The new strategic paper pointing out China and Russia are a threat is a long time coming. When you look at how deep China’s influence inside the National Party is, to the point of having a spy inside their caucus, pointing out the negative soft power is righteous.
How China responds will matter. They could slow imports to hurt us, or they could stoke pro-China protests on the streets of Auckland to cause domestic unrest. Consider how China created the pro-China Tibet protests in Auckland in the late 2000’s.
The problem with naming China and Russia is that it locks us into Trump’s America, but with our addition in the 5 Eyes spy club it’s difficult to not be run by Washington.
Buying warplanes that have an offensive capacity is an enormous ramping up of militarisation of our military and looking at gaining a capacity we currently don’t have, that’s why the Greens are righteous in seriously questioning this ramping up of our military capacity…
…yes, yes, yes – there’s been a lot of scorn poured over her for her claims to be the first woman to hold the Defence portfolio, she has all the political general knowledge of your average Millennial who thinks it’s all about them, but that aside, she’s completely right about this sudden ratcheting up of our ability to project power.
The price tag is a joke, that’s the cost of the planes, to put all the weapons on them and maintain those weapons will adda another half billion if we are lucky.
Domestically this is smart politics for NZ First. Pointing out China’s influence inside NZ is also a message aimed at dislodging National Party supporters who are watching the rise of the Blue Dragons inside the National Party with alarm. If China does use it’s influence over local Mandarin Newspapers to stoke protest action, NZers will panic when they see the size of those protests.
In terms of what we should do in the China vs America clash, I think our first allegiance is to NZ as an independent Pacific nation with its own independent foreign policy.
That should be our touchstone value in everything we do.
We do not want America expanding its military control or mass surveillance state powers into the Pacific anymore than we want China to.
China’s behaviour in the South Pacific over the ownership of reefs they have built into military bases defies claims that their rise to power and expansion of influence is not aggressive.
America’s ‘respect my authority’ positioning and trade wars aren’t alleviating tensions, they are increasing them.
If we wish to maintain our Independence, we need to show leadership by openly criticising both sides and asking for a more peaceful, productive and collaborative co-operation in the Pacific, especially at a a time of climate change and increasing poverty across the Pacific.
I think we have a leader in Jacinda who could articulate this powerful vision and provide that leadership, because if we don’t make a radical departure now we are going to get sucked into the geopolitical vortex between these two and be forced to choose a side that in’t in our true national interests.
We have an enormous number of Pacific Islanders and Asian-New Zealanders living here, they are a natural resource as cultural bridges back to the rest of the Pacific, why not take the strength of our optimistic youth and their fresh ways of inclusion and use them as a Pacific wave of diplomacy to work together and not against in the Pacific?
Why let the war mongers dictate the narrative? Why not have a leader who can articulate a vision of co-operation in the Pacific challenge that narrative by being direct in our criticism while inclusive in our solutions?
Back during the Punic Wars, the small Aeolian Islands between Sicily and Italy had to decide which side they were on. They weren’t given the option of being independent. They chose Carthage and perished.
Yes Martyn, yes to all below.
Yes – we dont want any war-mogering allies, and right now the global and local news media are very strongly pushing the war mongering button.
Who owns the global media? –
Yes of course it is the elitist and corporate thugs like George Soros et are scheming over another war using their media networks, so distance ourselves from them all.
Yes – we need to walk away from the NATO/EU block also as NATO is now actively gunning for a war with Russia.
Yes; – we need to establish our couintry as a fully independant neutral state before that next war comes to our world.
Anyone siding with the Chinese mega-dictatorship over the Yanks who saved us from Japanese expansionism in WWII either needs their head read, or to be executed for treason. It’s coming…
I wrote a thesis a few years ago on China and it’s developing power projection (etc) and I agree that we need to take the possibility of a coming war with China seriously. It’s too late to look to your defenses when you see the sunlight glinting off the spears of your enemies . .
Infantile, “If you not with us you are against us” mentality from Castro.
Who demands that we side with the US global hegemon against its rivals.
The Americans didn’t act to save us from the Japanese they acted to preserve the Pacific Ocean as an American lake, and sphere of influence. Long before Japan attacked Pearl Harobour, the US was involved in a massive trade war with Japan, banning Japan from trading into the Pacific, even going to the length of firing on Japanese merchant ships. Just like China today the rise of Japan was seen as a threat to US global hegemony.
