PRESIDENT-ELECT JAIR BOLSONARO and Halloween are made for each other. If you’re attempting to evoke feelings of fear and dread, then the next President of Brazil is indisputably the right man for the job. For sheer terror, however, nothing beats contemplating the people whose votes propelled him into office.
What does it say about the 55 percent of Brazilian voters who supported Bolsonaro that they were willing to set aside his open support for the former military dictatorship? (Apparently its biggest failing was not killing enough dissidents!) Or, that they refused to be put off by his overt expressions of racism, misogyny and homophobia? (He’d rather his son was dead than gay.) How could a country which, for the past decade-and-a-half, had voted for the left-wing Workers’ Party, suddenly be persuaded to elect the “Trump of the Tropics”?
One might just as easily ask: How could the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 possibly have voted for Donald Trump in 2016? Or: What made the men and women of Waitakere, Labour supporters for most of their lives, deliver their votes to National’s Paula Bennett in 2008? What is it that leads people to vote against their own objective interests?
The straightforward answer to that question is the subjective rage of a hard-pressed and/or deeply disillusioned electorate. Such was certainly the case in Brazil. Under the Workers’ Party, the Brazilian economy, following an impressive initial surge in the early 2000s, succumbed to a vicious recessionary one-two punch inflicted by the global financial system. After lifting the living standards of 20 million of the poorest Brazilians, the Workers’ Party was bullied by its Wall Street creditors into imposing a grim austerity regime on the Brazilian working-class.
As if this wasn’t enough, an unflinching team of investigators had exposed political corruption on a truly massive scale. Its stain had spread inexorably through the entire Brazilian political class; undermining and ultimately destroying two Workers’ Party presidents (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as “Lula”, and Dilma Rousseff.) In the election just past, districts which had been Workers’ Party strongholds for decades went to Bolsonaro by wide margins. Partly, this was a reflection of angry and embittered Workers’ Party supporters seeking revenge; but mostly, it was the consequence of mass working-class abstentions. Huge numbers of former Workers’ Party supporters simply stayed at home.
The disillusionment of working-class voters, and the demobilisation of working-class political strength it encourages, produces two extremely dangerous political effects. First, it allows the Right to shrug-off any obligation to conduct itself responsibly. Without the consciousness of having to behave itself – or suffer the electoral consequences – the Right feels free to up-the-ante by encouraging its more unruly elements to give free rein to their most incendiary rhetoric. The result is a swift and pronounced deterioration in the political climate – an environment in which the Right is obviously best placed to flourish.
Restraint having become electorally counterproductive, the scene is thus set for the second extremely dangerous political effect to manifest itself.
Strong and progressive working-class parties not only discourage the parties of the Right from behaving badly, they also serve to isolate and disarm the more conservative elements within their own ranks. These people may privately abhor many of the policies advanced by the Left’s leaders – especially those relating to race, sexuality and gender. But, so long as “their” party delivers economically, the open expression of racist, sexist and homophobic views is resisted. If, however, their economic security and status is undermined by their own party’s policies, and its support declines accordingly, then the willingness of working-class conservatives to go on biting their tongues will decline with it.
Working-class demobilisation thus produces a perfect political storm. It emboldens the worst elements of the Right even as it causes the political discipline among working-class conservatives to weaken. The result is an apparent coming together of right-wing middle- and working-class voters: usually around a charismatic right-wing leader who is willing to give eloquent voice to all those inflammatory prejudices which, in less dangerous times, are kept out of “mainstream” political discourse.
Conservatives of all classes are thereby encouraged to use their vote as a weapon against all those social elements deemed responsible for their loss of security and status.
The result is a Jair Bolsonaro; a Donald Trump; or even – lest we Kiwis begin to feel too smugly superior to all those sad Brazilians and Americans – a Rob Muldoon.
“A Rob Muldoon” – better than “a John Key”
@ E P … Ah? Are you sure you don’t mean ‘on a par with jonky?’
Pig started the rot that’s consumed us. It was pig who laid down the paving for roger douglas and others to waddle up.
The rest is a head-fuck piece of unpleasant quasi-history that’s been redacted and rejiged so often by a corrupted MSM that most NZ/AO people really don’t know what went on to give us this poverty and the sense of loss we feel in our Paradise.
The problem that ‘good’ people must endure is that they’re in a beautiful minority.
The people who ‘love’ unconditionally as a first instinct, those who will help a stranger at the drop of a hat, those who will genuinely grieve for a stranger who’s suffered terrible loss, the kind of people who will hand things in rather than go “Ha Ha sucker. You lost it , I keep it.” Those kinds of people are a rarity. They’re the ones who live in fruity homes where there’re weeds amongst the roses. The vile live behind vertical blinds in beige houses and peer out onto shaved lawns and if there’s a weed? Out comes the Roundup.
Mean, sallow bolsonaro is a rat faced little creature who knows how to exploit the arsehole in the inherently stupid and gleefully unpleasant majority while good people lean back from their TV’s going “ Fuuuuuuuuucccck ! “ . And because they, the ‘good’ people just realised how few they are in numbers they know they’re indeed fucked.
