5 months out from 2017 election – National melting, Labour stalling, Greens tactical & the one word NZ First uses to explode immigration debate

By   /   May 2, 2017  /   57 Comments

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Following up on my 6 months out from the election analysis, here’s the run down 5 months out.

Following up on my 6 months out from the election analysis, here’s the run down 5 months out.

Political Party Challenges:

NATIONAL – current poll of polling 43%

National are in trouble. While there are no immediate economic troubles facing NZ, the decades of underfunding and using immigration and student work visas to prop up the over speculated property market are catching up and the blame goes directly on National.

The infrastructure simply can’t handle the students, the work visas, the new migrants and the millions of tourists. House prices will be stable but the infrastructure underinvestment is obvious, and that will turn the middle classes towards Labour as the infrastructure party. National’s announcement last week of $11billion infrastructure budget turned out to be a mix of previous announcements and a new motorway.

Hardly visionary but enough to keep rump National voters happy.

National face a threat in the provinces from NZ First’s looming weaponisation of the immigration debate and they face a challenge from Labour who are winning over female voters who supported John Key but are now interested in Jacinda Ardern.

Over the last few elections National have been known to over-poll by 6 points this close to the election, for them to be at 43% now is a worry for them.

There’s also looming danger for Bill English and the allegations of war crimes in the Hit and Run book. The video tape that Bill English claims he saw does not paint our soldiers or the US Apache Attack Helicopters in a positive light at all and there are now versions of that tape floating around. It is only a matter of time before Bill English will be forced to explain the chasm of discrepancy between what he claims he saw and what everyone else will see.

 

LABOUR – current poll of polling 29.5%

The current media beat up about the list process is a reminder that Corporate media are here to always paint the Opposition in disarray but it’s also a wake up call to the Labour Leadership that the whip better get in control of the behind the scenes situation because internal leaks like this are designed to keep control of the losing side rather than lose control of the winning side. If Andrew doesn’t win in 2017, it’s over for him so he has everything to play for.

Andrew Little has got to control his Caucus far better than he currently is if he’s going to be able to manage the challenges of a Labour-NZ First minority Government.

This bullshit aside, the gridlock, the housing crisis and the lack of a clear direction as to where NZ is actually going are all for Labour to capitalise on. I’ve seen some of the plans to turn out the vote in Auckland and I’ve never seen anything quite like it. If it succeeds Auckland will swing hard in favour for Labour.

If you win Auckland, you win NZ.

 

GREENS – current poll of polling 13%

Here’s what I posted earlier this week on the Greens...

The Greens have few options between now and the election.

There is a sense they may have stalled already.

The Greens had their greatest leap in the polls between 2008 and 2011 when they went from 6.7% to 11.1%. It was the golden age of Russel Norman, but the 2014 election saw them go backwards despite a small lift in total voter numbers to 10.7%.

There is a chance the Greens could stall further and go backwards again this election to 10%.

The Gaia with a vajazzle glamour shoot will turn off older Green supporters who might go back to Labour because the Greens have de-radaclaised almost every policy at a time when the environment desperately requires radical action.

The Greens will also need a tactic to counter the online activist fallout from their inability to criticise Winston too harshly once he goes nuclear on immigration.

But, with the propulsion of younger and fresher faces into the top of the party list, the Greens do have a chance to pull in voters from the demographic who vote least, Millennials & Gen Xers and their muscling in on the Maori vote, while detrimental to Labour at a time when Labour will be hard pushed by the Maori Party/MANA Alliance, is possibly the smartest play the Greens have come up with for some time.

I vote Green, not because I think they are very good at politics, but because they hold policy closest to where I see the country needs to be, but the grim reality this election is that Labour + Greens won’t = 51%, whereas Labour + NZ First + supply and confidence from the Greens will = 51%.

But there is another equation. It sees Labour at 33%, Greens at 12% and a resurgent Maori and MANA Party coming in with 6 MPs between them.

That would give you 51% and you would then have a Labour, Green, Maori Party + MANA Party Government.

By splitting the Maori vote again and taking party vote support, the Greens just made it easier for the Maori/MANA alliance to beat Labour and in doing so provide an alternative path way to Parliament where the Greens have actual political power and not what Winston will allow them to have.

…if NZ First leapfrogs the Greens, they will have little option but to accept a Labour/NZ First minority Government arrangement.

 

 

NZ FIRST – current poll of polling 10.5%

The political landscape has never been better for Winston to exploit. Immigration frustrations, fear of Maori and the RMA, a sense that the provinces who create the wealth are not seeing the  infrastructure, all will combine in a supernova of a flashpoint, and that flashpoint will be Winston Peters.

Here is the one word NZ First will use to turn the entire immigration issue on its head – colonisation. Winston and NZ First will stop talking about immigration as immigration, they will start referring to it as colonisation, and once they cross that rubicon, all bets are off. It will resonate and ring with an angry reactive white vote whom National have to date marginalised rather than listened to, Don Brash’s Pakeha Pied Piper of Hatesville tour of the provinces has Don urging those hundreds turning up to vote Winston.

Roy Morgan made the point this week that NZ First under poll by 4 to 5 points each election. At 10.5% they have every possibility of leap frogging the Greens, but their late surge won’t come at the expense of Labour this election, it will come at the cost of  National.

