3 months out from 2017 election – National in danger, Labour dependent on ground game, Greens self-flagellating, NZ First turbo charging

By
Martyn Bradbury
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43
5

3 months out from a General Election and the list of issues that our political class and corporate media are avoiding this month are…

…it’s almost as if the Middle Classes who are property investors don’t care as long as they can get another 5% in untaxed capital gain and those desperately just trying to get by don’t have the time or energy to engage while the mainstream media go on a hysterical feeding frenzy over Labour’s International Interns who were framed in a negative light.

Meanwhile Winston purrrrrrs.

 

Political Party Challenges:

NATIONAL – current poll of polls 47.5%

Wow. What a month! Out of no where, Bill English was body slammed by the Todd Barclay revelations and the shock of how poorly he handled the barrage of questions left many asking if Bill English was going to do a Theresa May and meltdown in the heat of the actual campaign.

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And I’d argue that’s a very real possibility. English can’t lie down the barrel of the camera the way Key could and the weakness and shifty squint eyed responses English gives are so cringeworthy that you’re forced to avert your eyes its so ghastly.

Hillary Barry beat him up for 8 minutes on Breakfast TV. It was the worst political interview I’ve ever seen by a Prime Minister.

There ain’t nothin like Hillary Barry in full journalist attack mode.

The Police have re-opened the Barclay investigation so it gives credibility to the whole sordid affair.

National benefitted from the poll being taken while the mainstream media were describing the budget as a ‘family friendly left wing’ budget. The real criticism and Barclay fiasco haven’t been taken into account yet.

The Housing Crisis keeps highlighting the emptiness of National’s vision.

The National Party are also now in a dilemma. The dichotomy of the National Party is that they preach small business morality but pass legislation for big business interests. This frustration is reaching boiling point in the North Island provinces who see they provide the economic muscle for bugger all infrastructure investment.

Those voters are rushing towards NZ First.

If National lean back towards the provinces while Auckland is gridlocked Auckland votes will be at risk.

The female vote that National have had under Key is up for grabs by Labour’s secret campaign weapon, Jacinda Ardern.

The factions within National will start to panic if National’s Party vote slips to 43%.

Watch Judith Collins.

 

LABOUR – current poll of polls 26.9%

 

The only kind thing that can be said about the Labour Party this month was that when the intern story broke they immediacy owned up and dealt with it.

The way they handled it gave them mana, and it cauterised the issue.

The underlying problem of needing to excite youth voters remains unsolved and Labour’s lack of visionary Left policy continues unchallenged.

Last week Winston Peters announced writing off students loans if they stayed in NZ for 5 years. That’s actually secret Labour party policy and by holding it back they’ve allowed Winston to steal some of their thunder, but if Labour repeat it, it will have far greater impact and give Labour a huge lift amongst Tertiary students.

If Labour announce a new way to wipe student loan debt, it would change the result of the election.

With the rise of NZ First in the Provinces, Labour look like they will be a mainly urban based party, which can work in their favour if they drum in a 2 tick strategy.

I think Labour’s secret weapon on the campaign trail is going to be Jacinda who shoulder to shoulder with Andrew is going to provide a style of collective leadership that voters are yearning for.

If Labour win Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, they change the government.

Their worker rights reforms were mild and their restrictions on foreign students gained support but ultimately hurt by the perception of the Interns.

Labour’s success rests on their ability to turn out the urban areas, it will be their ground game that will gets them over 30%.

As NZ First’s popularity climbs, the important relationships with Winston that MPs like Stuart Nash, David Parker, Kelvin Davis and Willie Jackson have will become vital for Labour to get anything done in a Labour-NZ First minority Government.

GREENS – current poll of polls 12.2%

The ritualistic self-flagellation of the Greens last month for daring to suggest a sustainable population cap was an environmentally justifiable response to the constant dynamics of growth was a public step away from the Greens as an activist environmental party and its final transformation into a middle class identity politics movement.

Whether the academic activist electorate is currently maxed out or is waiting to vote on mass is yet to be seen but arguing the interests of those who recently arrive should impede the interests of those who are already living here is a huge jump to make for an environmental party who once saw population control as the unspoken truth within sustainability.

For those with the class skills to maximise free market globalisation, migrant rights are a new holy grail of cosmopolitan etiquette on par with binary gender dynamics, intersectional feminism and correct pronoun micro aggressions.

