No shocks or surprises here, Labour have plunged 3% to 24%.
Congratulations to the Greens for showing real spine and backbone despite the hate vomited at Metiria.
The jump in Green vote is a slap in the face to every white angry rich male broadcaster who spat venom at her.
Labour have only themselves to blame for this.
They have not rolled out policy fast enough to hold the electorates attention in the hope of keeping their powder dry for the election proper and they have designed policy that only attracts the existing voter base rather than what the Greens have done which is promote beneficiary policy that actually reaches out to the disenfranchised missing million.
It hasn’t of course helped Labour that they face media as biased as this…
…but they should be side stepping that by using social media and dominating the narrative within that field. Andrew and Jacinda should be doing live stream events every week, yet Labour don’t see any value in that.
The good news in all of this is that Labour-NZ First and the Greens are close enough to forming a Government to make this election a fight worth fighting.
The better news would be Labour lifting its game.
Here’s how they do that.
Campaign: Labour are far better prepared for the election than they look. They have a strong ground game (we saw that in the by-elections) and when the election proper hits they have the muscle to drive their vote home in a late surge.
Policy: Their $19billion infrastructure upgrade is an incredible policy they need to be selling far harder. Their radical Maori housing policy released today was revolutionary and the last trick up their sleeve which they haven’t announced yet, something enormous in tertiary education, will suddenly light up student interest in voting Labour.
Maori: With Willie Jackson leading this faction, there will be real momentum, the Maori Housing policy launched today will see 20 000 homes built, that’s incredibly impressive and makes the Maori Party seem terribly irrelevant.
Women: National had taken a huge number of female voters during the Key years, watch Jacinda win them back.
Election focus: Once the debates kick off it will be Andrew up against Bill English, watch Little outperform to everyones surprise.
Labour’s weakness does become NZ First’s strength however and makes the possibility of Winston pushing for PM more likely, but he’s only going to get that if he gets the Greens to agree, which puts the Greens in a far stronger position to be able to get their beneficiary package through.
Fully agree Martyn,
The media is always pouring cold water on everything to do with all three Parties now as to divide and rule.
So Labour/greens/NZ First need to now (at your advise in a strongly worded blog please) get around the “strategy table” to unseat this Government whatever it takes and leave their petty differences aside for our common good.
This slide in the polls, is the genesis to provide the impudicus to these potential partners in the grand new left of centre Government in waiting we need to save the country by combining all their separate strengths before it is to late as the clock is now ticking.
your dreaming any attempt to build homes will undermine existing home owner and home values and its impossible to raise benefit levels poor need to suck it up
Building and construction is essential. Who ever feeds you these rubbish lines needs to be quietly taken out back and shot.
Labour and The Greens social reform policies have all been independently verified.
If the governments own numbers are to be believe, which I doubt. Then it’s all costed. Labour even had the foresight to include $10 billion for unforeseen errors.
So cheer up Darth. It’s not all doom.
… ” Who ever feeds you these rubbish lines needs to be quietly taken out back and shot , – with a ball of their own shit ”…
There you go , mate.
I saw Hosking yapping on in obvious fake moral outrage about Metiria again today in the Herald in oder to lauch a frontal and oblique attack on both the Greens and Labour. He of all people would bleat about that , – you know ,… there is a reason he doesn’t want to disclose his earnings and thus his taxation in being employed in a tax funded media outlet…
Clearly the brain drain between Paul Holms and Mike Hosking is significant. Never before has the gulf between pre 80’s kiwis and post 80’s kiwis been so obvious.
And most of them were state house kids. If only state houses were designed proper with the kitchen facing the sun. Even with its design flaws state houses had its critics, people back in 1939 though they should be more modest. In reality state houses raised NZ housing standards, although that seemed a low bar to clear.
And that’s a point most people miss. Haven’t looked at the numbers but my guess is all the leaky homes victims went out and bought state houses on the cheap.
Infact a properly funded social policy raises living standards.
Before state housing New Zealand was a basket case unable to deal with the realities of The Great Depression of the 30’s. And as conservitives dismantle the legacy of Micheal Savage (Rip) so to does The Great Depression reveal itself.
2011 -2014 -2017- 24 % does not form a government.
A STRONG SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY WILL INCREASE ITS SUPPORT IF IT WOULD JUST GET BACK TO BASICS AND CONNECT WITH THE THOUSANDS OF SUFFERING NEW ZEALANDERS.
Andrew Little ( A GOOD MAN ) has NOT GOT the charisma to really CONNECT with kiwis.
