Escape Velocity: The Greens Rocket Out Of Labour’s Gravity

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WHERE DOES LABOUR go from here? Because their Big Plan is fluttering down to earth in flaming tatters – burned out of the sky by Metiria Turei and the Greens.

Labour’s Big Plan? What’s that?

Simple. Labour’s Big Plan was an election strategy based entirely on luring the National voters of 2008, 2011 and 2014 back into Labour’s column. Tactically, that required Labour to be seen, by the people that matter – i.e. Chambers of Commerce and senior political journalists – as the “responsible” providers of “strong and stable” government. It also required the side-lining and/or removal of all those Labour MPs, party workers and ordinary members who see Labour as something more than National’s occasional substitute. At the same time, the Greens had to be persuaded to soften their public image and become Labour’s equally “responsible” helpers.

If these objectives are achieved, Andrew Little’s campaign strategists assure him, Labour will win and you will be Prime Minister.

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To give the people behind Labour’s Big Plan their due, they came bloody close to pulling it off. Matt McCarten was exiled to Auckland, leaving the Leader of the Opposition’s Office in the hands of political operatives who looked for guidance and inspiration to the campaign “professionalism” of the Blairite Labour Party and the US Democratic Party. (It was McCarten’s determination to re-energise Labour’s electoral effort that led to the “Campaign For Change” fiasco.)

Even more successful were the Big Planners’ efforts to empty the Green brand of its “scary” radicalism. The infamous North & Southcover shoot was only the most cheesy example of this re-branding exercise. Of considerably more importance was the Labour leadership’s success in persuading the Greens to sign-up to Grant Robertson’s extraordinary “Budget Responsibility Rules”. The latter were the clearest possible signal to the business community that it had nothing to fear from a change of government.

It’s possible that the Greens’ “rejuvenated” Party List is another side-effect of Labour’s “taming” of the Greens. The party’s new faces: Chloe Swarbrick, Golriz Ghahraman, Jack McDonald and Haley Holt; will have their chance to prove or disprove the charge in the weeks and months that lie ahead. In the words of Matthew’s gospel: “Ye shall know them by their fruits.”

That Labour’s Big Plan might be at risk was first revealed by NZ First’s gathering political momentum. Clearly, there was a hunger out there in the electorate for something gruntier than the Little/Shaw Business Breakfast Travelling Roadshow. Winston Peters’ angry denunciation of Neoliberalism (something Labour has yet to do unequivocally) struck a nerve in those voters weary of National but wary of Labour. The shift was on – Peters felt it in his bones – and his ambitions for the 2017 contest expanded accordingly.

The realisation that Labour’s Big Plan might result in the Greens being hopelessly compromised as a political force came very late. Labour’s strategists have for long been convinced that electoral success can only be achieved by substantially increasing Labour’s support, and that that, in turn, will only happen by decreasing the electoral heft of the Greens. That decrease can be absolute or relative – it hardly matters. What counts is that the public be reassured that in any future Labour-Green Government, Labour will be calling the shots.

Fortunately for the Greens, there were enough ex-Alliance activists in their ranks to warn them of the consequences of Labour’s Big Plan. First, your Party Vote drops precipitately. Second, your MPs are co-opted by their Labour “comrades” – to the point where they start looking upon their own members as “the enemy”. Third, the party descends into acrimonious arguments and recriminations, splits into factions, and falls below the 5 percent MMP threshold at the next election. Even those Greens disinclined to be believe the old Alliance fighters, could hardly deny that this is precisely what happened to the German Greens.

If the Greens were to be treated as anything other than Labour’s hapless footstool, then they had to do something. The party’s unease was heightened by the obvious success of Winston Peters’ angry populism. Speculation was growing that, once again, the Greens were going to be jilted at the altar. The much bally-hooed Labour-Green “Memorandum of Understanding” notwithstanding, it was generally agreed that NZ First was winking at Labour in the most provocative fashion.

If the Greens failed to pick up the banner of left-wing populism – which Labour steadfastly refused to touch – then the 2017 General Election was going to leave them politically stranded. Their best option: junior partners in a cautiously centrist Labour-led administration. Their worst: to sit in helpless frustration on the cross-benches as Andrew Little and Winston Peters governed the country over their heads.

Only by striking out boldly in the direction of the radicalism that Labour had worked so hard to extract from the Greens’ manifesto, could their supposed “partner’s” Big Plan be stymied. The launch of the party’s welfare policies at its AGM provided an opportunity for this departure. There was nothing cold-blooded about this. It represented, rather, the whole party’s growing awareness that it was on the wrong road. Six months earlier, they might have pulled their punches on welfare; now they saw the policy launch as possibly their last chance to reassert the Green Party’s core commitment to transformative politics. Metiria Turei’s decision to add the booster-rocket of her personal testimony as a former beneficiary to the launch – even at the cost of her political future – allowed her party to achieve escape velocity.

