Simon Bridges has made the announcement today that he is ruling out cutting a deal with NZ First post the 2020 election.
It is supposed to make Simon Bridges look decisive and bold and there is a mathematical pathway to 51% come election day, but it is a deeply flawed bluff.
Simon Bridges knows what it is like to be underestimated, he has been underestimated all his life and during that time Simon has learned the art of the political bluff.
On the first day of the new Labour Government Parliament, Bridges masterfully bluffed Chris Hipkins into believing the Government didn’t have the numbers to vote the Speaker in unchallenged simply by looking confused and excitedly counting the Government benches.
Stupid bloody Chippy fell for it because he didn’t know if they had the numbers either and was strong armed into handing over Select Committee positions in return for a unanimous Speaker vote.
Bridges also bluffed his way with the ‘Treasury hack’ and caused enormous embarrassment to Grant Robertson.
This decision to rule out NZ First is also a bluff, not that he won’t do it, but in that he is projecting a far stronger hand than he actually has.
The mathematical MMP way for National to become the Government is to obtain the highest Party vote on the night and have NZ First sink beneath 5% and have the bulk of the Party reallocation from the wasted votes go his way.
That means National don’t have to get to a 50% Party vote on Election night.
Add in the pressure Sustainable NZ might have on the Green vote, and National’s plan might work as long as ACT can bring in more than Seymour.
This is exactly the same strategy Labour used in 2017, target the smaller parties and hack them off.
The problem for Simon is that his hand isn’t nearly as strong as his bluff hopes for and there are counter tactics Labour can employ now.
Labour can come out and state that the threat of a National/ACT Government and the obscene underfunding they would employ would set NZ back 20 years on environmental, social and equality fronts and that to avoid the extremes of the Right, Labour, the Greens and NZ First will officially work together to defeat such a Government.
That would green light co-operation in Northland & Whangarei for Shane Jones and Winston and green-light co-operation in Central Auckland for the Greens, thus guaranteeing an electorate seat for both minor Parties plus their Party vote representation.
By going so early with this announcement, Simon loses the shock value that might make him seem bold in the peak of the election campaign, and it allows for Labour, the Greens and NZ First to finally start using MMP strategically rather than their ridiculous pious position of being above that kind of thing.
Such a deal would also cement Labour into being the Queen maker in terms of policy direction as NZ First would no longer have that power.
Imagine a second term Government with far more progressive policy and a really, really, really quiet Shane Jones.
The only thing Labour would need convincing of first is that the allegations on political funding that are currently swirling around NZ First would have to be cauterised.
Simon Bridges has made the first strategic blunder of the 2020 election.
I dont believe the logic of this argument. By taking this stand, Simon Bridges has made New Zealand First irrelevant. THe Nats have already said that a vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour…. and that is true. A lot of people resent the excessive power that NZ First has gathered in this coalition. If people simply vote Labour, NZ First has no chance of getting back in.
A smart voter would change his vote from NZ First, not to Labour, but to the Greens, so ensuring Greens get enough votes to be returned but realistically can you imagine a NZ First voter ever voting Green – that is one of the Coalition’s problems? The short fall in NZ First votes will lose the election for Labour.
The fact that there is a referendum being held the same day also doesn’t help Labour. Both referenda are popular and it will remind voters that they were promoted by ACT, which could get above 1% . I think this was a good move by the Nats.
Absolutely. More than half of NZ First’s voters expected Peters to go with the Nats. These people won’t be voting for Winston First in September which will see them under the 5% threshold and they won’t be getting an electoral seat in Northland either… pure wishful thinking. Smart thinking by Bridges. Game on!
… ” Labour can come out and state that the threat of a National/ACT Government and the obscene underfunding they would employ would set NZ back 20 years on environmental, social and equality fronts and that to avoid the extremes of the Right, Labour, the Greens and NZ First will officially work together to defeat such a Government ” …
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Exactly , Martyn.