No wonder English is grinning they have it in the bag by DEFAULT.
9 years of the same neo liberal crap as the National party LABOUR NEEDS TO WAKE UP it will not win on 23 September and must re think what it stands for……..kiwis are desperate for REAL change.
2020 will be the watershed generational landslide if LABOUR can really change and deliver.
Right on right on brotha!
Bugger the polls, the only one that counts is on election day.
The only people who care about polls are media and/or bloggers.
They need something to talk about to justify their existence.
Great to see the Greens pushing ahead. Up four points to 15% is good. Proves many Kiwis appreciate honesty in their politicians. Well done Meteria.
#I’mwith Meteria.
Labour needs to get back to it’s core values, of serving the people.
Labour must get back to its core values of serving the people, if it is to gain any traction in the near future. To continue in its present form, will be the death of the party!
Indeed,… and make a far bigger noise about some of the policy’s they have currently and the significance of the MOU.
Not doing that just feeds the trolls. Like Mike Hosking.
Watch this :
Momentum ‘They Just Don’t Get It’ Video – YouTube
youtube▶ 0:54
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=329Z5MuZ9qQ
WHEN are those parties who want to change this National-led Government going to pay attention and focus on this CORPORATE welfare MOUNTAIN instead of the SOCIAL welfare ‘mushroom’?
Seriously?
Here’s the ‘ball’!
How about picking up the bloody thing and ‘running with it’?
WHISTLE-BLOWER ALERT!
“WHERE’S NATIONAL’S ‘CORPORATE WELFARE’ REFORM?
This is the question I asked SIX years ago – and am still asking:
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/m.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00095/wheres-nationals-corporate-welfare-reform.htm
“PRESS RELEASE: Independent Candidate for Epsom Penny Bright:
“How many billion$ of public monies could be saved by ‘CUTTING OUT THE CONTRACTORS’?
3 November 2011
Where’s National’s ‘corporate welfare’ reform?
Which of the maor political parties are pushing for ‘corporate welfare’ reform and shrinking the long-term dependency of the private sector on our public monies?
Penny Bright
‘Anti-privatisation/anti-corruption campaigner’
2017 Independent candidate for Tamaki.
Exposing the $1.6 BILLION Tamaki ‘Regeneration’ – GENTRIFICATION $CAM.
100% Penny,
This Gov’t is a gatekeeper for the world’s financial vermin no less.
If youre talking about the Colmarbullshit poll. 19% undecided so I’d ignore it like the rest of the polls & stick to the Pundits PoP’s & RNZ’s PoP. Still betting it’ll be Lab/NZF Govt without the need for the Greens. The huge number of undecideds are the swing voters & the 95,000 conservative voters looking for a new home. They dont vote Green.
LABOUR MUST BE WHAT ITS PARTY NAME SAYS IT IS…… L A B O U R !!!!!
NOT PITCHING TO A BUSINESS AUDIENCE AND WORRIED IT MIGHT NOT APPEAL TO CORPORATE BUSINESS THAT IS WHAT THE NATIONAL PARTY IS FOR !!!!!!!!
I WANT TO VOTE FOR A LABOUR PARTY THAT STANDS FOR ME AND THOUSANDS OF OTHER KIWIS WHO ARE DOING IT HARD EVERY DAY AND I WANT A LEADER WHO ARTICULATES THAT AND GIVES ME AND MANY OTHERS HOPE AND A CLEAR DIRECTION.
LITTLE ITS TOO LATE…THEY WERE NEVER SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING.
100% MOSA,
They must separate themselves from their bussiness & corporate paymasters and tell us to contribute if they do!!
I’d pay for labour to be free again from the shackles of the business & corporate paymasters if all of us can chip in to.
All they have to do is signal their intent to leave the financial links to business/corporates then they can challenge National to do the same.
Since the self-appointed political pundits of our MSM can’t do it, let’s analyse the so-called “dirty deal”.
National stands candidates in Epsom and Ohariu but tells their supporters not to vote for either of them.
The Greens DON’T stand a candidate in Ohariu and urge their supporters to vote for the Labour candidate.
Now which of the two is the least honest?
Not surprising that the Natzski Herald thinks it is the second, because honesty and transparency are foreign concepts to them.
That blatant political bias displayed by the NZ Herald.
That’s appalling. Absolutely appalling.
Year after year National have kept both ACT and Dunne on life support by doing deals. And certain operatives in the NZ Herald keep writing that sort of obvious biased political drivel.
Its almost laughable that they think people don’t get what their agenda is all about.
