Latest Roy Morgan Poll highlights threat to National, Maori Party & Greens

By   /   April 29, 2017  /   39 Comments

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Good to see Tracy Watkins a full 3 weeks behind The Daily Blog in appreciating the role NZ First plays in the 2017 election. Once she catches up on how this impacts the rest of the political spectrum, Stuff will almost start providing the same level of political analysis TDB does a month after TDB does it.

Good to see Tracy Watkins a full 3 weeks behind The Daily Blog in appreciating the role NZ First plays in the 2017 election. Once she catches up on how this impacts the rest of the political spectrum, Stuff will almost start providing the same level of political analysis TDB does a month after TDB does it.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll highlights the powerful position Winston now occupies in the political spectrum and how his rise will impact the other parties will expose the fault lines that run through Parliament.

Winston’s angry message on immigration and the need for economic sovereignty will never have a more fertile or ripe environment and he will unleash an anti-immigration rhetoric to match that new heaving political landscape.

NZ First in the last 3 elections jump up due to a late collapse in the Labour vote, this time however I think the vote collapse will come from National.

Here’s how a rising NZ First impacts the other Political players.

National: Don Brash’s cross burning roadshow has attracted huge numbers in provincial NZ and the Pakeha Pied Piper of Hatesville has been telling these frightened provincial crackers that the Maori bogeyman have magical new powers under the RMA and is telling them to vote for Winston. The provinces feel marginalised and forgotten by National, they haven’t had the promised infrastructure upgrades and their fear of a Brown Planet is all Winston needs to rob National of enough vote for them to dip under 40%

Labour: Andrew Little has inoculated Labour with their cut in immigration plan and there has been real behind the scenes efforts to build strong relationships between the Labour leadership and Winston. The likeliest change of Government sees Labour + NZ First with Greens providing supply and confidence for a few Ministerial positions so the ability for Labour + NZ First to work together is essential for any change of Government. Andrew will still push back on Winston’s more inflammatory rhetoric, (you saw him do that this week with Winston’s insane connecting of Journalists ethnicity with the article they wrote) but not so much that it burns any bridges with NZ First. If Andrew can’t cut a deal with Winston and win the Government benches in September, he’ll see a challenge to his leadership so he’s at a sink or swim moment.

Greens: NZ First poses a real existential threat to the Greens, if they leap frog the Greens, they suddenly become the 4th largest party and they lose the moral authority for Labour to offer them anything more than supply and confidence. The real threat to the Greens will be keeping their own twitter army from ripping them to pieces if those Emerald Stormtroopers don’t see Green MPs denouncing Winston’s looming rhetoric in strong enough terms. The Greens know Winston takes attacks personally and the more they criticise, the less likely they are get a good deal in post election negotiations.

Maori Party: To get those Provincial votes, Winston will make banning the Maori Party from any Government a bottom line, once he does this the Maori Party will struggle to find relevance.

Whether the twitter elite in NZ like it or not, Winston is the key to a change of Government.

 

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39 Comments

  1. Mike in Auckland says:

    Early days yet, I would say, as NZ politics always brings up sudden surprises, even if trivial ones, they do sometimes lead to noticeable changes in the polls. A little scandal can create this scenario, a sudden trend in whatsoever, an unexpected major change overseas, be this an escalation in Korea, a Len Pen win in the French presidential elections, a marked defeat of Trump in one of his pet projects, a terror attack in a major western city, there are many factors that can still come to play.

    • Doug says:

      Expect the herald a national to come up with another wine bottle donation sorry to try and energy Andrew little

  2. Otto Mann says:

    NZers who support Peters don’t seem to have learned a hell of a lot from that moron in the White House. Oh well, at least Peters can’t provoke WW3 like Trump is about to.

  3. CLEANGREEN says:

    What a great spyglass of the future direction we need to go to Martyn..

    NZ First has a common theme flowing through all their communications, and that is “Common sense policies”

    http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/

    “New Zealand First is not afraid to confront Parliament head on and we refuse to accept defeat in any cause we believe in.”

