So here were TDBs 2021 predictions, how well did they stack up?
After every major pandemic, there is social unrest…
“So when our Sickness, and our Poverty Had greater wants than we could well supply; Strict Orders did but more enrage our grief, And hinder in accomplishing relief.”
That’s how the British poet George Wither explained a spreading rebellion against social-distancing rules. Seeing quarantines and lockdowns as unfair and tyrannical punishments, people were taking to the streets. The year was 1625, the place was London, the disease was plague.
…The peasant revolt in the 1300s, the civil unrest in the 1600s and the civil disobedience in the 1900s. The strict measures required to snuff out pandemics always makes the lives of the poorest unliveable, we haven’t seen the economic whiplash of Covid yet, especially amongst small business owners and those who were already vulnerable.
The desperate and newly desperate will swell globally and cause enormous cultural friction.
These waves of social disruption will reverberate around a rapidly warming planet.
OUTCOME: The madness of the AntiVaxxers and their ill defined hatred bears out this prediction in stark detail. 10/10
Trump & Georgia – All eyes will still be on Trump all January as the final days in the Bunker start to play out for him. Is Trump a craven coward who is pulling one last scam to shake down his followers for hundreds of millions or is he really a full blown sociopath who will launch a military strike against China or Iran? If the Dems can win Georgia they finally take control of the Senate and they will have actual power, the Corporations will not like that.
OUTCOME: The American military were so worried Trump would launch a last minute attack on China that they contacted them directly to assure them it wouldn’t happen. Trump’s attempted coup on the 6th of January was in some ways worse than a last minute attack on another country. 7/10
China – Their Wolf Diplomacy to whip up nationalistic fervour is masking a fear of internal revolt. Expect China to violently take Hong Kong, sabre rattle over Taiwan and threaten anyone in the West who says otherwise to send a domestic and international message of brutal strength.
OUTCOME: With the deplorable crack down on Hong Kong happening right now, and the sabre rattling over Taiwan this prediction was on the money. 10/10
Covid – It will continue to disrupt enormously. The issues of rolling out this vaccine to everyone will be a huge challenge that will need to become an annual ritual requiring 75% to gain herd immunity. The logistics of that are huge and we will be lucky to reach 75% globally by the end of 2022, so the economic damage won’t really start healing for another 2 years.
OUTCOME: Mostly true. 7/10
Putinless Russia? Recent rumours of his demise were apparently over stated but a Putinless Russia would create an enormous power vacuum at a time of high instability.
OUTCOME: 100% wrong! 0/10
Climate Crisis & Social Unrest – The economic stresses of Covid alongside more climate extremes will see a wave of famines in 2021.
There will be pressures caused by mass migration into Western countries who will already be grappling with intense social economic frictions, expect one of Biden’s first challenges to be a wave of climate refugees crossing the Southern Border.
The venal excesses of Wall Street Billionaires and their never ending wealth gains will cause enormous social distortions and lead to economic radicalisation.
Social Media disinformation will continue to polarise debate and create alternate realities.
OUTCOME: On the money, the only thing I got wrong was the Billionaires in spaceships! 9/10
Unemployment, poverty, homelessness and inequality to rise – We are expecting 70 000 more people on welfare, joblessness to spike and with those pressures, homelessness will rise as inequality deepens. 22 000 are on social housing waiting lists, 1 in 5 children are in poverty and property speculators are driving generations out of home ownership.
OUTCOME: Poverty, homelessness and inequality rose but unemployment plunged. 8/10
Crime Wave – The 501s now have their supply chains for South American Cartel meth established alongside a stand over regime on the domestic gangs. Expect more brain haemorrhages as older meth users smoke purer and cheaper meth and an explosion of violent crime aimed against Dairies and Bottle Stores as desperate users try to rob for cash. Guns are pouring into the country because of the meth trade. This alongside the economic fall out of the pandemic will see a crime wave across the country which will give National their first chance to play the law and order card. There is also growing extremism from prisoners who have served long sentences without any rehabilitation.
OUTCOME: All correct, even the ISIS terrorist radicalized in prison! 10/10
Ihumātao whiplash – The deal at Ihumātao is going to spark a serious of similar occupations around the country as other Māori rise up against unjust previous agreements.
OUTCOME: There were a couple of these in places but nowhere near enough to get a 5 out of 10. 3/10
Free Speech implosion – The Hate Speech legislation has the potential of igniting a debate the Left aren’t ready to argue convincingly. The backlash by the woke in social media feeds will have people fearing less for minorities exposed to hate speech and fear more being accused of hate speech.
OUTCOME: This built but will get far worse next year. 9/10
Radicalisation & Polarisation – With all the economic stresses and ease of disinformation, expect radicalisation and polarisation to build, not dissipate.
OUTCOME: Maori sovereignty flags, swastikas and MAGA flags combined? 10/10
Climate Crisis – We will face droughts, cyclones, forest fires and extreme rainfall events. The damages will mount alarmingly. Labour and the Greens will push for recommendations early in the year for emission cut backs and the Agricultural Lobby will faint at any mention of methane inclusion. Water reforms will keep David Parker too busy to do anything else.
OUTCOME: Yes. 10/10
Labour & Jacinda – Jacinda will increasingly be called on by global partners to front and lead more geopolitical fronts. Labour’s Caucus will baulk at the lack of actual transformative change and start to agitate for far more than Grant wants to pay for.
OUTCOME: Not really. 0/10
National – Will continue to wander for 40 days and 40 nights in the desert. Judith will use the crime wave to promise public floggings, but National are too deeply dysfunctional to offer a credible alternative.
OUTCOME: Pretty much. 8/10
Greens – Will increasingly look like they are propping up mediocrity and tepid nothingness. Won’t be able to help themselves over the Hate Speech legislation. Members will get increasingly frustrated by the lack of anything meaningful.
OUTCOME: Kinda. The members were far more prepared to prop up mediocrity than I had thought. 5/10
ACT – Will manipulate the Free Speech debate and continue to cannibalise National vote. Will crack 10%.
OUTCOME: Yes! 10/10
Māori Party – Have so many targets to shoot at, will continue to hold the Government’s feet to the fire.
OUTCOME: No, they went a bit nutty this year with their claims of genocide and demands to create a SIS Stasi! 5/10
So out of 170, TDB got 121. That’s a 71% hit rate compared with Stuffs 57%.
TDBs 2022 predictions are out on the first week of January.
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