Yes , Labour have a quite a number of policy’s addressing the malaise that afflicts NZ at present , and combined with the Greens social / welfare policy’s it is shaping up to be a very dynamic coalition government. If combined with NZ First we will have a winner.
and the failure of labour to do that sort of strategic politicking has lead to the last 3 years of a nat gvt and the horizon looks very much the same this election, there are fools and there are bloody idiots, 47% and 24% has a groundhog day ring to it
The Herald gives Trump the evidence on Fake News.
“Dirty Deals” V “Work With”
Regardless of the outcome of this election, seems the Herald is as corrupt as it’s paid to be.
Something interviewers have been doing for some time now, is , as an aprapo of nothing in particular to what is actually being discussed, throw in a “you’re not looking too flash in the latest polls”, or, “you’re sub 30 in the polls .You must be worried”?
Sometimes, as Lisa Owen did on ‘The Nation’ on Saturday whilst interviewing Willie Jackson, is repeat this over and over again.This technique is a way of sowing the seeds doubt.
Garner Hosking Ferguson and Espiner do it all the time and it has the effect of making the Labour interviewee try to defend or explain themselves , which in turn makes them look weak.
Little ,Ardern , Jackson and Lees Galloway have been caught out by this recently and have said something like, “no things are not looking good at the moment and we have more work to do”.
Aaaaaarrrrgghh,Why would you say that??? Never ever ever show your petticoat like that.Never give an inch .Never!!
Where’s the spunk….the fight…? ???
Here’s a different answer…..
“I notice you always bring up the the polls when I am highlighting the serious issues and injustices facing this country. But if you must, I have recently seen a Roy Morgan poll that has us well over 30% and National on 43, so take your pick. It looks like might have take a look at your methodology.”
Or, the more direct route….”I only talk about policy not polls. It’s policy that stops people sleeping in cars,not David Farrar phoning up a bunch of people and asking ambiguous leading questions”.
Or, the blunt Winston Peters approach”Your polls are rubbish , ours are far more accurate .Sort yourselves out .”
Get some mongrel Labour…..show some self respect.Don’t let yourself be pushed around by our disrespectful media….New Zealand needs you to win!!
I too have noticed the repetitive meme from the main culprits in the media working in tandem all singing the same song constantly slotting it in and all the Labour people fall for it every time and like you I think.. why? It ultimately makes them sound apologetic. Big mistake. Please correct this Labour party.
Awesome.
Hope the left wing leadership gets this advice.
… ” Get some mongrel Labour…..show some self respect ” …
Perfect. The true gutsy vernacular the Kiwi understands.
Turn the shit back on them and put THEM on the defensive. The gloves are off. And the critics , the naysayers and the negative talkers need to be shown just where to take a hike.
If there is one criticism of late we can level at Labour, its this one.
No more of this cringing stuff. Come out fighting and let them have it.
Right between the eyes.
The Greens are demonstrating what happens when you put courageous policy at the centre of your strategy, but also take the risk of putting your reputational money where your mouth is. The policy detail shows us they know how to start fixing the problem, but the personal story helps convince us that the people writing the policy, know what it would be like to live under.
We don’t need to see politicians doing wanky magazine covers or photo ops on the beach. We need to know that they have been through what we live with, or know someone who does, and they care enough to actually want the problem fixed. Labour MPs? What do any of you know about living in precarious circumstances at the bottom of the social heap? I know Clare Curran does, and maybe the rest of the Labour team need to look to her example, camping out in the Octagon for her homeless Dunedin South constituents?
…and TVNZ has shows like seven sharp.
Peter Williams and Corin Dann lied repetitively. Andrew Little didn’t raise the prospect of standing down, he answered a question posed by Corin Dann. To recall last month’s media stirring headlines http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11865741 In the interview with Corin Dann Andrew Little points out that he has the support of the Labour mps/party.The media are complicit in the National party’s dirty politics and have done us a great disservice. They have a lot to answer for.
A+
Thank you Rosielee, Im trying to highlight the media’s fixation and ongoing focus on trying to destabilize Andrew Little’s leadership. Look at the Roskill by election, the media were saying then it was all over for Andrew Little, turns out it was all over for John key.
Over on Stuff website. Welcome to the Natz supporters club. Every criticism of the polls or there govt gets down voted immediatly make ls me wonder if stuff has there own up and down voters on site…
imo the writing has been on the wall for a long time!