    This is vision that no-one else is saying so we will see the Wellington cesspool of lobbying and bribery going out the door and real politicians working for the people and not just for themselves as the current system is doing as the parliament is rife with corruption that must cease!!!!!!

    Welcome home Winston.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      ‘ Welcome home Winston.’
      ………………………………………………

      Indeed. My only hope is that Winston can keep cool and work with the Greens. And I believe he can and will.

      And in doing so we will see the end of the accident prone and financially incompetent Bill English led National party. And they will be out of power for a very , very long time until such time as they import another liar like John Key.

      But by then the damage will have been done to their far right wing ,Mont Pelerin Society inspired neo liberalism and no one will want to see a return to that destructive era.

      • Jack Ramaka says:

        NZF Winston and Ron Mark have to swallow some pride and make sure we have a Labour/NZF or a Labour/NZF/Greens coalition another 3 years of NACT doesn’t bear thinking about.

      • Jack Ramaka says:

        NZF Winston and Ron Mark have to swallow some pride and make sure we have a Labour/NZF or a Labour/NZF/Greens coalition another 3 years of NACT doesn’t bear thinking about.

  4. Marshall Gass says:

    NZF is a one- man show. Where are the others who support him in parliament. Just little rat-like squeaks.
    Has anyone thought of what will happen if Winston goes down? There is nobody with common sense or strategy to take on his role. Do we want just one man making a stand for the whole country in these troubled time.
    Don Brash is a much better bet at this time.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Don Brash is a Mont Pelerin Society stooge , whereas Winston Peters isn’t and is instead a nationalist . Hence the title – NZ First.

      ……………………………………………

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

      ‘ Back in the 2005 New Zealand General election, the leader of the National Party was the former Reserve Bank governor, Don Brash who had been introduced to politics by Roger Kerr of the Business Roundtable. Don Brash was looked on as a rather honest if naive politician but was ousted when leaked emails showed he had dealings with a group of Exclusive Brethren Millionaires who were waging a campaign against the Greens even though he denied he had. In a speech in London in 1996, Don Brash said “I was involved with Roger Douglas from the beginning of the reforms …and they were never completed. ‘

  5. mosa says:

    Winston always talks to the largest party after the general election and that’s National ahead of Labour by 12.5 percentage points with this poll.

    Labour has to take votes from the National party to increase its party share and dominate as the largest party as it did in 1999-2008.

    The positive in this poll shows National dropping finally and we need to see that trend continue in the next five months.

    To get that endorsement of authority Labour must lift its support and command a majority in the parliament that will last three years and beyond because it will have major legislation to push through if they are to change this countries direction.

  6. Leftist says:

    I think NZ First is going to surge this year and become not just kingmaker, but lead with a huge number of MPs. Good, because l too like common sense and the Greens are too PC and weird.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      I want to see a Labour led govt with BOTH the Greens and NZ First.

      Its high time the Greens were able to get in there and start kicking some butt , – and a reformed anti neo liberal / Mont Pelerin Society Labour party under Andrew Little is what this country needs. NZ First are nationalists and its high time there was a new surge of nationalism in this country.

      And ironically – that surge of ‘ nationalism’ would only be a mild one. So mild in fact , – it would merely take us back to pre 1984 levels before the globalists subverted our country.

    • Jack Ramaka says:

      Agree NZF will become a major party in NZ people have woken up and have had enough B/S.

    • ropata says:

      Could be a real possibility, everyone (outside the professional elites and parasites) is pissed off with the status quo parties. I hope Winston causes the Nats to self destruct, as they richly deserve.

  7. Peter Sumpter says:

    Winston refuses to say who he will support. So anyone who votes NZ First is effectively letting Winston choose the next government on their behalf because they have no preference. Iñ the past he has always gone with the party with the most votes, which polling suggests will be National..
    The only way to change the government is to vote for one of the two parties committed to changing the Government.

