Jacinda’s incredible leadership – the politics of a 4, 5 & 6 week lockdown

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Today’s incredible results of only 29 cases is testament to the bold tenacity of Jacinda to go early and go hard on this virus.

There are certainly areas where we can be critical in terms of when border restrictions were put in place and the use of self isolation, but the numbers speak for themselves and we have Jacinda’s leadership to thank for that.

I’ve been a proponent of a 6 week lock down based on the math

Incubation time of the virus is 14 days, but there are cases where it has been 19 days and 27 days, so we went into lockdown on Wednesday 25th meaning the majority of infections will appear by April 8th in the second week of the 4 week lockdown, but we need to KNOW the damned virus has been completely eradicated, so that takes us out to April 21st for the last possible incubation date and we would need at least 2 weeks of no new infections to know the sacrifice had been worth it.

…but the remarkable numbers we are seeing today could rejig that math and we might be free of this plague by the end of the 4th week.

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While the decision to lift the lockdown must be directed by public health concerns and the science, there are political ramifications as well.

If the numbers continue to decline, here are the possible political considerations.

Week 4:

If the rate has slumped to nothing, the Government can claim success and regain the trust of the electorate. It will be seen as a huge public health victory but will need to be tightly managed with closed borders, mass testing, mass tracing and strict quarantine measures until a vaccine is available.

Possible danger is that if the virus flairs up again, Government will be blamed for coming out too soon.

Week 5:

To be on the safe side, the Government extends lock down to gain extra time to put into place the larger infrastructure needed for closed borders, mass testing, mass tracing and strict quarantine measures. Faces criticism from Business groups as the pressures of the economic consequences of this start becoming apparent.

Week 6:

Stamps the disease out completely but faces enormous criticism from the Right on the economic damage caused. Could derail election and lose sight of the public health protections.

IF the numbers keep declining 5 weeks would be the smart money, but whether it’s 4, 5 or 6 weeks of lockdown, the economy we go back to will be truncated and forever in a sense of immediate retraction if the virus flairs up anywhere.

We won’t get anywhere near normal until a vaccine is ready, and that is 12-18months away.

81 COMMENTS

    • Whose orders? It seems the decisions are made on the basis of scientific advice, international knowledge and experience and the results of statistical information. No doubt more, nothing less.

          • This is society facing a threat to all it’s members that must be addressed by all it’s members in a co-ordinated effort. Society has devised a mechanism that willingly empowers some individuals to design and articulate an appropriate strategy to deal with it. It hasn’t worked perfectly , nothing that involves so many individuals possibly can. But it’s working bloody well here in New Zealand; far better than in most countries. And to a large extent because everyone can appreciate the need to co operate.
            This is an example of democracy working as it should . Not of a theft of freedom.

            D J S

          • Self employed Helena. No income till it all starts up again but not under any duress . How about you?
            There’s lots of reasons I would and have questioned the gov’t’s actions, but the call was theirs
            to make and fair. It isn’t cut and dried and sooner or later the cure will become worse than the ailment both in revenue and in health. Also as Iv’e said elsewhere we may end up being the only population without immunity. But the action is legitimate on what is known so far.
            D J S

    • Jacinda hasn’t met any man that could defeat her. She plays the weak hand better than anyone you could conjure up. Who on earth do you think is telling Jacinda’s how to play her hand while she’s running the country? And please don’t mention 5G

    • Yes she goes into a wardrobe every evening and is transported to a far away planet where light beams full of instructions are inserted in her brain and she is then returned to earth and back into the wardrobe. Then every day we are subjected to those light beams as they are beamed out to us through visual mediums of outer planetary conspiratorial inter connectivity.

      Some mothers do have em………..

    • I am no lover of Jacinda or Labour but I do not see any signs of her being lead by anyone except her own plan of action. As usual I find your comment strange

  1. So have we reduced poverty, homelessness and inequality? Nope. Have we delivered any of our major projects?, kiwibuild, light rail etc? Nope. Oh saint Jacinda is great at fronting the cameras and saying nice words. But let’s face it, without a March 15 or this pandemic she would as the right love to say “one term Ardern”. We all deserve better and should never allow one good performance to cover up two years of frankly bullshit, for those who are suffering the most.

