For everyone claiming Gareth Morgan couldn’t win the Mt Albert By-election

By   /   January 14, 2017  /   16 Comments

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The Greens have already damaged the perception of unity by running in this by-election, let’s all pray to Gaia that Gareth Morgan isn’t serious about his political party and won’t run.

As I’ve pointed out, the decision by the Greens to abandon the spirit and symbolism of the Memorandum of Understanding to contest the Mt Albert by-election against Labour is a strategic blunder of such a magnitude that whatever clown staff member in Wellington brain farted it up should be removed.

Most of my contacts inside the Greens have privately admitted to me that it’s a fuck up but have all assured me that there’s no chance of a real threat from Genter’s candidacy becuase Gareth Morgan would never stand or have any hope of winning.

To which I say, “Really”?

Here are the 5 reasons why Gareth Morgan would be a fool not to stand in this by-election…

1 – He needs the practise and a dry run in February would be powerful to train him.

2 – His involvement would guarantee massive media attention and he is far better at challenging existing policy and proposing better solutions than either Genter or Ardern.

3 – TOP policy will be released in the first week of February, perfect timing to run and get that policy out.

4 – Could argue to the electorate that Genter and Ardern are already in Parliament and that voting for him him sends a far more powerful message to the Government.

5 – Genter and Ardern could split the vote and he could possibly come through the middle.

…now let’s look at the numbers.

In 2014 election, Labour took 10,823 party votes and Greens took 8,005 party votes. But look at the National Party vote take – a staggering 14,359 party votes!

In a  field that has Penny Bright, Joe Carolan, Jacinda Ardern AND Julie Anne Genter, the ability for Gareth Morgan to come through the middle with numbers like that in the electorate is actually entirely possible!

The Greens have already damaged the perception of unity by running in this by-election, let’s all pray to Gaia that Gareth Morgan isn’t serious about his political party and won’t run.

We’ll know when candidate nominations close midday on the 1st of February whether or not Morgan is in. The clever money would be him running and announcing as late as possible his candidacy to ensure the Greens remain in the race.

The damage caused to the sense of unity by fighting the by-election is bad enough, losing the electorate altogether would ensure the Greens got shafted by Labour and NZ First in any post election Government formation.

Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

 

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16 Comments

  1. Chooky says:

    +100….brilliant analysis

  2. Jenny says:

    Coulda, shouda, woulda.

    Boo hoo. While I agree that Gareth Morgan has the profile and the resources to make a good showing in Mt Albert. All the evidence points to the fact that Gareth Morgan is not being serious in seeking to get into parliament, and is only running a spoiler campaign much like Bob Jones once did.

    I would be persuaded otherwise if he did stand in Mt Albert. But it ain’t gonna happen.

    So get off the grass Martyn, and stop with the wishful thinking.

    And start to take a clear eyed look at the opportunities and possibilities for the Progressive Left presented by this by-election.

    Without National standing and negatively queering the pitch, the opportunity is there to put the MOU on a sounder footing.

  3. Takere says:

    The Republic of Owairaka/Mt Albert belongs to someone who lives & works in the community. Joe Carolan – Socialist Candidate. Split that vote 3 ways will just make it all so much more fun! With a low turnout in neighbouring Mt Roskil of only 22%…Who knows what will happen! 2016 is not to be ignored? Aye?

  4. Penny Bright says:

    I have already been sought out and approached by senior Grey Power members, who are deeply concerned about the lack of transparency and the proven bribery and corruption associated with the vast spending of public rates and taxes at local and central government on private consultants and contractors.

    My long-standing policy and proven track record on transparency in public spending and ‘whistle-blowing’ against corruption, goes back TEN years.

    Politically, support for transparency (and accountability) in public spending cuts across the entire political spectrum.

    I’ve also been in Kingsland for the last 26 years.

    In my view – anyone who thinks Jacinda Adern is going to sleep walk into becoming the MP for Mt Albert, needs to think again?

    Why would people in Mt Albert waste their vote, voting for someone to become their MP – who is already an MP?

    I’m not an MP.

    (Yet 🙂

    What have Labour / Green members/ supporters got to lose, by strategically voting for proven anti-privatisation / anti-corruption
    campaigner Penny Bright as the (fiercely) Independent MP for Mt Albert?

