The State Broadcaster has remarkably woken from its holiday slumber to put out a Poll from their golden plush velvet star chamber before rolling back to sleep.
Has TVNZ Breakfast even returned to screens yet or are they still enjoying their taxpayer funded holiday? I imagine them all rehearsing their Tik Tok dancers in Scrooge McDuck’s vault under Radio NZ where the sound of native birds taught to sing in Te Reo (at enormous cost) is constantly piped in while Jenny-May, Matty and Jenny laugh with the freedom of knowing you’ll never get fired from a Government job.
Is it back on air?
Christ knows, anyway – here is the first Poll of 2022, there are of course Winners & Losers
WINNERS
Labour & Jacinda: After making some of the hardest policy decisions any peacetime Government in NZ history, after ruthless never ending vile attacks by fanatics and lunatics and a media narrative so negative it feels like Cameron Slater is running the editorial teams, Labour are still on 40%?
Sweet zombie Jesus!
The vast majority of Kiwis still back Jacinda’s approach and are still grateful.
The Caucus will be privately chuffed as they had been shown at their retreat UMR polling that had them at 38.
Christian Vote: The Christian vote in NZ never goes anywhere because it’s split between too many Christian parties that never get over 5%, it’s the reason Judith did that hokey staged prayer last election. In Luxon, fanatical Christians see a Hand Maid’s tale level anti abortionist and a count down to rapture. Christian Lex Luther is their man and that’s what is fueling his surge.
ACT: I think ACT were unfairly stung by Luxon, he hoovered up all the sub 5% Christian vote and the math shrunk ACTs gains. If you look at the urban vote, ACT have enormous dominance in the 18-59 male demo market and I just can’t see Christian Lex Luthor appealing to them.
The naked truth is Seymour is actually cool in comparison to National, when the media breathlessly reported that Clarke Gayford had given speaker phone advice on testing, National wagged its finger and Bishop intoned that deeply inappropriate where as Seymour cheered Clarke on for promoting RATs!
Likewise when Seymour handed Luxon his Christmas Card last month, it had Simon Bridges name crossed out on the front.
ACT are just cooler than National.
ACT will gain two huge culture war set pieces in the form of the Hate Speech legislation and the Royal Society kangaroo court for Woke heresy which ACT will be able to weaponize.
LOSERS
National: Luxon will have trouble bringing back the Labour female voters that supported Helen Clark that Key seduced but Jacinda won back in 2020!
This 200000 block of 45+ year old women see in Jacinda an empowerment of female leadership that won’t feel at all tempted by a rich evangelical CEO Handmaid’s Tale level anti-abortionist.
That’s not to say Luxon will fail, there is a deep polarization of NZ society but he’s unlikely to get National above 35% on Election Day.
Greens: Despite Labour failing on poverty, housing, meaningful climate change and inequality, the collection of middle class Woke virtue signals that are the Greens are about as electorally viable as a cup of cold sick being sold as vegan beer.
I’m forever embarrassed that I vote for them. They are my team and I just wish they would disband.
NZF: When Winston claimed Harry Tam had snuck a Covid infected sex worker throughout the North Island and that Labour knew about it , little would he suspect how it would become the weirdest political suicide note in NZ history.
Tova: Can anyone seriously believe that no one in Today FMs management would have checked Tova’s restraint of trade clause and got it so wrong? Of course we can! This is a company who program music for Teenagers who are too poor to pay for Spotify premium and for Boomers too frightened to know how to use Spotify premium, that they missed something as huge as their new stars start date is if no surprise at all. The best bit was when Tova tired to turn it into a ‘you go girl’ hashtag feminism play by going to the employment court to have Discovery ‘ungag’ her only to get fined $2000 for making an advert for her new job while still being paid by her old job. Tova would be all over this new Poll if she was starting next week. She’s not.
CONCLUSION
I’m 90% confident that Labour + Green will win in 2023, but the unique attributes of MMP may come into play in Auckland that sneaks a victory to ACT & National.
I think it’s entirely plausible that National wins more electorate seats than Party vote in 2023 because I think a lot of reactionary male vote in Auckland may well vote National as the electorate vote but will party vote ACT.
I can see National winning back Auckland electorate seats while losing party vote which will cause a huge overhang in our MMP election which will increase the size of the Parliament and make getting 51% far more difficult for Labour and the Greens.