@ CT. You write;
“ …. his overt expressions of racism, misogyny and homophobia? (He’d rather his son was dead than gay.)”
That’s exactly what I’d expect a narcissist to say. The son will always be his fathers possession. bolsonaro’s son will never be an individual in his own right. Even long after his fathers death. Good Brazilian people should be very afraid.
You lift me up, as much as I want to go, to poetry Countryboy.
Instant solution, or religion, is always out there (religion: pay later for immediate comfort). Muldoon worked the muscle weakness in our Welfare State, yet he believed in it fundamentally. Is that why Holyoake favoured him as his successor?
After him, the storm.
good analysis, Bolsonaro`s tendency to conflate political activism with violent crime makes a future coup more rather than less likely (in the name of national security of course – just like last time)
Same thing screws over every other military. Lack of ammo, food and component leadership. Once that goes they really ain’t that loyal.
Looks like another evil b …d in power just what the world needs and wait till Merkel is gone we will see big problems in Germany too its just a matter of time more unrest more divisiveness and so on and at a time when we have the Russians and Saudis playing up.
Say what you will about Mutti, good, bad, what ever.
There are no static sectors any more, they moved to the east and they’re not coming back. All the new jobs is in the tertiary sector, in the services sector, in renewables. We just need to get a grip on our universities because they’re being run by a bunch of no hopers desperate to appease the austerity gods.
We aren’t going to build more universities so we have to expand the ones we already have not close libraries ect. Theres many levers the government can pull to punish any dissident. Air New Zealand Chairmen resigned + other trade scenarios with other players. Its over. Jacinda is in charge & Winston has no choice but to play game.
You have been reading to many headlines the russians playing up? if you ever have the time I suggest you listen to one of Validimir Putins many Q&A sessions you will come to realise he is the most intelligent and rational world leader by some margin. Almost all the chaos in the world is caused by the industrial war machine and business interests that make up this sector of the American economy and the same holds true for what has happened in Brazil
Spot on Aircooledguy.
Agree 100% AIRCOOLEDGUY
Me too
Aircooledguy: “I suggest you listen to one of Validimir Putins many Q&A sessions you will come to realise he is the most intelligent and rational world leader by some margin.”
Exactly! I also agree with the rest of your comment.
Michelle: “…wait till Merkel is gone we will see big problems in Germany too…”
Why would you think that? Germany was a prosperous democracy before Merkel, there is no reason to suppose that will not continue. Merkel is by no means the longest-serving of the post-War German chancellors, either. That prize goes to Helmut Kohl, who was in power for 16 years. It’s tended to be a bit of a pattern with German chancellors, that they stay a long time in office; though there’ve been a few who’ve had short terms. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to remember all the way back to Konrad Adenauer, the first post-War chancellor: his term lasted 14 years.
“…at a time when we have the Russians and Saudis playing up.”
I’m not sure where you’re getting your news; that certainly isn’t true of the Russians, and the Saudis aren’t a large enough polity to do more than cause trouble in their own backyard, as they are at present. And if they didn’t have the support of the US, they likely wouldn’t be able to get up to even as much mischief as they have.
As to Russia: we have that polity to thank for averting a shooting war in the eastern Mediterranean. Count your blessings: I wouldn’t bet money on our current government not getting involved in conflict there, had things escalated. Which – fortunately – they haven’t. Yet. I dunno about you, but I’m damned if I’ll see my offspring (or anybody else’s from NZ) trucked off to the ME as cannon fodder, just because our government believes it has to support our so-called allies. Two of my uncles were blown to bits at Gallipoli in 1915: no remains even to bury, let alone to repatriate. That’s quite enough death from my family, in pursuit of wild geese in the ME, thanks very much.
If you wish to be concerned about the potential for conflict in the world right now, I recommend that you pay attention to what the crazies in NATO are up to right now. Anybody’d think that they actually WANT to go to war. Oh wait….
When the murderous PRC regime is not treated like North Korea, but rather condoned, lauded and accepted into the international community and economy (Mao the greatest murderer of all time)… what do expect will happen? Authoritarian is where it’s at… it’s all about money and property values… the Chinese economy is showing the way… expect this trend to continue… Back to the (Mad Max) Future!!!
Castro: “When the murderous PRC regime is not treated like North Korea, but rather condoned, lauded and accepted into the international community and economy…”
You could equally be talking about the US. And the UK, come to that. Greatest murderer of all time, huh? Mao’s facing a fair bit of competition in that regard, from those polities and others, of course.
Saw a Brazilian comment: gangs are making the lives of the brazil people a misery. B has promised to eradicate this evil once and for all, like that Philippines leader. Why they voted for him, law and order.
Met two Sau palo cops, both told me that to stay alive they had to take the money or there family are (hand motions across neck) those Brazilian slums are carved out of mountain sides. You ain’t getting them out, no way.