    • You horrible bitter and twisted creep.

      I recall the first three years of the Key government seeing these economic miracle workers cutting tax to the well off despite the GFC, breaking a major promise not to raise GST by raising GST to put the boot in to the less well off even more and embarking on a government department austerity diet like never seen before carrying on for most of the existence of that government. Try and overcome that in 3 years!

      All of which led us to a muti year recession that saw our credit rating downgraded, twice was it? In short they achieved stuff all of positive note by year 3.

      And despite that National managed to make a reasonable early response to the Christchurch earthquakes and rode on the back of that to electoral victory. That and dirty politics.

      Compare that to a totally unscripted never ever seen action and hard to calculate risk Jacinda Ardern and her government have taken that quite simply has saved God knows how many lives in the process. None of it for self gain or worse, tax cutting vote buying self enrichment. And they have done it off the back off a slowly recovering public service.

      Save your mindless bile for Newstalk ZB or Kiwiblog! They are as miserable as you.

    • Geez MickeyBoyle, you really don’t like Jacinda, do you. I wonder why? Coz she’s woman? You can’t hack that MB? Coz she’s not John Key? (thank god for that!) Coz Simon would do 200% better than her? (Yeah, nah!)
      Coz she tells it like it is, whether good or bad news? Coz you just cannot abide someone who is a decent human being?
      Perhaps you’d like a Trump clone in charge here?
      Geez, MB, you don’t know how lucky you are!

  2. So in 9 years of National we increased poverty, created inequality and homelessness and created a housing crisis. But St John stood before the cameras,NZ and America and minced the catwalk), the magz, placed his son cleverly in the media(no not Hosking)
    But let’s face it without the GFC ( and Labours fiscal management) and the Christchurch earthquakes Key would have been a one term wonder.
    Did you think for one minute that this could all be fixed in one term? Those suffering the most were at Nationals hands!

    • the Christchurch earthquakes

      Jacinda’s government is still, now when they can least afford the time to deal with it, copping comet-sized pieces of debris smashing into them from that previous government – Eg the EQC report.

      Excerpt:
      Mentions of dodgy damage assessments, botched repairs, bad communication and an adversarial approach to disputes dominate the report from the 16-month public inquiry into the Earthquake Commission (EQC) chaired by former Governor-General Dame Silvia Cartwright.

      The quake-response, it found, has resulted in Cantabrians developing a “deep mistrust” of government and a suspicion of motives by those in authority that will “take many years to overcome“. [My emphasis]

      That is the legacy of the previous govt, as it smashes into the present one.
      Article link here
      EQC Report here

      • Absolutely. Now as head of the EQC debacle will Brownlee offer up his resignation?
        He was clueless and a reminder for those abusing our P.M. for her handling of this pandemic, consider how open she has been, how extremely effective at minimising lives with her decisive action.

      • Governments come and go . The problem is government departmemts stay on their own path. Has WINZ or Immegration improved under Labour ? Not according to those that deal with them.
        When a person leaves school and talks to the career person about what they want to become I imaging those who were bullies or lazy would say a well paid government job.

        • You are WRONG, Trevor. Under the Key govt, with Bennett at the head, WINZ changed radically, in a very nasty way. In the two rural towns near where I live they began to resemble police state institutions.

          Armed guards appeared, both inside and outside the buildings. Intimidation and humiliation of clients was rife, for the simplest of things (a small child crying inside; the burly gun wielding guard appearing immediately behind a frail senior who had raised their voice slightly in distress).

          Benefits were stopped for no reason. One “reason” given to someone was that they had not asked for an emergency extra so this had to mean they had some other income (they did not!). And then there were the “leaks” of private info.

          And, the people at the desks were often not Kiwis at all, certainly not locals. Some had a police-state mentality when they approached a client. Desk-johns from South Africa were commonplace.

          One time a Kiwi lady was attending to her client and she whispered to that client that they “had” to act in the way that they were, that they were directed to do so. She was not at all comfortable with those directions.

