National Party plunge in latest poll, why they should worry & why Simon Bridges is a dead man walking

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Simon Bridges is a dead man walking, not only have National plunged in the latest poll…

…he’s been over taken by Judith Collins as preferred leader…

…it’s over for Bridges. He managed to survive the Summer but with plummeting polls and Judith now more popular than him, he’s blown his chance to lead into 2020.

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Here’s a man clutching at tweets…

…s-u-r-e, Dvid, b-u-t it’s the huge statistical jumps isn’t it? Those numbers are huge and show either an enormous momentum change out there in voter land OR it’s a rogue poll.

National’s vote has collapsed because the JLR & Simon Bridges fight has shocked voters and turned them away and Labour’s vote has jumped because people are genuinely proud now of Jacinda Ardern.

If this poll is real, and not a rogue poll, National are in terrible trouble and the need for a cauterisation, like a Leader replacement, is on the cards. The trouble here is Bridges, he can’t be more than he is, is Judith the replacement? Of course not, the battle is won in the centre, but frightened MPs will look for strength and Collins eats strength and the hearts of small rodents for breakfast.

Bridges should NEVER have ordered that inquiry, everything that happened after that was his lack of vision and strategical thinking – Matthew Hooton was clearly out of the country for that call.

If National can support the New Conservatives to keep NZ First under 5% and push Blue Greens to pull the Greens under 5%, the rules of MMP mean National would just have to get to 47% and gain the wasted vote to win an outright majority. But that tactic only works when you can get to  47% and with Simon Bridges, they can’t do that.

With the Greens just hanging on, you can see the logic in National promoting Blue Greens just to bring them under the 5% threshold, just like NZ First.

The importance of Shane Jones winning Northland is an existential issue for them now.

The drumbeat for Judith will begin and whatever damage JLR has left will probably be enough to sink Bridges.

In short, the latest poll is important because of the huge jump in the stats – the poll is either a rogue Poll (most likely) or shows an enormous momentum in the electorate towards Labour & against National – 4.9% up is HUGE as is a 3.5% drop – right wing pundits will pray this is rogue.

 

 

33 COMMENTS

  1. Bridges is indeed a dead man walking. But knowing the well trodden and true track record of National he will blame everyone else but the face staring back at him in the mirror.

    No one wants a weak Prime Minister and if he ever became one Bridges would behave like a weakling at every twist and turn.

    In recent weeks Bridges has shown to us all how weak and gutless he truly is.

    If anyone in the NZ National Party deem Simon Bridges worthy of being Leader then it’s time they spoke up. But it’s likely now the daggers will be out and Simon Bridges will find his days numbered as the National Party Leader.

    Mind you I do suggest National keeps Bridges as their leader because it looks like everything he says and does is such a joke that it reflects back upon National tenfold.

    • SIMON’S WORST NIGHTMARE IN 2020 (satire)

      SIMON at election Polls close: “I’m feeling very confident, that we managed to get our message across, and ran a good race!”
      SIMON later that evening: “Its too close to call. Despite my leadership being as popular as a piece of dog turd stuck to your shoe…it looks like our positioning has pushed NZFirst and the Greens under the threshold…so it’s now more or less a two horse race…but I’m still quite confident!”
      SIMON at midnight: “I’m very happy with the results so far. We are on the cusp of assuming government…particularly if the specials go as predicted.”
      SIMON taking a call from Jacinda: “Sorry Jacindy, but what goes around comes around, you know. Seems like you’ve lost your coalition partners, just like happened to us in 2017. But I think we should both be happy that neither one of us has to negotiate with the Wincer again!”
      SIMON several weeks later, just after the specials are counted: “What do you mean JLR managed to hold on as an MP, and now holds the balance of power! How can that be possible…did I wake up in a pererlerl univoice or soomthing…Whats going on…I’ve got to calm down and get control of myself…after all I’m a former elite prosecutor…used to negotiating even in the toughest pressure situations…I can do this…I must do this…I will do this! Lets just put the past behind us, because I’m sure JLR can be reasonable…we’ll let bygones be bygones, as they say!”
      SIMON the next day, on JLR’s doorstep: “Knock knock…JLR, are you in there…it’s your besty mate Simo here…from the good ole days…I’m now the pryminster in woyting…you must remember me…we really need to talk. I’m sure it’s just a formality, but we still need to go through the motions of having coalition discussions, so everything looks kosher…okay?”
      JLR: “Wow…this is such a surprise…it’s great to see you again Si…it’s been so long…..come on in. My terms before I even start negotiating, may seem somewhat harsh but fair…firstly I want you to demote yourself to the backbench…and then ensure that puerile Paula gets locked into the local gorilla enclosure, so she can feel at home! Please try to relax…get comfy…and sit on this spike…while I put a live scorpion down your back…nah just kidding…it’s actually two live scorpions and an angry tarantula!
      Now, if you want power, then of course I’m willing to help you out with that…just attach these electrodes to your body…that’s it, you’re a natural! Here, put on your handcuffs and blindfold…for security reasons, of course! Now lets make a start shall we… would you prefer, a nip of brandy or waterboarding…oh what luck, I’m all out of brandy! These negotiations are going to be great…more enjoyable than I ever imagined!!!”