 

MAORI PARTY – current poll of polling 1%

There was hype last month that there was a surge in the Maori Party party vote, if that holds they have  a good chance of bringing in extra numbers off the list, but the likeliest outcome is they will re-enter Parliament with 3 to 5 MPs in a combo of party list and newly won electorates. They won’t be welcome in a National-NZ First Gov, they won’t be welcome in a Labour-NZ First Gov and National won’t ever go into a coalition where they needed their vote (especially after the damage Winston is about to cause that relationship) so the Maori Party’s only chance is a Labour + Green + MP + MANA = 51% strategy.

 

UNITED FUTURE – current polling 0%

Greg O’Connor’s low party hits ranking has given him every incentive to beat Peter Dunne. Twitter liberals vow they will vote Dunne over a civil rights eating monster like O’Connor, but these are the same twitter elite who championed red peak.

Dunne has to go if there is to be a change of Government.

 

ACT – current polling 1.5%

ACT are perfectly placed to be the counter point to NZ First’s immigration as colonisation narrative and take some type of moral high ground. Migrants will find a champion in ACT. Expect Seymour to bring in 2 MPS off the list with him.

 

TOP – current polling .4%

They are not getting the traction they need, their best advocate is Gareth, but he’s unable to find a platform to gain attention on, twitter is too liberal and he ends up chasing Trolls all day, he needs a livestream video show to gain the media attention he won’t get as a Leader of a Political Party outside Parliament.

 

MANA – current polling .2%

With Labour moving all their Maori MPs off the list they have really inoculated themselves to the claim that their Maori Electorate will MPs will just get in off the list.

While the combined numbers of Maori Party and MANA voters swamp Labour, Kelvin Davis is popular up north and this new move by Labour means they will have to back him, it really will be 50-50 odds that Hone gets back in.

 

The biggest indicator for a genuine desire for change came 6 weeks ago from two Horizon Polls.

The first is how there is a change of sentiment amongst the 2014 and 2017 electorate…

…in the 2014 election, 56% wanted a National led Government, this time 54% want a Labour led Government. That’s a clear signal for change. The second interesting thing is that 77% of NZ First voters want a Labour led Government…

…if NZ First does hold the balance of power, their own members overwhelmingly want  Labour to lead the Government. The caveat to that is NZ First are about to drag in a large number of National voters this time around.

My conclusion 5 months out is the same I had last month, I think the 2017 election will be close and won on the margins, but if there is a change of Government, the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with the Greens in supply and confidence for a couple of Ministry positions.

Second likeliest outcome is National with NZ First coalition Government

Outside chance Labour+Green+Maori Party + MANA = 51%

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57 Comments

  1. CLEANGREEN says:

    “a sense that the provinces who create the wealth are not seeing the infrastructure, all will combine in a supernova of a flashpoint, and that flashpoint will be Winston Peters.”

    Boy Martyn me in Gisborne/Napier we all feel this way as Nactional turned their back on us when we needed our rail Line fixed expecially after we saw them rush to save the midland and the Kaikoura lines but not ours!!!!

    Instead the creeps gave it to an Auckland entrepreneur to run bikes on it instead and now we are smoking mad so look out at this election Nactional you will lose two seats Tuki Tuki & Gisborne.

    Yeah yeah!!!!!!!!

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Id be quite happy to see NZ First in with Labour myself – with one caveat – that the Greens also have a major say and stake in a Labour led govt.

      Its a shame Mana effectively went with the Maori party. The Maori party is one Id like to see the demise off. For 9 years they have sat on their arses giving support to the most odiously corrupt Prime Minister this country has ever had .They gave that globalist monstrosity both their willing and tacit support.

      And for what justification?… because they said they would rather sit around the table winning concessions for ‘ their’ people.

      ‘Their’ people didn’t seem to include anyone outside of their brown neo liberal elitist class, however. And so they were quite willing to sit around the table winning concessions for ‘ their ‘ people while the rest of the country sucked on Keys shit and died.

      And apart from Marama Fox, – the rest of those treacherous Uncle Toms can find other employment. Along with Dunne and the lone ranger in ACT ,- this country doesn’t need anymore useless slobs like that cluttering up the healing process of this place needs anymore.

      Begone all three of them.

  2. Jack Ramaka says:

    Gut feeling at this stage is NZF will get at least 15% of the Party vote and will do particularly well in some Electorates as word has it they are gathering some potentially strong candidates. You heard it first on the TDB.

    • Tom Gardner says:

      Didn’t hear it first here. Been rumblings down here on the ground for some time. Keep ear close thereunto

    • Castro says:

      NZ First may crack 20%. why? Because “immigration” IS at neo-colonial levels. Pravda Vitez

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      May be risky , but I hope NZ First does reach those numbers and possibly beyond , I do not think Peters will back National.

      For two reasons , first his internal party voting system . I don’t think he will risk crumbling support if he try’s going National. Second is , Nationals brand of neo liberalism is far more extreme than the remnants in Labours caucus.

      I don’t see National winning, they are tired , – and even now , under English , – old problems and new developments are starting to haunt and catch up with him and his party.

      It will be a Labour , Greens , NZ First govt after this coming September election.

  3. Mike in Auckland says:

    This year will have many surprises coming, I just sense it, it is far too early for such presumptions and speculation, there will be some upheaval, and some significant movement in the polls, leading to a potential surprise upset at election time.

    That is without even considering international developments that may impact on NZ.

  4. The Weatherman says:

    Oh, the Nats won’t get in – I’d bet my inheritance on it.

    ABSOLUTELY. NO. CHANCE.

    • Castro says:

      I’ll take that inheritance and rent a dumpster to live in in Auckland.