And that is all they have to do. Nine years of corrupt practice and desperate measures to ‘privatize it all’ dressed up as beneficial ‘ policy’ instead of ‘cash for the mates ‘ in selling off our remaining assets , and mass homelessness – and , – Bennett running round putting beneficiary family’s in motels and plunging them into unpayable amounts of debt forever , – not to mention the IMF ‘suggesting’ John Keys govt was ‘ enabling ‘ tax havens in NZ…
Oh,… and after Pike River,… the working report that stated ‘ worm farming’ was a ‘ high risk occupation’…
Oh screw it… the list is far too long to mention here…
Look this up instead.
thestandard.org.nz › the-great-big-list-of-john-keys-big-fat-lies-updated
The great big list of John Key’s big fat lies (UPDATED) | The …
Jan 27, 2016 – The great big list of John Key’s big fat lies (UPDATED)
And then of course this :
thedailyblog.co.nz › Deconstructing Headlines
435 lies by John Key | The Daily Blog
More like wishful thinking on your part and Bridges.
Prior to 2017 general election: 77% of NZ First voters prefer Labour-led Government
https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/winstons-choice-77-of-his-voters-prefer-labour-led
Current polling has NZFirst on 4.3% so even a loss of just 20% would be detrimental to their reelection chances
That was in March 2017. Polls around the election were around 50% for National.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/116301095/nz-first-voters-preferred-national-to-labour-at-2017-election-by-wide-margin
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1708/S00626/new-zealand-first-voters-split-over-coalition-options.htm
But it’s certainly true that I wishfully hope for the final extinction of Winnie.
Bridges is “hoping” to make N.Z. irrelevant. If he doesn’t, then he’s screwed. The fact that he now is enlisting Australia’s help should be alarming and more evidence he is out of his depth. He and his party will once again resort to “dirty politics”. The SFO may have found Bridges innocent in the $100,000 Chinese donation, however he is implicated by association.
All of which leads to a party that any sane individual wouldn’t touch with a barge pole, not unless you have extremely low morals.
Sorry Martyn, but this was on the cards and it was only the matter of timing before the announcement.
I can’t see any downsides for National for this. Come September and whatever the result, Winston was never going with National, remember it’s been 22 years since he last did and he has been tied to the hip with Labour ever since (although he’ll try to tell you otherwise).
Btw I’ve yet to hear a scenario where Labour gifts Winston a electorate seat that is workable.
If anything, this should help out the Greens, or are both NZ first and the Greens going to remain Labours lap dogs?
Hi BG. You love the National Party don’t you? Stay strong brother.
This is not John Key vs Andrew Little.
The is Jacinda vs The Leader-of-the-Opposition.
Yknow The-Leader-of-the-Opposition talks a good game Yknow tough on crime and so on and so on. But when it come to criminals like Trump, China’s Sectrete Police man and Dutere, The-Leader-of-the-Opposition turns into a paper-tiger. What big, strong man your guy is going ham on low wage single mothers on welfare. There’s probably a few bureaucrates right now inside WINZ scheming this is our chance.
But convicted drug smugglers with the prime minister’s personal phone number on speed dial, gets residency? But hey just ‘read between the lines’
Btw I’m not a National supporter, I’m a typical swing voting.
Well yeah, I’m making the distinction between unorganized crime and people organizing the state against its own citizens.
‘ Lap dogs ‘ , – L0L !!!
What would you have called the two one man bands called Act and United Future then ? Were the Maori party that much better? … the voters didn’t seem to think so…
And now National STILL has no friends. And as for any other up and comings new kids on the block , – whose to say they wont be churned into mincemeat and made into ‘ lap dogs ‘ if NATIONAL did get in ? National is the party of FPP, not MMP. They are the dinosaurs of autocratic rule.
And that’s why they were kicked out last election.
We didn’t like their arrogance.
They still haven’t changed.
And we didn’t like their Dirty Politics either, btw…
Its MMP, so why call minor parties lap dogs? and do you remember Winston Peters winning Northland in 2015? theres the scenario for you.
Do you seriously think he will try that again?
Well NZFirsts usefulness in dragging the $20 billion NZDF recapitalization figure around should be by all rights enough on its own to get NZFirst reelected.
You have been hoping for Simons demise for months but it was wishful thinking and while I am sure you know more about the deals that go on behind the scenes than most to me it seems a show of force and has cut one of Winstons many heads
Absolute arrogance rather than a show of force. Remember the Jamie Lee Ross tapes?
