So what happens if Winston goes with National?
The caution valve on the property market will rupture and a spike in property speculation will insinuate once the market realise there is no domestic structural threat to the property bubble. This will hook in local investors and makes any possible global shock that much more damaging.
NZ First becomes a lightening rod for every betrayed voter and starts bleeding support.
Expect some type of backlash from America for the Government’s disturbing connections with Chinese business interests.
Huge internal tensions will exist within NZ First for choosing National and it will only be a matter of time for them to blow.
Public services will face draconian privatisation in the guise of targeted welfare.
Unions will realise they have nothing to lose but total resistance and industrial action will spread and grow.
It will engage and anger youth as the obviousness of the generation war will be exposed and repeatedly highlighted for 3 years.
Total full stop on any and all progressive social policy from medical cannabis to meaningful abortion reform.
A ratcheting up of Police power, expect armed Police.
More prisons. Lots more prisons.
The Left will be thrown into fits of rage and protests will get far more aggressive.
In short, if National lead the next Government, they will be the embodiment of all the worst values of National with all the social conservatism of an unrestrained NZ First that will face a furious Youth Opposition who will by 2020 be a larger electoral demographic than Baby Boomers.