    • Michelle says:

      agree with you Weatherman there time is up they have had there 3 terms to deliver our brighter future no brighter future no gnats

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        Be kinda nice to see Hone regain his seat ,…. never did like that Davis … too much of a free-market type for my liking. A bit like Shane Jones, unfortunately.

        Its testament to how far NZ has gone down the Far Right wing track when many of MANA’s policy’s are far more in line with Rob Muldoon and that era.

        We need a few more social democratic voices such as those found in MANA to provide a true counter to even the supposed ‘Left ‘ party’s in parliament today.

        Don’t believe me ?

        READ THIS :

        New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
        http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

  5. Castro says:

    The idea that million dollar properties are somehow stable is a fucking joke, Martyn, and you know it. It IS colonialism, more specifically neo-colonialism, that is happening in No Zealand. Being left-wing is about CLASS; ditch the cultural Marxist faux left bullshit, or you’ll just end up siding with the anti-protectionist IMF director Lagarde; is that how left wing you are Bomber, really? No Zealand is at 30% born overseas, compared to 11% in the Uk and 14% in the US… this IS neo-colonialism; even Liam Dann pointed out in the Herald that current migration levels are higher than they were in the COLONIAL period of the nineteenth century. Affordable (emphasis on affordable) housing had better start raining from the heavens yesterday, or there is the very real possibility of armed revolution and/or civil war in little old No Zealand; NZ First could easily crack 20% this year; oh, I know, let’s just call peoiple who say that immigration is at neo-colonial levels (i.e. state the fucking truth) despicables and other names, THAT”LL win them over, yeah, right.

    • Being left-wing is about CLASS; ditch the cultural Marxist faux left bullshit, or you’ll just end up siding with the anti-protectionist IMF director Lagarde; is that how left wing you are Bomber, really?

      Having one’s left-wing creds questioned by an anonymous person (who, for alkl we know, could be a young, bored, ACT-On-Campus cadre-member doing some mischief-making) isn’t very convincing, “Castro”…

      • THe Weatherman says:

        I know who you are, Castro.

        I know who all you right wing trolls are. Soon you’ll be unmasked.

      • Castro says:

        Well, “MACKASY”, you can call me all the names you want; I could be a highly intelligent hamster with prehensile fingers, opposable thumbs and a keyboard. How about addressing the truth of what I write, rather than simply brushing it aside, and consider the truly alarming situation that No Zealand is sleepwalking into. The idea that I am in any way affiliated with the Avaricious Chinese Takeover Party is laughable.

        • The idea that I am in any way affiliated with the Avaricious Chinese Takeover Party is laughable.

          You are anonymous. For all we know you are a card-carrying member of National or ACT. So questioning someone else’s credentials is ironic in the extreme.

          And your caps button got stuck on my surname, which you mis-spelled.

          • countryboy says:

            Ha ! Go you @ Frank.
            Is @CASTRO one of those spooks you hear about who run with the hares while hunting with the hounds?
            He/She’s always on about the gallows and the guillotine and of direct violence and of aggression and mayhem. Not that I’m complaining. It’s just that it all smells iffy. Right Wing Taint. Like Ram taint or Boar taint. Look it up?
            Is it some spook feeding an algorithm by logging potential troublemakers by keeping an eye TDB etc? I know, I know. Call me paranoid if you must.
            If it’s green, stinky, lying there on the ground and there’s a bull nearby with a sticky butt hole…?
            You get my drift?

          • WILD KATIPO says:

            Apart from getting annoyed at the constant ridiculous references and tacit support for armed revolution and the rest , there’s a few points I agree with CASTRO, one is :

            Traditionally , that being Left wing is about class. There’s a lot of truth in that .

            The fact that in that class may include various racial groups doesn’t change the fact , – that if a worker from one ethnic group is exploited in the same country , that affects all the rest of the workers .

            From the Marxist to the Christian Socialist , one of the big things is social equity , fiscal equity and wage earning equity ,… it dominates whole sections of Marx’s doctrine ( or should I say more correctly , – Friedrich Engels doctrine ).

            Whereas ‘Identity politics’ was added on later as social values changed , – and in many cases ,- perhaps not all ,were hijacked later by neo liberalism ,- or became a divisive side issue.

            And one of these ideas was that of ‘ multiculturalism’.

            This was never a typical ‘ Left’ wing idea at all.

            It was posited and used as a general and blunt mechanism to weaken labour movements in the west. The idea was to create economic tension and competition among workers , which in itself became a diversion.

            And while at the same time as having academics and activists writing articles, demonstrating in the streets etc,… taking the moral high ground and instilling a sense of guilt with accusations of being ‘ racists’ if anyone even so much as hinted at being a nationalist for saying ” there is far too much immigration occurring – we must think of our own needs and infrastructure now ”…

            The neo liberal right wing used and manipulated this situation that they created to further weaken labour laws ( Employment Contracts Act etc ) and Trade Unions and introduce justifications such as ” we have a skills shortage – we need more immigrants”…

            We have all heard that one being trotted out from the mid 1980’s onward’s…

            Knowing full well , at least in this country ,… the reason why we developed a major ‘skills shortage’ was because wise people left NZ for better wages and conditions – decades ago.

            And so , further downwards pressure on wages and conditions , further competition for jobs that are decades out of date for pay increases have become the norm.

            Now we have a minimum wage that is unrealistic, migrants competing with KIWIS for menial low paid part time employment , unaffordable housing , a shattered health and education system because of deliberate lack of funding , – and an unbridled immigration that creates further massive stresses on our infrastructure.

            I agree with Castro in cutting back the numbers drastically regards immigration. Perhaps a quota from each country , and another quota ceiling for total immigration numbers.

