BOOM – TV3 Poll destroys Labour Hopes

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
93
7

What happens when the Left cannibalises itself?

This

And suddenly the threat of National returning to power is alive.

What an election!

Chris Trotter’s comments this morning that the Left have to bring over new voters rather than eat each others support base are perfectly timed.

Best case scenario is that this is a rogue poll, worst case scenario the Greens and NZ First collapse has helped Labour but strangled off a change of Government.

Could National really be 47.3%?

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

After the civil rights erosion, budget lies and suicide insensitivity – if National are really on 47.3% what does that say about us as a country?

This is a nail biting election.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

93 COMMENTS

  1. Martyn your explosive and sensational headline does nobody any favours. Labour hopes are far from destroyed any you should not put that idea into people’s minds.

    • Yes Martyn you are completely correct this was what I have been saying all along.

      Unity between the opposition Parties mate is the only way that will get us there.

      I was elated when in 2015 I saw labour, Greens and NZ First get together around a dinner table in a TV debate to settle differences and after that ‘meeting of the minds’ the headlines were “A government in waiting” as they all settled their scores.

      Now we know that all the backbiting between these three parties goind on now is unsettling the whole voter base.

      So the three parties now need to hold another meeting again and work out their differences, as time is short and solidarity will save the day now not this divisiveness.

      “United we stand divided we fall”

    • I sent indeed this. Martyn, you should know better than to create such emotive headlines. You are not Paddy Gower. Please operate with a more circumspect approach more becoming of your intelligence.

    • Yes and NO, we need to face the challenge, 11 days time are left to share what matters, and convince people we may know, family, friends, work mates, involve them, and point to stories like this, as that shows, we NEED a change from this neoliberal, laissez faire BS madness:
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/houses/96724526/who-owns-new-zealand-now-new-doco-tackles-our-housing-crisis

      I saw that report by Bryan Bruce on TV3 tonight, it tells it clearly, and shows the alternatives we can have, but National will not go there, they are hooked to immigration, real estate bubble economics, do not want to upset the Chinese and others, who have a hold on our affairs now.

      Something needs to happen now, and the ones that sit on land and real estate, that is investors, speculators, land bankers, they must be told, hey, enough is enough, pay your share, do your share, this country does not only belong to you.

      I hope that film will be available on On Demand or You Tube soon, it is a MUST watch.

    • Given that the polls have a margin of error of 3%, and National have gone 4%, Paddy Gower’s could have led with “another poll shows the same as before” – if the previous poll has a margin of error of 3%, and this one, there’s nothing in these figures. But of course he couldn’t help himself with the sensationalism. If anything this is just another reason why we need better public broadcasting – and people like Nate Silver doing for NZ polls what he did for the US.

    • Herald Digi was the most accurate at the last election; Reid – the NewsHub one – was the worst. This is calculated on average variance between each pollster’s final poll result for each party and each party’s actual vote. Reid takes 25% of its respondents from an internet panel, which is not a random make-up. Could explain why their poll performed the worst at the 2014 election. But you wont see the mainstream media publish such salient details.
      OneNews Colmar – landline phones only, random dialing, 50% sample taken on a Sunday.
      Roy Morgan – mix of landline and mobile phone interviews, random but generally a smaller sample of 800 (the other two go for 1000).

      The last three poll average has the Nats slightly head of Labour, but the Lab-Green bloc nearly 4% ahead.

  3. This poll looks like it has been assembled by Steven Joyce’s handiwork!!!!

    He has screwed up his mathematics figures before right?
    Call this poll “the Sjoyce poll”

  4. Voting has started then polling should stop,this election has been turned into a soap opera and the MSM are loving the ratings..
    Turns me off big time.

    • I agree. Polling should stop once voting has started. It makes a mockery of the rules around the official voting day. And the media, especially that Gower, are treating the whole bloody election like a Masterchef contest without the food.

  5. I don’t think Labour’s hopes have been destroyed at all.

    Something doesn’t ring true here, considering the One Colmar Brunton poll was only 5 days ago. So how is it possible for the numbers to change so quickly in such a short space of time, considering as far as I can make out Labour has been doing everything right, while Natz, courtesy of Joyce, O’Connor, Bennett et al has been making a right arse of itself?

