Election 2014: Numbers and Faces

By   /   September 15, 2014  /   10 Comments

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Democratic politics is a game of numbers and faces. How can we translate the numbers into the 120 or more faces that will be in the next Parliament?

Papakura-election

Democratic politics is a game of numbers and faces. How can we translate the numbers into the 120 or more faces that will be in the next Parliament?

Below is my prediction of a likely result: 120 people, divided by party (listed from Left to Right) and status as ‘electorate’ or ‘list’ MP. I have used the MMP Seat Allocation Calculator, at www.elections.org.nz to translate percentages into seats. (The percentages below are estimates of percentages of the effective vote; likely votes for Cannabis and against 1080 are ignored.) While this is not necessarily the outcome that I want, as an analyst rather than an activist, I think it’s as good a guess as any as to what we will actually get. It is a centre-right government, 62-58 if the Maori Party is to be included as centre-right.

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The polls are generally accurate but are presented in a misleading way, by excluding ‘undecided’ from the totals. Thus, if 50% of decided voters say they will vote National, then that probably means about 45% will actually vote National. The published polls usually converge with reality, however, so the poll-of-polls for the 18-19 September should be quite an accurate guide. (Presumably people who have already voted are asked to choose who they did vote for rather than who they would vote for?).

This year there are more choices than usual on the right. So a greater proportion of still undecided votes will fall to the right-bloc than usual. So I’m expecting that the main differences between the latest polls (as I write) and the final result will be increased party-vote support for Internet-Mana, Maori, and Conservative, and decreased support for Labour and National. I think that 66% combined major party support will be about right.

Below is my table of who, in blue, I think the 120 MPs will be.