            And a large increase of the refugee quota instead. At least that way , the far right wing cannot use immigration as a tool for exploitation like they have been.

            A good look into how the New Right as it was called back then was provided by Hugh Price of Price Publishers ,… it is well worth reading to gain a historic knowledge of how and where this neo liberal ideology originally sprang from,.. and explains the Shipley’s, the Richardson’s, the Douglas’s et al…

            New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
            http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

            • J S Bark J S Bark says:

              Yup, right on there.

              It is ALWAYS about class. ALWAYS!

              If it’s about anything else it’s a distraction…

            • Red Buzzard says:

              +100…well put WILD KATIPO

            • gail says:

              You guy’s are starting to lose me!!

              • WILD KATIPO says:

                Hi Gail , have a read through this link , then the following :

                New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
                http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

                Thule Society – Wikipedia
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thule_Society

                Young Hitler – Excerpts Appendix | The Thule Society
                http://www.younghitler.com/thule_society.htm

                Follow those links , and you will the historic, quasi NAZI influence of the Mont Pelerin Society and how it infected New Zealand .
                ……………………………………………………

                Or to make it easier :

                New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
                http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

                ……………………………………………………..
                Who Is The Mont Pelerin Society ?
                ……………………………………………………..

                This looting and destruction of the nation-state of New Zealand was planned and implemented by the London-based Mont Pelerin Society.

                In 1947, Mont Pelerin founder von Hayek lamented that the war had drastically strengthened nation-states, which must be replaced, he said, with the classic, anti-state free trade “liberalism” of eighteenth and nineteenth century Britain.

                Many of those continental Europeans present, like von Hayek, carried the prefix “von” before their surnames, signifying that they came from the noble families which had governed Europe for centuries.

                Mont Pelerin shared the same “conservative revolution” philosophy as the Nazis. It also shared some of the same personnel.

                For instance, Max von Thurn und Taxis was a sponsor of von Hayek and his new society. Thurn und Taxis’ family had founded another society in southern Germany before World War 1, which was composed entirely of aristocrats, known as the Thule Society.

                Thule in turn formed a special “workers division” known as the “National Socialist German Workers Party” (NSDAP). The NSDAP, into which an Austrian corporal named Adolf Hitler was recruited, later became better known by the abbreviated version of its name, the “Nazis.”

                In 1989, Max von Thurn und Taxis attended a meeting of his Mont Pelerin Society in Christchurch, New Zealand, to judge, first hand, the results of the “worlds most radical free market revolution.”

                ……………………………………………………………………..

                ” A primary focus of the Thule Society was a claim concerning the origins of the Aryan race. In 1917, people who wanted to join the “Germanic Order”, out of which the Thule Society developed in 1918, had to sign a special “blood declaration of faith” concerning their lineage:

                “The signer hereby swears to the best of his knowledge and belief that no Jewish or coloured blood flows in either his or in his wife’s veins, and that among their ancestors are no members of the coloured races.”
                ……………………………………………………………..

                Thule Society – Wikipedia
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thule_Society

                Young Hitler – Excerpts Appendix | The Thule Society
                http://www.younghitler.com/thule_society.htm

          • Anthony says:

            Castro pay no attention to Frank, I suggest other intelligent readers can recognize your writing. Don’t waste you energy with Franks…

            His rebuttal is very common on Internet posts, just given me an idea though for a word press plug-in.

            Immigration will not stop and its not that bad but perhaps a little honesty around it would be good and limit it to people we want not some stupid PC metric which is all immigrants from all countries are the same.

            People who come with like minded ideas are for most part a bonus. I would recommend also we start having children.

            As a previous National semi supporter 20 years ago I would suggest the only choice in this election is NZ first.

            • As a previous National semi supporter 20 years ago I would suggest the only choice in this election is NZ first.

              Oh dear, a “previous National supporter”. ’nuff said.

        • The Weatherman says:

          Perhaps you should join Paula on her next sojourn into Vietnam war fantasy after you’ve assisted her dressing up her latest pet hamster in a police uniform. More paws on the ground, folks! Wonderful to see hamsters featuring so prominently in her social media while the domestic violence epidemic rages on – I don’t think.

      • David Dmjhart@clear.net says:

        Hi 26 of my family voted national last election 22 are voting nz first this election mainly because of racist policies and weak governance .

        • James Brown says:

          I am also considering voting NZ First for the 1st time ever . . despite all the smoke and mirrors clear that foreign investors are having a significant impact on house prices (and therefore the ability of NZ’ers to buy a house in their own country) and something has to be done to curtail this.
          I am the father of young children and unless something radically changes their chances of owning a home of their own is becoming increasingly problematic and it is our collective responsibility not to f**k everything up (more than ‘we’ have already) for the youth of NZ.
          Owning a house used to be and should be again a birthright for all hard working NZers and not an investment play-thing for foreigners and baby boomers.

          • J S Bark J S Bark says:

            Yes, I see all that, but how does voting for NZ’s second National Party help?

            NZ First have no fresh ideas. You need to look further left…

        • CLEANGREEN says:

          100% David Dmjhart@clear.net

    • The Daily Blog Martyn says:

      With all due respect Castro, calling out my left wing credentials is all fine and dandy, but to date all you have put on the table in terms of ideas is violent revolution.

      Being passionate about your argument is all fine and good, advocating for violent revolution however gives you not one inch of high ground to lecture me from because your alternative is insurrection.