    I’m at a complete loss over this one. A rogue poll perhaps?

    • Agreed , MARY_A , how the heck can there be so much variance in just 5 days or so?

      We all know the polls skip around a bit and some give higher / lower %’s than others ,… but this is ridiculous !!!

      • Answer WK, It is a rigged poll as we have had enquirers to all pollsters.

        And they advise they cannot confirm their accuracy of correct polled selection, is a true accurate reflection of the voters intent.

        So there is no way to find whether it was a rigged poll!!!

  6. Mediaworks.

    The same company that Steven Joyce used to run.
    The same company that there National govt bailed out.
    The same company that kicked John Campbell of air.

    Hmmm do I trust their poll? Just like an 11bn hole, no I do not.

    Now, as for the fact Labour announced new competition to three and tvnz today, I think there is some extra incentive to put out a fake poll to try and prevent Labour from getting in.

    • ‘ The same company that Steven Joyce used to run.
      The same company that there National govt bailed out.
      The same company that kicked John Campbell of air ‘

      I think you might just have found the Rat that MARY_A was smelling …

      A great big Rat and its first name is Dirty and its second name is Politics…

      You just never know these days…. with a sycophantic media with an axe to grind…

    • Great points Dougal

      Yes it is designed to send doubts also to labour voters and the poll rise and at the same time stumble all support partners as well.

      • Well, in this unenlightened modern age, nobody seems to realise that all these pollsters are private companies, run by right-wing directors elected by right-wing shareholders. Why would they not carefully favour their ilk?
        As do our privatised media.

  7. “After the civil rights erosion, budget lies and suicide insensitivity – if National are really on 47.3% what does that say about us as a country?”

    I don’t know but it would certainly not be a country I could continue to live in. If 47.3% of the vote believe record suicide, homelessness and poverty is to be rejoiced as well as dirty politics and a PM who’s standards are so low that lying to the public of N.Z. is an accepted practice. then those voters can also be tagged as criminals.

  8. I just listened to bleak old Kath Ryan warbling on re joyce re 11 bil’ Labour budget hole that never existed.
    There’s your answer. All bought and paid for MSM, such as it is.

      • It’s my personal view that the last election was rigged.
        This one’s shaping up to be no different.
        A possible scenario.
        I read an article in The Guardian about what will happen as the planet heats up. Climaxing in 30 to 50 years which will see mass warm blooded animal die offs. Including humans.
        We mammals will heat faster than we can cool off. As shown in an experiment called the wet bulb test. Millions of people across South East Asia etc will be forced to go to cooler climates just to live another day.
        The USA will be partiularly hard hit.
        Is that where we come in. Are we being groomed for a take over?
        If so, it certainly won’t be by invading hoards. They’ll never get even vaguely close. It’ll be by the Super Rich fleeing their well shat in nests.

        Are we going to lose our country at the point of a gun on a drone or are we going to lose our country after much polite head fuckery?

        Either way, as things get down and fruity, we’re here. In Paradise. But for how long?

    • Kath Ryan is a National mole too she sounded like..
      She was yesterday attempting to rewind the negativity around the sinking National figures in the polls so she knew something was coming.

  9. Word has it, it’s a landline poll, National centric questionss that reeks like it’s been made to order.

    It is so widely at odds with all other trends, at a time when Nationals campaign had been awful.

    And it’s a Mediaworks/Gower production.

  10. Yes, that was going to happen. Believing in the MSM to have fallen for Jacinda’s charm, and to give her a free ride to become PM, that is totally naive. The MSM swim and dance with any person who has appeal, whether briefly or for longer. They did it with John Key, no matter his lies and cunning deceit, they do it with others, but once there are serious challenges that question whether a person deserves appeal and support, the MSM will drop any person, and even destroy them.

    So it is with the polls, they go up and down, and once Crosby and Textor, the revived Zombie Joyce and others are tasked with their crusade to destroy and crucify the competitor, the nasty job will be completed.