  8. Castro says:

    NZ is experiencing colonisation, not immigration; seriously, sell any and all property you own, go compete for a minimum wage job and let the realisation dawn on you that, should you even make it to 67 years old, you will be living in a fucking dumpster while the children of foreign crime families zoom past you in fucking Ferraris. The backlash to this neo-colonialism, if not democratic, is going to be blood in the fucking streets.

    • Red Buzzard says:

      +100 CASTRO

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      ” NZ is experiencing colonisation, not immigration ,”

      …………………………………………..

      I am inclined to agree with that statement entirely. And this is what you get when you allow far right wing neo liberal politicians to degrade and pass legislation that permits the globalists agenda of unplanned and unregulated ‘multiculturalism’ and immigration policy’s.

      A recent website that covers this exact situation , who was and is behind it and just what their motives are for doing so is here :

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

  9. Andrew says:

    Yes, it’s likely Winston will do well this year, but do you really think he’d form a coalition that includes the crazies in the Greens?

    If he got enough votes, would he split the Labour / Green coalition?

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Of course not.

      Then he’d be right back in the middle benches again.

      You seem to forget Peters is no particular friend of neo liberals either.Which basically spells doom for National whichever way you try to cut it.

  10. garibaldi says:

    Take a very close look at NZF before giving them your vote.
    How well is Winston? Huge question mark over how long he can foot it.
    Who is on his List? Remember his last bunch of cowboys? For example would you class the likes of Winston, Ron Marks and Shane Jones as Progressives? Who else will coat tail in on a high election result?
    History shows he will back the party with the highest vote( ie the Natz).
    I still maintain you cannot trust NZF.

  11. Mike in Auckland says:

    What must be noted is the fact, that Winston Peters has reached an age, where it starts showing some limitations, just watch him carefully when he asks questions during Question Time in Parliament.

    This general election will be the very last one that he will contest, I am sure of it.

    That means, it will for him be a deciding moment, a go it all the way kind of election campaign, and he will give it his all, for sure, and use every trick and strategy he can use, to win as many votes as he and NZ First can gain.

    So he will fight it hard, in rural regions, and also in the cities, so prepare for a most aggressive campaign by NZ First, showing differences towards Nats and Labour, and of course condemning the Maori Party. He will gain a fair few votes from the right, that is National voters, some former Colin Craig and Conservatives voters, maybe even some Act voters, and the will cling to those that got disillusioned with Labour, and do all to keep those voters on board and with NZ First.

    I do not rule out that NZ First will get close to the 15 percent support mark this election, given also the Greens appear too weak, some overly idealistic, some principled, some ambiguous, so only their core supporters will continue voting Greens.

    I doubt also that there will be enough success by the Greens and Labour to win the young votes, there seems to be too little interest across the board, which is a pity, among young voters, with present politics and parties. There is though no real alternative party anywhere to be seen that would cater enough for the younger voters, who are a difficult lot to excite and interest.

    So we will have another election being decided mainly by that “middle ground”, mostly middle class voters, who will follow the purse-strings and their personal preferences, and vote for parties that they consider having realistic chances of bringing some changes that benefit them personally, not necessarily the country as a whole.

    Yes, that is how “corrupted” I see the bulk of the NZ population now, they vote for what they can get into their pockets, not what serves the nation, it has been a sad trend towards this for many years now.

    The environment is not a priority for most, nor is social justice, it is housing, education, health and the economy of course, and that spells out, it is money, income, affordability and availability of things the middle class desires.

    Hence Labour tries to sell their Kiwi Build to the aspiring first home buyers, who though only make up a fraction of all committed voters.

    So I am not all that excited about this election ahead of us, I still hope that the Nats get thrown out, and that we get a Labour led government, but the way it may look it will not thrill me one bit.

  12. WILD KATIPO says:

    Personally I would like to see the demise and irrelevancy of the Maori Party after this election.

    The only one that seems to spark any shred of decency and centrist / leftist compatibility seems to be Marama Fox. It is a shame shes tied up with that remora of a political party. That party that stood by and gave tacit – if not outright – constant general approval to the perversity’s , lies and USA sycophancy’s of John Key and his corrupt govt.

