The decision to declare war on NZ First at the weekend as part of the Green Party election launch caught most political commentators and political parties by complete surprise.
I understand someone within the poor old Labour Party hierarchy actually banged his head on his desk when the news of this broke. Before I evaluate the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston, let’s remind ourselves of the brief history of NZ First and Green Party antagonism and how everyone suddenly learnt to count.
A brief history of NZ First – Green Party antagonism
We all know the major falling out in 2005 when Winston tripped the Greens out of Government by cutting a minority Government deal with Helen Clark. That was 12 years ago and the Greens radicalism was just too far outside the comfort zone of socially conservative NZ First.
The main driver of resentment from NZ First towards the Greens however happened much later in 2008. When Winston was being ripped to pieces for the Owen Glenn donations fiasco, it was Russell Norman’s tenacious questioning and constant attacks on Peters that truly poisoned the well of any good faith between NZ First and the Greens.
As is often the case for most political grudges the reason why Winston hated the Greens was personal, Russell Norman had embarrassed and shit upon Winston’s mana at a time when Norman thought Winston was on the ropes and he was serving up some Green Party payback for 2005.
Things didn’t get better until Norman left the Greens
Since then there has been a lot of effort by both parties to try and rebuild a relationship, Tracy Martin has been instrumental in this and when Shane Jones came back on board he was very careful to point out that his previous animosity towards the Greens shouldn’t be read as the way he sees them now.
There was a detente in place and while a NZ First-Labour minority Government was the most likely outcome for a change of Government in September, the supply and confidence deal with the Greens would have at least seen the Green leadership with Cabinet posts.
The Greens desire to launch open warfare on NZ First at their election launch however has turned that detente on its head.
Suddenly every political pundit and Party can count
I love how all of a sudden every political pundit and Party can count.
It’s a point TDB has been making for the last 3 months.
Labour + Green won’t = 51%.
So how do they get to 51%?
They need NZ First.
What will NZ First demand for that?
They will demand a NZ First-Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Greens for a few cabinet positions.
The obviousness of this dilemma, which. TDB. Has. Been. Pointing. Out. For. Three. Months, seems to have only sunk into the rest of the political echo chambers, so why don’t we just skip ahead to the points in the debate we’ve already covered so people can have a better idea of where things will end up?
This problem that Green + Labour wouldn’t = 51% was always going to be most challenging for the Greens because their liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world see the cross burning banjo twanging political freak show circus jamboree that is NZ First as an anathema to all they stand for. Once this activist base suddenly learned to count and realised they needed NZ First to change the Government all hell was always going to break loose.
The power of this liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world was on obvious display recently when the Greens self-flagellated themselves for daring to suggest sustainable immigration targets, something perfectly acceptable to environmental activists but unacceptable to cosmopolitan identity politic activists.
How the Greens were going to manage their middle class activists while NZ First whistled up the rhetoric was always going to be incredibly challenging and the Greens have decided that instead of managing their activists middle class pretensions, they’ll actual enflame and appeal directly to those middle class pretensions to ensure their activists vote.
It’s a fucking risky tactic that has all sorts of unforeseen consequences.
Evaluating the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston
To appreciate the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston you first have to understand that the Greens are now a middle class party and that the radical environmental activism has been replaced by middle class identity political values. Cosmopolitan migrant rights, intersectionist feminism, binary gender activism and trans rights are as large a driver of core values for the Greens as environmentalism is.
This middle classing of the Greens means the party resembles more of a university sorority glee club than the hippy rainbow warriors of old. These middle class identity politics activists despise what NZ First represents and for them, Metiria’s attack on Winston is going to go down better than peanut satay tofu at a suburban Kink munch mingle event.
But getting your activist base to the polls isn’t the only consideration in politics, it’s how you mend the fences after the election to build a possible Government that really matters in MMP, and Winston has shown with Russell Norman that he takes shit like this personally, so while the Greens might be able to inspire their liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world to the polls, what happens after the Polls close?
Before we get to those post election negotiations, just consider this. NZ First has waaaaaaaaay more to gain from open hostilities with the Greens than the Greens get from this declaration of war. NZ First are going deep into National Party provincial territory and making the Greens a political punching bag in those provinces will be golden for the Jonesy and Winston.