          Please don’t give those meaningless platitudes and generalisations when you obviously have NO personal experience of the situation. Thanks.

        • The problem is government departments stay on their own path.

          My first reply was to this comment by Trevor. Govt Depts are slow to change, yes, but change they do. It just takes time.

          And the changes over time, under the Nats, were anything but humane. Given time, Jacinda’s govt will continue to bring about far more humane changes, including from direct policy and from the flow-on through the Depts.

  3. “We won’t get anywhere near normal until a vaccine is ready, and that is 12-18months away” –
    Im sure Bill “event201/id2020” Gates will have something ready for you before then

  4. Well since Iv been warning of a big crash since mid 2017 but that big crash is actually going to be a Global Great Depression. Those who think the economy is going to bounce back, with all due respects they’re out of their minds (I say that respectfully, I’m not trying to ridicule anyone).

    We entered into the virus with multiple asset bubbles that were popping. If we look at unemployment numbers they used to look very very good because they didn’t include job contractions or what’s more popularly known as non-essential work or to much bullshit jobs being created.

    So all these horrible numbers don’t actually include the terrible numbers from being in lockdown. So I think we have about three hundred WINZ and wage subsidy claims and we are expecting more because there’s much more pain out there. There’s a total of roughly 100,000 for that 2-4 week period of lockdown so in that sense we are out to subsidies companies that are leveraged into the economy.

    Retail, they’re the first indicator then (F)inance (I)nsurance (R)eal (E)state., the FIRE economy. Consumer credit and finance companies are not only sensitive to unemployment they’re leveraged into unemployment but generally that’s the wrong business at the wrong time to be in and there’s a lag time with retail which shows up straight away the effects of high unemployment and people not shopping ect.

    So in banking let’s say you’ve got $1 billion and you borrow another $20 billion from bank deposits or what ever and loan out $21 billion dollars, so you can only afford a 5% move in unemployment before all that money is whipped out. Some banks can survive at least half won’t because we can’t bail them all out and that concludes our first Big Short.

    Iv put this out as a freebie to show that the predictive nature of the people that make up The Daily Blog is extremely accurate and that we are correct on roughly 1000 predictions or $60% of all comments and Blogs are roughly accurate right across the board.

    The big thing about stealing a little bit of Country Boys funnies as I have done is you have to swear at bankers a lot so I’ll steal a little bit and say fuck the banks.

    • I think when one goes they all go Sam. And commerce will be unworkable until an alternative money system is put in place. The chaos that will ensue is why governments feel they have to keep bailing out the banks in spite of the injustice of it and the resentment it causes.

      D J S

      • Well if the perfect system is out of reach then tax high income earners down to 67x the average wage and ruthlessly dismantle monopolies.

      • Mortgages are frozen because no one wants a repeat of 2008 and it could stay that way unit employment improves. It’s the cruder card, auto car loans and student loans. Universities was already crying out in pain over student fees and having to cut services. And now this no one will be paying there credit card, in fact they’ll probably be ticking stuff up. So we really are in a bubble.

  5. Best to be cautious here as this viris is already fouind to be adapting to any change in it’s own environment so if we let our guard down it will flare up again.

    We need to keep the tight control on our own mixing with others at preent until we hav a vaccine so being on guard is the best course here, since we are still unsure how this virus can adapt as the science has shown Covid 19 can adapt; – so we need sa caccinne ahead of changing our course.

    Stay at home, in a bubble for now, until we are sure there is a vaccine or if jacinda releases the handbake and the death numbers climb she will loose the election for sure, and she knows this.

  6. Best to be cautious here as this viris is already fouind to be adapting to any change in it’s own environment so if we let our guard down it will flare up again.

    We need to keep the tight control on our own mixing with others at preent until we hav a vaccine so being on guard is the best course here, since we are still unsure how this virus can adapt as the science has shown Covid 19 can adapt; – so we need sa caccinne ahead of changing our course.

    Stay at home, in a bubble for now, until we are sure there is a vaccine or if jacinda releases the handbake and the death numbers climb she will loose the election for sure, and she knows this.

