Here are my thoughts on Ukraine vs Russia vs America vs NATO
It is stupid to pretend that Russia wouldn’t see Western incursions of influence into the Ukraine as anything other than provocation. Russia has every right to demand spheres of influences and buffers to Western influence as much as the West demands it.
The recent attempt at regime change uprisings seeded by CIA Hybrid War tactics in Kazakhstan will confirm in Russian minds that regime change is America’s active position.
This makes the Ukrainian Saber rattling even more dangerous.
Putin sees a weak Biden and an opportunity to build a bigger buffer while keeping the Ukraine weak and embattled.
Putin has 125000 troops and could surge that with 75 000 more but the maximum weight of forces falls well short of the at least 400000 troops Russia would need to occupy the entire country.
My guess is that Russia will seek to annex parts of the Ukraine that support its separatist movement and assets that empower its Caspian Sea assets.
My guess is Russia will wait until after the Winter Olympics.
My guess is that if Russia takes this action you will see it shadowed by China who will also take the opportunity to symbolically push back against American interests leaving a weak Biden to do nothing.
As NZ, we should not get dragged into this madness.
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