New Poll – Labour & ACT soar

By
Martyn Bradbury
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121
3837

Despite all the media attack, Labour soars in the latest internal polling…

LABOUR – 46%
NATIONAL – 22%
ACT – 16%
GREENS – 7%
NZF – 3.8%
Maori Party – 1.9%

This runs counter to the narrative that there has been a serious swing away from Labour over it’s handling of Delta.

The majority of people support the Government and trust them to handle this. Yes it’s angering but people blame the virus, not Jacinda.

The big story is ACT continuing to cannibalise National vote and the continued death spiral of the National Party.

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I predict ACT will overtake National during the foolish Hate Speech debate next year.

This polarization of the extreme right gaining such political dominance isn’t registering yet. The idea of a Seymour-Collins Government will terrify the middle into sticking with Labour in 2023 and helping win Jacinda a 3rd term, but the polarization of debate between the yawning chasm of ACT and Labour/Green will cause enormous friction for 2026.

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121 COMMENTS

  1. Stating the bleeding obvious but Judith Collins is the main reason for Nationals demise and ACT’s unfounded popularity.

    But for the party that so enthusiasticallypushed for the Trans Tasman bubble, I think purely out of spite and the risk it created for self gain and the prime reason for the damage it caused Auckland and the harm it caused for the rest of New Zealand, this is just reward for it and it’s like minded supporters.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer collection of freaks.

    • Fingered the problem effectively XRay. The public knows that JC and the gNats didn’t give a flying fuck about mass death and disability from an outbreak of Covid. Even the Wall St vultures at the Economist magazine admit that our GDP growth was directly related to a successful handling of the pandemic. But the power obsessed ghouls of Gnashnul are too addicted to death cult capitalism to ever change their ways. They richly deserve to be thrown into the dustbin of history.

    • Oh I didn’t realize National was in government? I thought Labour had a majority, how silly of me! Yes, shame on National for opening up the bubble with Australia…

      • Push, campaign, lobby, call it what you like, for stupid things for probably dubious reasons.

        It just sums National up perfectly and why they deserve to languish nowhere! .

          • No they didn’t – yes it was arseholes like Mike Hosking who hounded Jacinda to open a travel bubble but at the end of the day she’s the one who made the decision.

  2. This poll has surprised me I would have thought we would start to see the swing. Normally you could cast this off is UMR trolling although like the Key years, there is somewhat stick no matter how badly issues are handled.

    At this rate Mike Morrah could discover Jacinda eating babies and she would still be in the low 40s.

    In 2024 there will be lots single, white females as those with a penis flee to the West Isle…….

  3. In you’re using the “Extreme Right” label for ACT would you use the label “Extreme Left” to to bucket the Greens? Genuine question ?

    • Agree Ross but as a National voter I was horrified by what Browne said about the prisoners getting McDonalds .He shows no insight into dealing with those on the out.National need to be seen as relevant to all not just a few

  6. There is a deeper issue coming here with the “3 waters” legislation which will put a real test on the Labour electorate MP’s

    Do they run the party line and continue to try to sell and indeed push the policy? Or do they actually do their job and represent the views of their electorate to the Government?
    Now my guess is they will be whipped into line to push it through. The electorate will judge them harshly for this and they will removed at the next election particularly those first term MP’s who took their seat from National. They are gone!

    So to the point here.

    On these polls Labour could loose 15 electorate MP’s to National.(because of 3 waters)
    But still have 52 MP’s mainly from the list
    National could gain 15 and end up with 42 odd MP’s all from Constituencies
    ACT 20 seats all but 1 a list seat
    The Greens with 8 the Maoris with 2
    A 124 member Parliament

    So don’ t jump in glee at this point that Jacinda will get a third term. 3 waters will “sink” her electorate MP’s.as sure as day follows night

    • Good maths Clifford J

      Your sagacity reminds me of a maths team I had when I formed the first ever party under MMP AND which entered the first ever post 1930ies coalition – with National when believe it or not (but tis true) RoC held the power to call a snap election – which also provided me the power to demand ton be retained in the Executive -until the United Party emerged and Bolger and I could revert to be adversaries – as we were the 3 terms I was an MP.

