Monday’s bombshell revelation from the Pacific Forum that Kiribati has pulled out of the alliance to waltz into the arms of Beijing is still ringing around the region.
This represents the most significant encroachment of influence into the Pacific since Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This is the most provocative move by China to date into the direct sphere of influence of America.
Tarawa Government cabinet papers show they want to let China’s fishing fleet into the Phoenix Islands Protected Area as well as have some kind of operation on Kanton Island, using old American facilities there.
According to 1979 Kiribas/US Treaty of Friendship. America considers those facilities as theirs and will not tolerate China taking them over – how does America react if they are handed over to China?
This agreement allows China the ability strike at Pearl Harbour, Guam and American Samoa so my guess is American overkill…
United States Vice-President Kamala Harris is set to address leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum tomorrow, announcing a range of new strategic initiatives in what a political expert says is “unprecedented access” for a non-Forum member.
…the 1979 Kiribati/US Treaty of Friendship requires a 6 month pull out clause, so we will know China’s true intentions here if Kiribati triggers that clause before the end of the year.
This Kiribati encroachment is a remarkable intrusion by China directly into American sphere of influence in the Pacific, now we could bitch about America having that influence in the first place and the arrogance of them thinking they still have a sphere and how outrageous is that when Russia is simply doing the same in the Ukraine, but the fact still remains China has pushed directly into America’s sphere and they are directly challenging American hegemony in the Pacific.
We don’t want to get caught between what’s coming.
Wellington should refuse point blank to cave into Beijing or Washington and must put NZ and the interests off our Pacific Whānau first above and beyond the interests of China and America.
But this move into Kiribati is the canary in the coal mine. It would give China a strategic advantage against 3 crucial American Imperial outposts, if you can’t comprehend how America is going to respond to that level of threat, you don’t appreciate what just happened.
Dr Bryce Edwards has caught up to a debate TDB has been having for some time to increase Military GDP spending to 3%. Interestingly Labour have quietly ratcheted GDP military spending from just over 1% to just under 2%.
I believe that the climate crisis means we need a vastly larger military to cope with civil disasters and if we are attempting to distance ourselves from China and America, we need to make a decision to dramatically lift what we spend on the military for purely defensive capacity.
How would we go about defending the realm of NZ and all our economic exclusive zone?
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Interesting reading.
That 3% of GDP, where could we get that from?
Don’t the nasty Aussie banks export $6 billion or so yearly (that’s a guess, happy to be corrected), there’s your 3% right there.
@ Stan. I can do better than correct you, I can completely agree with you.
The AU Banksters kneel before the U$A banksters and the U$A banksters will, I bet you, kneel before The Mafioso style City of London cartel.
Have you seen this? Brought to The Daily Blog by @ Malcolm Evans.
The Spiders web
https://youtu.be/np_ylvc8Zj8
“Michael Oswald’s film The Spider’s Web reveals how at the demise of empire, City of London financial interests created a web of secrecy jurisdictions that captured wealth from across the globe and hid it in a web of offshore islands. Today, up to half of global offshore wealth is hidden in British jurisdictions and Britain and its dependencies are the largest global players in the world of international finance. “
Yes I think you’re right. This labour government has been notoriously crap at bringing the elite rich multinationals to justice. They’ve made some faint noises towards supermarkets but won’t even go near the banks. Obvious why – I suspect there’s the unwritten threat to any government that tries to take on the banks. Look at the Greek finance minister Varoufakis, if you read his book he mentions there was the actual threat of physical violence towards him and family if he took on the banks.
Hawaii doesn’t belong to America. The indigenous people must be liberated from the satanic American navy which continues to deliberately poison their natural environment and even their drinking water. Some DF-21’s dropped on the Naval Station sounds like just the ticket.
Let me guess – Hawaii doesn’t belong to America but Tibet and Taiwan belong to China yes?
The US Navy worships the devil as well yeah?
It’s interesting that you think it’s funny for American invaders to suppress the will of the Hawaiian people and poison their water, yank. If you don’t worship the devil, how would we humans be able to tell the difference?
Once again I am not American I am a New Zealander and your comments are increasingly so ridiculous I am left wondering a) Are you even human? b) If so are you operating out of some bunker somewhere in China?
