National have suffered a shock drop of 4.5% and Labour-Greens have jumped up 5.5% in the latest Roy Morgan Poll…
During December support for National fell by 4.5% to 45% now just ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 43% (up 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be a very close result.
…it was always my contention that NZ would enter the Summer with National and Labour-Green on the same poll numbers.
This is close enough.
The question as to whether or not National would retain its popularity post Key looks like it is getting answered.
Also worth noting is that NZF are down in the poll. There’s some fluctuations among the minor parties too.
Basically this is essentially an even race from the starting line, assuming subsequent polls bear out the trend we see from this one.
Indeed, Matthew.
If the TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, and/or Herald DigIPOll show similar trends, expect the Nats to panic.
If they do panic, English will start throwing hints of a tax bribe (aka “family assistance”) around the place.
All we need then is for a few more stories of families living in cars and garages, and elderly folk like Trixie Cottingham denied basic assistance from the State (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/86324315/Hospital-cuts-off-96-year-old-woman-leaving-her-to-fend-for-herself), and that may focus the attention of fair-minded New Zealanders. (Money-grubbing hard-core Tory supporters are a lost cause.)
Yes Frank you are right so will English save our Gisborne to Napier mothballed rail service now???
If our “Gisborne rail Co-operative” Expressions of interest (EOI) that went into Kiwirail today requesting we save the line and tender for its use only for freight, passenger and tourism not for bikes or golf carts then English may be smart as two National MPs are about to loose their seats to labour if they don’t.
Anne Tolley and the Craig Foss replacement.
And its still a long way to go before election time . The ‘B ‘ team ( Bennett, Blinglish ) while reminding us of a Laurel and Hardy act , will be our best assets.
They have none of the sleazy used car salesman acumen of Key nor the ability to think fast on their feet. Both of them have a past. They are not called ‘ Dipper ‘ and ‘ Pullyer ‘ for no reason.
By election time expect National to be at around the late thirties.
This year they will be made mincemeat of by a resurgent media and a restless public.
I think you are right.
The religious property speculators in National have the initiative.
NZ1st are always 3% over valued
And L/G always 3% undervalued
Some things just won’t change
Well, it’s less about other companies verifying the result, (RM is actually the most reliable one of the two actually running semi-regular polls, and we haven’t heard from TV/Reid Research, Fairfax/Ipsos, or the Herald Digipoll in all of 2016, because those three only run during campaign season) and more about the fact that this poll started collecting data while John Key was still Prime Minister, so it’s only got the initial shock reaction. National’s numbers could potentially rebound from here, so it’s no reason for those on the Left to get complacent.
It’s possible that the drop is actually going to be more than the 4.5%ish drop this poll suggests because this won’t really include anyone reacting to Bill English being the new PM.
(I looked into this poll in a bit more depth on my blog- the really interesting thing is this poll is so even that once you run the scenarios based on the margin of error, both an outright coalition government between Labour, Greens, the Māori and Mana parties are in the cards, as well as a government with National, Act, UF, and the Māori Party, and of course in-between there’s the possibility of NZF working with either bloc)
The way National’s acting suggests that their internals don’t quite put the party into a panic, (there have been resignations, but they seem reasonable reactions to a new PM who wants a slightly different team, rather than an exodus) as a freefall in their internal polling would likely cause. There’s three explanations to that:
* Curia’s internals are giving them higher numbers than RM is.
* Curia has run at least two internals since JK’s resignation and they’ve shown that while National’s Party Vote share has dropped, the drop has levelled off for now.
* They’re putting on a brave face and kicking the election down the curb because their poll numbers are in fact falling in their internals, but they think they can turn it around with enough time, especially by wasting Labour’s energy on this upcoming by-election.
Interesting analysis, Matthew.I haven’t looked deeply into the figures, but concur with you that RM is more reliable – mainly because they contact cellphone numbers as well as landlines. (I was polled once, about four years ago.)
Indeed.
A further point is that Key timed his announcement with almost surgical precision. Just enough time before the Christmas break-up of Parliament – but sufficiently into the Christmas consumerist-spending-orgy that the Citizenry are distracted by the latest Briscoes sale…
Or alternatively Curia polling is the reason they are extra shy of a thrashing in another by election. They may be trying to avoid a cumulative effect of bad news. Jacinda looks so appealing next to Paula who is strangely starting to resemble the weight loss
“Lady” of Little Britain fame. The patronising smiles, slightly sadistic comments and bright and breezy mania.