Pitching directly for this well educated and smart new electorate makes sense as TOP erode the cannabis vote and Labour and NZ First start sounding like racist old family members drunk at Christmas dinner.

The challenge will be how they manage NZ First’s cross burning electoral barnstorming. The new generation of candidates are going to have to do all the heavy lifting in terms of media coverage as James Shaw is a very mediocre campaigner and Metiria has been missing in action.

 

 

NZ FIRST – current poll of polls 9.2%

Matthew Hooton keeps braying to anyone who will listen that NZ First are going to have a huge win this year, and he’s right, they are, but he always follows that up with the claim Labour are going to be the casualty of this gain.

I think he’s utterly wrong there.

Winston’s success in Northland and Jones candidacy in Whangarei speaks to something else entirely.

The rupture between the provinces and Auckland isn’t just economic, it’s cultural.

Look at the careful wording Jones has used to date. Mentioning politically correct and talking openly about speaking to issues that  make people feel uncomfortable is the full on cultural confrontation that the provinces are demanding.

The very snide elite opinion on display interviewing Jones on TV3’s The Nation is the exact thing the provinces are rebelling against, but the seeds of that discontent is with National voters, not Labour ones.

Labour with Jacinda are aiming at the urban centres where the type of bloke folksy routine Jones spins is an anathema, but it is National Party voters who are most hungry for change.

They don’t see National progressing their concerns, they don’t see their infrastructure invested in, they don’t see their interests progressed, just big business mates of the Government.

Look at the recent stuff survey looking at voter attitudes. While not scientific because people selected to participate, it did have almost 40 000 participate. The most interesting part of that poll was just how frustrated male National voters  are with the Party.

This frustration feels no home with Labour or the Greens as they represent the very cultural elitism that alienates these voters. To these voters the Greens and Labour can’t decide if they are Arthur or Martha and if they could decide would spend the next 12 months arguing over pronoun use.

In Shane Jones and Winston Peters this simmering resentment deep within the North Island provinces against lazy slack National MPs who have time served their existence through to double chinned backbench impotency is ready to explode.

A change of Government is now a real possibility.  I think NZ First will leap frog to the 3rd largest party at the downfall of National and the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with Green Party supply and confidence for Cabinet Positions.

Shane Jones is NZs truest Donald Trump and Muddle Nu Zilind will lap the Jonesy up like a prodigal son returned from making it big in Sydney.

Low horizons on a flat earth.

Stuart Nash will be weeping into his pillow watching his plans for a Provincial Labour revival evaporate to NZ First .

Winston Peters could well be the next Prime Minister.

 

MAORI PARTY – current poll of polling 1%

Marama Fox received severe blowback over her comments regarding students living like slave labour when the reality suggests the issue was overblown. Fox was left beached when the tide of indignation turned.

Cleverly they have cut a deal with Pacific Island groups in an attempt to raise their Party vote, but these types of alliances require far more genuine time than this hastily thrown together one.

It has all the feeling of a Plan B after they ran out of Maori candidates.

The Maori Party should be higher than they are polling if they want to ensure Fox is returned off the Party List.

 

UNITED FUTURE – current polling 0.1%

Surprise, surprise all of a sudden Peter Dunne is making all sorts of soothing words about drug reform. Watch him forget all those words the bloody second the election is over. Greg O’Connor still drawing a lot of attention. O’Connor has been doing far better than anyone expected on the local issues.

 

ACT – current polling 1%

What the bloody hell is this photo about? Is it ACT’s small Government policy? Is this the future of user pays transport under an ACT Government? Is this how unionists will be punished once Seymour becomes the Minister for Labour?

The Greens have out manoeuvred his attempt to portray himself as the only Party for migrants so his ace card to get another MP in off the Party List is fading.

 

TOP – current polling .4%

Have made Mika their Auckland Central candidate, clever move. Social media campaign and press releases have lifted their profile and the meetings are being hugely attended.

Lots of anecdotal, ‘I’m thinking about voting for TOP’ comments from people across the political spectrum.

Will continue to surprise, needs a way to enter the election debates or will get drowned out.

 

MANA – current polling .2%

I have a lot of time for Hone, he’s a great bloke, but his call to execute Chinese P Dealers was so far off the mark it’s difficult to come back from.

A statement like that just made his fight with Kelvin far harder to win.

 

The biggest indicator for a genuine desire for change came earlier this year from two Horizon Polls.