    Believing in the sincerity, kindness and empathy of voters, to vote for a ‘better New Zealand’ (“Let’s do this”), and to give up their consumerism, their competition for jobs, houses, spaces on the road, and privileges, that is naive to the extreme.

    I see and hear it every day, under the surface, New Zealand and many New Zealander are not the kind and socially caring lot anymore, too many are plain nasty now, after decades of conditioning to live the law of the jungle, under ruthless capitalism. They are the ones who keep voting Nats, with determination, and some vote ACT, some others may go NZ First, but only few. The caring ones, the desperate and poor ones, they are not having enough in numbers to vote Labour Green in as it stands.

    Real change will not be allowed, without a real fight, a real fight, and for that the gloves will have to come off.

    ‘Election 2017 Live: Nats surge back in surprise poll’:

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/12/47406/election-2017-live-ardern-rules-out-inheritance-tax-challenged-on-trade

  12. You really would have to look at all the reid research polls this time and how they worked in previous elections to really understand this I think.

    • The final TV3 Reid Research poll in 2014 actually understated the Nats vote by 2.5% and got the Labour vote very close to correct. It had Nats at 44.5% (election 47.04) and Labour at 25.6% (election 25.13). It was surveyed up to about 5 days before the election. Their poll before that , surveyed up to about a fortnight before the 2014 election (probably the equivalent 2014 poll to this latest one), got both parties remarkably close to the actual result, Nats 46.7 (election 47.04) Labour 26.1 (election 25.13).

      If we look at that (admittedly small) sample of the TV3/Reid’s quite good performance just before the least election it gives the left no comfort at all to take from this latest poll.

      No time for complacency.

  13. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were very selective in their catchment pool for soliciting responses which matched their expectations/headlines. I’m more excited by the huge turnout of early voters; 40k yesterday, more than the first four days of early voting last eluection.

  14. Well I am still voting Green, we need them in there with Labour to counteract the vestiges of neoliberalism. This has been a dirty lie-ridden National campaign from a destructive National government. This latest poll may well be a glitch, I hope so.

    National’s sudden belated acknowledgement of huge and heartbreaking problems is as bad as their previously ignoring them; it is too much to hope that they will actually do anything to ameliorate the misery that they have created. Does anyone believe that they give a damn about climate change, eh ? The environment ? Dead kids ? Do leopards change their spots ? This is the Hit & Run bunch, and this time we need to send them running.

  15. Let’s pre-suppose that this one, single poll is an accurate reflection that a sizeable chunk of the voting public have done a 180-degree somersault…

    Let’s pre-suppose that the Greens really are on 4.9%…

    There are several thousand votes from expats New Zealanders living in the UK, US, Europe, Australia, etc, who are entitled to vote.

    Many of them tend to vote Green, as Special Votes.

    In 2014, the Green vote went from 210,764 on election night to 257,359 once Special Votes were counted and factored in. The extra 47,000 votes was sufficient to send a fourteenth Green Party List candidate to Parliament.

    ref: https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/research-papers/document/00PLLawRP2015011/final-results-2014-general-election

    It ain’t over.

    • There are thousands of Maori, PI and other NZers residing in Australia with limited rights as sire john squashed them. My advise is for the Labs and Greens to tap into them now. And if we all really want change which our country desperately needs we all need to be pro-active.
      I’m going to the bronxs in Jackson street Petone this weekend (A housing NZ ghetto area where I use to live) and take anyone that isn’t registered down to vote on my car cause I can bet there are many who haven’t bothered to register and wont vote because they think the election doesn’t effect them. When I know if the gants get in they are going to knock all those blocks down and only the wealthy will be able to afford to live there. They are just waiting to get a mandate and they build for the rich hence why the land has been sitting vacant for so long. While I’m there I will tell the people this so they realise their vote does count.