“Chinese Mega dictatorship” You have no idea. Xi is at the top of a pyramid structure of party officials. If he doesn’t perform satisfactorily he will be gone by lunch time.This structure is more like the Democratic Party in America (only more democratic) where delegates get to make sure the preferred presidential candidate is selected or the system in France that ensures only political insiders will be elected. Another commenter has dealt with your assertion that the USA protected us in WWII.
you neglected to say yank MEGA DICTAORSHIP…..as for ww2 it was all about self interest for the yanks and they didnt care if a generation had to pay with their lives either
And thus will require a bigger and better defence force with all their weapons developed and produced in NZ from NZ’s resources. It is the only way to have an independent nation as such a nation needs to be able to defend itself.
Although I agree with your statement I also need to point out that the South China Sea is not in the South Pacific. It’s above the equator.
Unfortunately modern weapons systems are for the most part standoff weapons. All rather expensive. NZ relies on expendable munitions primarily from the US. In a shooting war those may not be forth coming or ma have pwoeful stings attached. Independenty armed states Switzerland, Sweden, etc have double the population and advanced engineering or industry. New Zealand does have a gifted tech sector which would be suitable for developing say a long range all weather drone for monitoring our economic zone, SAR and the largest threat to NZ- submarines threatening economic targets.
No hostile nation would really benefit from occupying NZ we are simply too far to have much use to them for the reward. Eg Easier targets are closer to shiping lanes Digital and economic war and cruise missles fired on mass will be the next frontline, long before our navy, airforce and army can be deployed to a major combat zone. But on a pacific regional level we should maintain a well trained, well motivated force and equipped to respond to any military, terrorist or civilian crisis. Surely we need to respond decisively to any transgression of our sovereignty in whatever form it may come.
We don’t need double the population and we actually do have some seriously advanced engineering. We could do with more.
If we can do that then we can develop the planes and missiles as well. We could then produce them from local resources.
I’m pretty sure you’ll find that China likes the idea. A nice, small breadbasket (they need to feed their excessive population) in a strategic location that gives them good access to the resources of Antarctica.
QFT
I tend to a missile defence shield while still having good aircraft and ships to roam the Pacific.
Infantile, “If you not with us you are against us” mentality from Castro.
Who demands that we side with the US global hegemon against its rivals.
The Americans didn’t act to save us from the Japanese they acted to preserve the Pacific Ocean as an American lake, and sphere of influence. Long before Japan attacked Pearl Harobour, the US was involved in a massive trade war with Japan, banning Japan from trading into the Pacific, even going to the length of firing on Japanese merchant ships. Just like China today the rise of Japan was seen as a threat to US global hegemony.
You say “if we wish to maintain our independence”. How can we maintain our independence when we’ve never been a truly independent nation. We’re an ex-colonial trading nation that is totally dependent on the rest of the world for our very existence, security, ideas & luxuries. Until we don’t need to rely on exports to maintain our standard of living & can sustain ourselves from what we grow, produce & manufacture, we will never be able to develop an independent foreign policy. We will also to need to stop importing so much useless junk & environmentally damaging crap that we really don’t need if we’re to improve our moral & way of life. These things can only be done by a uncompromising, patriotic government with real teeth. Why you wishy washy, bleeding heart, social & economic liberals are so against a little local nationalism when our country is in dire straits really dumbfounds me. Of course if the All Blacks start losing big time this may change. It we’re gonna survive the downfall of ‘the world as we know it’ it will require hard nosed, big picture REAL POLITIK that puts our own interests before those of our foreign masters.
Hate to point this out to you but the Orion aircraft currently in service can deploy bombs and depth charges so the RNZAF has, as you say, an “offensive capacity”. You seem to forget that they also have a SAR capability in the SOPAC region or is this part of their tasking unimportant to you? The level of ignorance about these new aircraft is disturbing indeed.
Oh, I’m aware that we have that current capacity with the Orions, but come on, they are about as offensive in capacity as the machine guns on the side of our Navy ships. You can’t pretend that the vast upgrades represent an enormous jump in offensive capacity.
If they kept the wiring for the AGM84 Anti Ship Missile, the P3K2’s would’ve been able take the Penguin Anti Ship missile in service with the Seasprite or the AGM-65 missile and the GBU’s left over from the disbanded ACF Wing.
If the RNZAF still had capability it would be able to provide over watch in addition to its current ISR capabilities to the Army and Navy in a Chapter 5- 6 Peacekeeping Operations and Chapter 7 for Warlike operations in a semi-non permissive Air threat environment aka East Timor 99 to 04.
You hard core lefties just don’t know how close we came to an all out shoot match with the TNI and the with militia in ET. When we finally go into West Papua it could be a different story than Timor as Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC’s) and our Air Lanes of Communications (ALOC’s) will be longer than the Darwin to Dili route. For example you should’ve seen the panic when the HMNZS F421 Canterbury reported when they found TNI Navy type 209 Sub inside ET 12 mile limit not only once but twice.