MMP Overhang could be the deciding factor in a razor close 2023 election.
The biggest question is how the cultural shockwave of 80000 sick per day plus 400 dead by April impacts things.
Omicron could either rally people around Jacinda as we finally realize via direct experience that she was right all along or it could turn the nation against them as we collectively flail around to find someone to blame.
Brace for impact.
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If Brian Tamaki and other leading anti-vax/mandate covidiots get sick and hospitalised, I think Labour will pick up a few points from National.
Some observations:
1). Summer polls usually show the incumbent party getting a bonce – these ones haven’t which suggests 10% of the middle have moved back to the centre-right and are beginning to become hard baked for the next election.
2). Preferred PM – Blairite down to 35%. This is low and if net favorability was shown Uncle Fester would be ahead on this metric. The party now out scores it’s greatest asset.
3). Delta has been managed to almost an eradication and vaccination is effectively > 90%. The government got NO IMPROVEMENT from these 2 achievements.
4). The twin doom merchants of omnishambles and brother inflation (it still isn’t at the zenith) are about to hit this little country. Neither will be kind on the government.
5). Poll confirms there is a 3-4% gap between the 2 sides. This is a sparrow’s fart 15 months out from an election.
The right will be more happy from this poll than the left
Any middle class home owning voter can see Labour support them, or at least their property portfolio’s and they know Labour will never deviate from pure neo liberal dogma. The own goal credit crunch from crap legislation that is in fact working in the exact reverse of how it was intended plus inflation/interest rate rises are the wrong answer however and will harm confidence in Labour.
The increasing numbers of poor? Get the hell out of here. Who are you again?
However Labours mediocrity, law making a good example and general non achievement is corrosive. And the sparkle is fading fast on the leader of these below average performers.
The Nats are pulling back their vote from ACT. Anyone but Judith would have.
And how the party referring to itself as Green get 9% is beyond me.
ACT down 3 Nats up 4, means a 1% lift for the right-right; not a plunge in support for Labour/Green. This indicates that despite the problems that the Government has had to grapple with and the unpopular measures they have had to take, they have the support of the majority of the country.
What about the 11% undecided? If, they vote National…then it’s game on!
And if they don’t, is it a different game or is the game off?
It was during the summer break where we had good weather and minimal covid cases. Polls during this time usually show an improvement for the incumbents – this didn’t.
And this is Seymours answer to our covid response…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-new-zealand-has-become-a-hermit-kingdom-david-seymour-writes-in-daily-mail-column/4XF6BYSHKXSVRGF5KXK3BCGGME/
I guess he should know, he was at the helm of a one man hermit-kingdom party until National shat itself.
covid has been a great way to hide Labour’s ineptness, Other stats tell a different story about how NZ really is
No problem with that, just as the GFC and Christchurch earthquakes showed National/ ACT / Maori and United Futures ineptness.
Sorry, but if a Government funded organisation says the Government is doing well…I do not automatically believe it….
A Labour/Green coalition would be a scary mix especial if Greens kept their current leaders . I am retired now so do not have as much contacted with younger voters but in the group I do mix in some who have voted Labour would go National to keep Green from getting any power and Act is not a threat.
“The biggest question is how the cultural shockwave of 80000 sick per day plus 400 dead by April impacts things.”
This reminds me of the eco-warrior who told me the Auckland wharves would be underwater by 2010. No doubt there has been some sea level rise, and doubt people will catch covid. There may be deaths. Ones, even tens, of people. If the above prediction of doom turns out to be true (and it isn’t, because under that calculation of spread elections would be irelevent or impossible), people will flock to Labour and be totally screwed to death in a hundred thousand small but conclusive ways. If it’s wrong, it’s the usual screwing by National till close. The wealthy win, materially speaking, and the poor have to find a new way to live, as usual. We could all win right now by winding back the hysteria. Is hysteria counted as misinformation? It surely isn’t science or fact.
I find Luxon so repulsive just to look at that it’s bewildering – worse than Key, which is saying something.
It’s a good thing you’re perfect.
New Kraut. Thanks, I guess I’m used to it.
