National hold Northcote with mutilated majority

By   /   June 9, 2018  /   27 Comments

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1362 is a lot lower than the 3000 National should have been aiming for and is proof positive that Jacinda can reach deep into National Party territory.

Who will ever know how many voters Nick Smith converted to Labour

National have held onto Northcote with the preliminary vote in

Northcote – Preliminary Count

Electorate No. 34 – 33 of 33 results counted

VOTES COUNTED:
19,900
100.0%
LEADING CANDIDATE:
BIDOIS, Dan
10,147
2nd CANDIDATE:
HALBERT, Shanan
8,785
CURRENT MARGIN:
1,362
Candidates Party Votes
BIDOIS, Dan
NAT
10147
HALBERT, Shanan
LAB
8785
JAUNG, Rebekah
GP
579
BERRY, Stephen
ACT
157
KOLONI, Kym
IND
95
LYE, Jeff
ALCP
76
CHEEL, Tricia
NZDSC
30
WALSH, Liam
NAP
5
26
19,900

 

Specials will be in by the 20th with final results.

With National at 45% in Polls, anything less than 3000 majority hurts Bridges.

If Labour get within 2000 it will be considered a positive endorsement of Jacinda.

If Labour get within 500 there will be gasps and an immediate blame game.

National vote: 50.99 (-1.28) Labour vote: 44.15 (+8.9)

19 000 voted in Northcote by-election, 37 100 voted in last years general election – an equivalent majority would be half Coleman’s majority, that would be 2 683, National got just over 1300 – that’s a poor reflection on Simon Bridges.

1362 is a lot lower than the 3000 National should have been aiming for and is proof positive that Jacinda can reach deep into National Party territory.

Shanan was an excellent candidate, he is a future MP for Labour. A genuine talent and inclusive enough to include Alan Duff!

Bidois came across as fake and insincere. He made such of his time as a butcher and seems creepy enough to have retained the skill purely for hobby home kills. He gives economists a bad name.

The Green candidate Rebekah Jaung was proof that the best candidate, which she undoubtedly was, doesn’t win. Why she was ranked so low on the Green Party list is anyone’s guess. Can someone inside that Party just try a bit harder?

Please?

The weirdo One Nation fanatic only just beat the Cannabis candidate.

As it should be.

The best thing about the entire by-election was Simon Wilson’s incredibly insightful and clever coverage.  His columns were easily the best and proof that fine political journalism is actually possible still in NZ.

 

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27 Comments

  1. Marc says:

    Would it make that much of a difference, people continue to vote for their suburban commuter by car lifestyles, that is what MOST up there on the Shore do, and the low turnout for the Greens shows that even the tame Greens do not get their compromised, moderate message through.

    And this is one of the younger electorates, I heard.

    If there was truly ‘progressive’ thinking, the Greens should have got many more votes, and Labour should have taken the seat with a landslide, especially with Jacinda touring around the electorate in recent days.

    It is a true disappointment, and even if Halberg had won, it would only have been a confirmation for the status quo, giving Jacinda a bit of encouragement to carry on.

    People continue to have their heads deep in the sand, that is in most of NZ Inc, they do not really get it, that their lifestyles of US American style consumerism will be doomed some time soon.

    But they will carry on, until the oceans are filled with plastic rather than fish.

  2. Red Buzzard says:

    The Greens should have been out there campaigning for Labour

    • cleangreen says:

      I agree Greens should have backed labiour as we are fighting the evil “National plundering party.”

      If greens have of stood for labour then National may well have lost the election as more may have actually voted for labour also.
      Green vote added to labour alone weould have made the final vote within lass than 600 from National so it was a very close election, that will send shivers down any hardened Nat the shivers alright.

      We hope the greens wake up next time.

    • Michal says:

      No no they should not have! The Greens will be wiped out of parliament if they start doing this.

  3. Christine says:

    The Green Candidate was very good and I’m sorry she didn’t do better.

    Alan Duff’s behaviour was boorish, inexcusable and of no help whatsoever to Labour.