I’ll would have a few more tools in the tool box than have none at all regardless what the mission is, but then again you could walk in my foot steps in having SFA equipment when you are on 2 way range or you could pay a visit to my mates grave site Pte Lenny Manning KIA while Peacekeeping in East Timor.
BTW, I was born with red underpants or goggle Frank Henry Sherman as the Locke Family along with McLagan destroy my great grandparents reputation IRT left wing politics in NZ.
I don’t think it’s the hard-core Lefties that do that but the Morons In The Middle who hold to the myth that all the world is sweetness and light and wouldn’t hurt a fly – despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Every time I think about where in the world NZ is I keep coming to the conclusion that we need at least two aircraft carriers and the battle groups to support them.
I’m even tempted to make them nuclear powered despite my opposition to nuclear power.
Gezz. I’d hate to be your fallus enemy. If not for the system we’ve got now half of you wouldn’t have even made it past child child birth. You’ve got to be pretty damaged in th read to think one person could create a better system.
Money is the one thing that doesn’t care about muh boarder or muh racist sandwich. So if you want to change the world then become rich by making better products and services and that money to change to world.
The only people who think that are Don Trump and his supporters.
Rich people are the problem and thus not the solution.
Draco mate. Your suffering from what ever the reverse of Gareth Morgan is. No ones buying what your selling. What’s more likely is the government of the day sticks to the current 1% GDP a year and $20bln over 17 years funding cycle. If you’ve got. Better idea then say it aloud. Dreaming doesn’t count.
Holy cow DTB,
Two Carrier Battle groups, shit that’s some serious coin mate and here I’m pushing a Danish/ Dutch Navy CONOP’s which would be more suited to the NZDF especially when looks at where the both of these Navies operate in the world.
As it would the Government of the Day more options and the Utility of Force especially what happened during the INTERFET deployment by the NZDF along with the possible tends within the region atm. With NZ’s economic base around an export led economy in the primary sector where 95-97% of all exports go by ship and if NZ can’t import goods it’s highly likely that it would not be able to export as well, therefore destroying its economy with a worse case picture of a break down of civil order etc.
Did you know that the NZG after the WW2 did consider operating a carrier group as the RNZN personal had a lot of corporate knowledge on carrier operations, but knock it back on cost, as they were also inclined to ditch the cruisers as well and adopt a 6 Frigate Navy with 6 Sloops, 6 Mine Warfare Ships and Support Group to IOT support the Army and Navy Patrols in the Pacific.
But who would we raise a flag too? Fiji 😀
NZ Inc is a JOKE! Do you really think you can run this country, promote its image via tourism and pro business advertising all over the globe, and think, you need NO armed forces of any kind to defend this turf?
For heaven’s sake, any reasonable person knows how the rest of the globe is being screwed up, environmentally, by war, unrest, pollution, civil war, exploitation and so forth. Hundreds of millions will become victims and refugees due to climate change, we get areas now with over not just 45 but over 50 degrees Celsius in summertime, unbearable for living humans or animals to live under.
Many will seek out refuges, and NZ Inc is a prime refuge territory, also still very fertile and relatively less densely populated, many will have their eyes on this place, to settle, to colonise and to exploit it as one last area not intensively exploited yet.
So wake up, we need every Kiwi getting prepared, a civilian kind of guerilla army is needed, every fit and willing person must be trained, equipped and armed, at least Swiss style, to prepare to protect NZ from any threat that will come.
To rely on others, whether US, China or whosoever, and to do nothing, or to hope for the best, these are NO options.
We do not need space age tech, we can arm our population by the hundreds of thousands with good, solid, basic armament, ready to go bush and to also defend the coast and more.
Stop being so deluded.
/agreed.
I am baffled by this macho desire to bolster our defences to ‘deter’ the enemy. Firstly who is the enemy? China is the only candidate. The US wouldn’t attack us under any circumstances but neither will it defend us. Too much risk for too little gain.
Russia’s threat is greatly exaggerated – population only 144 million and GDP probably less than Germany or Japan. So China it is.
Will someone please list all our tanks, heavy artillery, fighter planes and bombers, ammunition and submarines etc – it shouldn’t take long. Then do the same exercise for China. Now calculate how long it will take to use up all our ammunition, even assuming we still have any tanks etc left. I am sure that some one in the Forces has played it all out on a computer game. Would we last 2 weeks? Probably not.
WE cant defend ourselves. Dont waste money on it. Be neutral and pray.