Its the perpetual lie. Every politician says they’ll get tough on crime, they say that in every election across the globe and then when they’re booted from office they’re not making tough on crime claims will solve the problem. Because they know it’s a lie. Even Coca Cola Colman can’t even maintain the perpetual lie that National presided over the bitchingness health budget ever, if it was true they’d be crossing about it to a fourth term. Bummer.
The Brazilian people who voted for ‘b’ on that basis, then, are wrong. That’s why it’s dangerous to allow the Great Unwashed an opportunity to wield the mighty power of ignorance via a delicate piece of equipment like ‘the vote’.
Brutality is never going to work on an unhinged population manipulated into chaos by foreign influence, which the USA is particularly adept at for example. Duterte, the Philippine psychopath has built layer upon layer of terrible harm on people in free fall. The place is a shit hole. No wonder the poor bastards need to get high.
Poverty, the criminality of drugs, and a sense of hopelessness are the ingredients of dysfunction. We NZ/AO’s, of all people, should know that.
The reason Pan Africa will leap frog the EU and possibly Japan is because Africa is far more progressive on the regulatory front, they allow a lot more to happen.
There is a lot more business in the U.S but the U.S is comparatively small compared to the rest of the world. So the U.S has 25% of financial velocity and the rest of the world has 75% with that ratio you don’t have to pick or chose you can do both.
If you’re doing good then help people in, spread the word similar with diversity and the more energy we have to keep things going for the next time the better.
Brazilian commodities don’t have the popularity it once did, it’s no good when foreigners end up dead and you know CNN/FOX do a lot of short stories on them but these big media cartels don’t cover any of the innovative start ups in the South American Space because they’re still stuck in Cold War mode.
At this point Blsonaro has a lot of work to do and he plans to go in hard and leave an old school legacy like Pinochet. The best way to get votes is to either earn it or buy it. It’s a totally different paradigm to what democracy says on the tin. Brazil was over priced any way, they needed a clip and a clip is what they’re going to get.
No one is happy about this situation in fact no one is happy with the big macro picture world wide and every one is doing what they’re supposed to do when 2+2=6.
I did just catch up with a Brazilian I met years ago when the person was in New Zealand. I was only a bit surprised about what the person confided to me, saying, they now hoped Brazil would come out better under Bolsonaro’s leadership.
When I had another Brazilian stay with me temporarily over a year and a half ago, I learned that things are terrible in Brazil, they had years ago enjoyed a boom period, partly based in high petroleum prices (Petrobras is one of the largest producers world wide), they also enjoyed a boost in exports of resources like soy beans and the likes to China.
Things looked good under Lula, for a while, and his government went about to redistribute wealth to support the poor Brazilians, many of whom are descendants of African slaves and who live in many of the favelas or in the impoverished North East.
They also brought in improvements to workers’ rights and minimum standards and incomes were lifted. Big business could cope with that, especially when the economy was ticking along nicely.
But then came the drop in oil prices and also a slowing of the economy in China and other places, suddenly the exports dropped, and internally pressures went onto businesses and individuals, now faced with high costs, which they smaller ones could no longer cope with anymore, making life unbearable. Job losses were happening everywhere, and people were forced to tap into their savings, if they had any.
The poor resorted to more desperate measures, as casual work did not provide enough, crime seems to have increased, and dodgy practices. Drug dealing was done to supplement income, and government payouts were not enough for many to survive.
As in any country, when the good times turn to bad times, and things go downhill, people get worried, scared and desperate. As it is, the crisis in Brazil, although the worst was slowed down a year or two ago, has lingered on for longer than most ordinary mortal humans would cope with.
So adding the corruption scandals, which appear to have had some substance when being proved, also involving the Workers’ Party and so, people became ever more divided. The present government is tied into corruption scandals, and few people saw anything positive in any politician. In such an environment it is easy for the extremist hard talkers to win votes, that is what Bolsonaro did and succeeded with.
He is no Hitler, but Hitler exploited similar desperation in Germany when he rose to power, and Bolsonaro did the same in Brazil now.
Only the desperate and blindly faithful stuck with the left and Hadad, many others did not bother voting or votes Bolsonaro. Especially the middle class, who lost a lot of income and wealth, after they had enjoyed some very good years, they voted for him, also to deal with crime and so.
Expect a ruthless government to take over, a bit like General Pinochet had in Chile, and expect polarisation in Brazilian population and media, which is sadly lacking, mostly owned by a few corporates or individuals that are rich and powerful.
Bolsonaro wants to allow more mining in the Amazon area, and possibly will let the deforestation and so continue. It shows when people are desperate, the last thing they care about is the environment. They only think of themselves now and want quick and easy solutions. If that involves dealing ruthlessly to enemies or disliked parts of the populations, they will have no issue with that, they will turn the other way, if they would not participate in the witch hunt and so themselves.
Modern day fascism has many faces, Bolsonaro is one of it.
The war coming will boil down to a holy war of evil v good.
US, Israel, England, France (nato), Brazil, Australia, Ukraine on the evil side v Russia, China, Venezuela, Turkey, Iran. Question is where will NZ sit. Can we break free from the US, England bullshit, we once defied US on nukes and luckily survived. War is a blink from starting in Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela. Where will we sit
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