Ignited by the fiery exhaust of the Green’s policy rocket, Labour’s Big Plan burst into flame and crashed. Weary National supporters are unlikely to cross all the way over to Labour if it means endorsing, even tacitly, the behaviour of “welfare cheats”. For these cautious Kiwis, NZ First will be “quite far enough, thank you”. Meanwhile, Labour’s increasingly disillusioned progressive supporters will listen to their party’s deafening silence on the heart-and-soul issues paraded front-and-centre by Metiria and the Greens – and draw the inescapable conclusion. That to keep faith with the legacy of Mickey Savage, Norman Kirk – and Rod Donald – there is only one way to cast their Party Vote.

For the Greens.

76 COMMENTS

  1. Quote; Chris said,

    “It also required the side-lining and/or removal of all those Labour MPs, party workers and ordinary members who see Labour as something more than National’s occasional substitute. At the same time, the Greens had to be persuaded to soften their public image and become Labour’s equally “responsible” helpers.

    If these objectives are achieved, Andrew Little’s campaign strategists assure him, Labour will win and you will be Prime Minister.”

    OUR FEEDBACK ON THIS CHRIS;

    We are natural labour supporters around the provinces;

    the real issues here they have is that Labour MP’s on the last three years have been hard to get involved with local issues of concern to them and their community groups.

    I am on one such local community group that have been working on heavy truck impacts in our region and have found it harder & harder every year to get our local Labour MP involved, and this sends the community a very bad signal.

    We hope Labour do what Helen Clark did years ago when she won in 1999 by coming out with a new policy platform of “inclusion & INVOLVEMENT” with communities and become a “kinder gentler Government” RATHER THAN BECOMING MORE DETACHED AS IS THE CASE TODAY?

  2. An excellent article on the subject.

    A highlight.
    ‘Metiria is asking us to care again for each other. To have compassion for our neighbour and our whānau. To see ourselves in the other. To embrace the leper. Stacey Kirk described it succinctly:

    “She’s effectively drawing an ideological line in the sand and asking New Zealanders: “Which side are you on?””

    Each of us needs to ask ourselves that question in the coming election and vote accordingly. If you are going to vote for the status quo, for individualism, for gated communities of the like minded, for the current power arrangements, for the current economic system, for you retaining much whilst many have little, I have a warning for you. If we will not change to a path of generosity, then look to the recent Bastille Day celebrations and remember: a day of reckoning is coming, when all of your walls will fall and the many will take what the few have greedily hoarded.’

    https://firstwetakemanhattan.org/2017/07/26/raging-at-metiria-is-not-about-the-fraud-its-that-she-sided-with-the-lepers/

  3. And so ends another twice weekly installment of the Labour Party kick in by Nationals devils advocate, ChrisTrotter.

    It’s not that their policies are bad, far from actually, it’s that no one in Labour is shouting it to anyone who will listen!

    But we have to hear what a heroine Metiria is for telling us 20 years later she ripped off the welfare system and until employers stop using cheap foreign labour and pay people properly, The Greens will make social welfare a reasonable paying career. This is not going tontaje tge nation with them.

    But why now Metiria?

    For Labour, meekness and a stiff upper lip rules the day.

  4. You certainly wear a number of hats, depending on your audience, Chris; waxing lyrical and gushing over Winston’s economic nationalism in the ‘mainstream media’, and the Greens here.

    As a direct descendant of Savage, I find the flip-flopping disingenuous I also think that you should start being honest and telling the ‘left’ that the Natzis have this election in the bag, because they do. The entire thing is rigged, and any talk of some undecided result come September is a lie, and I think you know that.

    The greatest and most honest thing you have ever written is this:

    “It may require a revolution to do it, but, one day, the tino rangatiratanga flag will replace the silver fern, the Southern Cross and the Union Jack.”

    Yes.

    • With due respect to Micheal Joseph and the team that got him there, I find inheritance of their good is confined to current actions exhibited and abiding principles.

      The worthy heros behind the Labour movement are the protagonist who pushed the leaders who later gained the credits. A lot has been written about his from within the party.

      I was appalled at Grant Robertsons gabble in response to a question put to him about climate change. He waffled and used the Greens verbage as though it was Labour’s policy but gave no action plan about significant or effective change.

      Scaring the horses was his excuse admitted in private discussion.

      We need to change the Govt as an imperative but the driving need is to change direction away from feeding the few at the cost to the rest in a way that may give some hope of a future at this late stage.

      Heads in the sand have little vision.

  5. Hi Chris
    Metiria’s speech has certainly got attention and debate going, but whether the overall effect will positive or negative for the Greens, judging by the variety of comment, is anyone’s guess at this point. If it leads as a possibility you suggest, to the end of her career then the support she has drawn from her admission will presumably go too.
    I hope she has not hung herself politically, it would be a loss. The best hope is that she has stimulated the missing million.
    D J S

  6. People don’t need to worry about a NZF/Labour partnership sidelining the Greens. It won’t happen, Winston will finish up supporting the Nats if it comes to his choice.
    D J S again

    • David Stone thumbs down with your assessment of NZ First Winston Peters.

      Winston has said NO to joining in a National Government, at several meetings around the country provincial regions, I have attended as a interested voter.

      I heard many times from his Q+A to others at meetings when asked “Would he consider going with National”?