This my abridged version my on IMAP study on how to attack NZ which is about 30 pages of information and maps plus overlays. The CONOPs is only 5 pages. Anyway here it’s is-
A direct attack on NZ is quite pointless from a military/ political POV unless the you are wanting to attack Oz as the logistics tail will long along with the amount of equipment and manpower required to mount the attack on NZ.
The Indirect attack on NZ will achieve the greatest affect IRT economy of means and effort to achieve the military and political goal of destroying NZ means to wage war or sustain it economic means in war or supporting its allies via its export of primary goods.
To achieve my endstate I will use:
Using 5 Direct Action Teams to attack-
The Hydro cracker at Marsden Pt and the unloading point or even better if there is a oil tanker alongside,
RNZAF Base Auckland main targets will be 5 and 6SQNs.
Devonport dockyard all ships alongside and if possible the drydock locks and last
Both ends of the Cook Strait cable which will knock out about 60% of power supply to the Nth lsland and degrade power supply to the whole of the Nth lsland
Submarines to attack NZ Sea Lane Of Communtions around NZ waters attacking all ships.
Laying of sea mines at all NZ ports.
Cyber warfare attacks at major infrastructure aka dams, hospitals, power supply etc.
Conduct Bio Warfare at NZ primary producers aka foot and mouth, PSA M Bovis etc.
My total footprint in the ground in NZ will be between 120 and 200 personal with between 40-50% of my TOE conducting offensive operations with the rest providing logistics support or Recon for the Direct Action Teams. For Sea operations I will need a number Ocean going fishing trawlers of mine laying, recon, force extraction vessels. Between 15- 30 Submarines depending on what mth I will attack more likely to midnight on New Years Eve for surge operations and later reducing to about 5- 10 Submarines for ongoing operations.
Case study WW 1 & 2 Axis Seapower Denial operations in NZ waters and the French Direct Action Hit on the Rainbow Warrior, but in mind we only caught the logistic support team and the DAT which escape by yacht which was scuttle some between Norfolk Island and New Caledonia where they were picked up by a French Boomer Submarine which was then detected by a fully armed RNZAF P3. Depending on who you talk too we came very close at getting them but someone or some persons refuse to give the order and it wasn’t the Military unlike what happened during the Fiji Coup.
We have plenty of sheep we can use as suicide bombers if the need be. The reality is that when a power invades another the modern method is terrorism to disrupt the invading force. So modern defence can have all the bangs and whistles but as seen by Afghanistan and Iraq, you can not defeat a nation and it be business as usual, if the civilians will not accept the rule.
Lots of mistakes made by the US for example in training and creating death squads and turning many civilian groups against them in the Middle East, as well as giving millions of people no options but to fight a civil war.
Saying that not sure if the US will even be able to understand where it went wrong as too many power interests gaining from that war and all that missing money and not wanting any repercussions about allowing torture.
The Chinese already have considerable influence in NZ via trade and our country is for sale to anybody that wants to buy a piece of us, whether the Saudis, the Indians or Canada and anybody else, and nobody says boo against Chinese lack of democracy anymore or human rights, because they have so much control in NZ.
The NZ defence forces are just here for political purposes helping other countries and individual business interests control via five eyes and buying armaments, I can’t see much use of the NZ defence force in it’s current mode to keep NZ a sovereign nation.
I’m not talking about invading NZ unless I want to attack Oz, the amount of equipment and manpower alone just to maintain my logistics train is not worth it to mount a full scale invasion on NZ. Where as the indirect attack as detailed above gives me far options, it achieves a economy of force and effort with and at the same destroying NZ from within
As you won’t be able to export your products therefore you can’t import therefore destroying economic wealth, therefore causing an economic collapse of NZ economy, therefore causing unemployment therefore leading to unrest and hopefully a total collapse of law and order/ the rule of law.
NZ is a maritime nation and a Island nation and needs to have an effective Anti Submarine Warfare, Anti Surface, and Sea Mine Counter Measures capabilities because NZ as a trading export country will be stuffed with out when the Asia Pacific becomes a two way range. That’s before we even start debating the this Neo Con/ Neo Lib economic crap that’s been Force down our throats over the last 30 odd yrs and the long term impact it has our economy and manufacturing sectors.
For defence we don’t need to identify an enemy before it happens – we just need to have the capability. In fact, who the enemy is before hand is a way to ensure that we don’t have the capability that we need and are most likely to misidentify. The people who will attack us won’t broadcast the fact before hand.
I’m pretty sure that if we did something that they didn’t like then they’d attack us. As they did to Iran, Nicaragua, Panama, Chile, Hawaii and so many other places that were also small and probably didn’t think that the US would attack them.
As far as I’m concerned, the US is probably the main contender to attack us going on history.
