It’s a long held truism that opposition parties don’t win elections, governments lose them. So is it possible that the ascendancy of David Cunliffe could flip that ancient political wisdom on its head?
National’s been in power for five years. In that time almost nothing has dented John Key’s popularity. Not asset sales, the GCSB scandal, sacking public servants, corporate cronyism, National Standards, charter schools, tax cuts for the rich, scrapping night classes …name your poison.
The one thing that has had an impact is David Cunliffe. The four polls to come out since he became leader are (please god) the start of the long awaited Labour recovery. And just to sweeten the treat it appears that Labour’s rise is mainly at the expense of National and not our allies and friends.
David Cunliffe won’t get the traditional honeymoon usually granted to new leaders – I doubt he was expecting it. He will, however, get considerable leeway from the newly elated Labour members and supporters who finally have a leader who looks and sounds like a leader, with the credibility and experience to beat National and become our next Prime Minister. But it’s not a cake walk for him – expectations are high and he only has 12 months to get it right. He won’t get a second chance. What does he need to do to ensure that he can put together a Labour-led government in 2014?
Gary Morgan from Roy Morgan says:
“If Cunliffe can enunciate a consistent concise message of the Labour Party policies and who they will improve the lives of New Zealanders and the country in general over the next 12 months, Cunliffe stands a real chance of being elected as New Zealand’s next Prime Minister at next year’s election.”
So messaging is vital. No rocket science there. Oh hang on it is rocket science – or at least something pretty damned difficult if Labour’s past attempts at messaging are anything to go by. I don’t know why but somehow it’s not in their DNA. Traditional Labour says if we’ve issued a press release, communication has taken place. Traditional Labour says if we tell people often enough why we’re right and the other guys are wrong, people will come around to our way of seeing the world. Fortunately Cunliffe is a good communicator and he’s putting a skilled team around him who should be able to lift Labour’s game.
As well as the public Labour has two specific audiences that deserves special attention. The first is the wider Labour whanau; the unions, community groups and NGOs, and the arts and other general lefties. Good communication and relationships with these groups will be critical for Cunliffe. They’re rooting for a Labour win and they can help make it happen by coming out and supporting Labour policies and campaigns but it doesn’t happen by itself. Witnessing Labour unveil its power policy this year without a friend in sight (Greens notwithstanding) was like being forced to watch the socially gauche kid at the school dance – sad and embarrassing. But first Cunliffe must reach out to them; listen and talk with them and then invite them to become part of the project.
The inner circle is Labour’s precious members and supporters (and I mean precious like jewels). Lucky for Cunliffe the leadership election and his win galvanized so many people that Party membership has almost doubled so he’s got thousands of newly energized members ready and willing to do the mahi. These are the foot soldiers that can crown him King. He would be wise to keep them seriously engaged on a very personal and respectful level. Here social media is a gift; he can be talking and listening, messaging, writing and responding to blog posts, publishing surveys, asking questionnaires, attending virtual meetings and interviews, raising money, promoting candidates and generally – in a way no Labour leader has before – using new technology to make people feel like they and their leader are part of a real movement, unified behind a common cause and making history together.
But while Cunliffe is, in terms of Party morale, coming off a low base, euphoria is no substitute for real relationships and just like in any real relationships David Cunliffe will have to make some respectful deposits before he’s got enough in the bank to make serious withdrawals.
“.. and he’s putting a skilled team around him who should be able to lift Labour’s game..”
um..!..has that member of ‘the highly skilled team’ who wheeled out that ‘struggling-investor’..
..have they been put on gardening-leave..?
..if not..why not..?
phillip ure..
Totally agree. What the heck was that all about. Is there a housing crisis because someone’s pre-approval loan for a $500,000 house was withdrawn? While in the same city a council is thinking about bulldozing houses to make way for a motorway. Labour may possibly have been looking at the problem (?) but that never made its way to a newspaper. Come on there’s more to a housing crisis than me not wanting to live in a suburb with a lot of brown people. Who are these ‘talented’ people DC is surrounding himself with?
Not sure if your opinion that Cunliffe turns an old belief on its head. More a combination of the two. National have been hit by forging ahead with unpopular policies despite the public’s disapproval. Eventually voters have enough, it happened to Helen Clarks Labour Government. As time goes by
policies that turn people off start mounting. Look at asset sales, spying on the public, fishing quota cuts, employment laws changes etc. Add to the mix corporate handouts & looking after the rich and an out of touch attitude. It’s a case of the straw that broke the camels back.
Timing is everything, I was quite happy to have Shearer as a caretaker till the time was right to strike. People within Camp Cunliffe were dog on me, & just wouldn’t listen to my reasoning that ‘the timing wasn’t right & better to wait for Key-National to start to take hits, before a reshuffle at the top, after a stagnant time.