      He had that whimsical winning smile and usually added some comment like, “why would I consider joining a political Party that is doing all the things I have railed against for many years?”

      Never will he join a National Party lead Government, he would sit on the cross benches before considering that we all believed after being at his meetings.

      National used to mean “for the people of the country”

      The truth is; this “National” Government are swiftly selling all the country up as fast as they can to foreigner’s.

      • Cleangreen
        I think Winston will make that choice because I think he will get more influence in negotiations with national than he will with labour and the Greens. He might be able to curb some of the policies that he is on about, at least while they need him.
        In a coalition with Labour/Greens as they are at the moment his profile, his political nous, and his personality would eclipse the personnel of the two other parties whatever the official leadership roles were. He would be the go-to person for the media on every issue and would be the de facto leader.
        They are going to sense this and will seek to stifle his capacity to stand out in any arrangement which will compromise what they feel they can afford to offer him.
        There are more ignorant self opinionated egotists in the Nats organisation so they can afford to offer him a better deal, they will feel that they can contain him.
        Also he has said in the past that he feels the party that gets most votes has a democratic right to be given priority in considering who he should support, and that seems sure to be the nats even if you add the Greens and Labour together.
        Cheers D J S

      • “The decision also came as a surprise to some, given NZ First’s attacks on Prime Minister Jim Bolger’s National government and an election survey suggesting two-thirds of the party’s voters expected it to back Labour and the Alliance.”

        Never trust someone who answers with a ‘whimsical winning smile’.

  7. NZ Greens could leave Labour behind in its wake, if Labour doesn’t get over itself and start acting like a party going into an election, wanting to win and be government.

    The Greens’ progressive members and policies are beginning to make Labour’s lot look dour, tired and boring, with no in your face exciting policies to set NZ on fire, enticing Kiwis to vote for the party.

    Pity really, because for a change of government, Labour is going to have to lead the opposition in the challenge, which at present doesn’t seem to be happening!

  8. Very good article Chris! 🙂 Corbyn’s meteoric rise to challenge Neoliberalism has shown the ‘people’ have had a gutsful of austerity, misery, lies and greed. Even U$ people are now aware of how they’ve been impoverished for the corporations and the 1%. Labour are timid. Timidity didn’t get Corbyn to where he is today!

  9. Chris Trotter

    It is always uncomfortable seeing you slagging off against Labour who have fielded honest and competent people like Andrew Little, David Cunliffe, Michael Cullen and Helen Clark in recent years.

    Your friends the Nationals will give you a Civic Honour “at the end of the Day” Mr wandering Trotter.

    Mr Secretive Peters will get his honours too in the same ceremony. As will Mr Mesmerised Shaw.

    And the existing muddle of a Government will not have changed in the least.

    For whereas Matiria Turie will have given Beneficiaries excellent long overdue recognition of their hardship – the middle rump of New Zealand families will have been dragged deeper into Nationals’ low wage, unaffordable rents and Housing strategy.

    Not to mention unreal high cost of food and energy. Or broken down Health and Education services. And lack of Opportunity.

    You will have further promoted the enormous middle class working slum – for the wealthy few – in particular dodgy Bill and Paula.

  10. 30 years of the absolute determination to practice the politics of failure have resulted in Labour becoming part of the problem and completely irrelevant as far as genuine progress is concerned. Their latest election campaign consists of erection of meaningless slogans on billboards and candidates spouting yet more lies.

    And the ‘Greens’ are worse than Labour because they not only practice the politics of failure but they also practice the politics of deceit…..pretending to be environmentally responsible whilst promoting business-as-usual policies that result in continuing planetary meltdown and continuing societal mayhem associated with consumerism.

    No wonder trust of politicians stands at an all-time low of below 10%

    • According to a column by an academic for the Centre for Sustainability at Otago Uni, published recently in the ODT, there is reason for “cautious optimism” about official responses to climate change. Some countries, and groups of countries, have achieved significant economic growth without increasing their emissions. This proves that switching investment (community, state, or private) from fossil fuels to renewables (for example), and redeploying labour and materials from fossil fueled industries into renewable-powered industries, can provide environment benefits *and* economic ones.

      This is the path that sane governments need to be leading their countries down. Based on what I’ve observed over 30 years of watching NZ politics, this is the path I believe a government made up primarily of Labour/ Greens would lead Aotearoa down, while NatACT/ UF/ NZ First would continue down the socially timid (conservative”), fossil fool, business-as-usual path that leads off an ecological *and* economic cliff. Ad nauseum repetition of the baseless claim that because none of the parties are perfect they are all as bad as each other, with no reference to actual policy or record in government, is the politics of despair. It’s part of the problem, not part of the solution to the climate change, energy descent, financialization, managerialism, the hollowing out of democracy, or any of the other serious problems we face.

      • NZ Universities are business-as-usual businesses, dedicated to promoting business-as-usual and extracting fees from naïve and unwitting students. It’s all about money these days.