We could defend ourselves to a credible degree and doing so isn’t a waste*. We should be neutral but sitting around praying won’t keep us that way. We will simply be taken over by whichever super-power feels like it.
* Money is nothing and so it can’t be wasted.
“China’s behaviour in the South Pacific over the ownership of reefs they have built into military bases defies claims that their rise to power and expansion of influence is not aggressive.”
Where are those South Pacific ‘reefs’ that China is owning?
Perhaps this is being confused with those now occupied and turned into militarised islands in the South China Sea, being only near the North Pacific, not within the South Pacific at all.
But that said, it is of concern that island states such as Samoa, Tonga and Fiji take on large loans from China, putting them into high debt, to let them build roads, hospitals, airports and what else there is, Cook Islands also had them build some courts or other public admin building. This is a REAL worry.
Hey Marc do you prefer the American model of sending in troops to fight “terrorists” that you are also funding. Then installing a compliant government that represents American interests and a small section of the local community.
I prefer neither of them.
USA is an aggressive country. China has a quarter of the worlds population which it resources from Africa and the middle east. It seems only common sense they would need to protect their sea routes with bases in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean just as the USA does.
New Zealand needs to position itself so it stays out of that future war.
I think its time we bought some S400 anti aircraft/missile systems and declared ourselves neutral like Switzerland once was.
The day we have to drop a bomb on a Chinese warship is the day it all comes to an end. I submit that on such a day, it’ll be wholly irrelevant whether we have a new Poseidon – or a Cessna crop-duster.
Yeah, the same thought crossed my mind, Frank. Dropping a bomb on Chinese warship would signal the end of civilisation as we know it. So its the height of stupidity and blind obedience to the Amrrican empire.
Do we no longer have a housing crisis?
Idk. P-8As have a few tricks up her sleeves. We’ve all heard the stories of Russian warplanes spoofing US warships. Well we can do the same too you know.
Sam, ya gotta lay off that blackberry nip……..
So kiwis serving black berry nip now a days huh. Guess grandpa getting old.
Totally agree with…
“I think our first allegiance is to NZ as an independent Pacific nation with its own independent foreign policy.
That should be our touchstone value in everything we do.”
“I think we have a leader in Jacinda who could articulate this powerful vision and provide that leadership, because if we don’t make a radical departure now we are going to get sucked into the geopolitical vortex between these two and be forced to choose a side that in’t in our true national interests.”
At the end of the day, Kiwi’s should be like the hobbits of LOTR, simple but moral people, who against all odds should do every thing possible to disrupt the narrative of absolute power and control from who ever that may be. Sadly NZ now seems to be for sale to bad trade deals, and conformity, which isn’t exactly saving the planet but making everything worse.
I also don’t think China want a war and generally are peaceful but sadly as people get more power it does corrupt and with the US flapping around it is probably tempting to expand.
The US has been going wrong for a while, breaking promises and engaging in petty politics while being completely out of touch with what is going on domestically and internationally. People also voted for Trump to disrupt the US machine going in the wrong direction, and hopefully they can find their way back to a truth within their narratives (sadly not true by the growing inequality and pollution) that America is the best country in the world to live. AKA Make America great Again. (Which to the average American is probably live in a safe, happy, country to raise their children and have a voice within that, without a stressful life, not whatever the US politicians think it means of petty wars and making everyone wary of them).
As for Russia, who knows, but not sure they really want to be a warmonger.
Helen Clark was successful because she stuck to her guns and drove a hard bargain. Since she left, the wheels have fallen off , and now her decisions are not what they used to be, aka China trade deal and Iraq war.
We need a moral PM with some steel to get NZ back to Hobbits ville aka a moral position that influences. Being erratic as NZ is, to China and US is not good, and the government needs to be a friend to both but steely neutral and for harmony in the Pacific.
In short I’m not sure any nation really wants war, but there are always people who will use that to get more power for themselves.
But with climate change and pollution there should be plenty of issues that countries can collaborate on without getting sidetracked on power plays, while immoral business practises destroys the world for the future.
The new trend of politicians should be to harmonise and solve world problems and leave domestic politics to the countries to themselves to work through.
The US and China has the largest and second largest submarine fleets in the world, all at one point in time parked in the Pacific Ocean.
New Zealand, like Japan are island nations. During World War 2 both New Zealand and Japan ignored anti submarine warfare at a time when America and Germany where Rampling up sub production. And we ignored that trend that cost us in New Zealand hundreds of lives lost through open war on the high seas and Japan lost there way of life.
For an island nation to ignore anti submarine warfare is an operational transgression of the highest order.
Well said Sam
Comments are closed.