They don’t need Curia to predict they’d lose in Mt. Albert, I’d also make that call without even looking at a poll. Not only is it a safe seat for Labour electorate candidates, but no sitting government has won a by-election in modern political history, (You have to go back to the Liberal and Reform parties to get a government winner in a by-election) so National isn’t going to upset that trend in Mt. Albert, even if they had another Nikki Kaye-style MP to run there who might ostensibly be popular in a liberal area like Auckland. It was a smart move not to run as their only way to even be competitive would be to spend big money.
Maybe NZers are starting to see the light of what we may as well call ‘self-serving-ness’ here in the ‘new’ National government that is Bill English.
A new cynicsm is in place. Back in April 2016 Bill English referred to a number of NZers as being ‘hopeless’ when it came to jobs and employment.
And so if that is his attitude towards New Zealanders I am hoping NZers have a long memory from now on then it’s understandable as to why the liking of Natoinal has dropped in this poll. If the ‘new’ pm of New Zealand doesn’t have any respect for NZers then why should we have any respect, admiration let alone confidence in him and his government?
Also perhaps not many people like Paula Bennett and for English to make her deputy pm is probably the straw that has broken the camels’ back.
Between now and election 2017 English will want to try to fool as many voters as possible into voting for him and his political party. The track record of MPs like Paula Bennett will hopefully result in him having a few sleepless nights from now on. But English will be having to watch his back because it’s likely he has angered a number of National MPs in his cabinet revamp.
This government is now under the microscope now that the so-called ‘golden boy’ that was John Key has buggered off to his more beloved Hawaii.
Paula Bennett. Minister for Women affairs. Here is her track record:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/7482635/Bennett-won-t-rule-out-releasing-beneficiary-details
And the arrogance of Bennett: “Bennett said today it was Hesketh’s “opinion” that she had breached Fuller’s privacy but the two women had come to an agreement and proceedings wouldn’t be taken against her.”
Mind you between now and election day which political party will be courting NZ First in the hope to become government or remain in government?
Winston wont have a bar of Nactional as they are right now attempting to use anything they can to unseat him by using any agency plan to cause Northland economy to collapse so Winston will ride the “independent wave” until the Labour/Green bunch need him to get into Government next year.
Today Winnie is slamming EA Electricity Authority in the press for the EA planning again in moving to increase line charges to consumers furthest away from electricity generators and Winston says this will cripple the Northland region’s manufacturing industry.
Recently Kiwirail was used bas a tool against him by shutting down Northland Rail also so Winston knows where national is at so we ask does the electorate?.
Winston hates the greens….end of story for Labour, do you think the greens will accept positions outside of cabinet to have Winnie on board? If they do then they are bigger idiots than i already know them to be.
Everybody loved their abuser; yankee doodle psycho jonky-stien, because he had a certain bouncy, bon vivant. He and us might giggle our way through one of his torture sessions because, ‘Hey ! Sausage and beer at the barbi now pass the pliers ? ‘
Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( NPD ) types do that to their victims. They tie them up then tear them to pieces.
Bill English has no such charm. He’s just an unimaginative tool for the Banks to use as they see fit. Mark my words, his administration will be releasing farmer money back into society, or what ever our society might be called after after years of jonky, and you’ll see the polls trend ever upward.
If he doesn’t do that. He and us and everything will be even more fucked than we are.
Thanks for this TDB, because there is nothing in msm yet about this latest poll, well not that I can find anyway. It will either be non reported, or it will be tucked away somewhere on the bum end of a page, which doesn’t attract a lot of readership.
Natz will not be happy chappies at this poll, so perhaps have informed msm not to publish, for fear of having the general public engage their brains, thinking there just might be a better alternative after all to vote for next year.
Once the shining Prince called Lucifer, aka John Not the Baptist Key, has left the scene, the absence of any talent and policies of substance is blatantly obvious to the beholder now.
Having a dry, humour and charisma lacking Blinglish head the troops, and a having shallow, smart arsed, but giggly and dumber than average Deputy PM called Paula Benefit “support” him, that can only be an abysmal show of competence and talent.
