If Labour has any chance of leading the next Government, 4 electorates have to tactically fall the right way.
Te Tai Tokerau
Despite the recent bluster that Kelvin Davis intends to take this electorate for Labour, the leadership appreciate how important it is for Hone to win and keep MANA in the running. Davis is a very good candidate and he will be promoted high into the Labour Party list so that his entry into Parliament is assured and will provide the best argument during the election for Te Tai Tokerau voters to vote for Hone safe in the knowledge Kelvin will become an MP via the Labour list.
John Banks won this seat last time by a small majority of 2300, the combined total of MANA, Labour and Green candidate vote was almost 6000. That vote was totally wasted and if combined to the National candidate, would have meant the end of ACT. This election the Green and Labour candidate (I don’t think there will be a MANA candidate) must clearly state they are only after the Party vote while progressives online push a ‘hold your nose and vote for the National MP’ tactical campaign. If Labour and Green Party voters in Epsom vote for the National Party candidate with their electorate vote, they will kill off ACT and eliminate a possible coalition partner for the Government.
Peter Dunne beat Charles Chauvel by 1500 odd votes last time. With Katrina Shanks bowing out the race is wide open and with Gareth Hughes stepping away to stop the candidate wasted vote, Labour could surprise the electorate with a shock return of Chauvel from the UN to run again. Expect some surprises. If Labour can win this seat, they rob Key of another possible ally.
This is one of the most crucial electorates. Based on current polling, if Te Ururoa Flavell wins he will bring in two other MPs. Seeing as the Maori Party look set to lose every single other Maori electorate they currently represent, Flavell’s win here is crucial for the National Party. In 2008 Flavell won with a massive 7000 majority, in 2011 with only a couple of months campaigning, Annette Sykes had slashed his margin down to 1883. The Greens are considering not standing a candidate and Labour understand the importance of Annette winning the seat.
If these electorates fall the right way, MANA wins Te Tai Tokerau, National wins Epsom, Labour win Ōhariu & MANA win Waiariki, Labour and the Greens have a chance to be the next Government.