      Its all here – D Liz seemed to have missed this in here synopsis of MMP – AND I never penned a word of the wiki synopsis.

  8. I suspect ACT is probably to the left of the US Democrat party. The “extreme right” is probably not deserved, unless you mean it only by New Zealand standards.

  9. Great news. Jacinda can win a third term and continue to disappoint and make life worse for our most vulnerable people, awesome!

  10. I think that National have quite a few problems ahead.

    They need to come up with a reasonably charismatic new leader (and I personally dont think Luxon is that person). Perhaps Bridges and Reti could pull it off but that is all I can think of only knowing about a dozen or less of who are on National’s Team.

    So No 1, Leadership change,

    No 2, New Policies.

    Some good old traditional mainstream law and order or similar (anti identity politics? sensible 3 waters alternative? education instead of dole??) Something suitably right wing to appeal to their base without appearing punitive. However simultaneously, they must pivot left and deliver major amounts of new low income houses and preferably improved healthcare. They wont get their base back without some of the things that appeal to their faithful but to woo the centre voters they have to be seen to be solving a really big problem for centre NZ. One that Jacinda simply hasnt. No demurring, no excuses, plans in place, ready to go in Week 1.

    They need strong common sense, well articulated policies that people intrinsically hear and think, yeah, that would work.

    This is the opportunity for National and the only way to win. Be a right wing party with some left leaning policies, pushing into the limelight people who can or are known to, deliver. And they need to do it soon, not four months before the election. Do this and their numbers will go up and they can do a coalition with Act (Keep the solidly Right wingers happy) and possibly get the numbers to get across the line.

    I also dont think Jacinda is a shoo in at the next election.

    Many more people than usual turned up at the last election. Those that usually dont bother to vote may be ravaged by Covid by the time 2023 comes around. Either through devastation or the need to have someone to blame, Jacinda could lose some of her base. I believe she has already lost or severely undermined up to 20% of her older labour voters if some of the polls we have seen are true. Add an unenviable underclass death rate and a whole lot of people hanging on by a thread (as business disruptions and lockdowns/ restrictions will still rear their heads) and she becomes the face of NZ’s pain and will wear it at some point.

    If she rushes out early next year to open the borders (which she will) everything will get a lot worse when the virus starts travelling through a naive population. Our hospitals wont cope, neither will our ‘death’ industries, we simply dont have the capacity no matter what stories Andrew Little tells. And people will see it as ‘her’ fault.

  11. What sort of hateful, vindictive, sociopath could vote for a party that has increased inequality, increased homelessness, increased child poverty, increased gang crime, but then also increased the riches wealth at record speed? If you vote National or (new) Labour you should be ashamed of yourself. If you are a true kiwi your next vote should be for a real Labour party in a different country. Leave this land of greed and let the rich eat one another.

  12. Another reason National is languishing in the polls is because its ground continues to be stolen by the so-called left, that is, Labour. So I repeat, national should reinvent itself as the new left. Just as labour was hijacked buy a right-wing rat pack in the form of Rodger Douglas & Co, national need to have a coup because it doesn’t look as though Labour is going to return to its roots anytime soon and National is in dire straits. All for the greater good, of course.

  14. I see the taxpayers union poll taken essentially a week after Labours one, has Labour down, ACT and Nats slightly up.

  15. I would calm the farm on a third term.
    This second Covid bump is alot smaller than the first one and it only took a year for Labour to lose 10% of their previous vote. Labour does so extremely well when they focus on jobs and providing people with security I just can’t understand how they continue to sabotage themselves with American Wokery.
    I also agree with you that ACT will become the right wing values party, the problem I see is will they be considered a Major party?. Seymour isn’t unpopular, he is polling very well for an opposition leader of a Minor party and if he can get more screen time then he could really start surging like we have seen happen with smaller parties in Europe. I know our media thinks “we’re all living in America” but we aren’t.

  16. bert-‘I have no doubt you and I will have the last laugh as the tail wags the head.’
    I think its more the arse twerks the National head.

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