    Jacinda and Julie Anne will still be MPs, and the House will have a fiery new Independent MP, who will be able to rattle the Parliamentary cage from the inside, asking the stinking hard questions about corruption that others will not – under Parliamentary privilege.

    I’m campaigning to ‘roll back Rogernomic$’ and the underpinning private procurement model for public services, which was based upon the rort and fraud ‘public is bad – private is good’ myth and mantra, which has provided the private undeserving rich with ‘corporate welfare’ with its endemic and entrenched bribery and corruption.

    Any other Mt Albert by-election candidate campaigning on these issues?

    Any other Mt Albert by-election candidate with a proven track record of actively, consistently and persistently campaigning on these issues?

    Penny Bright

    2017 Independent Mt Albert by-election candidate.

    • Jenny says:

      Just one question Penny;

      How can you call yourself a, “proven anti-privatisation / anti-corruption campaigner” when you have publicly expressed your support the most corrupt and murderous privatisers on the planet?

      http://litci.org/en/rami-makhlouf-a-corruption-poster-boy/

      https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/syria-stories-behind-photos-killed-detainees

      • Penny Bright says:

        Did you support the ‘White Helmets’ in Aleppo, Syria?

        I didn’t.

        Penny Bright

        2017 Independent candidate Mt Albert by-election.

        • Jenny says:

          Of course I supported and still support the White Helmets, Penny. Only cruel and corrupt Assadists would oppose the White Helmet’s humanitarian work, rescuing civilians from under the rubble of Assad’s genocidal bombing of civilian cities and towns.

          I read Penny that you have attacked the Green Party candidate for Mt Albert for being “American” and for supporting the White Helmets.

          You didn’t answer the first question. So I will have to be more pointed.

          Can we expect to see you continue your sick neo-nazi support for genocide and racist attacks on the Green Party candidate into the Mt Albert by-election?

  5. ian says:

    Mt Roskill was a clear demonstration that party vote is irrelevant when it comes to by-elections.

    Plus, I kinda like the idea of weeks and weeks of public discussion in which the ‘centre ground’ has shifted dramatically to the left. The contest will be between who is more progressive, and there will be no truly right-wing voice taking part. It will be glorious.

  6. I’m not sure how giving the people of Mt. Albert a choice damages the perception of unity. That’s more evident in how Genter and Ardern campaign than in the fact that they’re both on the ballot.

    I thoroughly expect it to be in the cordial tones of “we’re going to work together next term, but you still get to choose which of us you want to represent you, and that’s important.”

  7. Mike the Lefty says:

    That is all assuming, of course, that Gareth Morgan captures the imagination of Aucklanders. I don’t think that is too likely seeing as Gareth is more of a Wellington personality, and Wellingtonians traditionally don’t fare too well in Auckland. Still, it is a by-election and it is quite hard to predict how they will run.

  8. Robert Atack says:

    4 – Could argue to the electorate that Genter and Ardern are already in Parliament and that voting for him him sends a far more powerful message to the Government.

    So doesn’t that mean the winner will be the next person on the Green or Labour list?

    • Penny Bright says:

      That’s exactly my point.

      Why waste your vote on an existing MP?

      Penny Bright

      Proven ‘anti-privatisation / anti-corruption Public Watchdog’.

      2017 Independent candidate Mt Albert by-election.

    • e-clectic says:

      If Labour loses then there will be an advancement from the Labour list.
      If Greens win, then Genter just goes fron List MP to Electorate MP – no change in Greens numbers.
      If Morgan enters and wins, it’s an overhang (next person Labour lit advances). Best way for Labour to get a new face in parliament is to lose the by-election. Gotta love MMP.

  9. Siobhan says:

    Maybe Garth and Joe Carolan, will engage with some of those Gen X and Y who, in some alternate reality, should/would be voting Labour but usually don’t even bother to vote, as they are not able to stomach voting for more friendly looking neo liberal Capitalist crap.

    This could be the significant poke with a sharp stick that Labour needs.

  10. Sunflower says:

    I’m voting for Joe Carolan. Nothing will send a stronger message than voting for an uncompromising Socialist candidate who actually lives and works in Mt Albert.

    If you aren’t happy with your present circumstances, and you want CHANGE, send Joe Carolan to Parliament and he’ll sort them out. He won’t give them a minute’s peace. God knows they need a shakeup.

    It’s time to cast a protest vote. Make it a good one – vote for Joe Carolan.