Agree 100% – it’s a feminine intuition thing. Bridges was more authentic. Luxon publicly referring to one of his female MP’s as “silly” is unacceptable, even if she is silly. He’s dragging women back.
Annie I think we’re allowed to ‘call a spade a spade’ whatever it’s gender.
Gagarin. “ I think we’re allowed to call a spade a spade whatever it’s gender.” Yes and no. Saying that she was silly, is the way that we talk privately ( hoping a J-R isn’t recording everything); in public we say that she made an error of judgment – if we even say anything. It’s the guys lack of class, he’s a bit back -blocks boy who thinks he’s hit the big time – that ride in the black Mercedes
was a wee bit of an overkill – even Boris rides a bike…
Gentle Annie. Luxon hiring a black Mercedes to carry him a few hundred yards down the road to Parliament is what I’d call silly – and with a separate black cab to carry his lady deputy – Noel Coward did it all ever so much better than this.
And Luxon’s saviour, the average people’s messiah, pope Tamaki, leaves prison in a Tesla! So that’s where the tithe goes?
Bert I haven’t a clue what a Tesla is. I assume it’s some sort of vehicle, but don’t really care, he’s a joke whatever.
$80,000 to $100,000 worth of vehicle.
Thanks bert. It’s a lot of money, considering. Boys and their toys used to be an undergrad sex joke; this, and Chris’s comical black Mercedes look more shrink territory.
I usually find I agree with you on most things but are looks important surely what a politican says is what should be judged.
My hope is that we can get away from personal attacks and if Labour see National as a posible contender they stop sleepwalking .
Looks are important Trevor if his target audience is lining up at the food bank, the politics of optics are just as important.
@ Snow White … I noticed recently Luxon has the same dead, unfeeling eyes as Key.
mary-a. Key irritated me for his glibness, his lies, his mangling the English language, his vulgarity, his arrogance, his ignorance, and one or two other things. But omg Luxon seems worse, aesthetically, creepy, and if the eyes are mirrors of the soul, your dead unfeeling observation could explain it.
Totally with you on this.
On a physical level, he is rather repulsive and a bit reptilian around the eyes. But the other thing I cant stand is the try hard but self conscious, man of the people schtick. Why it isnt totally obvious to National voters that he is only interested in personal fame and not the country’s welfare is anybody’s guess?
At least Shonkey was a man of the people in his own effortless way (Glib yes but from a place of innate confidence). Lex Luthor is the classic over achiever striving for ever greater heights to prove to himself that he is good enough. Do not expect NZ to come first that’s not what he is about.
I’m normally with you all on this but I completely disagree. He actually looks okay. The issue is when he opens his mouth, he sounds like Collins and Bridges before her, spin, spin, spin, woof, woof, woof. Seriously not a leader in waiting!
Bert. If you’re a cisgender male – and this is no criticism of you, I’m not a Green – you may react differently to Luxon from the way that a woman does, it’s a gut thing not restricted just to his appearance. If you’re saying that he uses the same old jargon and cliches, that might just be what he’s advised to do, or all that he’s capable of – no one has ever suggested that he’s another Winston Churchill, or even a Winston Peters.
Nicola – “ Do not expect NZ to come first that’s not what he’s about. “
Absolutely. If Luxon’s a Key protege there’s no way New Zealand will come first. That little creep even wanted to dump our flag and whinged about it when he ran off. Whatever Ardern’s failings, I don’t think that she is a bad person, ditto Davis and most of the others. The Greens are nutters, bar Eugenie Sage – who somebody else salutes today, and hopefully a few others are sound sort of people – but their gender fixations and racism are borderline mad, but I cannot regard a friend of Key as a friend of Kiwis, and whatever Luxon’s so-called religious affiliations I have more reservations about him than I care to elaborate about.
Many people here say things that I would disagree with, but most are good people who do care about New Zealand. We should be able to say that about all politicians, but we can’t. The pandemic has unfortunately distorted our reality, permanently, which is even more reason not to lose focus on what some of these power grubbers want. We owe that much to our kids and to their’s.
God, Jacinda must repulse you then.
Why?
So Jacinda doesent,
– lie? (Podium of truth)
– mangle her english? (Poverdy)
– is not vulgar? (Let’s have a wedding at a multi billionaires place)
– shows no arrogance? (I am the single source of truth)
– shows no ignorance? (What’s GDP again?)
