global disruption is a palace coup against Putin. The truth is the only certainty that can be claimed in the Russia/Ukrainian war is that it’s only going to get worse. Remember, Putin only saw Dr Strangelove in 2017!
American Military Industrial Midterms:
The astounding win against Palin in Alaska should be terrifying Republicans that the Roe vs Wade madness is going to destroy them in the midterms! The MAGA cult has over run Republican moderates and the batshit crazy of those MAGA cultists are simply too extreme for an American electorate that is defined by its extremes. Biden’s impressive legislative agenda wins plus the Roe vs Wade backlash have woken Democrats and Independents alike to the extreme of Trump’s Orange Fascism. The other reason Democrats will do well is also because the American Military Industrial Complex will ensure they are returned. Democrats are so Hawkish on Russia and China that the corporate welfare poured into the American Military Industrial Complex is reaching obscene levels, over $50Billion so far. As long as Democrats keep feeding the Ukrainian war and continue to goad China, the Military Industrial Complex will ensure their success in the Midterms.
NZ:
Free market capitalism based on globalised trade is our mantra in NZ. America are our political masters while China is our economic overlords. Massive geopolitical shockwaves will force us to reconsider global supply chains over regional isolationism. This is coming whether we want it or not and we will be tested this year when Xi flex’s his muscles at the November conference and Putin gets his gas cut off revenge in Europe’s deepest part of winter.
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NordStream2 is available, BUT Germany wont allow it to open.
Germany and Canada held up an important pump for NordStream1.
So It is NOT just Putin doing all this.
Can we at least be a bit more honest during this crisis. Otheriwse any solution will be for the wrong scenario and necessarily fail.
A pithy description of Biden’s efforts to get Republicans elected – “Staging by Leni Riefenstahl”
Bomber is that you looking very young in Stuff’s front page hit piece today on Hanna Spierer????
It’s easy to see what the bigger threat is. Russians and Chinese aren’t systematically sending 15 year old girls to ISIS to be used as sex slaves to support their war against Syria. The American-run Five Eyes organisation that we’re a part of is.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadas-spy-agency-accused-of-nabbing-british-children-and-trafficking-them-to-islamic-state
They could do what China has been doing for decades. Just classify girls as “Young Brides” and “Workers”. Kind of like how they call the politically imprisoned “Workers” and “Trainees”.
https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1009774/chinas-abducted-women-1%2C252-derailed-lives-in-data
like we haven’t got euphemisms up the wazooo bruce.
Imagine trying to defend the American empire for doing something bad by pointing to a problem which is being solved by the CPC cracking down on it. Pretty laughable though Yank
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” Sun Tzu
Everyone’s heard of the above. So when it comes to China (& Russia since they are allies) maybe we should expect things to not be what they seem
Zero covid seems stupid. Russia’s invasion seems like it is a disastrous miscalculation… But maybe not
Could it be that the point is to cause a huge recession with very high interest rates? China can’t win a war, but maybe they can destroy the global financial system. Also factor in China buying oil with yuan (maybe soon) & a US civil war at some point when the economy is in the crapper, & things might be looking decidedly bad in a few years
A US civil war is an absolute best case scenario for the free world.
Best.
Case.
Scenario.
🙂
Hey – autism rates are rising. Sperm counts are dropping.
History eh?
It will be easier for china to take a large chunk of Siberia and the gas and oil reserves there than take Taiwan – and might well do so if Putin gets rolled – Taiwan can wait !
Taiwan doesn’t have the capability to nuke China into oblivion if China invades…
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