The first is how there is a change of sentiment amongst the 2014 and 2017 electorate…

…in the 2014 election, 56% wanted a National led Government, this time 54% want a Labour led Government. That’s a clear signal for change. The second interesting thing is that 77% of NZ First voters want a Labour led Government…

…if NZ First does hold the balance of power, their own members overwhelmingly want  Labour to lead the Government. The caveat to that is NZ First are about to drag in a large number of National voters this time around.

My conclusion 3 months out is the same I had last month, I think the 2017 election will be close and won on the margins, but if there is a change of Government, the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with the Greens in supply and confidence for a couple of Ministry positions.

Second likeliest outcome is National with a NZ First coalition Government

But, that turns around if National don’t take a hit in the next round of Polls. If National remain high, one would have to start saying it will be most likely a National Party + ACT + Maori Party  Government.

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43 COMMENTS

  1. “The female vote that National have had under Key is up for grabs by Labour’s secret campaign weapon, Jacinda Ardern.”

    ..erm, why exactly?

    I guess I don’t really know any female Key fans, but what would turn a Key voter into a Jacinda voter…policy? Hoteness? a latent pony tale fetish? their secret unfulfilled desire to join the International Union of Socialist Youth?
    I don’t know…but it almost sounds like an insult.

    • Upon Helen Clark’s departure, John Key’s unerring charm claimed the female vote.
      John Key is now PM ‘no more’ – B’linguish just ‘don’t fit’ the Bill.

      Jacinda Ardern is power in a velvet glove! Females are ‘power junkies.’

  2. Interesting how many of these parties are driven by a single male. It illustrates how male oriented politics in New Zealand still is. What chance would there be that a woman could start up her own party an get almost all its support on her own. Presently we have Winston Peters, Peter Dunne, David Seymour, Hone Harawira and Gareth Morgan.

  3. “English can’t lie down the barrel of the camera the way Key could”

    What a very sad indictment on the state of New Zealand voters this fact is!

  4. We’re getting “three more years” of National, whether we like it or not (not in my case). Because they will be BY FAR the biggest party, National will be the only party with anything approaching having won the “popular vote” and will quickly cut a deal with NZF or maybe TOP and that will be that. Very similar to the British election (despite a very different election system).

    • If NZ First does coalesce with National, post 23 September, I’m wondering if The Daily Blog will be so welcoming of pro-NZ First blogposts from it’s activists? NZ First would become a National-aligned party, akin to ACT, Maori Party, and United Future/Peter Dunne. Maybe I’m wrong, but I haven’t seen too many articles from National-aligned parties on TDB.

      • NZF will imo go with National, because NZF is just not going to cut a deal with the Greens. And without the Greens Labour just won’t get there (even with NZF support). So the only feasible government is National+NZF, assuming National doesn’t get 50% outright, which very well may happen. Peters is basically NZ’s answer to Trump – a right-wing xenophobic populist. The only reason he hasn’t mentioned a wall yet is because we are an island nation.

    • If what you say is true, it will be because the Nats have bought and bribed there way to winning, not because of policy. Appeasing a certain ethnic vote by allowing appalling foreign purchasing of houses, will be a winner for them. The immigration vote will go their way. What we need is for the shallow hobbit to start to realise that the good economic benefits are not being shared equally, despite Bullshit Bill saying otherwise and vote this nasty lot out. We can no longer sit and watch the like of Bullshit Bennett, pull the ladder from underneath her. Vile , vile, vile, time for change.

      Anyone else see the similarities with this link and Bennett…

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/94354641/new-jersey-governor-chris-christie-enjoyed-a-closed-beach-then-got-flamed

  5. The National party WILL be the LARGEST PARTY after the general election and WILL be in a position to lead the next government and Winston will do a deal that enshrines his legacy and will be sold as a deal for ” stability “

  6. National may well be the largest party after the elections but with a minority support. Winston has tried to work with National in coalition as a government and that did not work out so well.I think there is some deep seated bad blood between National and New Zealand 1st and it would be fool hardy for Winston to be associated with National.
    Winston’s most valued contribution to the electorate has been his actions in opposition and his time as minister of foreign affairs with the Labour coalition ,he may well see the Labour/Greens as a legitimate democratic government in waiting and supporting National may will be political suicide for New Zealand 1st considering the long standing social woes that National seem indifferent to.