Labour never should have got rid of David Cunliffe!…they should have supported him! ( but they were more interested in infighting…David Cunliffe was not supported by Andrew Little and he was actively opposed by the faction Jacinda Adern was in)
…Labour also should never have squeezed out Annette King ( a very effective Minister of Health and Opposition spokesperson on Health)and Sue Moroney and Nanaia Mahuta … all good middle aged Labour women with proven records and appealing face recognition…
( Jacinda Adern despite the hype is obviously Not a winner for Labour …the problem is not just Andrew Little ! …and if they were to get rid of Andrew Little and replace him with Jacinda Adern they would probably go down even further in the polls)
…traditional Labour Party people appreciate loyalty through thick and thin…not opportunists
Re. Jacinda Adern, I completely agree, Red Buzzard.
If Andrew Little is replaced prior to the election, his replacement must surely be the person he very narrowly defeated, and who had more caucus support at the time, that person being Grant Robertson. Jacinda then remains Deputy Leader, which she would have become had Grant succeeded in the leadership contest.
The real problem, of course, is that Labour has not yet openly disavowed the betrayal of 1984-1990. Until it clearly demonstrates that it has, and returns to its core values, electoral support for the party will continue to decline, until the party is no more.
Martyn Bradbury writes:
“They have not rolled out policy fast enough to hold the electorates attention in the hope of keeping their powder dry for the election proper and they have designed policy that only attracts the existing voter base rather than what the Greens have done which is promote beneficiary policy that actually reaches out to the disenfranchised missing million.
It hasn’t of course helped Labour that they face media as biased as this…”
Absolutely correct this assessment, I think.
But for social media, the problem with that is, that most talk on social media is about topics that originated in the MSM, just look at the blogs for instance.
And as mainstream media set the tone, so does the chatter on Twitter, Facebook and other forums simply follow suit, providing no greater insight than most reports by the media offer.
Door knocking and the likes are needed now, not a few days before election date, door knocking and also local meetings, going to the people that Labour and Greens want to reach.
Labour’s policy roll out has sadly not got much attention, as it instantly gets picked to pieces what they offer, while the National Party gets away with too much, being the party in government.
There is no easy answer, but now Labour especially need to mobilise all their supporters, and do the networking and door knocking, and those in Wellington need to get their shit together, no more stuff ups.
But having followed the interviews that were conducted with Andrew Little on RNZ, on the am show and so this morning, and having heard Metiria Turei talk about the Greens, their policy and plans, I feel it is all too damned late. The Memorandum of Understanding is dead, torn to shreds now, it is every party for themselves, and all we see is those on the left of centre taking votes from each other, not growing the total vote, as NZ First is hardly left.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/336141/you-don-t-get-to-form-a-govt-at-24-percent-little
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201852957/greens-won-t-stand-candidates-aside-in-maori-seats
And this is the state of affairs in Auckland:
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/336143/akl-housing-builds-fall-well-short-of-target
And Trotter suggests Jacinda should step in now, and take charge:
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/07/stand-up-jacinda-or-inherit-a-ruin-political-commentator-chris-trotter.html
Wow, are all hoardings going to be getting new placards then?
Nats will end up with a fourth term, with this going on, what a damned shocking state of affairs.
What Labour probably need to do from here on out is not release any more policy and instead focus on reiterating it. Little and Adern should be strangers in their own homes right now, 100% on the road and drumming home the message: jobs, homes, health, education. Keep those policies simple and emphasise how connected they are. Crime and immigration are issues this year, but I think the trick is to emphasise just how much they are corollaries of the major issues around work and housing, jobs and education, health and education, education and work, no issue has a policy cure in isolation. If they can keep the ground game up and keep the messaging tight with an emphasis on the holistic nature of their platform, then they can do this.
The bias in MSM is staggering. Obscene in fact.
Like so many of our joke journalists, Corin Dann may as well have a blue rosette stapled to his forehead. Nothing but a pimp for Nact.
Lab/Green still polling 40%. And, as Takere points out, still a fifth of those polled undecided!
The Stuff site is positively orgasmic on the “Andrew Little is doomed” bullshit.
But of course, they won’t touch the possibility that English (and Hughes) perverted justice re the Barclay affair.
Now there’s a leader who needs his credentials seriously questioned if ever there was one. Key set the bar so low for standards of behaviour that Bill Cosby could lead the National Party & 40-odd percent of the voting population wouldn’t bat an eyelid.
The result of the coming election will be determined the quality of the neuro-linguistic programming that advertising agencies generate, the capacity of candidates and political parties to lie convincingly, the determination of the mainstream media to avoid discussion of all the actual issues that will decide the future of this country, and the willingness of the bulk of the general populace to believe the lies they are told.