    And they are still in there backing the treacherous neo liberal govt of Bill English .

    Be gone , Maori Party sell outs !!!

  13. Dave says:

    Just cant see Labour winning with Little in charge.

  14. Craigcrabstyle says:

    I just couldn’t vote for NZ first if they are going to help keep NATIONAL in govt.I respect Winston big time always have . I can already see the NATS stalling out over opening up the pike river mine until the election is done meeting with Winston , walking out side by side “the mine will be opened and we’re getting those men out” politics 101 truly dreadful to think that the elites first treated the dead men as nothing but bodies and there living families as something less than human but now the living and the dead are nothing more than political pawns.NZ First won’t be able to save NZ from national/cultural suicide because the NATS are truly fundamentalist Neo liberals drunk on the illusion that IF YOU WORK HARD YOU WILL SUCCEED IF YOU DONT SUCCEED YOU ARE NOT WORTHY.And the faster they get to this Neo liberal UTOPIA the better.They are worse than kamikaze pilots …. They are destroying there own people there own culture….there is no honor or virtue in what they do.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      That’s because their Mont Pelerin Society neo liberal ideology comes from this source:

      Who Is The Mont Pelerin Society ?
      ———————————————-

      This looting and destruction of the nation-state of New Zealand was planned and implemented by the London-based Mont Pelerin Society.

      In 1947, Mont Pelerin founder von Hayek lamented that the war had drastically strengthened nation-states, which must be replaced, he said, with the classic, anti-state free trade “liberalism” of eighteenth and nineteenth century Britain.

      Many of those continental Europeans present, like von Hayek, carried the prefix “von” before their surnames, signifying that they came from the noble families which had governed Europe for centuries.

      Mont Pelerin shared the same “conservative revolution” philosophy as the Nazis. It also shared some of the same personnel. For instance, Max von Thurn und Taxis was a sponsor of von Hayek and his new society. Thurn und Taxis’ family had founded another society in southern Germany before World War 1, which was composed entirely of aristocrats, known as the Thule Society. Thule in turn formed a special “workers division” known as the “National Socialist German Workers Party” (NSDAP). The NSDAP, into which an Austrian corporal named Adolf Hitler was recruited, later became better known by the abbreviated version of its name, the “Nazis.” In 1989, Max von Thurn und Taxis attended a meeting of his Mont Pelerin Society in Christchurch, New Zealand, to judge, first hand, the results of the “worlds most radical free market revolution.”

      And here’s the link :

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

  15. saveNZ says:

    Have to disagree, the Greens are down because many who vote Green support Winston’s views on reducing immigration targets.

    The Chloe ‘lets develop Auckland with private developers so that trickle down will mean somehow somewhere over the rainbow that young people will be able to afford a house” is not really a discourse that is believable.

    Yep that and more taxes, not a growth strategy in itself.

    How about advocating preserving the NZ environment, keeping population static and taking care of those people and flora and fauna who currently live in the country before opening up the borders and getting the developer wrecking ball out and building high rises and taking away greenfield to turn into housing?

    Like Labour which cost them dearly last time, Greens need to have a clear message and not a soft globalism with more taxes. Will Greens want to support development or support the environment?

    They can’t muddle along. The other parties are taking their Green messages and the Greens are off track and mimicking the soft neoliberalism on globalism, that migrants are not the problem and it’s selfish voters trying to keep them from getting a house and job here.

    Maybe Greens they think they aren’t saying this, but clearly the polls tell a story that what they are doing currently is reducing votes for the Greens.

    I don’t mind Winston, but I’m a lot more liberal and support the Green movement. BUT I’m against development unless necessary and economists that want NZ to have more migration and globalisation as well as increasing taxes just to keep the dwindling public services that decades ago we could afford. Time to think local.

    The party that says that will gather votes. It’s going to be a shame if that’s the hard right or conservatives because the Greens and Labour can’t get their act together.