  6. Takere says:

    In east Auckland, GI/Panmure, Pt England. Green members are handing in their membership & resigning because the Greens have sold-out, by supporting Nick Smiths Pt England Enabling Bill which allows the Crown to confiscate any park, reserve, DoC managed land and includes National parks land anywhere throughout the whole country. To then sell to the highest bidder! The Greens Environmental & Conservation Credibility is in the Toilet I heard them say at a local meeting last week.

  7. Takere says:

    The Greens have sold out their members/followers by supporting Nick Smith & his Pt England Development Enabling Bill where any public park, reserve, National Parkland & DoC managed land is up for sale to the highest bidder!
    Marama & Metira have traded-in their Environmental & Conservation Credibility to chase the Maori vote by supporting a treaty settlement thats not a Treaty Settlement with a private entity called the Ngati Paoa iwi Trust Board.
    Chris Finlayson has bank rolled this trust with only 2 board members for the past 6 years, with $33m of tax payers money.
    When I’ve questioned him about the probity of the cuzzies negotiating & these kinds of deals masquerading as a “Settlement”, he just ignores the issue and says he is comfortable with “it”?

    Its great Labour (Phil T. & Peeni Henare, Priyanca ) came out and changed their position & opposed the bill as well as NZF. But the biggest WTF moment was with the Greens? A No Brainer?! WTF!
    Anyway, I meet with Marama a few times and gave her an insight of the shenanigans the cuzzies are up too. Not interested! So I told her, when this turns to custard as it is about too because there are 3 boards, two negotiators, 4 mandates & 3 deeds in play … an implosion is inevitable. The NPiTB has keep no minutes and record of major transactions & have not presented Audited Financial Accounts for 6 years! All of this (risk) is on the taxpayer(s).
    I did say that I’d make sure that there will be plenty of shit going around after the implosion and any party on the wrong side of this Bill, I’ll be sending plenty of it their way! This was all before RM’s polling came out last week. Greens -1.5%. Not claiming all of it but for the last 4 months of campaigning, I’ll take 0.5%! Haha!

    So I’d appreciate it if you good folks get this out there into the public area … am doing it too myself at local meetings in GI/Pt England, twitter, social media, marae too.

    It is a National issue when your local park & reserves can be confiscated by the Crown. Sound familiar?

    The Bill needs killing & the Greens as well as anymore progress with the Ngati Paoa iwi Trust Boards negotiations. They’ve gone rogue, off the reservation and not listening to the iwi.

  8. countryboy says:

    Here’s how it is.
    Yeah. Fuck it. I’m going to tell you how it is. Not make up some polite, limp wristed lean-over, reach-around combo to attempt to allude to it like I probably should so as I don’t upset no one nor nuffink.
    I’ll try to be brief.
    1890’s-ish. Fridge ship took our animal’s flesh to Europe for the eating. First to do so, I might add. Aussie gave it a go but criminal minds etc? Small right? And not a lot of imagination. That’s why they steal Kiwi’s and their achievements.
    That went off man! Fresh meats to EU’s winter. Brilliant! And America! Made it great!
    What next then! ? Wool, cheeses, grains, fruits…
    OMG! The money must have come rolling in. A vast and untapped market just opened up and we were there first! Again. OMG.
    Then the ‘Meat Board’ was shat out the Devil’s arse.
    Then the Wool Board, the Apple and Pear Marketing Board and the by now infamous Dairy Board.
    One small Segway.
    Has anyone ever asked the question; why did we need ‘ marketing boards’ anyway when we had/have a virtual monopoly on the Northern Markets for vital supplies like foods, wines, wools, leather, timber, fishes etc? Anyone? Anyone at all? Agriculture is our primary industry still right? No one ? Oh dear. A school kid with a pencil could have brokered breathtaking deals for our farmers much less the cadre of fat old crooks sitting on their arses in the nice ‘ Producer Board’ offices.
    Prof’ Lydia Wevers of Victoria Uni thinks so. I heard her say so on RNZ.
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/28-04-2017/from-chesdale-to-camembert-how-cheese-helped-shape-nz-identity/
    So… We Kiwis are still entirely reliant on NZ’s ability to create product from the Land.
    There’s nothing else. Unless you believe the bullshit that tourism is keeping us afloat. With the manufactured downturn in holistic agriculture and the rise in cowsploitation giving us a National Debt of $93 billion, clearly tourism is ripping along. Not.
    Again. So…
    The swindle is simple. Keep farmers subdued and debt ridden but keep them making the things they make. Once they, the staffers in the producer boards, get the things farmer’s have made, they can flog it off for a fucking fortune my son. Got the politicians on their side, a little whoring, boozing, maybe even a little coke right? Nice wee trip to the crib in NYC for a spot of how’s your father with Muzza McCully and little timmy grosser right?
    But if you’re a political Party, how do you function with that kind of thing hanging over your head? A big, fat, hairy lie and swindle? How? Tell me? How?
    Well, clearly you don’t. You either carry the swindle in a sack of lies over your shoulder like National have done for years, or you get buried like Labour after the likes of bolger had hobbled the workfarce. Not a typo.
    If I was Labour, I’d be flat out wooing the farmer. But they don’t. Why is that? Why not? Farmers are the engine room of our economy. There’s no argument about that. So why is Labour so completely oblivious to the Farming community but more telling, their money.
    I can tell you. It’s because it’s so big that it’s just too big to deal with. Imagine what would happen? What would happen to Auckland, ( and other housing fallacies like Queenstown, etc ) with it’s banker parasitised housing farce?
    How would politicians cope with our realisation that our entire urban ‘ economy’ was a hyper normalisation? A logical fallacy on a biblical scale? How would National Party voting Farmers react to the knowledge that they’d been fucked over for years and years?
    But wait ! There’s more! How would politicians cope with the barrage of searching questions that’d flood out of us like a bad curry diarrhoea?
    Why then poverty, hunger, starvation in fact, massively expensive public resources like electricity, public transportation etc. And lets not mention housing. Hahahaha ahaa a ! The list goes on.
    No fucking wonder Andrew Little looks like a possum in the headlamps. He has no idea what to do.
    To you Andrew. I have your solution. I have the answer.
    It’s called The Truth. Tell us the truth. We can take it. God only knows, we deserve it.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      That’d be a bit like admitting UFO’s and Sasquatches are real , I’m afraid,…

      ……………………………………………..

