BREAKING: Last UMR internal poll – Labour 50% National 29%


The last UMR corporate poll before the election has just been leaked today

Labour: 50%

National: 29%

ACT: 7%

Greens: 6%

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NZ First: 2.7%

If the Māori Party win electorate seats, it could create an overhang.

It’s looking like a crushing defeat for National and the Right and the end of the road for Winston.

I will be covering the election live on MagicTalk from 7pm on Saturday with Sean Plunket , Paula Bennett and guest appearances from Damien Grant and a host of others.

We will try and call the election before Radio NZ.

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  1. mate -adding further National peaked last week and are now in the decline phase
    We have them at 27-28% ballpark as of today but wait for this weeks Reid Research to confirm !
    To spell it out had the election been held on Saturday Oct 3rd -National would have pretty much peaked then in the early 30’s

  2. Well, as the old Jewish Rabbi’s used to say,…’evil devours evil’ and National had it coming. Another saying was’ revenge is a dish best served cold’. And that’s what you get for having an attitude of ‘born to rule’ and shitting all over your fellow countrymen and women.

    A colossal boot up the arse given enough time as your evil little dodgy ways are exposed for all to see.

    kill bill (revenge)

  3. This may well explain why Judith is displaying some rather concerning behaviour in the last day or so, more than her usual unpleasantness.

  4. This may well explain why Judith is displaying some rather concerning behaviour in the last day or so, more than her usual unpleasantness.

    NZ First slowly rising and they do underpoll. Dark horse?

  5. I see Collins has desperately come out today repeatedly calling Ardern a LIAR. Chucky knows she will only be the Latrine Rodent Party leader for a few more days so has scraped the bottom of the barrel yet again. TVNZ has obliged her by leading their 6pm news bulletin with that snot covered dogshit. Chucky will be delighted. A handful of people out there may hesitate voting for Ardern now because they feel she could be a liar. No consequence whatsoever for the despicable Collins so we know what we are in for over the last days of campaigning. Collins will also vomit out even more bitter bile and excrement in Thursday nights final leaders debate. How low will Collins go? The sewer will be her ceiling is how low. Tune in for Chucky’s swansong that no doubt media commentators will farcically say she won regardless.

    Isn’t it ironic that easily the most reprehensible and untrustworthy candidate to ever apply to become a NZ PM would try and paint herself as Mother Teresa while attacking the integrity of the most popular PM we’ve ever had?

    • Yes Jacindafan – so well put. When Collins called Jacinda a liar she also made the comment to her faithful, National brain-washed, self-entitled sneering followers that she hoped Jacinda would sue her. Of course, by saying this, if Jacinda does not sue her, which she won’t – I mean really why would you waste your time suing Collins – Collins will then bang on and say that Jacinda was too scared to sue her because she knows Collins is right.

      But that is all beside the point because it was a typical snide and mocking comment from Collins which is very much part of what she is all about. Also, it was pretty rich coming someone who has been donkey-deep in dirty politics for so many years. It makes you laugh to think that her faux outrage only serves to highlight her own filthy practices in politics. Thank goodness she does not appeal to the younger generation – well some of them follow her with adoration in their eyes. I guess there are rotten apples in every generation.

    • This election should have some surprises in store. My guesses:

      – ACT and Maori parties get into parliament, but the real shocker is TOP who pass 5%
      – NZF and Greens gone
      – Labour do worse than predicted

      Dope passes, euthanasia might need a recount.

  6. These numbers are inching closer to Jacindafan’s prediction of Labour at 52% and National at 27% in his comments on the last polling blog (and which I agreed with). Just saying, LOL. Well played Jacindafan, well played indeed.

  7. Today Collins targeted the obese but sadly there was no National policy revealed that would see funding to Eating Disorder Services drastically expanded.

  8. Jacindafan good chance PM will cancel Thursdays nights debate–its pointless -all Judith will do is yell “Liar” all night! Id put money its not going to happen because of Judiths behaviour this week 🙂

  9. ” I will be covering the election live on MagicTalk from 7pm on Saturday with Sean Plunket , Paula Bennett and guest appearances from Damien Grant ”

    Cant you find anybody remotely from the left Bomber ?

  10. I hope National sink without trace it is nothing short of what those scumbags deserve after their behaviour over the last 15 years !!!

  11. ” As prime minister, Ardern pledged to redress long-standing social issues, making waves by describing capitalism as a “blatant failure” from the perspective of poor New Zealanders. “What is the point of economic growth when we have some of the worst homelessness in the developed world?” she asked her interviewer ”

    • LOL. Rinse and repeat. Didn’t the Blairite say that 3 years ago? What’s changed? No 9 years of neglect nor handbrake this time……

  12. Who knows maybe the tea leaves will be right? That said its rare for people to vote out a govt after one term. Even one as useless as this.

  13. Bomber, does your leaked UMR poll give sample size and date range? On my poll of polls, the centre-left block is almost 55%, compared to the centre-right’s 39%.

  14. UMR need to add a ‘bias’ weighting into their calculations as theyre a labour polling co. Like Curia but curia have a reliable track record in post analysis after elections over the years whereas UMR are a pollster for hire. You get what you pay for.

    So that means labour will be on or about 47%ish, Maori Party 3% & possibly 2-3 electorate seats, Nats about 36%, NZF 6.7%ish, gweens wont make the cut with anything less than 5.2%, Act 2%+1 seat … basically Labour will need the Maori Party and or NZF come post election negotiations.

    But, who knows? The world could end because of climate change and more public tantrums from the mental ‘Mels’?

    • If they were a bad polling company the labour party would ditch them.

      UMR leaked polling is what started the beginning of the end of Simon Bridges.

      The fact is and no matter how much people yell fake news, no poll has had had labour not in or very near sole majority territory since March. National is certainly plummeting now too, they are beyond desperate I think if the election was another fortnight away national could be flirting with 20%.

      I have $50 on a majority labour govt when all the specials are counted, I wanna win it!

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