Election 2014: Numbers and Faces

1. I don’t agree with your analysis at all.

   No one will ever know until the vote counting is done!

   And did you factor in the response to revelations tonight?

   Anyway, I fully disagree with you, and I am praying to God that FJK will not even win his electorate, and that many other hopeful gNats will not win theirs either.

   FJK and F all gNats!!!

   Opinion.

   • Totally agree with you Mistery. Keith Rankin’s so called analysis is a load of shit, he hasn’t taken into account the impact of national’s dirty politics and treasonous activities. Despite what the lying media say, NZers do care. Im sick and tired of these frigging guesstimates, that always end up wrong anyway. Are these people trying to influence the vote, or trying to comfort themselves. There should be a law prohibiting polls during an election campaign. As it is, national/media use the polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink voters.

2. The preferential voting system is a crock of shit forcing peoples votes to go to people they don’t want in. Australias system is a rigged system that keeps most diverse opinions and popular coverage confined to a bipartisan system. MMP is a much easier and fairer system that preferential voting. As I have experience of both I can comment. However I could see a two tier system working (similar to the Australian States), where the party vote only counts for the nations government and the electorate votes form a regional council taking regional issues to the Capital for funding and laws.

   • I suspect preferential voting would be used for electorate votes (currently run as fpp), while the system as a whole remains mmp. This may help move away from the two-party electorate seat contests we currently have.

3. My predictions:

   ACT will not survive this election.
   The Maori Party probably won’t get any seats.
   Peter Dunne probably will get back in, again (ugh).
   Labour will get at least 25%.

   Unsure about the Conservatives getting 5% yet, lets say 50/50.

4. Good analysis, despite some of the comments above (possibly an example of desire getting in the way of facts and sound analysis…). I especially like your idea about the metropolitan electorates being bigger with STV or PV systems (it would also be better to find a way to have smaller rural electorates – one MP looking after Clutha-Southland or West Coast-Tasman, let alone Te Tai Tonga? You’re dreaming! – if you could avoid the overhang problem in rural areas). After all, the electorates don’t really matter except from the viewpoint of communities of interest and MP’s helping their constituents.

   Two questions, you’ve mentioned that Labour would have overhang MP’s on your numbers, but the total adds up to 120 – what would the overhang be on your numbers? Also, picking Labour to gain Chch Central and Napier on less of the party vote is bold – would losing either of these seats bring Parker in?

   • Thanks Sam,

     My posting got abbreviated slightly, I understand because of references to shading in my second table; shading which was too complex to replicate easily in html. In this version you can see the missing text and shading. Essentially my point was that if Labour wins any more electorates over and above the ones I have called for Labour, and the party vote percentages are as I suggested in my first table, then Labour would have overhang seats.

     • This is a great insight and one I think that is very important to spread more widely.
       The received MMP wisdom is that the party vote is what counts but with Labour’s low party vote polling the electorates can make a significant difference. This surely is an election like no other in terms of the nuances and possibilities.
       I am now going to change my electorate vote as prior to reading this I thought it made no difference – thank you.

       This electorate vote issue really does call for a re-working of the Progressive Voter Guide – one or two more electorates to Labour could make a big difference.

   • Sam, your second question. Yes, if all else in my prediction is unchanged except that the National candidates win Napier and Chch Central, then David Parker and Jacinda Ardern would get in. One other point to note is that if the National candidates win Waimakariri and Port Hills and Labour candidates win Napier and Chch Central – as iPredict currently suggests that they will – then Clayton Cosgrove would just miss out by a thread both on the list and in his electorate.

5. I agree, your analysis is flawed and based on much of the status quo remaining, yet none of the events of recent weeks let alone what happened at the Moment of Truth event last night I bet has not been factored in! Ultimately, the Maori Party are dead – REALLY – and if Labour and the Greens do their job properly in Ohariu, P Dunne should be ousted! Immediately based on that premise, we have a Centre Left Govt of 62 vs 59! and that has a probably greater than 50/50 chance I’d say … but who am I anyway, just a passionate supporter of the truth and justice right up to the very top with John Key as PM needing to be sacked for his part in all this dirty lying filth!

Comments are closed.