      Sasquatch Genome Project Press Conference – YouTube
      Video for sasquatch genome project▶ 2:13:09
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3bOBi1-Zes

      2001 National Press Club Event – YouTube
      Video for national press club disclosure event in may 2001▶ 1:55:27
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkswXVmG4xM

      ……………………………………………

      Perhaps something more close to home would suffice…

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

    • juliana says:

      Youve been banging on about the great New Zealand swindle for ever and finally…
      “The swindle is simple. Keep farmers subdued and debt ridden but keep them making the things they make. Once they, the staffers in the producer boards, get the things farmer’s have made, they can flog it off for a fucking fortune my son.”

      Thats it???

    • Anthony says:

      country-boy : I search New Zealand web services and blogs daily for last 15 years seeking real flipping opinion and truth. Manage to enjoy tiny bits to keep me slightly not depressed.

      Thanks countryboy for giving me a little of it tonight, Skeptical of your stats but good to hear you realism in expression.

      Have a deep breath however. Basically what I have observed is that we don’t fight hard enough for our rights in N.Z. and not fight in the tradition sense but modern day commercial fights, even by way of public celebration of what we have and recognize it.

      I heard that an international company is bumping water from NZ and selling it overseas without paying royalties.. But I don’t believe it.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      100% COUNTY BOY,

      Now we have foreigners taking everything else God given us out of the ground with Government’s blessing, so that’s why the Nactional junta whom are engaged in treason against the NZ citizens now will be thrown out of this country come September.

    • Andrea says:

      Why did we need marketing boards?

      Not quite ‘the Ides of March’ but close: 25 March 1957. Plus a swing away from Mother England (the rest of the UK doesn’t count) along with the gradual dis-establishing of the Empire and the slow creep of the Commonwealth.

      Like – we’re 12 000 miles away from Britain, and there are other countries in the world. Our marketing expertise is not too flash, even now, so it was mates’ rates, jobs for the boys, well-meaning amateurs taking on the world. Rah, oh dear, rah.

      How do we get across the flying fox to where the farmers are willing to start working more, much more, with the scientists and techies, to develop farm products along the lines of that wool being used for dust filters? Or pest-resistant species without the weirdness of GE?

      When will the farmers start voicing up about protecting their partners in excellence – those same scientists and techies – instead of ignoring the stupidity of ‘contestable funds’ and staying back while expensive expertise disappears on OE?

      And, a rant aside – who are those obnoxious greedies playing with ‘spray and pray’?! Hillsides drenched with glyphosate and oversown for a winter bite. Are they MAD?! (I hope Fish and Game sorts them out, tout suite.)

  9. Pete says:

    “… decades of underfunding and using immigration and student work visas to prop up the over speculated property market are catching up and the blame goes directly on National. The infrastructure simply can’t handle the students, the work visas, the new migrants and the millions of tourists. House prices will be stable but the infrastructure underinvestment is obvious… ”

    All true. So it’s September 23rd: How many of the ‘missing million’ voters are going to think those words, or say those words, and be so moved that they’d make voting part of their day? And not vote for National?

    And how many of the ‘missing million’ voters are going to think that those words are being said by others and think, “My boys could be in trouble so I’m going to make an effort this time and vote for them”?

    National are in trouble? They would be if a mass of the electorate could see ‘the Left’ as an alternative enough to vote for them. The disenchantment will see NZ First gain the bulk of the National losses. Then Winston and Bill will get together. National’s trouble will be in working the deal with Peters.

    • THe Weatherman says:

      We need a spiritual revolution – a revolution of the heart.

      *laughter*

      later….

      *the sound of choking, children coughing their lungs out…..*

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        We do in fact need a ‘ spiritual revolution’.

        Don’t knock it.

        Premium importance is given to winning ‘Hearts and minds’ in many military and political decisions.

        And that is EXACTLY what the NZ Left need to do today.

  10. Kim dandy says:

    Yes CB – the truth would be nice… I think it definitely owed to us after generations of plunder!

  11. Anthony says:

    What is left and how can it be valid at any point.

    It seems left means a reduction of progress, money, enterprise, jobs, kind of a chilling effect blanketed on all citizens, how can it even be considered a valid governance.

    What we need is 5 right wing (pro jobs, pro economy, pro enterprise, pro human excellence, trails risk, pro life, pro freedom, pro realism) parties with various flavors of solutions and with various levels of competence.

    Left wing party is a sure way to destroy any country over time, it means National can do the most disgusting job of capitalism because their opposition is fatalistic and slow death of all ambitions and dreams? Why do thinking humans really fucken spin this deception on us?

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      ” Why do thinking humans really fucken spin this deception on us?”
      ………………………………………………………………………………………..

      Why does the right wing ?