  16. saveNZ says:

    Interesting article about what when wrong with the Democrats campaign. Food for thought for Labour and Greens. The voter is going to vote on what they want and like, not on being told what they want by a political campaign.

    “The Clinton campaign in 2016, for instance, never saw the Bernie Sanders campaign as being driven by millions of people who over the course of decades had become dissatisfied with the party. They instead saw one cheap stunt pulled by an illegitimate back-bencher, foolishness that would be ended if Sanders himself could somehow be removed.

    “Bill and Hillary had wanted to put [Sanders] down like a junkyard dog early on,” Allen and Parnes wrote. The only reason they didn’t, they explained, was an irritating chance problem: Sanders “was liked,” which meant going negative would backfire.

    Hillary had had the same problem with Barack Obama, with whom she and her husband had elected to go heavily negative in 2008, only to see that strategy go very wrong. “It boomeranged,” as it’s put in Shattered.

    The Clinton campaign was convinced that Obama won in 2008 not because he was a better candidate, or buoyed by an electorate that was disgusted with the Iraq War. Obama won, they believed, because he had a better campaign operation – i.e., better Washingtonian puppeteers. In The Right Stuff terms, Obama’s Germans were better than Hillary’s Germans.

    Shattered is what happens when political parties become too disconnected from their voters. Even if you think the election was stolen, any Democrat who reads this book will come away believing he or she belongs to a party stuck in a profound identity crisis. Trump or no Trump, the Democrats need therapy – and soon.”

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-on-the-new-book-that-brutalizes-the-clinton-campaign-w477978

    • saveNZ says:

      The only good news for Labour and Greens is that the Natz are more deeply disconnected from voters with pro immigration and pro privatisation messages.

      BUT, the Natz are better at openly lying…..

      So can Labour and Greens reveal the Natz lies to Joe Public?

  17. saveNZ says:

    Another hint especially to Labour, is to actually send more positive social media messages to their email lists, not just emails asking for money for their ‘campaign’,

    Learn from Hillary! It’s not the money and the machine that makes you win (especially if you have a toxic up themselves out of touch team, which clearly was the case for Labour and Greens, last election), It’s getting the hearts and minds of voters to warm to you and feel empowered to change the government.

    P.s. anything to do with houses can turn bad. If Helen Clark can be taken down by a few energy efficient light bulbs that she had nothing to do with, constantly going on about WOF and capital gains, is not necessarily a voter winner…

    They need to look at the BIG picture, not break down policy into disconnected micro units policy sound bytes like a myopic beaurocrat!

  18. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    A NZ First + National coalition is FAR more likely than a Labour + NZ First + Greens (supply and confidence). I predict another three years of National, whether we like it or not (not, in my case). The bright side is there is a real chance of a total global economic collapse while National is at the helm which will likely render them near unelectable for a decade.

  19. Takere says:

    Putting the polling numbers aside for a moment and let’s look at the parties make up.

    The Nat’s
    Bill, Benefit & a Dildo leading the team & then it gets worse! BiPolar Nick gets demoted because of the “public-image” damage he’s caused wreaking havoc with everything that is important to the country & its people.
    The Dildo’s coughing up Billions of dollars of spending which is not new spending, its regurgitating what the Nat’s have already committed since the last budget.
    The trend of their polling results since December 2016 tells you that they’re bleeding votes to NZF & Labour. Anything less than 44% puts them in the danger-zone.

    Labour
    The Smile & Wave campaign is boring but it doesn’t seem to be hurting them in the polls? If anything, it’ll be their ground game that’ll win this election. I think the final result on the 23rd September will surprise many folks?
    The slogan getting a hammering lately, Angry Andy seems to be wearing off to with the public. With Hooten pumping that slogan constantly, lamestream media too are getting a little tired of it so I’ll be expecting someone to come up with another “tagline” for either Andrew or Jacinda?
    The issues are what we hear every fuck’n election! Boring! How about something Bold! Some actual Dooey! Commit to something & do it! Like resurrect a Ministry of Works House Building Construction Company! Restructure the economy to focus on the Domestic side of the equation? Drop the Social Housing(Privatisation)contracting as Fletchers seem to win big there every time! Nearly $7b annually flows through their books.
    Since we dont have the burden of the TPPA. Tax building products imported & use that revenue to support local manufacturers to make building products like we use too!
    A lot of this isn’t rocket science. It’s simple & common sense stuff. Pull the big levers & that will resolve a lot of the issues all the centrist partys are waffling on about. The more sensitive issues like the failing Health system, Education system, Police, imprisonment & immigration/migration can be sorted easily.