  17. National couldn’t really be at 47, unless we have a truly fucked country full of masochists. And if it comes to pass that it is the case, I’m off to join the 3rd World – probably living in a shipping container somewhere at the base of the Himalayas and dealing with truly honest people, rather than pretenders, bullshit artists, celebs (IN THEIR OWN MINDS)
    Mex Kois, Graim Richisins, Dunks (albeit with your now respectable bromancer Geeee Orrrrn Spinner -your Salad Day advisory recipient – and your wonderboy who has now overshadowed you and will continue to do so), ….. geeeeeeez SO MANY others. And most of whom have an expectation of a job other than at McDonalds in future.
    Gawd. And the pain of suffering in the knowledge they’re SO SO S O much better that that bit of fluff on 3AM or Breakfast.

    Oh how my heart is now bleeding and how the tears drip from my aging eyes as I lament the demise of the 4th Estate! /sarc

    Actually, the best is yet to come, and when it does, most likely it won’t be particularly charitable to those who profess 4th estate and journalistic values, but who’re actually Whetu Fulafisi. (I use that name because its happened before) and only by dint of chance, some of those from a Dominion reading room went on to exercise their egos, whilst others watched as bystanders.

    E W !

  18. It’s either a rogue poll,or a large percentage of New Zealanders are self obsessed arse holes ,who couldn’t care less about their fellow country men.
    Very disturbing.

  20. I don’t believe that poll….from many angles it makes no sense…
    I heard Bernard Hickey on the radio just two days ago and his, admittedly smaller poll, had Labour on 45% and National on 30%….
    N.Z First is much higher than 6% as are the Greens.
    This is a ratings poll ….now The A.M Show and Radio Live can build a meme around it that will last for several days….

  21. I said on another post that this was likely to happen.
    As soon as advance voting begins, hey presto we get a poll showing National leaping ahead.
    This isn’t just a rogue poll, this is a typical TV3 right wing confected dodgy poll designed to convince floating voters that there is no appetite for change “just go back to your pipeweed people, nothing to see here..”
    National will do anything to shut down Labour, including colluding with their Mediaworks bum buddies to lie to the voters.
    I think this poll is manufactured b…s and will soon be proved so.

  22. The Nats have won its all over for labour all in the face of one telephone only poll. The swing to the left which has been building now out of an increasing feel its time for a change has just suddenly reversed? The Nats will play it for all its worth but don’t think its a runner.

  24. “Bill” over at Standard has made an excellent point – the poll didn’t reflect undecideds. So if someone wasn’t sure who to choose between Labour and Green, they weren’t counted. Nats have less undecideds because they have no other choice.

    So the LP and GP combined vote is pretty much the same as previous if you include them – the poll doesn’t so is skewed.

    Shitty reporting. That’s all .

  26. There is one thing about this poll that should be crystal-clear to Labour: destroying the Green Party by nicking their eco-policies is not a sound strategic move.

    Labour will never reach anywhere near 50% of party votes. They will always require a coalition partner. And if it’s not the Greens, that leaves Labour vulnerable to the whims and diktats of Winston Peters.

    Is that really the scenario Labour wants to deal with?

    • “The most important task, at this crucial moment in our country’s history, is for progressives of every ideological persuasion to provide both Labour and the Greens with the votes they need to take New Zealand forwards”.

    • I don’t necessary believe that one either given the vagaries of MMP.

      Watch Epsom.

      See how many Green voters waste their electorate vote on Julie Anne Genter. Nothing wrong with her, she’s great but the job is to keep ACT out. They need to be smart and vote for the National guy.

      Same thing with the Labour voters, they need to vote for the National guy for the electorate.

      i can understand why people don’t do it – it feels all kinds of wrong.

      MMP is a badly constructed polling system.

  30. Adern would help her case by spelling out tax policy. As unacceptable as it is for National to have just noticed a housing crisis, it is equally unacceptable for the major opposition party of 9 years to be referring tax questions to a committee. Winston Peters is correct; Labour needs to be clear.

  31. I am becoming concerned at what I see here. Reid Research quoted below;

    Apparently Reid research are not physically ‘inspected’ for ‘standards’ or Quality Assurance purpose? Reid say they rely on systems ‘built in’ and this is a very loose worrying term here and cannot be trusted.