You might also want to research what happened to the last crowd that attacked Pearl Harbour before you start shooting your mouth off.
Cry more yank. Your empire is senescent just like your President. Justice is coming.
John….I bet China would love to get their hands on Hawaii….
John White if you are not Maori then you do not originate from NZ so you are no different to those yanks you refer too.
remind where the maori came from? ‘bloody polynesian immigrants coming here and taking our maoriori jobs, send ’em back I say’.
see mfp horse shit is horseshit whether it comes from a tribal supremacist or a white supremasist same old shite
John White please tell me what rate you’re being paid by the CCP. Is it per word or per paragraph?
Do you have some leeway in what you write or are you told to stick strictly to the supplied script?
The annexation of Hawaii is quite an interesting story. You certainly don’t want to stand in the way of US business interests…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_Kingdom
I’m sorry but the concern over China is completely out of proportion.
Not because they ae not a highly aggressive imperialist nation, because they are.
But rather because they are heading towards irrelevance in the not too distant future for the following reasons:
1. The 1 child policy means that within 10 to 15 years, 50% of it’s people will be over 60. Not only does this mean a substantial reduction of workers, but additionally either an unimaginable burden on their society to support these people in their old age or massive social upheaval as they are abandoned to their devices.
2. An economy that is driven almost purely on a debt fuelled infrastructure and house building binge which has produced bridges to nowhere and enough empty housing to accommodate 100 million people.
3. An absence of almost any strategic alliances with significant world powers. Whilst America has NATO, Japan, South Korea and Australia, China has Russia, North Korea and a bunch of strategically insignificant allies. Additionally, whilst it is true that India is hardly an ally of the US, they despise China.
4. A fairly ineffective military that is marred with corruption like the Russians but also lacks any significant experience in the forge of battle.
China doesn’t have a one-child policy .It scrapped that in 2016
Imagine what all those millions are up to, in Shanghai and Beijing, in the lockdowns!
Imagine what all those millions are up to, in Shanghai and Beijing, in the lockdowns!
Yes, but not before the damage became irreversible.
For what its worth, they scrapped it in favour of a 2 child policy which had no effect as the country’s culture had changed such that people no longer, for the most part, want more than 1 child.
When this didn’t work, they adopted a 3 child policy which *surprise surprise* had no effect.
They are about to fall off a demographic cliff and no policy setting change can prevent this.
In the end, it is the CCP’s own stupidity that has doomed them to failure.
@Jay agreed, it is culture and affordability.
Intergenerational wealth tends to be locked up in housing, with high house prices and cost of living. Most workers are facing the prospect of supporting 2-4 parents and up to 4-8 grandparents (incl in-laws) so a second or third child is not imaginable even for many middle class professionals regardless of what the law says.
Access to abortion (once commonly mandated) is increasingly blocked or limited. Expect stronger incentives/coercion for women to have more babies as the 3 child policy fails to take effect.
China has the fastest ageing population in history with an average age in the mid-40s.
Even if every woman magically had a child tomorrow (or a lockdown baby boom), it will be 18-25 years before that cohort makes a dent in the Chinese economy so the population is ageing out (as are most developed nations). A shrinking number of workers has to support a growing number of elderly. As you noted earlier in the thread, age demographics is just one problem China (and many other nations) face.
Its impossible for us to defend our EEZ, do u know how big that territory is. Increasing spending on military when we have so many urgent issues to address on the home front is bonkers. If a super power wants to take us out, it can. We just have to keep good relationships with them.
Russian population also picked to go negative but didn’t stop them starting a war.
Yes, we know the Ukranian birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, and Zelensky still started a war. That doesn’t mean China or Russia will.
Yes, you are correct however in less than 30 years it will be a different story especially since the war has seen added flight of young, skilled people from Russia.
Additionally, China’s population is the fastest aging population in human history.
So, in 15 years time they will have to choose between supporting their elderly and neutering their economy or letting their elderly rot and slow the decline of their economy.
Sadly for the elderly, the damage done by the cultural revolution may well see the Chinese abandon any sense of obligation to their elderly.
@Jays
One more bullet point to your list
6: Energy supplies, China imports about 80% of it’s energy supply. About 80% of that from the gulf. The Chinese navy does not have the ability to secure that supply route which has a few choke points.