In other words, it’s all a puppet show, put on by the international banking community and their local agencies to provide uninformed citizens in the debt-slave camp with the impression their opinions matter or that they have any say in how things are run (citizens have no say, of course).
We can be absolutely that, whoever forms the next government, nothing will change for the better and that everything that matters will be made worse, particularly with respect to the precarious state of the financial system and the environment.
We can be absolutely certain that, whoever forms the next government, we will be lied to throughout the entire term of the government and that short-term Ponzi schemes and dysfunctional systems that enrich opportunists at everyone else’s expense will be promoted.
It pays to remember that the entire economic system is founded on fraud and deceit and the conversion of oil into dangerous wastes, and that it has a very short term as it destroys its own foundations and destroys the very environment that makes life possible.
It also pays to remember that those in control have no intention of ever doing anything to preserve life on Earth, and that their entire focus is preservation of short-term Ponzi schemes……which is why everything that matters will continue to be made worse, much worse, until extinction becomes a certainty for the vast majority of life forms on this planet (including humans):
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_two_years.png
Folks – ‘where the people lead – the politicians will follow’.
Let’s CRANK UP public opposition to CORPORATE welfare!
Use public money for SOCIAL welfare – not CORPORATE welfare!
How much public money is being wasted at local and central government level on the undeserving rich?
Wasted on private sector consultants and contractors – when public services could be provided far more cheaply ‘in house’ under the genuine public service model?
Did you know that contracting out public services have been proven to be TWICE as expensive??
https://m.afscme.org/now/archive/blog/privatization-doesnt-pay-pogo-study-proves
Government contractors cost taxpayers more than federal public service workers to do the same work, according to a new report by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO).
AFSCME has long opposed privatization of public services.
We’ve noted that outsourcing not only wastes taxpayers’ money, but also opens the door to corruption.
In its latest study, “Bad Business: Billions of Taxpayer Dollars Wasted on Hiring Contractors,” POGO reveals just how expensive contracting out really is.
#StopCorporateWelfare
#SocialWelfareNOTCorporateWelfare
#StopCorruption
Penny Bright
2017 Independent candidate for Tamaki
“Women: National had taken a huge number of female voters during the Key years, watch Jacinda win them back”….STOP THAT.
Looking at Jacinda in womens mags, dancing through apple orchards in a floaty dress and jumping on tractors like some Brethren school boy fantasy is NOT going to sucker in National Voters.
National voters, ‘even’ women ones, are pretty happy with their lot.
Jacinda would be well advised to figure out how to make a bigger impact on the women down at the Watties factory (or wherever) who probably aren’t even going to vote this year because, as I regularly hear “It doesn’t make any difference’….Labour needs to present Policy that unequivocally DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE to the lives of workers, renters and strugglers.
How do you know National voters, ‘even’ women ones, are pretty happy with their lot? Are you one of them?
Get women like Carmel Sepuloni and Liz Craig and Jenny Salesa on the job. Far more capable.
“like some Brethren school boy fantasy”
Simile of the year – right there!!
I blame the media.
I blame marketers trying to shape opinion for National
It was a conscious decision for Andrew Little to say publicly that he spoke with his colleagues about his leadership although he has no intention of standing down.
“…but they should be side stepping that by using social media and dominating the narrative within that field.”
As someone blocked from commenting on Labour’s Facebook page, the above made me laugh out loud.
Are Greens voters and voting strategies the problem?
In 2014 in Epsom, there were 4,706 party vote Green and 3,021 vote for Julie Ann Genter electorate vote. Similarly, Labour 5,045 party and 3,460 electorate. Seymour got in on a margin of 4,250 votes.
If all the Greens had given electorate vote to the Nat guy and another thousand of the Labour voters – there would be no ACT in parliament.
In Ohariu 2014, 5,623 party vote Green and 2,764 to the Green electorate candidate. Peter Dunne got in by a margin of 710 votes.
If all the Greens had given electorate vote to the Labour candidate – there would be no United Future/Peter Dunne in parliament.
As it turns out, that’s not the real problem. Yes, the Nats get to finagle an extra seat out of their gaming in Epsom and Ohariu and the Greens and Labour voters not being strategic enough but it’s the wasted votes that are the killer. Running the numbers through the MMP calculator http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator the wasted votes turned National 47.04% party votes at the ballot box into 50.83% as a % of MPs. With no Conservative Party this year, the wasted votes will be down unless TOP gets up but fails to reach 5% and its votes get redistributed to National.
MMP? So over it – it’s a crock when it comes to properly reflecting representation from what happens at the ballot box.
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