I always had the sense that Labour went up, despite Shearer, not because of him, yesterdays Roy Morgan result doesn’t help that perception.
Roy Morgan differ from the other polls in that they take into account cell phone users lessening the landline bias, it seems to produce results to the left of the TV3 and TVNZ polls.
National – down 3 to 41%
Labour – up 1 to 32.5%
Greens – up 1% to 15%
NZ First – up 1% to 6.5%
Maori Party – down 1% to 1%
MANA – n/c .5%
ACT up .5 to 1%
United Future – n/c .5%
Conservative Party up .5 to 1.5%
The ocean of John Key supporters is deep and massive and should not in any way be underestimated, what I think is happening here is more of the 800 000 non-voters are coming off the side lines than National voters swapping sides.
What these numbers suggest is beyond those who love National, there is a real hunger for a functioning opposition to this Government.
Wild cards are who wins the Labour leadership on Sunday. If Grant wins, the membership will walk giving the Greens 20%, if Cunliffe wins, his knowledge that his only shot is the 2014 election will open him to thinking outside the box in terms of a strategic relationship between the Greens and MANA and surely would be buying Charles Chauvel a one way ticket back to face Peter Dunne.
NZ First are the other wild card. If John Tamihere joins Winston they will remain a political force beyond 2014, but if Greens and Labour hold a majority, negotiation between the 3 would remove NZ First from being a brake to progressive legislation.
The Conservative Party provides National with one of the few options for partners if Maori Party, ACT and United Future evaporate.
Yep – if the Caucus swing the vote to shut out Cunliffe I will be resigning my party membership and vote Green in 2014 – not because I don’t like Robertson but because it will show that The Caucus don’t care if they loose – and give Key another term.
@ GRUNTIE – I gave away my Labour membership and vote, after the destructive spectre of Rogernomics was let loose on NZ! Since then my vote has been Greens, which has now become the country’s third major political party and gaining traction all the time, bearing down hard on Labour.
In saying that, I sincerely hope Labour selects the right man [Cunliffe] to lead the party. If they don’t, then they can expect to be replaced as second major party by the NZ Greens, whose political star is rising fast.
Do you realize too that if Key is given a third term as PM he is guaranteed a knighthood? Now if that was allowed to become a reality, it would be a real slap in the face for ordinary Kiwis, given Key’s obvious disdain for the struggling working class!
…but aren’t Knighthoods supposed to be a slap in the face of ordinary people?
@ FATTY – absolutely they are! But if Key gets one, it’s really rubbing our noses in the proverbial isn’t it?
Knighthood guaranteed after his upcoming Balmoral jaunt.
If Robertson wins on Sunday Labour wont be getting my vote ever again.
Robertson IMO is as much to blame as the ABC club re their dismal poll results..
Cunliffe is the one person who can unite this party and get those 800 K off their collective asses to vote coz there be something worth to vote for.
THE ABC Club need to be let go……
Robertson cant even win his own electorate seat and he wants to be PM
= Failure
Come on. Let’s remember that when you sign up for and participate in a democratic process, you are agreeing to live by the results. The “I believe in democracy but only if my guy wins” approach is exactly what you are accusing the caucus of.
When this new process was brought in, the media and various commentators predicted that it would be a huge own-goal, because it would lay bare and entrench rifts within the party and create bad will. Don’t make that prediction come true. So far it’s (mostly) been a positive, strengthening exercise. If people pack up their toys and go home at the end, though, what sort of party will be left?
I would argue that it is also everyones democratic right to choose to leave and vote elsewhere if they feel that a particular party choose an alternate direction to the membership. If the caucus feel that the National lite non-transformative direction is the way to go, then I see no problem for anyone to democratically choose to shift to the Greens. If Labour sit to the right of centre or on the boundary line then a strong Green presence moves their policies further left. It is a MMP world after all. Personally I vote for policies that I think will improve NZ. I don’t vote for personalities. I realise that this is a minority position. From reading his speeches in the early Shearer tenure, David Cunliffe and Green ideas on policy are not so far removed. I believe a strong Labour/Green coalition is needed to push social and economic leftwards and ultimately forwards to the benefit of everyone
What would be left would be a party of greedy neo liberal troughers who betrayed the working people of NZ in a thoroughly dishonest and unforgivable rort that included generational wealth given away to foreign corporates without the consent of the NZ people. If we had our shit together as a society Labour would be tried for treason or better still put to the guillotine!