No that’s just your right wing perception. We get it.
Plus 1000 Snow White.
It’s all identity politics here with SW and Mary. Of course they would rather vote for the kind face of JA. My faith in rational human thought just took another hit.
New View. Wrong, on every count, and this is not about mere faces.
Here’s part of Psalm 614 for you ( it’s an intriguing bit of rational reflection about levels – tho ‘ Herman Hesse probably does it better)
“ But the song it goes deeper and higher;
There are harvests that eye cannot see;
They ripen on mountains of duty
Are reaped by the brave and the free.”
Dang Snow White, talk about putting someone in their place!
Hanazis luuuurve Deluxon… they luuuuurve him while stepping over the dying homeless to get into the Gucci store. It’s not funny, because it’s true.
Labour are dog tucker! I don’t think anymore spending is on the cards now. An easy target for the opposition to hammer them.
They’re fuck’d if they do and fuck’d if they don’t. Own goal.
Bailing out now is their only option.
no winners here, I’m stuck on a ship of fools bro’s
“The sound of native birds singing in Te Reo (at enormous cost)…. Lol love it.
I am one of those over 45 year olds who want be voting Labour, despite Jacinda.
I just can’t bring myself to vote for a party that is so captured by bizarre gender ideology
I’m an older woman who’d vote Green if the current crop of MPs were not so captured by gender identity ideology. Can’t understand why so many women still vote Green and/or Labour when these parties have so un-democratically sold-out women. The GP especially is too influenced by their young student and uni-educated voters, who in turn, have been too influenced by the well-funded, PR & social media savvy, US genderists – a powerful top-down, authoritarian movement that has sold the dismantling of sex-based, science and biology-denying legislation as something cool.
That the current Green Party establishment has been so easily captured by this ideology shows a major fault with the party’s politics and principles, along with other Green parties in western-European countries. They don’t fully understand structural power dynamics. They have some great policies to counter income and wealth inequalities but totally MIA when it comes to, as Sue Bradford says, ‘realpolitik’.
I think that the NZGP had some great MPs who did understand structural power dynamics and the need for realpolitik to counter the powerful elites. Those MPs and GP members were from the Alliance, and still had strong left wing politics and practices. Now many of them no longer have so much influence on the party, the party is left with a lot of middle class, liberal do-gooders who spend too much time on social media.
Also agree. Eugenie Sage did a good job but is going having been treated like an also ran despite delivering well in her portfolio. Left the BS to the rest of them and got on with the job. Well thought of in DoC as well I hear.
yup that native birds one was well funny
Grumpy old “hate Jacinda” men will always vote Natzact but they are slowly dying out. The poll would have given the right (ie granny herald, ZB, media, bloggers, talkback, etc) a bit of confidence. So watch the govt funded zb and the herald go all out as the Natzact spokespeople promoting them to the next election. They have wasted the last 5 years promoting the Natzact and now see an opening. Ive voted for any party but National since holyoake’s time in the 1960’s so I’ll give my vote to labour, greens or Maori party.
So 1000 people were polled,500 by cell phone, and 500 online. Not quite a random sample because there are people who do not have either but I believe they fudge everything to take this into account. The poll site states that the maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. What this means is for labour’s stated poll result of 39%, if you carried out the poll 100 times with a different sample of 1000 people each time, then 95 times the result would be between 36% and 42%. It is statistically feasible that labour is on 44%. Don’t take the poll as gospel truth.
Not much has really changed just the NATS regained some of those that fled to Act cause they no longer had an appetite for Judeaths’ bullshit either. And if NZers are stupid enough to fall for Luxons’ false bullshit then they deserve everything they get which will be nothing.
This whole thing about Jacinda’s popularity falling seemed to bring a smug look of content on the face of the TV 1 reporter who presented the poll findings on the news last night and a sparkly look in her eyes when she mentioned Luxon. In the NZ Herald Business Section this morning there is an opinion piece from Hamish Rutherford on inflation. He begins by saying – “A good central banker is one who is willing to make unpopular decisions for our own good” https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/hamish-rutherford-will-reserve-bank-raise-interest-rates-even-if-house-prices-are-falling/ZDDNEVBARNMJSPLS63YMOCSSFM/
So, it seems that unpopular decisions from the Reserve Bank are for our own good but unpopular decisions from Jacinda and her Government in managing the COVID pandemic and other issues are being screamed about from the roof-tops by her critics who now seem to be in partnership with Brian Tamaki and his cult and regarded as destroying our nation.