        Nothing in the current system is by any stretch of the imagination sustainable because it is ALL dependent on consumption of rapidly
        depleting petroleum-based fuels, and every aspect of life in industrialised societies leads to unnatural CO2 emissions and planetary meltdown……which is why we witness increased atmospheric CO2 and record low ice cover at both ends of the plane

        Industrial societies are founded on fraud, ignorance, deceit and denial of reality, and they have a very grim short-term future, with the biggest crash in history coming within 5 years, if not 3 years.

        • 100% AFEWKNOWTHETRUTH.

          Nactional are probably aware of the biggest financial crash coming inside two years.

          As Jim Rogers has been warning the whole bloody world for some time since in 2008 we were again setting ourselves up for the next crash.

          Rogers explained that the last crash was caused by the over-valued Stocks and shares and everyone was over-extending themselves, and carrying far to much debt.

          As Jim Rogers said to Max Kaiser on RT’s ‘Kaiser report’ today he has never seen such an over-leveraged economy as we have now as we owe three times what we all owned back in 20008 and he said this will trigger the biggest crash ever.

          Best get this Treasonous government out of our country now as these traitors will sell the whole country for a song this time to Elitists if we keep National in power.

    • AFKTT – All time low in the minds of an uneducated public. Labour needs to facilitate public education about what is really happening. if they are wary of scaring the horses then let the Greens do it and give them support.

      Labour joined with others in shooting down and ally in Mana.

      An unprincipled action playing right into the neoliberal lobby’s hands while losing support for their own social agenda.

      When labour denounces the douglas era sell out, then they may set themselves free to become Labour in principle.

      That denouncement would have been effective if it had been done many month ago giving time to rebuild a Labour platform.

      Presently Labour is trapped by its acceptance of is diabolical era of destruction which has hurt NZ deeply.

      • Hear! Hear! John W! I have waited for decades for Labour to apologise for the Douglas/Longe era and get rid of their still present, long past their use by date, neo-liberals. Chris T is accurate in his comments.

  11. The time is ripe for another small party. Analogous to 2002. Where National party surporters were despondent and did not want the Greens to have any levers of government. That’s where you had sugar rush votes to United future and NZF.

    The biggest winners from Turei’s Torments is likely to be TOP and NZF. The Left wing will lose segments of the centre left, those who can’t stand such in-your-face dishonesty.

    The TOP should be using this moment as an opportunity to cast itself as the party that would advocate for Green policies in a National led government. They can work with National as well and is a better alternative to xenophobic NZF.

  12. Yep, Metiria has to stick to her guns. The hypocrites will bridle but she’ll get a heap of respect, more than she’s garnered already.

  13. … ” Meanwhile, Labour’s increasingly disillusioned progressive supporters will listen to their party’s deafening silence on the heart-and-soul issues paraded front-and-centre by Metiria and the Greens – and draw the inescapable conclusion. That to keep faith with the legacy of Mickey Savage, Norman Kirk – and Rod Donald – there is only one way to cast their Party Vote.

    For the Greens ” …

    Powerful stuff, Mr Trotter.

    As an ex Alliance and Anderton supporter , you make it hard for me to vote Labour this election ,… as I was just warming to some of Labours policy potential regarding lifting the minimum wage and mention of implementing the Living Wage among the public sector…

    After 33 years of railing against Labour as a direct result of Rogernomic’s and their failure to refute it. It was always a toss up between the Alliance and NZ First for me. Both were far , far closer to the values I held.

    I despised both Labour and National.

    But I see both Labour and the Greens bringing both sides of the social democratic coin to the table this election ,… with the difference being Labours obvious reticence to denounce neo liberalism entirely because it still harbors neo liberals in key positions in its caucus , – the very reason why they continually to have done poorly in the polls over the last 9 years and have given no real no alternative to National .

    But I guess I will still vote Labour as I intended , I still see shoring up a broad Labour base as essential for what I would like to see , – a coalition between , Labour, Greens and NZ First. Because all three hit all the high notes of what I believe National , ACT , United / Dunne can not , will not , and never ever will.

    I could quite happily vote for all three , – Labour , Greens , NZ First , – if that was the reality, but of course its not. All three have good policy’s, and good people that will do well for New Zealand.

    For me its a tough choice this election.

  14. So you think the Greens could govern alone?

    By denigrating Labour constantly, you do not credit them with any of the caring and heart that is clearly displayed in their policies.

    That they are in a mou with each other, allows them to appeal to a demographic across a wide church.

    You sound bitter and keep saying Labour has removed the “old left”.

    Going to the meetings and listening and talking with Andrew, it becomes apparent he believes Labour moved too far from it’s roots and needed to change back.

    He has brought on board a seemingly disparate group. He has encouraged the wonderful young members to step up, and steered the remaining “old brigade” into more suitable roles without losing their goodwill.

    All of this in one term!!!

    When asked about Metiria, He said he was sorry for her.

    I find it hugely interesting he has 10 billion for initiatives and bargaining yet to be announced.

    Personally I think he is a strategist, and a “large picture” player.

    He has a personal record of being true to his beliefs and built his life around the same.

    I hope Metiria is successful in bringing on board the disenchanted.