    • I guess Shane must also build those 10 ‘bridges that ‘simple Simon’ has promised the north but didn’t build?

      OR;

      Maybe Jacinda will use the ‘National underhanded political scheme’ to offer a seat in Auckland for Winston or Shane or a ‘greenie’ like the corrupt National Party did to save ACT Party in Epsom?

  2. My biggest concern is that Jacinda is rated so highly, even Labour, while they have only done little bits of policy changes and improvements for some workers and few on benefits.

    Now it is abundantly clear, that the rotten MSM and double speak politicians and even technocrats of the PC brigade have succeeded in destroying the rest of common sense and intellect in this country.

    Most people have become so shallow, so self centred, self serving and dumbed down, they do not have a clue about politics. Political judgment is now made upon reading Women’s Weekly reports with nice pics with Jacinda, or with following social media where pics are shared and nice superficial gossip and ‘chattery’ rule.

    NO analysis of policy, NO thorough analysis and evaluation of parties’ positions on policy, NO serious considerations, all just warm fussy stuff, and shallow stupid embracing of whosoever is popular at the time.

    That explains why John Key was so ‘popular’ with many in the middle class for so long, the disease had already taken hold, now it continues, only with another charming leader with little substance, of another party, that is neither here nor there on truly serious issues.

    NZ politics is screwed totally now.

    With this, forget elections, they will not be fought and won on real policy and on substance, they will be popularity contests, little else.

    Hence neoliberalism is here to stay, facilitating careers for those who are easy to buy or compromise, and they have strings behind them, being pulled by others.

    This poll means nothing to me, and while Bridges may have to worry, what does it mean for the next election and the second term, if Labour gets one?

    It means more muddling through by a government that governs stupid people, who simply do not want much change, come climate change or not, they could not care less.

    • Marc I agree with what you say here, but I specifically asked our local newsagent who buys the women’s mags and they said older women.

      Analysis of National’s plunge should not under-estimate the insidious effect of Paula Bennett whom I regard as leaky as a Dakota crude oil pipe line. Bennett’s announcement to the media that J-L Ross’s behaviour was inappropriate for a married MP appalled decent people.

      It was unprecedented in NZ political history, and was an inappropriate behaviour for any political leader, more so in the context of her victim having mental health issues.It stunned even the apolitical.

      And only a moron would not see Bennett’s office leaking dirt on Hurimoana Dennis as bitchery because Te Puea Marae was succeeding in helping the homeless and unemployed in a way that her govt had failed to – not only failed, but blathered away that there was no homeless crisis at all. The homeless issue touched a raw nerve in this country where we now see the street people and beggars previously only seen overseas.

      Key’s popularity was hugely helped by dumbo MSM for absolutely no good reason. Maybe a free bottle of wine at Christmas trickling down gullible greedy throats.

  3. I think Tova must have wet herself given her excitement that Bridges is a dead man walking and that Judith is a viable contender even with 6% support.
    Not surprising who Media Works think should be Nationals leader and who they will supporting.
    Never mind Labour’s remarkable comeback from two years ago.
    Watch the media nasties promote Collins and turn on Bridges in the next few months.
    Parliament should be worth a watch this afternoon.

    • That is rude and insulting. Just because TV3’s political journo is a woman you can dismiss her and demean her with totally sexist comments! When Patrick Gower was there no one started comments about him in that way. I expect Whale Oils fan boys to go on about women wetting themselves not left wing commentators. No it is not because I am “woke” it is because I believe a woman doing a job should not be diminished because of her sex. If you see us as less than a man doing the same job you are part of the problem

      • Yes, Lucy. Mosa’s comment is unacceptably crude, puerile, and demeaning to women.