    Our own 2002 registered Environmental Monitoring Company is inspected manually every year for our laboratory instruments as part of our certification process but Reid research appear to not covered under strict certification as we are?

    http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/ABOUT+US.html

    Standards

    “We work to the highest standards in every aspect of our work, from the initial brief to delivering data. Standards are ensured through quality systems ‘built-in’ throughout all stages of every assignment, rather than being ‘inspected in’.”

  32. Hi Martyn

    Your Boom call at the very least alerts us to the true nature of the real New Zealander:

    namely, a greedy “I’m alright Jack”; “don’t give a sucker and even break”; “I am not my brother’s keeper”; “only the Wealthy and the Chinese deserve education, health and opportunity”.

    Anyone else is scum to Bill English, Paula Bennett, Joyce and Collins

    BOOM! Just listen RNZ weekday panel. Smug wealthy “I’m alright Jack” “hey look at me”; “I am free of weakness”; “I have wealth”; people. It is basically like listening to dripping vomit – week in – week out.

    BOOM Let the wealthy continue to destroy this once great Southern Land.

  33. Casual perusal of MSM churn this last week or so indicates nothing that could have prompted such a dramatic reversal. If anything, the headlines for Nazional have been damaging to their campaign.
    So called rogue polls pop up from time to time. This is merely one of them.
    And the fact that it’s being used in a sensationalist way should come as no surprise.
    However, I am surprised Martyn that you’ve joined the media herd in opting to use a hysterical headline for this piece. Hoped TDB was a bit better than that.

  34. The real question is how have Labour managed to turn off the electorate? I know several former Labour voters, myself included, who won’t be voting Labour this time around. You could try talking to them, but all I hear is that those who don’t vote Labour or Green and greedy, nasty people. That’s not the way to win the hearts and minds of the people. Didn’t work for Hillary and won’t work for Jacinda. Most kiwis DO care. They just don’t believe that bumping up the taxes of hard working people is the way to solve the problem. While Labour focuses on young people and the poor, struggling families are being ignored.

    • ” but all I hear is that those who don’t vote Labour or Green and greedy, nasty people” – but at no point has Labour ever called people “greedy, nasty people”. You’ve made that up.

      You say you “won’t be voting Labour this time around”, but I doubt you’ve ever voted Labour. Your final remark ” Most kiwis DO care. They just don’t believe that bumping up the taxes of hard working people is the way to solve the problem” reveals you to be a faux-Labour supporter.

      You’re more likely a Young Nat or Act on Campus provocateur.

  35. We have a N.Z. deep state, like they do in all our “Western Democracies”.So, what do you think these powerful secret bodies will be doing to make as sure as they can that a leftish Govt. does not derail their Neo-Liberal regime in N.Z.Look at the dirty tricks the Right-wing Democratic Party played in the U.S.Look at the polls just before the U.K. election that attempted to derail Jeremy Corban.Similar tricks were tried in France during their election, and are being rolled out as we speak in Germany.This is what these Capitalist slime-balls do ! Do not pay any attention to the polls. Stop being naive!They want labour voters to give up and stay home. THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR IS FEAR ITSELF !!!

    • Bloody bang on HISTORIAN PETE !!!!!

      We are under attack by global Carpetbaggers for sure here, Bilderberg Group inspired i believe since Key and four other NZ MPs possibly Joyce and English maybe were attending their 2011/12 meeting.

      So this is pertinent now as Bilderberg have well known founding black ops operation, who are undermining small countries destabilizing them as they are doing now to NZ.

      http://www.wnd.com/2010/05/156861/

  36. In my experience TV 3 polls are usually the least accurate, and the most angled in favour of National.
    I suspect the real figures would indicate that National and Labour are within two percentage points of each other.
    This poll is probably rubbish.

    • Yes, … millions of dollars to provide a media source that is not pandering to private and political interests ,… what a breath of fresh air for this small heavily neo liberal propagandized country.