But then that’s Nationals problem, Bridges arrogance and the polls say he’s just not that well liked and hard to believe anything he says.
Winston has spades on Bridges.
Trev I think soimon is already gone, people just don’t like him okay please can you get that into your head
His polling says it all it has been consistently low that is why judeath has released her memoirs. I wonder if she is going to reflect on her oravida self promotional trip, the one she got exposed on for heading in the wrong direction to the airport.
It’s interesting to watch reaction.
Kiwiblog is overwhelmingly positive on this.
The standard is deathly quiet.
I have a strong belief in holding parties to account whoever they are.
Let’s hope NZ first get the dustbin this election they so richly deserve.
It was reported as a ” BOMBSHELL ” that they won’t deal with Peters.
The language by the corporate political editors whenever they are reporting on Bridges and National is almost bordering on hysteria and they don’t deserve the attention they are given.
Anybody with a brain of a fruitfly could have worked out that they were never going too kowtal too NZ First.
If that means that Winston is out after September and Labour -lite and the Greens have enough party votes then maybe we might just have a more progressive program should they make it back.
Winston and his supporters are old style conservatives and despite the fact that he promised too scale back the free market aligning more with Labour – lite that the Nasty Natz since 1999 he has done squat when it comes too dismantling anything.
The other lie being peddled is that his supporters want him in a coalition with only National , how convenient for Bridges and corporate media that that will mean the rug has been pulled from under Winston’s feet.
His supporters despise the National party and how they have conducted themselves where Winston is concerned and so far Nationals ” assassination ” attempts have failed too keep him out for long.
Sorry Martyn, but there is zero chance that Winnie will go with national after the next election so this is the ONLY sensible choice.
Win lose or draw, getting rid of Winnie can only be good for this country.
Oh I see TS has a thread on this now.
I’m not seeing “happy” as I’d expect if this move played in to labour hands..
“Confused Dross” seems an appropriate summary.
Well I see this as a win for NZ in that this may knock Winston out of parliament, a win for Labour and the Greens in that even if Winston does get to 5% he has less power at the negotiation table (if hes needed at all) and a win for National in that the right-leaning voters of NZFirst now know without a shadow of a doubt that a vote for Winston is a wasted vote (although they should have known that anyway)
So a win for everyone and, hopefully, Winston is consigned to the dustbin
It’s a non story as only the biggest of idiots would expect the Nats and Winston First to work even badly together let alone constructively. All the Nats announcement does is stop all the endless and pointless speculation.
Moving on….
jACINDA WILL CHANGE HER MIND ALWAYS DOES.
Jacinda will change her mind and offer Winston a liferaft.
No no, she’s only telling the truth during this campaign remember.
I’m surprised at your lack of political comprehension Martyn
This is an obvious move I recommended a few months ago.
Typically NZF voters are a nationalist/isolationist fringe group and most of their voters I have met expected Winston to go with national and pull national to the right. They see the coalition with Labour as treachery.
So by making his position clear, voters know that a vote for NZF is a vote for another Labour/Green coalition. This will greatly undermine NZF and they will not make their 5%. So Jones has to do some kind of dodgy deal in Northland for NZF to survive.
I’m not surprised by your political incomprehension Andrew.
Winston is right, Bridges arrogance will come back to haunt him.
He only has Act now, oh and N.Z’s media to get him across the line, there is no one else, so Bridges just cut his margins. Others thought Bridges was smart, however I have known different for a long, long time.
And every election people pile on St Peters …. and then he reappears! As if by magic. Labour needs NZF because the Gweens are dog tucker.
In one respect you have to understand Simon’s rational, as too many partners gets complicated. I mean Nat/Act/NZF/CCP looks kind of messy.
Nope, again it is a smart move, as half of NZ First voters tend to be rather conservative, who would otherwise vote Nats, rather than Labour or Greens or ACT. So Bridges tells them, do not bother voting for Winston, as you will then only help Labour back in. Hence they are forced to consider Nats or not vote at all, leaving NZ First out of Parliament.
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