        Should we make exceptions for these Mosas who mistake jargon, and cliches for profundity ?

        No. There are too many boorish misogynist misfits already littering the political landscape. Perhaps crowd-fund some colouring-in books for him, or send him bus tickets to read.

      • Lucy it was not intended as a sexist remark.
        If it had been Gower or any other male presenter behaving the way she was i would have made the same comment to make my point.
        Read any of my replies and you will see that it is my outrage at our pathetic media , male or female.
        I have have huge respect for Kim Hill, Jane Kelsey and Helen Kelly who we lost in 2016 and their contribution to our country.
        I have also written in support of equal pay for woman and better pay for our working poor.
        I have been called a lot of things in my long life but sexist is not one of them.
        Until now

  4. I briefly stomached kiwiblog the other day to see what the right wing spin said.
    Farrar was not so subtly sprinkling for 500 people to join the blue green puppet party so enuff said about the blue green option authenticity.
    The resident collection of nasty self centered dimwits weren’t buying it either.

    • I hope you wore a hazmat suit and went through some sort of intensive decontamination process afterwards. Once you’ve been to KiwiBlog, you’re never the same. I’ve heard it’s akin to post-traumatic stress disorder.

  5. The key numbers in that poll is not the Nats, mid term at 42% won’t scare them, but Winston First under 3% should scare the crap out of team Stardust.

    A Winston in a tight corner is a wild card Winston. If he feels like he’s becoming irrelevant he will go after Stardust and that could end very badly for many.

    Interesting times.

    • If you cherry pick stats you will see what you want to see. The reality is the Greens and Labour would govern alone. Does that make them a “startdust” team similar to the “rock star economy” team because as we know rock star was bullshit.

      • 🙂 Yes Bert you are correct, when you cherry pick, as you do so much, so often and with that very response, you do tend to lose site of reality as you demonstrate well sometimes.

        I just made a comment about one aspect of the poll just like others are commenting on other aspects of it. There is no need to feel scared or threatened or have to make shit up.

        • “I just made a comment about one aspect of the poll”
          Thank’s Pete,you confirmed my comment, you cherry picked one aspect. You then went on to pretend to now my thoughts. As for feeling scared pfff, did you just make that shit up, or was it your 10 year old big sister?

          As for reality when you resort to name calling “Stardust” you delve deep into the realm of psychosis.

  6. David Farrar would see beauty in shit if it were National shit. He’d be on about the lovely colour or texture or the fragrance.

    He’s eating it and the piquancy has got him!

  7. You might be right about Bridges – As a Nat voter I find he’s pretty underwhelming and I originally wanted Collins as leader. He’s not even second on my list as preferred National leader.

    But I wouldn’t set too much store in one poll taken over the Christmas break, when the public has other things on it’s mind.

    This year Labour faces a major headwind: They vastly over promised and this will be thrown back in their face on every possible occasion. GDP growth is sliding fast and unemployment is up. Kiwibuild is a fiasco of their own making and Jacinda’s promise to house the homeless is not been met, as we knew it wouldn’t.

  8. Simon might not be the leader National needs, but heaven help everyone if Collins takes his place.
    Nasty, underhanded, untrustworthy, manipulative, dodgy (think Oravida debacle), cunning, unscrupulous, dangerous, hypocritical… I could go on. You get the idea.
    I still don’t understand how she got back into Parliament. She was shown the door and skulked out with her tail between her legs due to her skulduggery, only to re-appear and sneak back in through a side entrance some time later.
    Surely ‘kicked out’ should mean just that? Go and don’t come back?
    How does this even happen?
    Was the previous ejection simply a “you’ve been a bad girl, go and sit on the naughty step for a while”?

  9. A friend of mine had a brief chat with Simon Bridges the other day when he turned up for a meeting and was on his own.
    Her impression was a positive one as he was friendly and cordial and very different to other Nats who have made an appearance here in the past who give the impression they are made of stone and the air of arrogance is permanating around them.
    She offered him a coffee but he requested some hot water instead.
    She was about to say aren’t you in enough of that already when he had to rush off for his appointment.
    She thinks he would have laughed at the joke so at least he has possibly a sense of humour.

  10. Simon Bridges is the best thing Jacinda could have hoped for. As long as he ‘leads’ the opposition, even while her stardust may go, but she would still have a chance to lead Labour to a win in 2020.

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