    The Greens
    They’ve sold out their “Green Environmental, Conservation” credibility for iwi Housing! For a Settlement that’s not a Settlement! Backing BiPolar Nicks Pt England Development Enabling Confiscation Bill! No public park, reserve, DoC managed land or even the sacred National parks are safe from confiscation by the Crown and are up for sale to the highest bidder!
    Selling out the party faithful and going all in for the youth vote is just moving deckchairs about? No real gains there & most likely it could hurt them badly, the loss in the RM poll of -1.5% is a “Bleed” they’ll have to arrest.

    I must admit. I have been campaigning against the Greens since they initially supported my rogue iwi cousins Hau & Moe of the private entity, the Ngati Paoa iwi Trust Board who’ve gone off the reservation to steal the Auckland public whenua at Pt England disguised as a “Treaty Claim”. It’s not. The original claim is 5k’s away in Panmure/Mauinaina, Mokoia Pa. It’s a Commercial Deal between the “Holding Co” of Ngati Paoa iwi Trust that is a private company and the board is populated with rich guys from Remmers who’re getting large fees! The people have received nothing!
    I’ve met with Marama, Eugenie spoken with the CoS & the Dir. of Strategy to get them to see that they are on the wrong side of this, but Marama is determined to put their Maori Development policy ahead of the people of Ngati Paoa’s future Settlement & future well-being & Treaty existence.

    ManaMaori – The Wharepaku Parties
    2014 Election Result(s): 1.34% & 1.37%.
    One question I ask. Are either of these parties in a better situation now than they were then? In my view, No!
    The House-Nigga’s are just that! Have they improved the plight of the poor, impoverished, homeless, jobless people they purport to represent? No!

    The sooner they’re wiped off the face of the earth the better!

    Winston
    Again, he’s running an old campaign strategy that’s worked for him in the past & is working for him again. No need to say any more other than, if he gets up to where the Greens could have been, in the early teens, 11%-13%. That would the Labour party options to form a Govt.
    The Greens (if the numbers work) or, not and NZF!

    The only problem from experience with Winston is. When he gets into Government he tends to blow it! 1996-1998, 2005-2008

    I hear the Greens are shitting it as I had a twitter spat with Genter last week about their polling. The RM poll confirms I was on the money! They’re having a Caucus meeting tonight!

    The Conservatives!
    With 95,000 voters up for grabs or looking for a new home because horny Colin can’t keep his words to himself! Where will they go? Some to the Nat’s? Some/or a lot to NZF? And maybe Labour might pick up a few?

    I think its game on! I hope for a change in Government, whatever the make-up is, it has to be a Government that does stuff instead of talk about it!

    All typo’s & grandma errors are mine!

    Oh PS: Go see my son & his mates in their Comedy Show! Starts tomorrow:
    A Ngati Paoa Comedian Making his way in the World.Harry. Success with Women: A Comedy Seminar show opens on Tuesday Book Now: http://ln.is/www.iticket.co.nz/ev/fRHJm
    #nzcomedyfest #comedyfest2017 #comedyfesthashtag

  20. Jack Ramaka says:

    Looks like NZF is polling well and have heard through the grapevine there is a surge of interest from new party members 15% looks achievable this 2017 election which would give NZF a good chance of holding the balance of power. I doubt NZF will go with National and if they did they would be holding them to account on every issue.

  21. Realist says:

    I don’t know what planet you’re on Martin, but here on Earth, the reporter’s ethnicities are quite relevant when discussing conflicts of interest.


 
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