There was one permutation of the Northcote by-election which seemed highly unlikely but possibly incredibly disruptive.
All perceived wisdom is that National will romp home, but what would happen if the entry of the Green Party nominee was enough to split the progressive vote and rob Labour of the win?
Wouldn’t happen right?
Or would it?
The latest internal polling by Labour astoundingly suggests that Labour could beat National in Northcote!
I’ve just seen the latest polling for the Northcote by-election and it’s much closer than we thought.
Going into this race we knew we were underdogs – and, if I’m honest, it looked like we had a huge mountain to climb to even get close given National’s huge majority.
But the latest polling we received yesterday reveals there are just a few points in it. There is a chance Labour could do well on June 9.
Labour have just sent this out to their Northcote support team, and if true could be one of the biggest upsets in a safe National electorate since Winston took Northland!
The danger here however is if the Greens split the vote and just rob Labour at the end. I thought the Greens running in this by-election was a stupid idea and would cost the Greens a fortune. If the internal poll is really this close, the Green Leadership have to consider standing their candidate down or if they can’t get off the ballot forms, then sending out a clear message to their supporters to vote for the Labour candidate.
If Labour can manage to pull off a coup like this, it will be a devastating blow to the National Party, but if the Greens cost them the by-election, it will damage the Government.
the people have had enough of the nationals party. they had no backbone and no idea and were only concerned with the main chance for themselves
the greens have a long history of doing just this self-face-fuck..for the left..
they still don’t seem to comprehend that an essential ingredient in mmp is accomodation with other parties that are on your side..
part of that long history is how election after election they gifted one of their worst enemies..dunne…they gifted him his seat..
(walks to side of room – starts banging head on wall..).
Phil, how are you me ole’ mate. Long time, no see nor read.
good thanks nick….me and a couple of re-homed pig-dogs are living in a version of rural-bliss..you/yours all good..?
Why don’t they release the poll numbers?
Greens are a DEAD party, used to vote for them, under SHAW, big fail and stuff up, a loser party now.
As a past green Party voter I am hopeful the green Party will now stop suopporting the National Party and stand with all of us and fight the National Party as they are now embarking on a systematic sabotage of our parliamentary system as they engage in a daily attempt of “civil disabedience” to bring down the Coalition Government, as we saw in parliament yesterday.
National will stop at nothing now to get back into Government so I dont want anyone helping them.
+100 CLEANGREEN
I don’t recall the Greens ever supporting the National Party. They are at the totally other end of the political spectrum to National, with Labour in between.
I agree with your proposal Martyn;
The Greens should do this also as you suggested as i recall National had done this before in Aucklland themselves.
“Green Party consider – withdrawing their candidate or sending out a clear message to their supporters to vote for the Labour candidate.”
What the Greens should have done is campaigned for the Labour candidate, while promoting themselves. They could have doorknocked, attended the public meetings, put out pamphlets and done all the usual campaign stuff, but in a two pronged way.
For example, they could have a pamphlet saying ‘The Green party supports Shanan Halbert in this by-election, however these are the reasons you should vote for the Green party in general elections ….’
In short, the Greens needed to take a more nuanced approach that delivered for themselves and for their major partner in Government.
all excellent suggestions..
and mmp-politics 101..?..you’d think..?
heh, for once TRP and I agree on something!
as a character in “13 Reasons” S02 says when asked what he is seeking–“the violent overthrow of everything”–which is as nonsensical as the Greens contesting electorates like this
I’m sure we agree on other things, too, TM!
When I wrote the comment above, I was reminded of the discussion in the party I was a member of in 1984. The decision was pretty much as I suggest for the Greens; back Labour to get rid of Muldoon, but promote the party’s independent line.
Shame we didn’t look more closely at the economic direction Douglas was on, however the social gains (nuclear free, homosexual law reform etc.) kinda blinded us to that.
Yes that is what they should have done – its still not too late for them to promote Shanan
How Bent can the Greens Bend ?
Quite apart from thinking they have a right to condone Fraudulent Politicians both within and without their ranks, the Greens think they are the Fons et Origo of every bit of Wisdom known on this planet or any other.
In a word – they are sickening. They will take bribes from anyone. They achieve next nothing. They shit on their friends. And by extension, on their families and the good people of Aotearoa.
They are the reason that First past the Post will return to Democracy for they have fouled decency and replaced it with childish whimsy.
Nobody but nobody respects them. They swing around like a wayward demolition Ball – destroying anything they can do to get notice. Shame shame shame.