If the gulf supply is cut off Russia cannot divert supply from Europe to China or increase the current supply to anything close to the volume required due to lack of physical infrastructure. China’s industrialised base the nation’s manufacturing, agriculture even it’s ability to keep the lights on is completely vulnerable to an energy blockade.
So I agree the concern is out of proportion at least for any conventional military threat (soft power and cyber concerns are more legitimate).
NATO and the various US led alliances are far more dangerous to China than China is to any other nation except those on and within the first island chain (ie Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, Philippines etc). Even with a friendly port in the Pacific the Chinese Navy, while it has the most ships, is completely out matched by the US Navy in tonnage, range and capability and air support. Together with other naval powers the containment of China is overwhelming.
The whiplash from pivot in policy and rhetoric is pretty obvious while the CCP under Xi has had a clear direction since at least 2014. So I wonder why western policy has changed now accompanied by the usual media stampede.
I’m no fan of Xi’s CCP but I’m more concerned by the state of western political, economic and social dysfunction than I am about a threat from China, although that might not be the case if I lived in Taiwan.
Spot on!
So, boosting our military spending to 3% of GDP will stop China…nope!
John…I think I have asked you before…Did Ukraine invade Russia and is bombing Russian buildings, killing Russian citizens and destroying Russian infrastructure….Is this what is actually happening…Could you please give me an answer so I know what is actually happening….
“When the belly’s full all else is art.”
What are we? “New Zealand is the sixth-largest island country in the world, with a land size of 268,710 km2 (103,750 sq mi).” We’re an enormous market garden with only 5.3 million people as climate change threatens even the most polite of populations but more specifically the massive populations of the world.
Anyone can build a cell phone but try and build a potato.
But what do I know? Fuck all would be my honest answer. But this guy, however, is well worth reading.
George Monbiot. The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/banks-collapsed-in-2008-food-system-same-producers-regulators
I’ve written before; what we need is nuclear armed British aircraft carriers in every major port in AO/NZ. Now, or 我们完了.
In my opinion, the USA will give China South East Asia, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands if they leave continental USA alone.
Interesting Countryboy….But what about the uranium in Australia…I’ve read that Australia has the most known uranium resources…almost one third of the world total…I can’t see America letting China, or anyone else getting their hands on that…we could possibly piggyback on Australia’s good fortune….as if they have any say on the matter….
I’ve long been a supporter of three percent Gross Domestic Product military spending, and I’ve always thought that the introduction of estate taxes could allow for this. It would be appropriate for the wealthy to help pay for it, and if estate taxes are introduced at a nominal flat rate, then the wealthy wouldn’t really have anything to complain about and the only people that will be hurt by it are the over leveraged property speculators so, effectively, the introduction of this measure would discourage property speculation in this country, which is what we need at the moment.
so martyn you’ll be first in line to ‘take the kings shilling’ then?
I will be the first.
And I will be the second.
and I’ll be on the dockside waving you off
Only dockside waving you would be doing gagarin will be if you are deported back to the UK.
You might be interested in the following discussions held at No Minister by a guest poster…
The Replacement of the RNZN Anzac Frigates.
Air Combat capability 1
Air Combat capability 1
The pacifiists and America/Australia haters among you will be pleased to know that although the above is affordable (2% GDP) almost all commentators concluded that it will never happen. Still, it’s an interesting discussion.
Which is why we went for 3%! Muhahahahah
None of those ‘capabilities’ are useful. We need anti-ship missiles to sink Australian and American ships that near our EEZ.
You are literally nuttier than squirrel shit ‘John White’ if you think that (real) New Zealanders want to start a war with Aussie . . you may have missed this but Aussie are as close to family as two countries can get.
Looking forward to how crazy your next comment will be. Ardern should personally assassinate Biden?
yup- jb that’s why they cancelled anzac day out of respect..
At Armageddon you need an army. At night, in my cups, I wonder if I shouldn’t go to Ukraine like democrats went to the Spanish Civil War in the day.
This culture of comfort has killed us and has to end. Before it kills our children and grandchildren. That that is laughable says it all. Our death certificate.
Military spending?
1%, 2%, 3% more
Where’s it gonna come from,
The poor for sure.
Time to kick the candy man
Be sovereign
Save our skinny asses while we can