The election itself
Labour – 49.1% – will gain 2MPs from specials
Every single major academic research of psychology tells us that after a natural disaster or a crisis, it doesn’t matter if you are Left or Right, there is a reset switch that goes on in our brains as a species to be far more altruistic.
This makes evolutionary sense, our species has always had to reset after a natural disaster, and that deeply hard wired need to help one another even if you yourself have suffered has played into changing the psychology of the entire electorate.
Punters and politicians didn’t appreciate the uniqueness of the universal shared experience we had with the lockdown, nor understand the solidarity it inspired because our 35 year neoliberal experiment culturally celebrates Individualism Uber Allas, and as such, no one recognised the bonds that solidarity created.
What made Jacinda such an extraordinary leader was her emotional intelligence understood that solidarity before anyone else did. When people were at their most frightened and most altruistic, she communicated strength, courage and empathy in a way that would make Churchill proud.
If you ask the average Kiwi who is voting Labour this year to name just one Labour Party policy, I would put money down on the vast majority of them answering with, ‘Jacinda saved NZ?’
When your policy platform is seen by the vast majority of people as ‘saving our lives’, you have built an emotional 20 lane multi level motorway suspension bridge towards a mandate that demands use.
The psychology of the NZ electorate has fundamentally shifted. All the female voters Labour lost to Key have all come home to Labour for Jacinda. The strength of this solidarity afterglow must be nurtured if it is to bloom into anything meaningful.
By artificially inflating the needs of the new National voters interests over Jacinda’s own tribe, she is telling the landlords of NZ she won’t do anything to harm them yet the mentally ill, the homeless, the working poor, the beneficiaries, the renters the prisoners, the poor and the disabled – their interests come AFTER the National Party landlords???
Labour are notoriously timid when it comes to challenging the neoliberal hegemonic structure because they were the Party that unleashed this far right experiment upon us and the scars of that debate are still raw in Labour’s psyche, luckily for us the economic depression alongside the meltdown of the climate crisis will be so deep and damaging that even Cautious Jacinda and Extra Cautious Grant have no choice but to reform and rebuild.
History is watching and no handbrake will stop that.
National – 26.8% – will go lower once specials counted
What’s fascinating about the National Party Autopsy is that NO ONE has pointed out that this result marks the death spiral of the Party and that the Boomer dominance over political influence is now finally ended!
The National Party campaign was a train-wreck dumpster fire that collided with a school bus that exploded next to a pet store.
Simon Bridges fell foul of the sudden solidarity created by Covid and National were caught flat footed by a crisis that only became worse by more free market deregulation.
No one wanted to hear about the State being cut back when everyone was running to the State for safety.
It highlighted the utter vacancy of National Party ideology, all they kept coming up with was privatisation!
Their ever changing position on the border was farcical and that’s after you had to accept a former President of the Party leaking privileged information to a National MP who then leaked it to the media, another MP sending sext texts, another Party Offical smearing their own candidate, and the Todd Muller coup ignited by cowardice.
They will wander in the wilderness trying to work out who and what they actually stand for.
Green – 7.6% – might gain 1 MP after specials
If the Green Leadership mistake their better than expected result as evidence that their middle class identity politics virtue signalling alongside incremental environmental gains was a success, then they are doomed.
The Greens better than expected result was driven by Labour Left voters seeing the pittance Jacinda was offering and backing the Greens to get some actual change, those Labour Left voters looked past the Green cringe of the last 3 years to do that, they weren’t attracted to incrementalism or woke nonsense.
The radical new chapter of MPs elected will want to throw the crumbs Labour are offering to buy Green acquiescence for the next 3 years back in Labour’s face and righteously storm out to join the Opposition and mercilessly savage Labours unprotected left flank until 2023 when the demographic changes favour the Greens plus the Māori Party more than they do Labour.
The Green Leadership however will justify any crumbs as great successes and better to be in the tent blah blah blah. Normally this kind of watered down Green lime reasoning would be fine and dandy, but the fucking planet is melting and this pandemic is but the first wave of disruption from a biosphere in savage decline.
There can be no more waiting.
You can’t replace Winston as the handbrake from the last term with the entire landlord class of NZ and call that progress.
So there is an immediate friction inside the Greens between the Leadership and the new class of activist MPs alongside the sudden power of Chloe by winning an electorate.
I don’t think we won’t get a transformative Green option until Chloe is the leader.
New Zealander’s voted Green for them to be radical. So be radical!
ACT – 8% – will go lower after specials
The hollowness of National’s ideology created an enormous friction on the Right and once the woke gave Seymour the freedom of speech war and ACT hit 2MPs, they became the fault line for this backlash against National.
ACT became the Values Party of the Right the way the Greens are the Values Party of the Left.
The collapse of National is the end of a political dynasty and shows we as a country have finally hit the upper limit of boomer influence and farming political power. From here on in, National will decline as a political force while ACT radicalises more of the right and grows.
We are seeing the seeds sown of a far more polarised political future in NZ.
NZ First – 2.7% – will go backwards after specials
Māori Party – 1 seat – might gain 1 extra MP
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