    • Whilst I agree. The only policy the Greens have even got over the line was with National (The Housing Insulation Scheme).

      So why are they hell bent on ONLY doing a deal with Labour, as the past has shown that it has been National not Labour that has provided them with political wins.

      • I equally agree,the Greens seem to be prostituting themselves to be part of a government at pretty much any cost to their ideals .
        Maybe they see themselves as a Jiminy Cricket keeping Labour on theme.
        It does look a bit disparate.

  7. Equating a pro-immigration view that wants a smaller number, as opposed to neo-colonial levels of immigration as racist, xenophobic or anti-immigration, without considering the view itself, is demonstrably false, and a perfect example of the “Left” losing its way by not adhering to national class politics.

    The Chinese dictatorship accepted the smallest number of migrants last year (ONE), so accordingly, Bomber, China is the most racist country on the planet?

    • +100 CASTRO

      …and Andrew Little is on to a winner when he advocates for New Zealand youth being absolutely the first in priority entitlement for jobs, education , housing ! ( NZF would agree with this!)

      New Zealand youth are our future…we must protect and look after them…overseas workers, students , immigrants are NOT our priority!…especially when they are taking away the dreams and rights of our NZ youth

      New Zealand socio- economic well-being and mental health statistics (eg poverty, housing , suicide, crime) for New Zealand youth , particularly Maori youth are terrible…this Nact Government should be called out on undermining New Zealand youth, their hopes and their future….the Nacts policies are treacherous in their attitudes to the rights and well-being of NZ’s youth

      • Yep. After 9 years of what National have dished out, there’s no shame in saying we’re putting everyone else on hold while we attend to a much needed rebalancing.

    • Most crossing our borders will vote blue, why do you think the Nats are not wanting to change the immigration policy? I’ts a vote winner.

      As for China, they probably are too full, a little like N.Z. and Auckland, wouldn’t you say?

  8. National are hard right but pretend they’re centrist. Why, because the voting public are thicker than pig shit.

    It is beneath many Kiwis to take even the most scant bit of interest in politics, too hard, too weird. Who cares is the prevailing attitude. And for many the interest simply does not exist at all, their world so limited that voting never crosses their feeble minds!

    This is what Labour face. That combined with the corporate media’s jaundiced political narrative makes it bloody difficult to gain traction on most things. When your left supporters are putting the boot in who needs enemies with friends like that?.

    There is a dedicated group of “journalists” whose every prose is based upon the current National Party script, Watkins, Young, O’Sullivan, Soper, HDPA, Gower, Garner and of course Hosking. There is entire radio stations and daily newspapers dedicated to the wealthy cause.

    To connect maybe Labour need a larger than life front man who says it like it is, who has the look and the wit. Sounds shallow but that is the voting gene pool we are dealing with!

    So pretend to be centrist but be hard left

    • yep i agree you have to act now to win in politics. This is exactly what labour needs to do. Just look at some of the things JK said befor winning the 2008 election. Then look at the policies implemented perfect case in point.

  9. A couple of OncewasTim brain farts.
    The first is that the National Party of today is NOTHING like that of old when Winnie (and his bro) were participants. I’ve never been a suppota but it used to have a few in its ranks with principle and conviction to things like democracy and public representation (no matter how deluded those principles may or may not have been). Winston realised he didn’t fit when the neolib religion started to bite along with its culture of greed is good.
    The second brain fart is that Winnie is driven by issues surrounding sovereignty, corruption and tradition.
    The trouble is (like Shane shane – james James hold the ladder steady) he has a bloody big ego and ambition.
    In Winnie’s case it’s come with age. In Shane’s it’s that he was always an egotistical pratt based on his awareness of a superior IQ to that of ya evridge

  10. MARTYN said;

    “I think NZ First will leap frog to the 3rd largest party at the downfall of National and the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with Green Party supply and confidence for Cabinet Positions.”

    Yes and many disgruntled Nactional swing voters will defect to Winston also and this will be Nactional’s downfall certainly.

    Just hear the interview on RNZ today with “No show Tolley” over the mess at Matata nearby the Whakatane region (her elecetorate) and Suzie Ferguson was grilling her for in-action, shit it was good.

    Suzie wound Anne Tolley up so tight with her bullshit & lies, that Anne Tolley angrily said to Suzie; “Don’t Goad me”

    I knew her in Napier in 2002 when she was a Napier city Councillor and National candidate after that.