Previously NZ First would have had to have pulled those punches, but with an open declaration of hostilities you watch how the Jonesy and Winnie tag team an old fashioned beat down on the Greens.
The provinces NZ First are trying to take are ripe with fury at National but because Labour and the Greens are too culturally alienating to those voters, that frustration can only go Winston’s way – adding a Green Party smack down into that mix could horrifically pay massive dividends to NZ First.
So, how could this play out?
The middle class activist base rush to the Greens and heap scorn on NZ First and NZ First repay it with interest.
It keeps the Green Party vote up and they manage to get 11% but NZ First’s attacks on them bring in numbers from the provinces that easily allow them to leap frog the Greens and become the 3rd largest political party.
Winston remembers the Green attack and takes it personally and either shuts them out of a Labour/NZ First minority Government or he points to the Greens as impossible to work with and cuts a deal with National.
Meanwhile, outside the twitter Wellington bubble world, voters see the Greens as divisive, not interested in working together to change the Government and could be ultimately blamed for a 4th term National Government.
The negatives of declaring war on NZ First seem to outweigh the small positive of picking up more millennial middle class voters. I don’t want to say that the Greens have a staffing issue when this is the tactical strategy they adopt because I’ve been saying that for 3 years now, but seriously, once the dust settles after the election, some heads have to roll.
Before the Green Party election launch I would have said that a change of Government was on the cards and that change would have been a Labour-NZ First minority Government with supply and confidence to the Greens in exchange for 2 Cabinet positions, after the Green Party election launch I honestly can’t call it now.
PS – I write all of this as someone who has voted Green my entire adult life and would never ever ever ever ever vote NZ First.
Let me try some of my head canon.
Campaign strategy like that are NOT about science, they’re only meant to cause polarization and create a stupid yes-or-no scenario which inhibits any further reasonable thinking.
I didn’t mean anything else with my comment but point out a REALLY important detail about the over-simplified statement of the Green Rush. I like science, and I hate it when things are put in a manner which draws incorrect conclusions. Even if it should be humorous. That politics is just war by other means, but not knowledge. I’m pretty sure “Scarlet Mod” too, but using a blunt simplification (ignoring that detail) to create more radicalization between people is NOT good. Sadly, it’s in the interest of some twitterites – just to get a few clicks more. Hope that’s not the case here.
Let me try it again, because you all care (EDIT, I misspelled) to comment (I’m ignoring the mansplaining here): if The Greens get a shot i.m., you SKIP the barriers to entry, clearing state houses, regulators, and put those regulative bodies directly into monetary policy, maybe triggering some brokered deals which get caught in the way. You see there is a small difference? 😉
There must be a reason why regulators are not in direct contact with law enforcement, right?
The point is: “triggering” powers of arrest is not the same via State housing sell offs, regulators. Monetary policy makers is FAR more complex than that, besides not working the way most people put it – it doesn’t function like a weak/strong-mechanism.
Again: this is oversymplifying. And even if, Social Darwinism, there is a parsimony principle, it should not be misused in psychology.
So… how do I find out what this attack actually was?
Winston has appeal to those of us living in what you contemptuously call “the provinces”, outside of the Auckland-centric corpus that this column substantially represents, or the Wellington twitterati that you describe above.
You were very opposed to this (forced) Auckland ‘Supercity – for the 1%’ Martyn.
Did you know of the pivotal role played by Deputy Leader of NZ First Ron Mark, in helping to stop the proposed Wellington ‘Supercity’?
Penny Bright
+100 PENNY BRIGHT
You point out that Labour needs NZ First.
So will National, if current polls are correct.
I believe this will be another incentive for NZ First to go with National, if they are in the kingmaker position.
Forget about the Winston anti-National rhetoric that you will hear during the campaign.
After the votes are counted, it won’t mean s…t!
Winston will go to whoever offers him the best deal, and odds-on it will be National.
3 things-
1 The Greens have always been a middle class party, their distaste for the confrontational style of Sue Bradford always seemed clear to me as an outsider (who has sometimes voted Green but never joined since they left the Alliance). So they are not changing in that crucial respect.