Step up a ‘now’ competent Leader of the opposition and the voters ears are ready to listen. Bingo we have a winner!
Well , all I can say is I’ve had enough of the ‘disrespectful deposits’ that National and the Digitals have been laying down .
I personally think that Blogs made the difference . Until the Blog , good intentions honed by information sharing could be lured into an ally then quietly murdered . Blogs can engage everybody and from what I can tell almost everybody has had enough of greedy , lying , criminally insane rich people yanking the chains of our gutless and equally greedy politicians . All David Cunliffe has to do is release the brakes and run ahead . Not that I’m dismissing Cunliffe . He’s the best person for the job I’ve seen in recent years . If I was roger fucking douglas , I’d be shopping for a good disguise . ( roger , fucking douglas . Why does that sound peculiar ??? )
mmm….Rodgering Douglas. Well done, rurallad, might use that one. (and yes, was once ‘lured into an ally’ myself…more ‘lurid’ actually….)
David Cunliffe is doing a very good job at the moment. He seems to be hitting the ground running, putting himself out there making his presence, as well as that of his Labour team known. That’s what a good leader does. Sells himself and his product. If Cunliffe continues as he’s begun, over the next year his efforts will payoff, by winning the election.
John Key on the other hand, is failing. The cracks are beginning to appear now. His recent jaunts around the UK and Europe saw him fail to gain any concessions for NZ. Recently, he failed again in Australia! He’s on the way out. Cunliffe will confirm that one in 2014. Then the brighter future will begin for the majority of Kiwis.
David Cunliffe, NZ’s next PM? You bet!
He’s a good political leader with a good grasp of rhetoric. Labour have my vote next election because of this.
However, watching David Cunliffe and Jacinda Ardern speaking on the tertiary education sector this week I was a little disturbed by general promises of goodwill, fighting against the neoliberal agenda, and vote for Labour propoganda but little to no mention of specific policy to allieviate a very real dire situation for all academics, professional staff and students alike nationwide.
Likewise on Citizen A last night Ms Ardern danced around the marijuana law reform issue, the present draconian law being reponsible for a large number of unnecessary incarcerations.
I hope I’m just being paranoid due to 5 years of oppresive govt, but I really hope we are just not going to have a rehash of the last Labour Government which tinkered but never did really anything that significant.
I hope David Cunliffe is a great reformer like Mickey Savage – I really do. I would hate to see more of the same National lite style governance.
Labour have a real chance here to go four terms and lay down a society and economy for the ages – they also are at a juncture where they could lose it all.
I think David Cunliffe can bring it home strongly next election. But it is what happens next that I’m feeling a little squirelly about. Like I said – could be pure paranoia
I was at that rally, and I noted that Cunliffe said that he could not make promises on policies which had not yet been made. So, keep a lookout for policies as they are released. Politicians cannot do much in the face of passivity from their constituents, and for that reason the broad left needs to maintain both its enthusiasm and sense of urgency if real change is to happen.
>> keep a lookout for policies as they are released. <<
We could advocate loudly and publicly for policies we want to see, write to party spokespeople (from all parties) about them, and argue the toss with any Labour supporters/ members we happen to know. Democracy is about co-creating social policy, isn't it?
I feel that partially the reason that Key and National have emerged unscathed during the past years is due to the weakness of the Labour opposition. ( I note that the Greens have certainly improved their ratings and presence). The fact is that the recent Labour leadership contest and Cunliffe’s election have energized the party (and its supporters) to an extent that has not been seen since the early 1980s. Plus, two of the leadership contenders (Cunliffe and Robertson) offered alternative social democratic visions to the prevailing free market philosophy.
Of course it to early to tell whether these polls are reflective of an overall downward trend for National. The next months will provide that. In addition, Labour needs to carry through with its recommitment and reattachment to a social democratic philosophy and programme.
I’ve certainly been re-energised by the election of David Cunliffe as leader of the Labour Party. I even received an email this evening inviting me to my local LEC meeting next week, so I need to put my money where my mouth has been for a while and attend!!
Jenny – weren’t you a high-profile casualty of Labour’s poor communications during the recent leadership campaign? It looks as though you’re on the team again, which I think is a good thing, but what are you guys going to do to stop another Curran-like brain fart during next year’s campaign? The stakes are much bigger next time, as I’m sure you know.
Yes that was me. Alas there is only so much that can be done for individuals but a well thought out and implemented strategy can cover a multitude of sins.
I personally don’t buy the line that government’s lose elections… No matter how bad the govt, it will always trump a worse opposition.
Cunliffe is starting to show that Labour will be a credible government, and the polls are beginning to reflect this. Key does appear to be in trouble and his government will lose because the opposition does provide an attractive and credible alternative.
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