    She has made some of Winson’s positions look like grandstanding, and we do not know that he will support the Left, but we know Metiria will

    So as supporters of the Left be united in our efforts.

    We can donate enrol and vote.

    • 100% Kim Dandy.

      All three Parties Labour,Greens, NZ First must get around the table of “dissolution of the National Party” and patch up their differences NOW in an “air of unity & conciliation” and present as “A GOVERNMENT IN WAITING” before the electorate gets confused so badly as not knowing whom to vote for as we see here.

      • A values-based Labour/ Green/ NZ First coalition could be a great thing in theory, but every signa for NZ First is that its not going to happen. For a start, there’s inviting veteran greenie-basher Shane Jones to be a candidate. Then there’s Peters jumping on the Māori-bashing waka that Don Brash launched in his infamous Orewa speech. This is a campaign designed to appeal to proto-fascists who think National is too soft on the “maaris” (and the “sheilas” and the “poofs”), and it’s totally incompatible with the egalitarian values that provide the essential common ground for the Labour/ Greens MoU, and indeed the historical and contemporary left as whole.

        People who want to see the NatACTS lose power need to stop kidding themselves that NZ First is part of the left. When Peters left National, it was invited to become part of the Alliance. Instead, even before MMP, NZ First campaigned against the left. In 1996, then kept National in power rather than govern with the left. In 2005, they formed a government with Labour, but like United Future, they did so to pull Labour to the right on social issues, sewing dissent within the party and stranding it on a soft-National sandbar it’s only just started to float itself off (see Dunedin South MP Clare Curran’s brave Octagon occupation in solidarity with homeless solo Mums).

        This year, given the chance, NZ First will justify propping up National again, by claiming they are governing with them to pull them “to the left”. We need to stop falling for this circus. Despite their centrist, Muldoonist economic policy, NZ First are a right-wing nationalist party. Rather than see a Labour/ Greens government saddled with them, I’d prefer to see Labour and the Greens keep their powder dry, and let National, Seymour, and Dunne drink that poisoned chalice.

    • @ KIM DANDY … BINGO! You got it in one there my friend, to focus on the aim and to break the hold of National.

  15. It will be interesting to see what the polls say. I’m sure Ms Turei is speaking to someone with her admission and the welfare policy launch. That someone isn’t me.
    I suspect it’s a play for those of the missing million on welfare. Let’s hope it’s enough to get them to vote.

  16. The time is ripe for a small party. Analogous to 2002. Where National party surporters were despondent and did not want the Greens to have any levers of government. That’s where you had sugar rush votes to United future and NZF.

    The biggest winners from Turei’s Torments is likely to be TOP and NZF. The Left wing will lose segments of the centre left, those who can’t stand such in-your-face dishonesty. Turei seems to going for the miniscule Mana voter at the expense of leftish centre voters. Labour will be affected by association, as you can not get a Labour led party without the Greens.

    The TOP should be using this moment as an opportunity to cast itself as the party that would advocate for environmental policies in a possible National led government. They can work with National and is a better alternative to xenophobic NZF.

    • Bullshit.

      Your whole premise is built upon hoping that all beneficiaries are stupid. They are not.

      And neither is Labour threatened by the Greens pitch to large numbers of beneficiaries either , you fool.

      There is a MOU in operation if you need reminding. As such both the Greens and Labour are presenting two sides of the coin ,… a double pronged attack if you will, at National.

      As for NZ First , they will hardly want to be tarred with the neo liberal fiasco’s of 9 years of the National party.

      National has become a social cancer to not be seen with.

      As for TOP?

      They will go towards the new govt. And they will do so to advance their own policy’s. And fair enough. Even if they are on the cross benches.

      What you are now looking at is a completely new and uncharted territory for NZ politics and the implications for the citizens of NZ. It will be volitile, dynamic, democratic and, above all ,… will benefit the vast majority of people . Unlike the media bolstered numbers defined as a ‘ majority’ by the National party.

      And as consequence of that , many old orders will now become threatened and increasingly irrelevant.

      I look forwards to an historic reviewing of the damage and theft committed by the likes of the New Zealand Initiative ( formerly the Business Roundtable ) and ongoing waves of journalistic inquiry’s as to just how and why they were allowed to maintain such an inordinate influence on NZ politics in future… and the political front people responsible for enabling that theft.

      • The premise is that beneficiaries don’t vote in general. They are apathetic and there isn’t enough of them. Compared to the centre voters who decide the election.
        Labour strategy was to target these centre voters as Chris was saying but that has been blown out of the water.

        Waiting for the next poll.

        • Waiting for the next poll.

          what for? The polls won’t enlighten you on the mood or electoral intent of the beneficiaries or missing million.

  17. So they can bury their Memorandum of Understanding, or that fiscal prudence agreement at least, that is Labour and Greens, as the proposed benefit increases will of course cost a lot to the taxpayer. Metiria’s admissions of not telling the whole truth when on the DPB many years ago is morally right and deserves respect, but it is at the same time politically naive.