    She failed us all in Napier then, as she has now done to the people of Gisborne who call her “No show Tolley”.

    These in-effective, misguided politicians are going to be why Nactional will loose.

  11. Two reasons why I don’t trust NZ First.
    1. I remember during the 1996 general election campaign how Winston spent most of his time telling the electorate how National were virtually the devil incarnate, then he goes into government with them!
    2. You rarely see any costings of NZ First policies. It is fine to promise all things to everyone but it all costs money and Winston doesn’t like to tell us how much it will cost or where the money will come from.
    Winston is long on puffery, short on specifics.

    • Shit left,

      Any party can easily find some savings using nactional’s own budgeting, by not so much spending on taxpayer money for Hollywood movie companies, or flags, or plastic expensive boat races, just for a start here!!!!

      Then go onto the insane $13 billion Nactional are shelling out of another taxpayer funding for just a double laning of Hamilton to Tauranga road for trucks!!!!!

      They could’ve spent just $3 Billion upgrading rail to do that job!!!!

      Then use the other $10 billion for what we all really need.

      I have only scratched the surface here.

    • worth repeating that if you watch the Helen Clark documentary you will find the evidence and reasons why Winston Peters NZF did not go with Labour after trying as his first choice….Labour and NZF did not have the numbers together ( Jim Anderton pissed off with Roger Douglas Labour and the sale of State Assets would not cooperate)

      Winston was faced with a calling another General Election ( most unpopular ! and could have destroyed his Party) or going with Jim Bollger with NO more State Assets sales as a bottom line (and a few other things NZF wanted eg Gold Card) Jim Bolger stuck to his word of the agreement but was rolled by Jenny Shipley …who then set about more sales of State Assets…hence betraying NZF….so Peters walked away and brought down the National Government….no one hates Wnston more than the Nacts ( although the Greens often seem to come a close second)

    • To be fair MlL….he has made clear his intentions re the regions, and as CG has noticed, a commitment to rail.
      On the latter, I’m trying to work out how he might receive the Greens and Labour’s latest re Light Rail to AKL airport.
      All ok as long as you realise it’s an interim solution to solve passenger (ONLY) GRIDLOCK..
      (AKL is a regional port accommodating passengers and freight from the regions – something I’m not sure even the muddle class latte supper Transport Blog controbutors

  12. NZ First should make a big push in all those regional seats where National are waning but Labour can’t win. Their voters are smart enough to know what to do…

    • Gisborne is ripe for this!!!

      National sitting MP Anne Tolley is one that needs to be dumped.!!!!!!

    • Matata mess 12 years later still not solved.?????

      IS THIS NATIONAL’S IDEA OF “A BRIGHTER FUTURE?????

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201849931
      “Hang on don’t get cross with me” said Anne Tolley to RNZ journalist.

      Ms Tolley said the district council was working through a plan and had spent a lot of time and money investigating the possibility of mitigation.
      “In the meantime it unfortunately allowed … people to rebuild their houses.”
      Some residents were prepared to be bought out and leave, and some had lived there all their lives and wanted to take the risk and stay.
      As the local MP she had met with local residents, whose relationship with the council had been “rather fragile”.
      “I’ve been trying to get answers to questions for them and push the process along, so that they can get some closure, and make sure that those people who do decide they want to take the risk and want to stay there aren’t going to be bulldozed out.”
      “Everyone accepts that this could happen again” – Anne Tolley duration6′ :19″
      from Morning Report

      “Everyone accepts that this could happen again” – Anne Tolley
      Ms Tolley said the council could not afford to pay for a “managed withdrawal” and was putting its case to the regional council and government.
      ‘We did everything legally and got the OK to build’
      Locals told Checkpoint with John Campbell they were furious at being asked to leave 12 years later.
      Marilyn said she rebuilt a bigger home in Matata two years after the flood because she was told the flood risk would be mitigated.
      “We did everything legally and got the OK to build because they were going to mitigate the risk.”
      She said she would have gone then if someone had asked her to, and paid her out accordingly.
      “We wouldn’t have sunk all our money back into this if we knew this was where it was going to end.

  14. Bomber! For God’s sake, stop using that dumb photo of Andrew Little – you’re just playing into National’s hands!

  15. Andrew Little has stated that his first phone call will be to the Green party, then NZFirst. I see him sticking to that.

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