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

      ……………………………………………………..
      Who Is The Mont Pelerin Society ?
      ……………………………………………………..

      This looting and destruction of the nation-state of New Zealand was planned and implemented by the London-based Mont Pelerin Society.

      In 1947, Mont Pelerin founder von Hayek lamented that the war had drastically strengthened nation-states, which must be replaced, he said, with the classic, anti-state free trade “liberalism” of eighteenth and nineteenth century Britain.

      Many of those continental Europeans present, like von Hayek, carried the prefix “von” before their surnames, signifying that they came from the noble families which had governed Europe for centuries.

      Mont Pelerin shared the same “conservative revolution” philosophy as the Nazis. It also shared some of the same personnel.

      For instance, Max von Thurn und Taxis was a sponsor of von Hayek and his new society. Thurn und Taxis’ family had founded another society in southern Germany before World War 1, which was composed entirely of aristocrats, known as the Thule Society.

      Thule in turn formed a special “workers division” known as the “National Socialist German Workers Party” (NSDAP). The NSDAP, into which an Austrian corporal named Adolf Hitler was recruited, later became better known by the abbreviated version of its name, the “Nazis.”

      In 1989, Max von Thurn und Taxis attended a meeting of his Mont Pelerin Society in Christchurch, New Zealand, to judge, first hand, the results of the “worlds most radical free market revolution.”

      ………………………………………….

      ” A primary focus of the Thule Society was a claim concerning the origins of the Aryan race. In 1917, people who wanted to join the “Germanic Order”, out of which the Thule Society developed in 1918, had to sign a special “blood declaration of faith” concerning their lineage:

      “The signer hereby swears to the best of his knowledge and belief that no Jewish or coloured blood flows in either his or in his wife’s veins, and that among their ancestors are no members of the coloured races.”
      ……………………………………………………………..

      Thule Society – Wikipedia
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thule_Society

      Young Hitler – Excerpts Appendix | The Thule Society
      http://www.younghitler.com/thule_society.htm

  12. […] It is cases like this that Winston will use to justify turning the immigration debate into a claim of colonisation. […]

  13. Andrea says:

    “Labour as the infrastructure party”

    And what does THAT mean?

    Right at the end of the chain – how about sewage treatment systems – very very affordable – to prevent waste and toxic goo hitting either the sea or the water table? World-class and 21st century, if you please. As a higher priority than anything else.

    Investment in research for alternatives to the condensed energy of petroleum and coal.

    A few more tunnels in critical places to cut out the ‘over the hills and far away’ of heavy haulage.

    Freight train rail with some capacity for passengers. Northland and East Coast – and the West Coast, too.

    Fewer five minute savers (aka ‘motorways’) that cost years of upheaval and millions or billions of wasted hours for the patient fool drivers.

    Affordable public transport that runs at people friendly hours – and not just in cities or bigger towns.

    Water conservation – more than simply bigger reservoirs.

    And two-lane bridges for Northland. Plus moving that peculiarity that is Auckland Port off, out, away and connected to rail.

    Plus both adequate/affordable electricity supply and an insistence on power-frugal devices. We’re way behind.

    Could they? Yes. Will they? Maybe. It’s always maybe.

    • Indeed, Andrea. Resurgent rail could prove a real boone to the provinces, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels and spending ever-increasing amounts on more motorways.

      I swear, one day I will lose the plot and send all those damned, ubiquitous, road-cones to the nearest tip (or recycle station).

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        100% and gorgeous message , Frank.

        ANY modern and forward thinking state in Europe has ALREADY utilized the benefits of rail.

        And for that sometimes lonely voice CLEANGREEN who regularly campaigns on this site for rail , – 100 % support to him as well.

        We need to fall in behind rail for this country , – BIG TIME.

  14. …if NZ First does hold the balance of power, their own members overwhelmingly want Labour to lead the Government.

    Which is pretty much what NZ First’s supporters wanted back in 1996. Especially with all the anti-National rhetoric that Peters was putting out during the ’96 elections campaign;

    “Jim Anderton: Is the member going into a coalition with National?

    Winston Peters: Oh no we are not.” – Parliamentary Hansards, P14147, 20 August 1996

    “There is only one party that can beat National in this election that that is New Zealand First.” – Winston Peters, 69 & 85 minutes into First Holmes Leaders Debate, TVNZ, 10 September 1996

    “Of course I am not keen on National. Who is?

    … This is a government bereft of economic and social performance [so] that they are now arguing for stability.” – Winston Peters, Evening Post, 25 June 1996

    “The prospects are that National will not win this election, that they will not form part of any post-election coalition.” – Winston Peters, The Dominion, 5 October 1996

    “It is clear that this National government will use every means at its disposal to secure power… Come October 12… Two months ago I warned that the National Party would use every trick and device at their command to to retain their Treasury seats.” – Winston Peters speech to Invercargill Grey Power, 26 August 1996

    “The Prime Minister [Jim Bolger] is not fit for the job and come 12 October he will be out. He should not get on his phone and call me like he did last time, because we are not interested in political, quisling behaviour. We are not into State treachery.” – Winston Peters, Parliamentary Hansards, P14146, 20 August 1996

    “We believe the kind of politician depicted by Bolger, Birch, and Shipley is not to be promoted into Cabinet. As a consequence we will not have any truck with these three people.” – Winston Peters, NZ Herald, 22 July 1996

    “We are a party that says what we mean and mean what we say, regardless of the political consequences.” – Winston Peters, Speech to public meeting, 9 October 1996

    And we all know how played out on 11 December 1996: https://fmacskasy.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/nz-first-national-coalition-11-12-96.jpg

    Lest we forget…

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Yes but the balance to that was that NZ First was a ‘ centrist party’,… straddling both benches ,… therefore they could hardly be swayed one way or another…and that’s NZ Firsts unenviable position. Unfortunately.