    I do not see all that many votes to be gained in this coming elections, that is for the Greens, but they will hold their ground, perhaps win a percent or two more from former non voters. For the rest, this society has been turned into one of finger pointing Pharisees, where any person not fitting the hard working Kiwi label is instantly attacked and humiliated.

    That is the so called centre of voters, the silent majority, I think, who Labour has been so keen on winning votes in, with what dismal result.

    Winston will win perhaps 15 percent, I reckon, Labour will hardly reach 30 percent, and Greens may get 10 to 13 percent, that is what I expect for 23 September 2017.

    Sadly, the Nats will probably get enough to rule a fourth term, as Labour will not manage to get Greens and NZ First in under one agreement, and sit on the cross benches for another three years.

    Once we had another term of this nasty lot that rules us now, perhaps some New Zealanders will by then wake up and see a need for more revolutionary action than bother voting a lesser evil before a worse evil.

  18. “That to keep faith with the legacy of Mickey Savage, Norman Kirk – and Rod Donald – there is only one way to cast their Party Vote.

    For the Greens.”

    Unfortunately for Labour, this is proven correct when Jacinda Ardern passed judgement on Metiria Turei’s lying over her benefit;

    But she did question Ms Turei’s lack of remorse and the perception she might be endorsing fraud.

    “When you’re lawmakers, you can’t condone lawbreaking. You can share your story from your past, but of course you can’t then condone it,” said Ms Ardern.

    “When you are a lawmaker, you have to be very clear about when what you’ve done in your past has been right or it’s been wrong.”

    ref: http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/07/you-can-t-condone-lawbreaking-jacinda-ardern-to-metiria-turei.html

    The worst thing about Labour’s leadership, post Norman Kirk, is it’s timidity to side with those at the bottom of the economic scrapheap.

    That is why Labour is low in poll ratings – it is National-Lite and why vote “Lite” when you can have the real thing.

    • Bloody good words , Mr FRANK MACSKASY , as per usual.

      However , I still feel the need to give my vote to Labour as a tactical one.

      1 ) Because of their stance on the minimum wage and implications for a future Living Wage.

      2 ) To provide a platform for the Greens to come in as coalition partners.

      3 ) Because between Labour and the Greens , they both hit welfare and wages, hence standards of living for working people.

      That said, … 100 % support for Metiria Turei.

      Brave , honest and gutsy.

      We need that woman in parliament as part of the government along with her fellow Green party MP’s.

      Come what may in September.

      • 199% Wild katipo,

        We need to keep the “battle lines drawn” using any coalition partners we have been with previously during this century.

        They are important as our backing base going forward this “crucial” election to finally eject this Nactional administration.

        National has again and again proven to be nothing but a “toxic, evil, gatekeeper,” designed expressly just for the interests of the Global elite to take everything from us while they can.

        Remove Nactional from our shores in September 2017 – in eight weeks time please!

    • The Greens may be in Parliament but they are not law makers yet. You have to be in parliament to take part in actually changing the laws.

      So she is not making laws controlling benefits yet, and is signaling that laws need to be changed.

      How hard is that to see.

      It is fraud for National or Labour to administer the social support systems the way they are now and assist in creating more poverty, homelessness and escalating wealth for multinationals and the investor state who feed of consumerism.

  19. It’s so true, Labiur is masquerading as a worker’s party, but they departed from the core values of traditional Labour values with the David Lange government and look like a slightly more liberal form of National.
    There isn’t a real workers party in New Zealand at present and I can’t see any probability of meaningful political representation for workers in the future.
    Labour needs to take a hard look at it’s self and honesty ask themselves are they relevant or is the Labour Party a historical remnant from yesteryear and should stop the pretense and step aside ,New Zealanders need real representation.

    • “Labour needs to take a hard look at it’s self and honesty ask themselves are they relevant or is the Labour Party a historical remnant from yesteryear and should stop the pretense and step aside ,New Zealanders need real representation.”

      And in the meantime N.Z. burns. Another 3 years of National and it will be to the ground!
      And please remember, National will have been in power all this time whilst you carry on blaming Labour.

    • “Labour needs to take a hard look at it’s self and honesty ask themselves are they relevant or is the Labour Party a historical remnant from yesteryear and should stop the pretense and step aside ,New Zealanders need real representation.”

      And in the meantime N.Z. burns. Another 3 years of National and it will be to the ground!
      And please remember, National will have been in power all this time whilst you carry on blaming Labour.

    • Of course they do Marc. This is why Metiria has taken such a huge personal and political risk to stand with the “reserve army of labour” (the unemployed and others not currently in fulltime paid work). Why do people have such trouble understanding that for as long as they have existed as a separate party, the NZ Greens have consistently been a better defender of workers rights than NZ Labour?

  20. The only chance NZ has to change the Government is for Labour to get some wavering National voters to vote for them. There is no point Labour heading further left and squabbling over who has the most righteous socialist agenda.

  21. Typical Chris Trotter push for the National Party…his hand ringing over the Labour Party and his sudden love of the Greens…simply reeks of hypocrisy and shows clearly his pen is poisoned.

    We all must vote tactically. If the Greens or NZ First can’t win your electorate seat, then vote Labour and give your party vote to the greens or NZ First, and pray that Winston will not go with National, if you think he will give your party vote to Greens or Labour.