    A few years ago I talked with a psychologist about the disservice Duff has done abused NZ women, with his portrayal of Beth (?) in Once Were Warriors. She was feisty and lippy and she fought back, “asking for it.”

    The reality for women in abusive relationships, is that apart, I guess for drinkers and druggies, women render themselves invisible, stay silent, walk on eggshells, and live an abnormally repressed deprived life focused on two things, keeping the peace, and protecting the children; hide it all from outsiders because of the shame, and the queries of “What did she do to make him behave that way?”

    The psychologist agreed and said so many women have said that to her.

    Several times I have nearly written to Duff about it, assuming, because he is a writer, that dialogue was possible. I’m glad now that I didn’t because his behaviour to the Spinoff staffer suggested that he’d stepped out of one of his own books and is not the nicest of chappies.

  4. Tamati Tautuhi says:

    National did better than I thought.

    • LeGrandeFromage says:

      51% with a new candidate… in a by-election. They must be gutted.

      • Andrew says:

        Exactly right.

        Bidois is an unknown so it’s hardly surprising National’s majority fell.

        The total vote count for all parties was about the same as the number of people who voted just for Coleman last time around.

        • Pete says:

          Next time around Bidois will be a sitting MP while Halbert will be a two-time loser in the seat. Will the voters there ever want him in sufficient numbers? Quite simply something dramatic has to happen for him to get in. If there was ever a chance this was it with the only stone cold certainty being that the voting numbers would be low.

          The voters we hoped would vote simply did not care.

  5. Wensleydale says:

    The best thing about this whole by-election was the look on Nick Smith’s face as he was forced to feign enthusiasm while half-heartedly waving placards at intersections. He looked like a man being spoon-fed maggots. I haven’t laughed so hard in years.

  6. XRAY says:

    When ever and why did the National Party think Nick Smith would ever be a draw card? How???

    • Andrea says:

      He’s sweeter than Paula and less pointy than Judith.

      And he may be doing penance for something. You know what they’re like.

  7. Michael says:

    Been meaning to contribute for a while.

    I assume you’re trying to see if this poll shows an endorsement for the Labour / NZ First / Greens government or National, one year on from the election?

    Comparing to what occurred less than 12 months ago in the same electorate, National’s vote of 51% was down by 1%, while Labour went up 9%. Strong for Labour. The jump in Labour’s support was however closely matched by the declines in support for NZ First and Greens combined (8%).

    Overall I would have thought this would suggest that this byelection reflected what the polls are saying – Labour’s support has increased, largely through reduced support for its Government partners, while National’s support has stayed around the same levels. To conclude that “Jacinda can reach deep into National Party territory” when the National vote was 51% and moved down only 1% with a new candidate, seems illogical unless you can elaborate?

    Agree Shanan was an excellent candidate. References to Bidois as creepy, fake insincere, giving economists a bad name etc are purely personal and a waste of time.

  8. Get right says:

    Totally incorrect political analysis. The candidate vote for national dropped from 52% to 51%.

    You do not understand what you are talking about. Margin is relative to turnout

  9. Mike the Lefty says:

    I wonder how long Bidois will last before he catches the National Party oppositionitis plague and throws in the towel. National think they are born to govern and opposition status is a VERY bitter pill to swallow.

  10. The Veteran says:

    Spin it whatever which way folks. National won, Labour lost. Bidois took 50.98% of the candidate vote which compares well with the 51.5% scored by Coleman just eight months ago. You add into the equation the conventional wisdom that a long term sitting MP can expect to garner up to an additional 5% as their personal vote and Bidois did very well.

    He was helped of course by the scandal around the Labour candidate ‘doctoring’ his c.v.

    Yes Labour upped their vote by the simple measure of cannibalizing the votes of their CoL partners with the Greens dropping from 6.6% to just 2.9% and NZF running their candidate at the General Election as an independent and polling less than 100 votes. Both lost their deposits.

