So what happens if Winston goes with National?
The caution valve on the property market will rupture and a spike in property speculation will insinuate once the market realise there is no domestic structural threat to the property bubble. This will hook in local investors and makes any possible global shock that much more damaging.
NZ First becomes a lightening rod for every betrayed voter and starts bleeding support.
Expect some type of backlash from America for the Government’s disturbing connections with Chinese business interests.
Huge internal tensions will exist within NZ First for choosing National and it will only be a matter of time for them to blow.
Public services will face draconian privatisation in the guise of targeted welfare.
Unions will realise they have nothing to lose but total resistance and industrial action will spread and grow.
It will engage and anger youth as the obviousness of the generation war will be exposed and repeatedly highlighted for 3 years.
Total full stop on any and all progressive social policy from medical cannabis to meaningful abortion reform.
A ratcheting up of Police power, expect armed Police.
More prisons. Lots more prisons.
The Left will be thrown into fits of rage and protests will get far more aggressive.
In short, if National lead the next Government, they will be the embodiment of all the worst values of National with all the social conservatism of an unrestrained NZ First that will face a furious Youth Opposition who will by 2020 be a larger electoral demographic than Baby Boomers.
That’s a glass-empty-view if ever I saw one. Here’s the other perspective:
NZ First pull the handbrake on National and then in 2018 the economy tanks. The rabid right in National take over the party soon after and we have a repeat of the Shipley government. At the next election NZ First disappears and National support drops into the 20s.
While this is happening the membership of the Labour Party takes the chance to build a parallel organisation in Labour that cleans out the neoliberal dominance and installs Corbyn style policies. This in turn invigorates the electorate and we actually get a youth quake at the next election. Rodger Douglas and Ruth Richardson die in a horrific car crash and the neoliberal era is said to die with them. Sir Michael Cullen dies peacefully in his sleep and Jacinda takes the chance to get rid of the rest of her handlers from the Clarke era.
I actually think the first paragraph is a pretty good prediction, the 2nd is more wishful thinking on my part – but you never know…
Labour won’t go Corbyn style. Our Corbyns left with Jim Anderton or joined the Alliance. To get the most left wing policies possible party vote green.
NZF will NOT go with National
Buzzard, you say that like you know it for a fact? How is that? Do you know Winston’s thought processes? As someone else said here recently, if Winston does go with the Nats, will you quietly disappear, reinvent yourself, and return as a new persona, supporting the National-Act-NZF Axis of Evil??
Only time will tell, I guess.
If Winston’s slogan of “Had enough?” has any validity, then surely you must be right.
Yeah all that and more from the party of 44%.
I hope Winston is ready to rumble or failing that has a back door escape plan like the one Key used that also provides the knighthood and other hidden benefits.
As usual Labour will have one hell of a mess to clean up.
Sooner rather than later i think.
So it’ll be business as usual (2008- 2017) then.
A race to the bottom.
Expect a civil war 🙂
Nope, too busy going baah, baah, baah, where is my iphone, I need to buy on the web, to get that new fancy dress for the next party.
Marc do you personally know any of this youth demographic?
You don’t seem to hold them in any regard.
They are the ones who phoned and door knocked for Labour and the Greens.
SOME of them, SOME of them, some do care and may actually do something constructive, but many are not much enlightened, not more than their parents, I note.
And it was not just youth I referred to, with that bit of cynicism.
The urban middle class live in a huge bubble, a huge one.
Yes to all of this Martyn,
As many were drawn to Winston after he said on his elction signs “had enough” So your folllowing predictioons will probably happen then more than not.
I have faith Winston is aware of this & will go with labour.
“Public services will face draconian privatisation in the guise of targeted welfare.
Unions will realise they have nothing to lose but total resistance and industrial action will spread and grow.
It will engage and anger youth as the obviousness of the generation war will be exposed and repeatedly highlighted for 3 years.”
We expect nothing less whenever you chime in. I may as well just laugh with you this time though.
They will only get a maximum period of three years, before being chased into the wilderness for many years to come, because more people will finally realise they have screwed the country up.
The capacity constraints all over the place, the frustrations of teachers, carers, police officers, health workers, and the public sector in general will lead to the first major strikes in many years, and even the MSM will not be able to ignore that.
Massive dissatisfaction will grow, as few will be better off, and as many middle class will see the pinch. Housing will be under even worse stress, as builders simply cannot build what is needed, with immigration to continue, albeit a bit more slowly, as NZ First will put the brakes on.
Serious issues will arise within the government, and arguments between NZ First and National, whether in an agreement of coalition, or support from the cross benches.
We are most likely to have an early election, even possibly next year, and Labour will gain support, Greens may just survive again, NZ First will perhaps not make it, as many will blame Winston and his gang for many things not having moved anywhere positive.
ACT may finally vanish from the political scene as even that idiot Seymour will look even more of a dick head, he and his party of nobodies, with heaps of funding from the Gibbs family, will look like aliens from another planet, promoting policies that nobody believes in anymore. The money from the rich will go to the Nats to fight a brutal election campaign, which will be neck on neck again, this time Labour winning, and bringing us neoliberalism light, another ‘new’ version, of a repackaged same commodity in politics.
Marc do you personally know any of this youth demographic?
You don’t seem to hold them in any regard.
They are the ones who phoned and door knocked for Labour and the Greens.
See my comment further above.
I’m guessing Winston has already decided and possibly told the “winner” about his decision. Should we read anything on Steven Joyce’s ” 🙂 ” tweet? Be funny if Winston assured National they got this in the bag and he back stabs them, yells “psyche!”, and goes with Labour/Greens. Anyway, in any case, I’ve all but given up on being part (even passively, as a voter) of this country’s political shenanigans at this point. I swallowed vomit voting for Labour this time (although that is better than eating a shit like you would have to do to vote National), and likely won’t bother with the whole embarrassing charade and self-humiliation of “democracy” next time.
Yes to all of this Martyn,
As many were drawn to Winston after he said on his elction signs “had enough” So your folllowing predictioons will probably happen then more than not.
I have faith Winston is aware of this & will go with labour.
“Public services will face draconian privatisation in the guise of targeted welfare.
Unions will realise they have nothing to lose but total resistance and industrial action will spread and grow.
It will engage and anger youth as the obviousness of the generation war will be exposed and repeatedly highlighted for 3 years.”
It would be certain death for NZF that is regretable and may result in civil actions.
Labour may gain and the greens will stay in the doldrums.
SORRY to disabuse you Cleagreebut the one thing that will not happen is Peters backing Labour.
Why? They will NEVER agree to him being Prime Minister . And I am sure that is in the mix even if only for a year. He is past but this is his last hurrah…. and it is a small price for the Nats to pay, why would they not humour him?
For Labour it would be electoral suiicide and completely tarnish Ardern. The manoeuvring and posturing of Peters over the last days is all about this and his day in the sun.
So far he is not even a footnote in NZ history!
RMJRMJ10
“The manoeuvring and posturing of Peters over the last days…”
What did you expect him to do over the last days? Did you expect everything to be done and dusted in a couple of days? Did you expect the media to be sensible and leave him/them to it or go into krazymode? Has he made himself into a ‘media phenomenon’ or has mental media done that?
“The Greens made me do it”
“Bwa, Ha ha ha”
Winston Peters announces his coalition with National.
It means I’ll be able to sell my house to ‘the Chinese’. And then act puzzled when despite all the money I’ve made, I can’t seem to afford a new one.
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