  7. I don’t think the Government has lost the trust of New Zealanders I think they have acted in the nick of time but it’s been a really close run thing. I think most NZers would have been happy with the lockdown earlier, with the borders shut to non nationals earlier, that having cruise ships plying our water in mid March wasn’t a very good idea, that expecting tourists to self isolate for 14 days after arriving was insane, that not quarantining returnees properly took way too long, that not testing everyone symptomatic but not linked to overseas travel was really pushing our luck… but still we seem to have managed to squeak through. Fucking excellent I say!

    Jacinda has been managing the scum of the Lamestreammedia very well. The patience of a saint.

    It’s been reassuring that there’s a bit more to being an epidemiologist than equipping a chimp with the stub of a pencil and a grubby piece of paper and expecting worthwhile results.

    Well done New Zealand. It makes you proud… despite all the usual dicks.

    • cruise ships plying our water in mid March

      That one was a worry for sure, and some of us here on TDB were trying to sound the alarm at the time.

      Jacinda has been managing the scum of the Lamestreammedia very well. The patience of a saint.

      I had not thought I’d ever say this, but Cheers, OMB! 🙂

  8. Thank cripes we don’t have Do Nothing National in charge. They would still be farting about deciding on how best to do as little as possible to minimize the impact on their capitalist utopia – all built on flooding the country with tourists, foreign investors, and immigrants for cheap labour and to keeping their rock lobster economy afloat.

  9. Oh yeah, Jacinda is superb, she brings us a modern form of police state and dictatorship where mobile phone surveillance will become acceptable and the norm. The COVID 19 crisis comes very conveniently for the ones in power, to grab a greater hold of the systems, the people in general, also every business and organisation, now so dependent on government support.

    So we have a horse teeth smiling charm PM, who is actually ridding us from the last bits of freedoms we used to have.

    All for a ‘good’ purpose, to defeat the virus, to protect people’s health and to protect even ‘the nation’ from the virus carried into NZ from other places.

    I wish some fan boys and girls here would bloody well wake up, for a change, and see what is really happening, and what the future will look like.

    It may not even be worth living anymore, with that distancing, observations, general surveillance and endless checking and testing taking place.

    PRIVACY has become a hollow word now, it exists NO MORE.

    • You mean like the NATCCP using the Canterbury EQs as a reason to impose a regional dictatorship, complete with a despot to do Key’s dirty work, work such as trampling all over citizens’ property rights by confiscating their land with no recourse at all. An act of land grab not seen since the 1800s.
      Then highjacking the regional authority, ECAN, by putting in their own stooges in to do their will, to promote massive dairy expansion by robbing the local waterways, consequently polluting the hell out of them as a direct result.
      If you want a perfect example a fascism in the country, you need no more than look at the NATCCP.

    • Marc I am no cheer leader for Jacinda or Labour but your reference to her appearance demeans your argument and you.
      With a small percentage of selfish people around that are pushing the rules we need to be able to bring them to justice and for that to be seen to be happening.
      No doubt life will be tough for some for awhile but the human spirit is strong . One of my early mentors survived the Death Camp and lost everything but started a bakery business and had 2 Germans working for him .
      No one said life was to be easy but to carry hate is a burden you have to decide to make

      • The way the government treats beneficiaries is demeaning. Giving with one hand 25 dollars on top of the main benefit and then taking it off those needing TAS and SB is cunning and mean.

        • taking it off those needing TAS

          This from their website, under “Additional Support (TAS)” :
          In response to COVID-19, renewals are being cleared automatically. We’ll continue to pay you. There’s nothing further you need to do right now. Work and Income NZ TAS

          Any hiccups may be bureaucracy amid the changes that are happening. Thousands of new applicants every day will cause problems and delays. (But if you compare this with the responses of other countries, ours in AO/ NZ is one of the best, from what I’ve seen so far.)

          • This is a bigger stuff-up than David Clark on his bike, imo, in terms of its effects and consequences for so many people. For the people most affected, it is a really big deal.

            They said one thing, then did another. They said they were giving a raise. They did not say they were taking it from the Accommodation Supplement. They need to come clean about this and not misrepresent it. (It’s Sepuloni’s Dept.)