    You add to that Labour’s attempted gerrymandering of the vote by heaving Labour supporters on the Maori Roll switch to the General Roll all orchestrated by cabinet minister Jackson.

    28 months out from 2020 is a long time but Labour has to be worried about its coalition partners. We should not dismiss outright the possibility that the next election will see a return to a two party parliament and on current polling it won’t be your mob on the treasury benches as St Jacinda is increasingly revealed as having feet of clay.

    • Tamati Tautuhi says:

      NZF should get some traction over the next couple of years and capture a good share of the National Party vote picking NZF 10% at 2020 Election ?

  11. Archonblatter says:

    Pity the Greens and Labour didn’t bother to highlight the enormous boulders dumped all along Milford beach to protect jitterey home owners in the front stalls from being battered by storms and rising tides. Especially the huge crater dug half way down the beach to accomodate tons of said boulders as base reinforcement for a massive sea wall to protect a yet to be built house. Who in the Auckland council issued a permit for this ongoing beach desecration which is already creating what is known as a wet beach, i.e. one that is waterlogged.
    Neither party has investigated or pointed to the vast landslip behind Birkenhead shops only a few feet away from apartments built by Waide Construction and obviously caused by massive earth works immediately next door to landfill which had been known for twenty years to be unstable. Who issued a permit for these apartments?
    As an anecdotal aside, my sister three weeks or so after council engineers maintained that the Birkenhead slip had been caused by heavy rainfall, phoned the Council because her house was shaking badly as was the house of at least one other neighbour. A council engineer assured her that there were no slips on her property but that the earthworks from another apartment build further up her road was causing the shaking not an earthquake or earth slipping. He emphasised that the effects of such earth works could travel miles.
    Drawing attention to the Milford Beach and Birkenhead damage would have attracted the attention of many residents rather than Anne Hartley’s fatuous nonsense about fixing traffic and housing shortages and could have swung the election.

    https://mkt.pacifecon.co.nz/files/507984ea619076a

  12. Gary says:

    Dream on Martin, its a by election, it shows absolutely nothing.

  13. JustMe says:

    In their feeble attempt at media manipulation especially as it has been proven the NZ National Party has the main stream NZ media services in its pocket and control I am sure whatever publicity given to the Northcote by-election result will be as per usual biased towards National and its MPs.
    However lets consider this reality. In the lead up to the last general election Jonathan Coleman happily and without an ounce of remorse on his part allowed the mis-spending of many millions of NZ taxpayers money spent on HIS advertising banners etc despite the probability the guy was courting a private company for employment once the government of the day(the Labour, NZ First, Greens)became an obvious fact.
    Infact it’s likely Coleman was courting the private employer whilst still campaigning as an MP for Northcote prior to last years’ general election.For him to obtain that job in the private sector was probably without a doubt something that was in negotiation for many, many months. And so whomever paid him the best pay and perks of the job was probably either the Devil or the Deep Blue(National Party)sea.
    To date it does reflect badly back upon National when an electorate they considered to be “True Blue” has such a reduced number of voters that actually voted for them.
    But lets also look back upon the typical mentality of Kiwi apathy. Exactly how many of the population of Northcote are able to vote but didn’t bother to do so? We will not know but right now the reality of events to date is a small number of the population of that electorate voted and it’s obvious a considerable number of those voters voted more so for Labour than in the past. Which reflect badly upon National and its former Minister of Health who visited the mould ridden buildings of Middlemore Hospital in South Auckland as part of his portfolio but did nothing for South Auckland and probably overall nothing positive for the Northcote electorate.
    Suddenly a young puppy who has never lived in Northcote crops up as the National Party MP. Much like John Key who has never lived in Kumeu ends up as its MP.
    How long will Bidois last as MP for Northcote is anyones and everyones guess. He claims to be the voice of Norhcote but once he is relegated, due to his junior status and age, to the back-bench of the debating chamber etc will he remain the “Voice of Northcote” or just yet another self-serving, photo opportunity seeking National MP who idolisises a former National MP with a track record of pony-tail pulling?