The Nats are without underpants now, they have nothing much to show, and this will just be the beginning of future downward polls for them.
Let Andrew Little run a smart and organised ship called Labour, pick up some good and sound policies that bring back social justice, fairness and affordable housing, decent health care, benefits people can actually survive on, and so much more, and the choice will be easy for ever more Kiwis and New Kiwis to make.
Roll on Election 2017, I can’t wait to cast my vote for CHANGE!
For the last 3 terms we have been told by National “Under the John Key government withs solo positive results but that has now gone ,to be replaced by Bennett’s Solo mum sob story ad infinitem . Now I urge all on the Left to challenge this. Because I for one would like to know how she was able to go to University with a baby ,Who looked after her child and how did she manage to pay a babysitter, How did she manage to live while at University , because I also wonder how many Other alone Solo-mums were able to afford to do this\?
I am already sick off hear Bennett’s solo-mum sob story let’s hear the truth regarding this matter,Lets hear about her well off parents who shielded miss Bennett from the hardships most Solo-mums have to endure .
One swallow does not a summer make
It’s the Roy Morgan poll – the most erratic and unreliable one.
In what way is the Roy Morgan poll “erratic and unreliable”?
Of all the main polls, it is the one that produces the most rogue results (both ways).
This is well known and has been commented on quite a lot in recent years.
Examples I have googled
https://dimpost.wordpress.com/2016/07/22/roy-morgan-wild-guessing-game/
https://thestandard.org.nz/nats-take-a-plunge-on-the-roy-morgan-roundabout/
Andrew, you’re using LEFTWING blogs as citations to back up your assertions??
Really??
So does that mean you place greater authority in the relevance of leftwing blogs than in , say, the NBR, Whaleboil, etc?
Your on-going Road to Damascus conversion is a joy to behold.
I have similar quotes from both Whaleoil and Kiwiblog but was just making a point.
Are you all this obtuse?
You use Whaleoil and Kiwiblog as references?!
To quote you, It explains a lot about you Andrew.
So here we go, the revolving door is going around again.
There is an even-money chance Labour might make it in, but so what?
Labour is nominally a Centre-Left party, and National is nominally a Centre-Right party, but this is just word-play. We live in a One Party Corporatocracy posing as a Two Party Democracy.
Both parties are effectively pledged to carry on the agenda of Neo-Liberalism, and to maintain control of the government in the hands of the Professional Elites. All else is just theatre.
There will be diversions, there will be the occasional Magic Show, some spectacle, and a bit of pulpit-thumping about Change, but the core premise will hold; whoever is in power will work to advance Neo-Liberalism, while protecting itself, the Establishment, and THIS will not change at all.
I see Lailla Harre advertises on this page. She is the consummate example of the fully-interchangable Professional Elite; charming, personable, friendly. How many political parties has she stood for to date? Forget that… she is a perfectly lovely person. But still the nagging realisation… a vote for Lailla is a vote for… what? No one has any precise idea… just… more.
At a certain point, any intelligent person must realise that they are being made a fool of here. Homelessness keeps going up regardless of who is in office. Child poverty, the same. House prices? It would take an external economic earthquake for the market to crash, finally bringing house prices down, when policy could have done it without all the agony and upheaval.
This charade continues because we have no means of holding these people to account, and they know it.
You and I are always accountable; take $100 that doesn’t belong to you, and if you are caught, you risk being arrested. Slack off at work, and eventually your employer will catch up to you, and you will be sacked. Spy on someone, get caught and go to gaol. Waste shareholder’s money, expect to get sued.
But for the Professional Elite, there is no real way to hold them to their promises, or even to get them to promise anything, which they now realise they no longer need to do. They exist in a Post-Truth, 3-tiered political system, an Iron Triangle of Professional Politicians, the Professional Public Service, and Corporate New Zealand. They are sworn to protect, support and promote their own. Members of any one “Estate” may freely move to another “Estate”, and is expected to do so in any well-rounded career. But as for the voters? The Establishment has no real need to answer to us for their performance.
WE MUST FIND A WAY TO MAKE THESE PEOPLE ACCOUNTABLE.
Or the revolving door will just keep on spinning, while we get poorer and poorer, whoever happens to be in office.
Good comment – all we will get is another “lesser evil” kind of government.
Comments are closed.