    Chris the goal is to get National out…not reelected as you seem to want!

    • Peter Wheeler – that is stupid. Chris Trotter is not a childish propagandist. Your attempt to portray him as such shows that you lack his objectivity and historical knowledge. Sorry – I now see you as a propagandist who thinks that nobody should publish unpleasant truths that clash with your outlook. The Greens have risen in the poll published tonight (Sunday 30 July) and Chris correctly said it would be so. He wants Labour to perform. He is not pro-National. I feel the same – Labour has never done anything to overturn the disaster of Rogernomics. All it has done is stall. And it has always left in place the plumbing for the next National Govt to push further its neo-liberal policies. The Greens have indeed rocketed out of Labour’s weak gravity, and it is now up to Labour to stop sitting on its hands.

  22. Why ?

    Why do so many writers on here avoid attacking the crippled Dishonest National Party and their grossly wealthy supporters ?

    One after the other, nearly every writer on here accepts the likes of Showman Key, Dodgy English, Cruel Bennett, Crusher Collins, Bridges, McCully; Joyce; Barclay; Tolley..and scores of other trash.. Dishonesty piled on top of Incompetence.

    All of those ratbags just caring only for for their dishonest wealthy mates.

    National’s stench rises higher than Sky City ! Yet hardly a single person here calls them to task and dismantles their corruption.

    While Labour (with the exception of that politically filthy Roger Douglas) promotes Sharing and Decency and Honesty. As it has always done.

    As you well know !

    • OK OT – you care passionately. But we need to be dispassionate and face the unpleasant facts which beleaguer us.

  23. Metiria’s admission was brave, and refreshingly honest.
    But her martyrdom may have cost Labour/Green any chance of picking up those soft centre votes. Those comfortable middle-class types are now brainwashed into competing with everyone else. And they become intensely jealous of any perceived unfair advantage, if they were/are not in a position to benefit from it.
    That hate has been tapped into. Metiria has fed the attack lines of Nazional/Act. And it is being hammered again, again and again in MSM.
    Which surely to goodness they knew was going to happen, right? Right??!
    Whilst the government was under fire for the Barclay affair, it’s now Todd who? It’s stolen oxygen from other all the other corrupt and incompetent Government practices exposed since the John Key show left town.
    If it succeeds in arousing the missing million, then hallelujah!. That will tip the election on its head. But remember those disenfranchised have been brainwashed too. The label of ‘unworthy’ and ‘failures’ used by the fortunate and lucky comfortable types has stuck. They believe nothing will change, no matter who’s in charge. They disengage. Some almost have an automatic involuntary refusal to participate, so beaten down by the system have they been. And how many read/connect with the few arenas of non-MSM political discourse such as the Daily Blog? If their only engagement is TV news and the comments sections of Stuff, then they won’t be inspired.
    Its one helluva risk, and it doesn’t just affect the Greens.
    Nazional knows how to play politics. To win in politics, you lie, cheat, bribe, flip-flop and do clandestine deals. You just DON’T GET CAUGHT. Sadly, this works. Once you’re in power , you can break every election pledge it seems, on the flimsiest of excuses. In fact, the brainwashed public have come to expect this after 9 years of this corrupt government.
    But the Greens political tactics have struck me as consistently naive, and unsure. One minute, its the cover of North & South in suits and gowns, then it’s champion of the underdog. They could have siphoned some of those wavering ‘blue-green’ middle classes, but now I fear many will have hardened their hearts because they’re “not gonna’ see my bloody taxes go to those bludgers”.
    All the coalition of the Left had to do to win this Election was hold their noses, play the game, and keep their “horse frightening” policies under wraps until elected (a la Nazional). There is so much ammunition to hammer this government with. But instead, the risky option of handing a nuclear warhead or two to fire back was taken.
    We shall see if it was worth it soon enough.

    • Bloody good blog there QUICKSILVER

      This 2017 election is like watching “sand through an hourglass”.

      I hope all three Labour/green/NZ First get together for a coalition of the “new deal” to rid this evil Government whatever it takes!!!!!!!

    • Nah!!!!!!

      Labour are gathering pace here today on Q+A they have a new addition to release today on their Housing policy!!!!

      So we are seeing now that as we go through the next eight weeks to the election Nactional will shed more ground as these new dynamic policies emerge from the centre left block parties.

      It ain’t over till the bell-lady rings!!!!

    • I think it might be the other way around. I was talking with a Labour candidate and he told me that he is constantly running into people who won’t vote Labour because of the Greens and their perceived extreme left policy platform. But according to the poll tonight, Labour are in deep trouble

  24. NOW this is for all those who are considering who is the best side to join.

    “The five headed monster”

    Firstly National criticised Labour of making up “A FIVE HEADED MONSTER” back in 2005 when Helen was putting a combination together
    during those tumultuous times when John Key was joining the fray.

    Now we are fighting over a POSSIBLE “THREE HEADED MONSTER”!!!!!

    Labour/green/NZ First.