Let them hide in their shame.
do you need a cuppa tea and a wee lie down there..?..tokoroa-person..
you seem a tad over-wrought – bordering on apoplectic..
your description of their toilet-habits is very picturesque/evocative..
Translation: the Greens should just bugger off with principles and just agree with the government on anything. After all, why should they act like a real party instead of the useful idiots Bradbury wants them to be?!
see the above reply to r cartland – perhaps you might like to also chip in..?
A’ight, since you asked so nicely – You and Martyn alike, present a picture of the left as mewling idiots, who don’t use the tactics on offer to grab power in the most streamlined and effective way possible. You point out (correctly, in this part) that the Left’s desire to stick to principles and stand up to make their voice heard often directly plays into the plans of the right, and helps them to maintain power.
What this thesis ignores, however, is that the whole point of the exercise is. If the only point, the only aim, is to get a red label on the government, then yes, the Greens should capitulate and just be the ‘ACT’ of the left – make deals to ensure maximum representation of the Left-Wing vote. If the point is to make a better world, then challenging Labour, and forcing Labour to do the right thing is more important. Why is nobody calling for Labour to make an offer to the Greens, give them a policy in return for the Greens pulling out of the race?
‘desire to stick to principles’..?…i wouldn’t attribute those high motives to serially shooting self in foot..(c.f..dunne..)..
and yes..of course the greens must ‘ make deals to ensure maximum representation of the Left-Wing vote’..why the f. are they there otherwise..?
serially gifting dunne his seat was the correct thing to do..was it..?
it’s called mmp..it’s way past bloody time the greens learnt how to operate effectively in it..(and yes..labour also needs some lessons..but that is more the neoliberal-incrementalism that is rife in that party..that is what they have to de-learn..)
and there are a few things i would like ‘to call on labour’ to hurry up and bloody well do….that is way down the list..
This would require an act of sane intelligence by the Greens leadership which has been sadly lacking since Shaw became leader. They cant even support a binding referendum on cannabis even though all the polls point to an easy win.
Do you expect the greens to refrain from running a candidate in 2020 as well? Really? If they can’t win now without the greens absenting themselves, how long do you expect Labour to hold on to the seat anyway, even if they win this bye election? Is it worth acting “the bully” just to hold the seat for a couple of years? After all Winston didn’t manage to hold Northland.
yes. refrain until we have a sensible stv to match our mmp. party vote advertising just does not need a candidate for people to self-defeatingly tick.
[…] The Northcote by-election looks like it is going down to the wire. […]
By-elections are still fought under FPP. That means its a 2 horse race. Which means a Green candidacy is a spoiler for the Left.
Now the question is, why don’t the Greens realise this?
I probably wouldn’t have stood a candidate if I was in the Green Party caucus but at the end of the day, they are all separate parties and if Labour wants to win the electorate, then its candidate needs to get more votes than any of the other parties’ candidates. Same rules apply to National.
do you need someone to explain the concept/mechanics of vote-splitting to you..?
Phillip mate. It’s a bye-election. Not a general election. Tactics are as useful as folding like a wet towel. Northcote has been solid blue for the last 10 yrs. Voting for National is a no-go. Their policies spread stupidity and fear far and wide in the country, their policies on education and healthcare is bad enough that nearly anything would be better, the amount of cronyism is simply something one needs to see with their own eye. I could cite the example the humble open pit miner, who during the course of 2 years turned from a mildly successful person of modest wealth into the last surviving employee of a failed underground mining operation. Because he has loyal blue friends of the prime minister. Meanwhile a former loyal friend, fattened on the government tit had a very public falling out and miraculously the sector start to lose money. Tax money is spent by one overdriving reasoning: “How can we give the most to our friends?” For example the investor VISA for a random set of NZ tech companies that are set up and wined and dined on an invitation only. The chances of a minor party getting second place is zero. That’s tactics for you.
i agree ‘it’s only a bye-election’..but to me it is symptomatic/a continuation of a disasterous tactic for all concerned..except the right..and toadies like dunne…
and it shows them as having learnt little..
(who are the fucken clowns who ‘advise’ them..?..who tell them to do this bullshit..
i remember the arguments from way back….the supporters being candidates bent on self-promotion..and pushing the canard that politics these days is just like the town-hall version of politicking/campaigning from yesterday..
saying ‘the candidate will get a chance to speak at all the public meetings’..
now this is bullshit-on-a-stick..the only people at those meetings are candidates friends/family..and die-hard supporters of each party…
take them out and the hall would be empty..
i refer back to the suggestions further back up the thread from trp..on how the greens could effectively campaign without splitting the vote..(and thus ensuring the tory/dunne status-quo prevails…)
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