      Its one of Labour’s best initiatives yet in the preservation of our democracy…

  39. Poll’s were always Key’s favorite manipulation devices at Election time. With Joyce driving Nationals Campaign, you can make a safe bet that the polls are well n truly fixed… Rupert Murdoch is still alive and well & on speed dial… The Polls are the very best false flag indicators. They spill blood in the water that attract the sharks…

    • Well done Angel,

      You have it correctly spelled out there.

      Joyce is as crooked as a two bob watch, pure evil he is.

      He cant fool all of the people all of the time and now he is laying smoke screens everywhere to cover his $11 billion hoe hoping we will stumble into it.

      • It was no coincidence that Stephen Joyce was once known under Keys administration as the ‘ minister of everything’… I’ll always remember Marcus Lush joking with him about it in an interview…

        But there he was ,… the go to man for everything, working behind the scenes tirelessly as ‘ Mr Fixit ‘ . Nationals ‘ enforcer’ .

        But Winston Peters put him firmly in his place in taking Northland ,… and he wont have forgotten that.

        When National loses this election ,… it will more than probably be the last we see of ‘Herr’ Joyce the propaganda man.

  40. Well done Angel,

    You have it correctly spelled out there.

    Joyce is as crooked as a two bob watch, pure evil he is.

    He cant fool all of the people all of the time and now he is laying smoke screens everywhere to cover his $11 billion hoe hoping we will stumble into it.

  41. What’s it going to take to get the 550,000 in extreme hardship to actually vote??? That is one of the issues, Labour and Greens keep talking about them but it is not a big enough group and they have so many advocates wooing them from Mana, Maori, Labour, TOP and Greens.

    Meanwhile those that are not in extreme poverty need to be wooed, Labour need to think more like Helen Clark, middle NZ, middle NZ, middle NZ. Jacinda rose in the polls because she looks classic middle NZ.

    National and their media cronies and business roundtable fight for their lives and fight dirty, none of that should be unexpected.

    Just read the listener editorial about how great NZ economy is. No mention of debt levels or real reporting. You would think we live in utopia compared to the rest of the world judging from the MSM. And actually in many ways many in NZ do.

    Labour need to support and reassure the middle to win. Less about taxes, more about benefits like a real education for kids (not just tertiary), real health care, a stop to pollution and a real future for all.

    Greens need to get all their advocates out like Greenpeace, forest and bird, Jeanette Fitzsimons, Sue Kegley, make peace with all the people who have left the party, and say, vote or else we will not survive.

    The left are too complacent they need to get real, stop going off on tangents and actually know who they need to get voting, stop targeting voter groups to tax that they think don’t matter because they are rich and instead talk about benefits and the state of our country under National like full hospitals, rising pollution and deforestation. Do Kiwis want that to continue and with more asset sales and more migration under National and less services and with the 9 new taxes National have bought in ???

  42. The other thing to remember is that the poll is based on land lines. Seriously how many people own a land line these days??? Not to mention significant Green support comes from overseas voters not polled.

  45. Jacinda fight them back by asking these questions we all need to know before we vote too.

    Jacinda – How to find national’s weakness and use this to balance the tax questions they are using against Labour
    From NZ supporters of Jacinda.
    13th September 2017.
    For labour to ask PM.
    First question. Eight says ago when you was having your second debate with the PM, we suggested you should challenge the PM why he has he not told NZ yet what plans he has to sell more assets?

    Second question is what safeguards to protect our sovereignty and our right to govern over corporations and foreign Governments, will he disclose those agreements to the electorate now that he has secretly agreed to about the TPPA !! deal and why he will not tell NZ Voters firstly what he has agreed to?

  46. On these poll results, the only way that Labour could form a government is if the Maori Party won all the Maori seats and then gave their support to a Labour/Green government.

    (The Maori Party will not go with a National/New Zealand First coalition government that wants to hold a referendum to abolish the Maori seats, which is a Winston Peters bottom line demand to keep his red-neck Pakeha supporters happpy).

    If Labour really feel that they have something to offer the country, and really want to be the government, then they need to show it. Put all the Maori MPs back on the Labour Party list and tell Labour supporters in the Maori seats to vote tactically.

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