    Then we glace over the aisle at National trying to construct again a National/United/Maori/Act/TOP combo??????

    Does this not look also like another “FIVE HEADED MONSTER”

    Let us hear from National that what they said in 2005 is now still true that a five headed monster wont work??????

    Where there’s a will there’s a way we say!

    UNITED WE STAND DIVIDED WE FALL.

  25. MOnty 12
    30 July 2017 at 6:20 pm
    Looking at the poll tonight Labour are in serious trouble. The support they have lost has seemingly moved over to the Greens who are on 15%, but at 24% Labour are in deep trouble. I’m wondering if their support is likely to fall another 2-3%, and I believe there is a serious risk of this, and meanwhile National continue to hold steady on 47% which is where have been more or less for nearly a decade. THe Labour leadership need to ask why their party has stubbornly remained 20ish points behind National for a decade

    • RESULTS OF THE TVNZ ONE POLL;

      MY THOUGHTS.

      The Media has played a large part of this now.

      We no longer now have ‘close-up’ and Paul Homes show ‘Homes’.

      Why don’t we have those hard hitting critical ‘current public affairs shows during the week now!!!!

      They used to show the cracks in the current administrative performance of this Government.

      Designed to allow critical mid weekly Investigative journalism assessments of provocative insights played a big part also in everything going on with Government

      No wonder we have voters now turned off to everything as there are no shows to provide thoughts on Government performance.

      I have repeatedly suggested on this excellent website of Martyn Bradbury for us to have a movement to get all the opposition parties to collectively demand the public media RNZ & TVNZ give half the broadcast rights to those opposition parties to allow them to broadcast their own public affairs shows but we now need this more than ever.

      I believe Labour are failing to penetrate the current media now and this showed today in the poll as Labour has some good policy now but no-one is hearing them so my plan must now be taken seriously PLEASE. ro

    • RESULTS OF THE TVNZ ONE POLL;

      MY THOUGHTS.

      The Media has played a large part of this now.

      We no longer now have ‘close-up’ and Paul Homes show ‘Homes’.

      Why don’t we have those hard hitting critical ‘current public affairs shows during the week now!!!!

      They used to show the cracks in the current administrative performance of this Government.

      Designed to allow critical mid weekly Investigative journalism assessments of provocative insights played a big part also in everything going on with Government

      No wonder we have voters now turned off to everything as there are no shows to provide thoughts on Government performance.

      I have repeatedly suggested on this excellent website of Martyn Bradbury for us to have a movement to get all the opposition parties to collectively demand the public media RNZ & TVNZ give half the broadcast rights to those opposition parties to allow them to broadcast their own public affairs shows but we now need this more than ever.

      I believe Labour are failing to penetrate the current media now and this showed today in the poll as Labour has some good policy now but no-one is hearing them so my plan must now be taken seriously PLEASE. ro

  26. Looking at the poll tonight Labour are in serious trouble. The support they have lost has seemingly moved over to the Greens who are on 15%, but at 24% Labour are in deep trouble. I’m wondering if their support is likely to fall another 2-3%, and I believe there is a serious risk of this, and meanwhile National continue to hold steady on 47% which is where have been more or less for nearly a decade. THe Labour leadership need to ask why their party has stubbornly remained 20ish points behind National for a decade

    • ” The Labour party leadership need to ask why their party has remained 20 points behind National for a decade ”

      ANSWER-

      Neo liberalism and fear.

    • Yes, it is a shocker, the Greens have after Metiria’s strong social policy re-positioning, and despite her admission of not telling social security services all about her flatmates, made significant gains, at the expense of Labour.

      Some of Labour’s traditional supporters appear to now consider the Greens to be more like what Labour once used to be like, and have changed their preferences.

      The Greens may also have attracted a few former non voters, to reach 15 percent in the poll of TVNZ.

      But this will not get Labour and Greens into government, by stealing votes from each other, they depend on NZ First for support, and therein lies a serious problem, as Winston may consider going with the Nats.

      The greatest worry is that the Nats stay around 47 percent, and that is the core lot of their voter base, the middle class property owners and professionals and business operators, who seem to do ok, or even well, with property prices stabilising at a high level, and with mass immigration providing willing cheap labour, that serves them in supermarkets, rest homes, horticulture, also as bus and taxi drivers, cleaners and workshop workers.

      As the MSM does not inform us of the whole truth, and tends to only look for weakness and faults with Labour, Greens and NZ First, National can lean back and smell the coffee.

      The missing million do not even follow the media and news that much, and on social media only some topics get discussed and spread, those first reported by the biased MSM.

      Hence no traction there, no gains of high enough numbers for the opposition, and the threat of a fourth term for National, that will destroy the rest of the social fabric in this country, pitting one against the other.

  27. I’m not casting an electoral vote here in Christchurch Central … I wouldn’t vote for Wagner or Webb, no way! Are the Greens still running a candidate after their last one pulled out?

    My party vote is going to TOP but I’ll happily give my electoral to anyone/thing other than National and Labour. I mean, paint a donkey green and I’ll vote for it … it’s a shame the Green’s have neglected Christchurch Central.

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