      I see it as more Peters went with National to at least try and soften the neo liberal impact by winning some concessions.

      We were , at that time , overwhelmed by the New Right…

      New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
      http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html

      To which , was an assault on the New Zealand public at that time, and as we all know… people voted out Labour and ‘ Douglas’ in the hope of change, … instead they got Bolger and ‘ Richardson ‘…

      BOTH members of the Mont Pelerin Society.

      And as it transpired , Shipley rolled Bolger because she was impatient with Bolgers caution…

      She assumed power to ram through the neo liberal ‘ reforms’…

      And all this time , Peters opposed both Richardson and later Shipley….

      Peters is a nationalist at heart.

      And given half a chance , I think he would side with a Left Centrist govt hands down rather than try to ‘ work within’ as he did before… don’t forget , – he paid a heavy price for that stint with extremist’s like Shipley.

      I don’t think he will go against the wishes of the party voting system and risk the same sort of implosion that happened to NZ First under the neo liberal Bolger / Shipley years.

      I think he will go with Labour and we will be looking at a Labour led govt post September.

  15. Dave says:

    Not a bad article. Put simply Labour cannot get its shit together and will not do so before the election, if ever. It would be great to sea mutually agreeable resolution for Pike (between who is in govt and the families as this will go on hurting until resolved. Immigration is the bear in the room and will be an interesting one. Will be an interesting few months.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Ahhh ,… bollicks to ya!

      Labour IS ‘getting its shit together’ and that’s whats getting English and his National party all angsty.

      And part of that includes entering into Pike River – which the Nats are fearful of.
      ……………………………………………..

      I posted this regarding Pike River on The Standard regarding this article:

      ‘Andrew Little: Together, we will fight for justice for Pike families ‘

      ……………………………………………………………………

      The “in-ground resource value” of New Zealand’s extensive ironsand deposits could be between $1 trillion and $5 trillion, says state-owned energy company Solid Energy.

      The iron ore contained in ironsands off the west coast of the North Island has been estimated to be worth a trillion dollars, but Solid Energy chief executive Don Elder said that “the industry view is increasingly that (the value) could be substantially greater than that”.

      The final value would depend on the price of steel, and the availability of technology to smelt ironsands, he told Parliament’s commerce select committee yesterday.

      “Resources are attracting margins or profits in the order of 20 percent of the revenue.”

      Prices seen in 2008 would mean profit margins of 50 percent or “significantly higher” could be available from ironsands.

      A New Zealand-based company, Trans Tasman Resources Ltd (TTR), and overseas rivals are looking at exploiting New Zealand ironsands, and TTR has suggested that a domestic steel mill could use local high-grade coking coal to refine the ironsands.

      Dr Elder said Chinese companies had cheaper labour and capital and could do such projects faster, but New Zealand had an advantage in the availability of the water needed for such a refinery.

      “If you could process those in New Zealand, it’s a much much better value opportunity and would certainly compete with doing the same thing in China under the right circumstances, with the right technology”.

      ……………………………………………….

      There are many overseas company eyeing up those same resources , as well as NZ ones. Opencast mining is cheaper to conduct and – less prone to negative publicity such as the tragedy at Pike River. You will also recall when John Key first came to power, he and Brownlee were keen to exploit minerals in our national parks . However the rest of us were not and the momentum was lost.

      And as an example of what I meant , I posted this directly below
      ……………………………………………

      BTW :…

      Pike River was ONE of the mines that was envisioned to help supply that ‘high quality coking coal’ for the NZ iron sand smelting process….

      As well… the same company that owned the Upper Big Branch mine in West Virginia , USA , … that had a similar methane /coal dust explosion killing 29 workers with only 2 escaping ( just like Pike River) … several months before Pike River – ALSO HAD FINANCIAL INTERESTS IN PIKE RIVER.

      Go figure , people !!!

      There’s a lot more riding on this whole thing than meets the eye with some pretty powerful local and offshore vested interests who are working to ensure Pike River evidence never gets to see the light of day.
      ………………………………………………

      ( Update : Bathhurst Resources was a direct investor in Pike River Coal Mine – which has DIRECT RELEVANCE to the articles in today’s news in the articles below ….)

      ……………………………………………………………………….

      NOW TODAY WE SEE THIS ,… in the NZ Herald – AND hot on the heels of the latest release on Pike River :

      Forest & Bird says Government has secret mining plans for Denniston …
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11848323

      ‘Secret’ coal mining plans on the West Coast alarm Forest & Bird | Stuff …
      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/92107750/Secret-coal-mining-plans-alarm-Forest-Bird

      Forest & Bird says Government has secret mining plans for Denniston …
      mining.einnews.com/…/378838187-forest-bird-says-government-has-secret-mining-p.

      ……………………………………………………………………..

      And historically , – the Forest and Bird Society know all too well how these deceptive mining operators work through Government.

      Forest & Bird Magazine 352 May 2014 by Forest & Bird – issuu
      https://issuu.com/forestandbird/docs/forest___bird_magazine_352_may_2014

  16. Dave says:

    The labour party list debacle and the flip flop immigration policy does not give me any hope that they have it together. If you consider National to be bastards they are at least united bastards. Being united is something that Labour never seems to manage.