Strange that the Herald commentators do not make the same comments about Jacinda that Hamish Rutherford made about the Reserve Bank.
GFC austerity 2 – same old same old
…starring the shining stars of banking and economics coming to cinema near you soon…don’t miss it.
supporting labour I find is a bit like supporting your local football team.
You support them because they’re your TEAM, and you stand on the same rainy terrace, eating your mystery meat pie whilst sipping bovril, trying to get enthusiastic about their lackluster performance, then traipsing home shivering in the drizzle..dreaming it might be better next week….life is hard in the 3rd division.
Hahaha brilliant! Go Luton Town!
POLLSTERS PROVIDE THE RESULTS THOSE WHO PAY THEM REQUIRE
…it’s that simple.
it’s not personal it’s just business.
The overseas vote will also be interesting in 2023
Will they still favour the Greens as highly as before, because you know being green is so hip? I say that the green vote will stay the same, many of these overseas green voters are still completely unaware that the green party have no environmental credentials, but like the sound of their name.
Will the MIQ backlash hurt Labour? Locking people out from returning home must have some impact, no matter how highly the international left wing media keep painting Jacinda. Just as the female domestic voter loves Jacinda because she saved grandma, the international voter may not be so charitable because Jacinda refused to allow them to say goodbye to dying grandma.
My prediction is that left wing overseas voter wave may not be so strong next year.
“no matter how highly the international left wing media keep painting Jacinda.”
So you prefer the international right wing medias version of Jacinda?
You are so predictable.
The new younger voters will vote for the greens and leave natzact to the grumpy old men.
There are two concerning features of this poll to my eye. The first involves Luxon. Do New Zealanders not see exactly what he is? He’s a big time God botherer that can be trusted about the same as a $2 Shop Rolex watch. He also represents a divisive political Party that promotes selfish greed at the expense of your fellow Kiwis. National believe the only hard workers in NZ are those that vote for them. Luxon is on record as being opposed to the increases in the minimum wage despite the wage still not yet being the equivalent of a living wage. This is the same man that gained forty two thousand dollars profit every week for a year off just one of his investment properties and wasn’t even aware of it. National and China have a very snug mutually beneficial relationship. No doubt the Chinese will be making thousands of donations to the National Party over the next 20 months. All under 15k of course. They will as always expect something in return which the National Party will happily gift them. NZ infrastructure was in desperate need of a huge injection of funds when National left office. Why? Rock Star Economy? The nurses will be nervous about National ever getting back on the top floor. No doubt we will see another huge exodus of them should that eventuate. If we view statements made by all the National Party leaders since Covid arrived here in early 2020, the price NZ paid would be in deceased persons rather than dollar bills. Business however would approve.
Bottom line is, we know many National Party supporters deserted the ship like rats while Chucky was at the helm so it makes sense they would return under Luxon.
The second concerning aspect of this poll to me was the statement made by Ardern yesterday. She claimed the result was due to “hard calls” she’d made over the last 6 months. If she thinks that is the only reason for the result and the trend that goes with it, she’s delusional.
Businesses don’t like Covid restrictions but there are a lot more Indians than there are Chiefs. Ardern herself stated the anti-vax movement were a small minority and I’m certain very few of them would have voted for Ardern anyway.
I feel the drop in Ardern’s support reflects the fact Ardern has done SFA except say fluffy words while the bulk of NZ is hurting. House prices are obscene. They have created unprecedented inequity while Ardern looked on like a deer standing on the road blinded by oncoming lights. The housing situation has shut out of home ownership a generation of young Kiwis and many others. I’m no longer interested in a word Ardern says about housing.
I’m still dirty on the cannabis referendum result. Many of us waited decades for that referendum only to have Ardern standby while our democracy was butchered by a well funded misinformation and fearmongering campaign. Generational change my arse.
Ardern makes noises about price gouging by fuel companies but what has been the end result of her action? Take a look at the pumps for your answer there. Exact same situation with diabolical supermarket prices. Kiwis still being ripped off as always while Ardern looks on with another concerned facial expression. Being “kind” is just fluff. Kiwis need and want much more.