        • taking it off those needing TAS and SB is cunning and mean.

          From your other reply, this is actually happening. Yes, it is incredibly mean-spirited and deceitful.

          The benefit system is a malfunctioning, decaying edifice from past ages. It needs to be put out of its misery and replaced with a liveable, workable UBI. ..One which allows everyone to live safely, healthily and with dignity.

          I posted a comment about that here: TDB 7th April WINZ Toxic Culture Returns

          US Progressives have joined the growing list of countries and groups around the world who see this as the only sane way forward: Progressive Caucus Coronavirus Payments Their proposed package “guarantees economic security for all”.

    • An article in Stuff today described ‘Jacinda’s decison’ to place New Zealand in lockdown after ‘hearing about the thousands of Covid deaths from friends overseas’. WTF? This is all based on an emotional whim? If anything this whole thing certainly seems an overreaction especially after our Health Minister treated the lockdown as a holiday weekend on the mountain bike. No wonder people are seeing it as a medical hoax. As for the PM saying the Easter bunny and tooth fairy are essential workers. Is this a game for her, a time to crack funnies about magical thinking during a period of martial law? This administration needs to put a bit more flesh on their bones.

      • 100,000 deaths worldwide,

        “This is all based on an emotional whim? If anything this whole thing certainly seems an overreaction .”

        Well lives clearly mean nothing to you.

  10. You mean like the NATCCP using the Canterbury EQs as a reason to impose a regional dictatorship, complete with a despot to do Key’s dirty work, work such as trampling all over citizens’ property rights by confiscating their land with no recourse at all. An act of land grab not seen since the 1800s.
    Then highjacking the regional authority, ECAN, by putting in their own stooges in to do their will, to promote massive dairy expansion by robbing the local waterways, consequently polluting the hell out of them as a direct result.
    If you want a perfect example a fascism in the country, you need no more than look at the NATCCP.

  11. The lockdown has all been for nothing. A ninety-something died from Covid in New Zealand today which proves beyond doubt that the isolation, distancing, quarantines, police state, check points, food restrictions, panic buying, media bombardment, death tallies, public threats, arrests, hysteria, suspicions, narking, suppression of dissent, lack of inquiry, manufactured solidarity, virtual signalling, super heroes, putrid surveillance and economic destruction were a waste of time. Or did this person die because they were just old? (I will wait for the backlash – ‘how cruel’, ‘heartless’, ‘what if this was one of your family’? I’m a humanist, socialist, environmentalist, pragmatist, atheist and a scientist. I don’t care about social cancellation but I do care about facts, truth, context, consequence and the millions who die from preventable and premature death every year from dozens of causes, not just a single virus).
    I’m still questioning how this isolation can continue. We can’t remain cut off from the rest of the world and in a bubble as a nation forever. People will come into this country with disease and our people will go into other countries with their ailments. Get over it. And the magic flu vaccine is a red herring. Billions of people in the world do fine without inoculation. Suddenly there is a massive germ aversion in the world, which seems to have manifested in the minds of people like a disease itself, but it is unsustainable.

      • You might enjoy this Helena… And he might well be right. But that doesn’t negate the legitimacy of our government’s action based on the knowledge and advice they have had. And the seriousness with which governments around the world have taken it.
        If they will eventually publish them it will be interesting to compare death rates throughout the world this year with other years, month by month.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48Klc3DPdtk&frags=wn
        D J S

    • Yeah, my opinion is the government got it wrong at the point they moved from closing the border and quarantining arrivals, to forcing tens of thousands into unemployment. Now it looks like what it is: Stupidity at best, wilful vandalism at worst. Not just economic damage either. Well now I guess the gloves are off. At best it totally shatters any link we had to any of our collective pasts, European, Maori, or any where else. All of that was only stopping us from finding a new collective identity. The downside of that is that it doesn’t look like NZders were anywhere near ready for it, and too many will grasp tightly to some old form of capitalism reissued as new material. How an economic system could gain such popularity, practically religious status in the mind of it’s adherents, and be unable to survive seven days of imagined crisis is mind boggling.

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