2 You do not have to get 51%, because first of all the ‘wasted votes’ are deducted, and secondly there is the proven possibility of minority government. This is meaningfully available to whichever is larger, National or Labour+Greens.
3 There will NOT be a change of government unless Labour’s party vote increases. (If NZF gets more party vote than National I might be wrong about that, but isn’t that a long shot?)
Metiria needs to satisfy the party faithful by publically creating distance from Winston, and nzfirst voters will appreciate it too.
Yeah he will go with National same as last time when he kept us waiting 6 weeks for his decision. Can he beat that number of weeks this time?
Last time Winston was in Govt he went with Labour. took 6 weeks for a decision in 1996 because Labour REFUSED to go into coalition with NZF. Just as it was PETER DUNNE in 2005 who refused to go into Govt. with the Greens, how many times have I pointed this out to you Bomber? and yet you still get it wrong and perpetuate this lie. I am so fucked off with NZ and it’s fuckwit pollies I am seriously considering not voting.
I have no idea where you got that from, Shona. It’s simply untrue. Labour needed NZ First to form a coalition, and the Alliance gave a written undertaking to guarantee Supply & Confidence.
Whatever information you have been given is not correct.
Got my info from Winston.
+100…ha ha very good summary post Martyn Bradbury…even some Labour Party voters I know are mad at Metiria and the Greens ( the Greens have become way too ‘holier than thou’)
and …far from being spuriously dismissed and condemned as a racist party by the Greens … actually NZF has very good policies and a damned good website:
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/policies
1.) youth and education policies
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/education
2.)… transport policies
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/transport
3.)…environmental conservation policies
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/environment_and_conservation
4.)… housing
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/housing
5.)… immigration
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/immigration
6.)…outdoor recreation
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/outdoor_recreation
7.)…primary industries
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/primary_industries
8.)…senior citizens and superannuation
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/senior_citizens
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/superannuation
9.)…electricity and power
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/electricity_and_power
10) …social development
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/social_development
11)… economic plan
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/economic_plan
12) …law and order
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/law_and_order
13.) …Maori Affairs
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/maori_affairs
14…finance and tax
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/finance_and_tax
15. )…foreign affairs and trade
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/foreign_affairs_and_trade
16.)…defence and verterans affairs
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/defence
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/veterans_affairs
17.)…broadcasting
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/broadcasting_and_ict
18.)…justice
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/justice
19.)…local government
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/local_government
20)…health
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/health
21)… labour and employement
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/labour_and_employment
( Winston for Prime Minister !)
1000% RED BUZZARD, Bloody brilliant!!!!!!!!
If the Greens don’t do well this election I think it will be the James Shaw who has to carry the greatest responsibility because all the major blunders have come since he became leader. I think Metiria will be a casualty too, partly simply because she has been the female co-leader for so long. I expect a grass roots movement within the party to push other MPs to stand in the next annual election of the co-leaders.
Whatever the motivations for this, and however well intentioned, it is a step backwards.
It simply adds to the right’s narrative that the alternative govt. on offer will be an unstable, unworkable alliance.
National will be laughing all the way to their 4th term.
Look it’s great to make judgments on others. We in comfortable middle class existence can say all of that. Yes, some NZ First peeps say some awful things. But to me thats not the election issue. Nor is Andrews popularity or the Labour billboards, or any of the media hyped shite. What matters are the millions of workers who are currently having crimes against them committed every day ; with millions of dollars owed to them by corporates and held up by our very slow justice system. Bottom line, if a worker can’t make a living, is subject to the whims of the boss, and dependent on the state for inadequate rights, we will see declining incomes, greater corporate wealth and increase social dislocation. It all starts with work : only Labour so far has any kind of solution.
If NZF surpasses the Greens, which looks inevitable because of the “provincial leanings”, then I would welcome a Labour/NZF govt with Green s+d as a preference to 3 more years of National. Imo this is about the only hope we have left on current trends.
This tells me more about the Kiwi voter than it does about the shit they choose to represent them.
The constant pinning of the blame for this and that deplorable state of politics on the politicians overlooks one basic important fact. It is the drooling cretins who vote that enable this situation to exist and to persist.
The ballot box is the final arbiter. You get the government you deserve. And I’m afraid you really do deserve shit.
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