I agree in that the 800,000 is the sleeping giant that , when awoken will step on jonky . My fear is that all the small party gerrymandering will water down the Giant Effect .
Dr Wayne Hope said that the line between the Dark Side and the Light Side ( or Left wing / RIght wing . ) is straight through the middle of Labour and I’d agree with that too .
There’s a perilous balancing act in progress right now between what needs to be done versus conventional politicking .
This is no time for convention .
Sunday will be telling and I reckon at about Wednesday I’ll know whether I have to emigrate or not .
That is why Tactical voting is the way to go……..
The Left parties IMO still are under the mindset its FPP when it isnt……….
Pull your heads in
Yes, why vote Labour when a vote for the Greens would pull them left?
Or better yet, vote Mana and pull Labour further.
Not only do the Left still think with FPP, but they also vote based on personality – which is the primary critique of voting National.
If we eliminate the image of the Greens and Mana, take away the personalities and discourses surrounding them, who would you vote for? Whose policies will create the society you want? Whose policies acknowledge our past and plan for the future more?
For those who understand our history and our current problems, Mana have the best vision.
The Left would crack a massive boner if Cunliffe got in and put forward Mana’s policies. Probably only a semi for the Greens.
On the left we are great at telling the right to look in the mirror, its a shame we’re also seduced by discourses and political imagery.
Funny that I was having the same conversation if Johnny Rotten gets back in I want to emigrate, but where to go?? Oz .. Tony Bigot yuk, looks like the whole world is run by greedy tyrants, parading around like Olympic champions.
@ Countryboy – where are you thinking of emigrating to?
If its not Cunliffe, my bet is Labour won;t actually last that long as a viable political force.
I’m considering northern India
While we’re talking percentages, I’m going to have a whinge about the 5% threshold. Imagine in the last election Hone had lost Te Tai Tokerau, but Mana got 4.9% of the vote. Mana get no MPs, and National get to govern, despite the fact that with the 5 or so MPs 4.9% would earn without the threshold, they would be able to give Labour/Greens a majority.
Because of that threshold, emerging parties face the same blockage they did under FPP – the perception that they are splitting the vote of whichever major party they are more similar to, and thus potentially giving the election to their opposition. This prejudices people toward voting for established parties, even when their political views are more closely represented by emerging parties. It’s a shit situation, and the sooner we get rid of the threshold the better.
The only justification offered for the threshold is that is removes the threat of rogue MPs creating unstable governments. What, like Banks and Dunne? The public service are supposed to provide continuity and stability to government. The House of Representatives is supposed to be… representative! Thrash the threshold.
If you want to see why this is bad, look at Israel where a bunch of religious lunatics get to make demands of whomever wants to become the government. If you want a bunch of small conservative loony parties holding the balance of power, be my guest.
The current rules do a good job of keeping the complete lunatics out.
I have no preference in who should lead Labour. Each of the three show strengths that demonstrate potential for leadership.
One thing I will say is this: whoever wins the leadership is it. No more backroom plotting, scheming, double-dealing, leaks to Gower or Garner, and other means to destabilise the leadership.
Because (to quote Shane Jones) “as god is my witness”, I will go feral on any Labour MP’s arse who tries to undermine the next Labour leader.
Time to grow up boys and girls in the Labour caucus – there’s a Tory government to destroy. That should be our #1, #2, and #3 priorities.
Nothing else.
By the way, RYC;
I’m one of the recent respondents to a RM poll – by cellphone no less! http://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/mr-morgan-phoned/
“What these numbers suggest is beyond those who love National, there is a real hunger for a functioning opposition to this Government”.
People aren’t hungering for an opposition government. They’re hungering for political change.
There is already a functioning opposition in the House thanks to Peters and Norman.
But the only real opportunity for political change is through Labour.
@ Tim . Yes , Northern India . I’d like to go to a crowd and shout ‘ Does anyone here speak English ? ‘
If the answer is ‘ ? ‘ … then that’s me .
I wandered from the Paris Hotel in Phenom Penh to a dusty noodle house on a down town street corner and felt more at home ( real ) than here right now .
iPredict are predicting a win for Cunliffe (with 83% probability)
https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD2.CUNLIFE
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