Look at Ardern’s colleagues. They are about as inspiring as warm flat beer. Ardern stood out head and shoulders above them but she’s now in danger of sinking to their level. The one thing Todd Muller got right was to say Ardern is surrounded by empty chairs. These are the reasons I feel her popularity is slipping away.
Thankfully, there is some 20 -22 months before the next election.
Ardern needs to pull finger while she still can
Define “New Zealander”. Or do you mean people with voting rights in NZ elections… is that your definition?
that’s about the size of it TM
” This whole thing about Jacinda’s popularity falling seemed to bring a smug look of content on the face of the TV 1 reporter who presented the poll findings on the news last night and a sparkly look in her eyes when she mentioned Luxon ”
You have to remember that Jessica Much McKay is still mesmerized by her idol John Key and is only doing what she is expected to do by the TVNZ manager and board and that is to use their political bias to 1 attack a LINO government on anything and everything because LOL they actually believe they are left wing ! and 2 promote the National party and its new leader when their fortunes turn around and they will. They are like sharks waiting for the smell of blood and then going in for the relentless attack.
I remember the night Much McKay interviewed Adern and Davis before the 2017 election and McKay lambasted them for making a criticism against Bill English and his government by making this comment ” I don’t think that is fair on the National party or its members ”
I made a complaint but it was not upheld and then I realised how every facet of our democracy was skewed if favour of only one political right wing position including even our state broadcaster.
Those who think that our free speech is threatened only have to look closely at how neo liberalism and good old fashioned tory bias has manipulated what we see and hear because they can with no restraint.
The polls come up and down Labour up, National Down and then reverse. And we are stuck in the Doldrums getting nowhere.
It seems like a boat going up and down on the sea. Here is a good sea shanty for us all. It’s got a good beat, dance around me hearties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLR-ye-ZM4o
So did the poll include what policies, covid response National/ACT have? I thought not.
ER…Labour was the first party under MMP to win a majority, and they campaigned on ‘no policy’s’.
Campaigning on policy in New Zealand is pointless, and 2020 is proof that the typical NZ voter doesn’t give two hoots about policy.
More drawl.
“ER…Labour was the first party under MMP to win a majority, and they campaigned on ‘no policy’s’.”
https://www.labour.org.nz/policy
Ignorance is bliss.
BG. “ …NZ voter doesn’t give two hoots about policy. “ Could be. I believed her climate change being our nuclear moment, and her concern about child poverty. I now think that the latter was pr spin, and it may have been better not mentioning it rather than using the children of the poor to get votes. The abolition of the Children’s Commissioner is more than just a dark symbol of how our elected representatives feel about children.
Bubble the borders open correctly and you will get a fourth, you night sky lady.
This Caretaker Government has run its course. Stumbling from Crisis to Crisis and unable to address any of them adequately.
The best outcome for the next election is probably a compromise?
Labour & the Nat’s in a coalition. That would be another caretaker government but one that could probably address at least one of the Crises?
I agree with Trevor. It’s about what gets said that should trigger the public’s interest.
Listening to some of Luxton’s comments I am not convinced. I started to get nervous when he said something about his faith, or belief in God, was to remind him there was something bigger than himself (has he forgotten about Gerry Brownlee?). Confidence is great but that smelt more of arrogance.
More recently the comments about silly spending by the government, driving inflation, went pear shaped. He stated the big-ticket items like the wage subsidy etc. (i.e., spend of significance) were examples of good spending, whereas a comparatively piddly 60mil on cameras for fishing boats was unnecessary. As an individual you might think 60mil could be spent on other things but either way it’s a drop in the bucket. The material spend he agreed with so what is he saying?
Furthermore, he bangs on about grand government announcements, but nothing really happening. There might be some truth to that but if nothing happens the flip side is the money is not being spent (and therefore not driving current inflation).
Wheel. Luxon says cameras on fishing boats are unnecessary ? Did he say why ? Does he think we’ll just be able to import poisoned canned sardines and salmon as usual, when the big knighted boys have fished out the southern oceans and wrecked the seabeds ? Going to pull a miracle of the loaves and fishes is he ? He’s an environmental menace.
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