Candidates   Electorate
 
Internet-Mana
1 Hone Harawira Electorate Te Tai Tokerau E
2 Laila Harré Internet Helensville   L
3 Annette Sykes Mana Waiariki   L
4 John Minto Mana Mount Roskill   L
5 Chris Yong Internet Te Atatū
6 Miriam Pierard Internet Auckland Central
7 Te Hāmua Nikora Mana Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
8 David Currin Internet Whangarei
9 James Papali’i Mana Mangere Māngere
10 Beverley Ballantine Internet Ilam
11 Angeline Greensill Mana Hauraki-Waikato
Georgina Beyer Mana Te Tai Tonga
1 3 4
Green
1 Metiria Turei List Dunedin North L
2 Russel Norman List Rongotai L
3 Kevin Hague List West Coast-Tasman L
4 Eugenie Sage List Port Hills L
5 Gareth Hughes List L
6 Catherine Delahunty List Coromandel L
7 Kennedy Graham List Helensville L
8 Julie Anne Genter List Epsom L
9 Mojo Mathers List Christchurch East L
10 Jan Logie List Mana L
11 David Clendon List Northland L
12 James Shaw Wellington Central L
13 Denise Roche List Auckland Central L
14 Steffan Browning List Kaikōura L
15 Marama Davidson Tāmaki Makaurau L
16 Barry Coates Mount Roskill L
17 John Hart Wairarapa L
18 David Kennedy Invercargill
19 Jeanette Elley Mount Albert
20 Jack McDonald Te Tai Hauāuru
0 17 17
Labour
1 David Cunliffe Electorate New Lynn E
2 David Parker List
3 Grant Robertson Electorate Wellington Central E
4 Annette King Electorate Rongotai E
5 Jacinda Ardern List Auckland Central
6 Nanaia Mahuta Electorate Hauraki-Waikato E
7 Phil Twyford Electorate Te Atatū E
8 Clayton Cosgrove List Waimakariri E
9 Chris Hipkins Electorate Rimutaka E
10 Sue Moroney List Hamilton West
11 Andrew Little List New Plymouth
12 Louisa Wall Electorate Manurewa E
13 David Shearer Electorate Mount Albert E
14 Su’a William Sio Electorate Māngere E
15 Maryan Street List Nelson
16 Phil Goff Electorate Mount Roskill E
17 Moana Mackey List East Coast
18 Kelvin Davis List Te Tai Tokerau
19 Meka Whaitiri Electorate Ikaroa-Rāwhiti E
20 Megan Woods Electorate Wigram E
21 Raymond Huo List
22 Damien O’Connor Electorate West Coast-Tasman E
23 Priyanca Radhakrishnan
24 Iain Lees-Galloway Electorate Palmerston North E
25 Rachel Jones Tauranga
26 David Clark Electorate Dunedin North E
27 Carol Beaumont List Maungakiekie
28 Poto Williams Electorate Christchurch East E
29 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston E
30 Tamati Coffey Rotorua
31 Jenny Salesa Manukau East E
32 Liz Craig Clutha-Southland
33 Deborah Russell Rangitīkei
34 Willow-Jean Prime Northland
35 Jerome Mika Papakura
36 Tony Milne Christchurch Central E
37 Virginia Andersen Ōhariu
38 Claire Szabó North Shore
39 Michael Wood Epsom
40 Arena Williams Hunua
41 Hamish McDouall Whanganui
42 Anjum Rahman
43 Sunny Kaushal
44 Christine Greer Waikato
45 Penny Gaylor Taranaki-King Country
46 Janette Walker Kaikōura
47 Richard Hills Northcote
48 Shanan Halbert
49 Anahila Suisuiki
50 Clare Wilson Bay of Plenty
51 James Dann Ilam
52 Kelly Ellis Whangarei
53 Corrie Haddock Helensville
54 Jamie Strange Taupō
55 Katie Paul
56 Steven Gibson Rangitata
57 Chao-Fu Wu Tāmaki
58 Paul Grimshaw
59 Tracey Dorreen
60 Mamedov Tofik Mamedov Botany
Glenda Alexander Waitaki
Clifford Allen Hamilton East
Eric Bolt Rodney
Clare Curran Electorate Dunedin South E
Gordon Dickson Selwyn
Ruth Dyson Electorate Port Hills E
Kris Faafoi Electorate Mana E
Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau E
Barry Kirker Pakuranga
Anna Lorck Tukituki
Trevor Mallard Electorate Hutt South E
Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa
Rob McCann Ōtaki
Greg Milner-White East Coast Bays
Stuart Nash Napier E
Korbinian Poschl Coromandel
Hermann Retzlaff Upper Harbour
Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru E
Lesley Soper Invercargill
Rino Tirikatene Electorate Te Tai Tonga E
Rawiri Waititi Waiariki
28 0 28
NZ First
1 Winston Peters List L
2 Tracey Martin List Rodney L
3 Richard Prosser List Waimakariri L
4 Fletcher Tabuteau Rotorua L
5 Barbara Stewart List Waikato L
6 Clayton Mitchell Tauranga L
7 Denis O’Rourke List Port Hills L
8 Pita Paraone Whangarei L
9 Ron Mark Wairarapa L
10 Darroch Ball Palmerston North
11 Mahesh Bindra Mount Roskill
12 Ria Bond Invercargill
13 Mataroa Paroro Hutt South
14 Romuald Rudzki Rangitīkei
15 Jon Reeves Hunua
16 Asenati Lole-Taylor List Manukau East
0 9 9
29 29 58
Maori
1 Te Ururoa Flavell Electorate Waiariki E
2 Marama Fox Ikaroa-Rāwhiti   L
3 Chris McKenzie Te Tai Hauāuru
4 Te Hira Paenga Te Tai Tokerau
5 Ngaire Button Te Tai Tonga
6 Nancy Tuaine Whanganui
7 Tame Iti
Susan Cullen Hauraki-Waikato
Rangi McLean Tamaki-Makaurau
1 1 2
United Future
1 Peter Dunne Electorate Ōhariu E
2 Alan Simmons Taupō
1 0 1
National
1 John Key Electorate Helensville E
2 Bill English Electorate L 1
3 David Carter List L 2
4 Gerry Brownlee Electorate Ilam E
5 Steven Joyce List L 3
6 Judith Collins Electorate Papakura E
7 Hekia Parata List Mana L 4
8 Chris Finlayson List Rongotai L 5
9 Paula Bennett Electorate Upper Harbour E
10 Jonathan Coleman Electorate Northcote E
11 Murray McCully Electorate East Coast Bays E
12 Anne Tolley Electorate East Coast E
13 Nick Smith Electorate Nelson E
14 Tim Groser List New Lynn L 6
15 Amy Adams Electorate Selwyn E
16 Nathan Guy Electorate Ōtaki E
17 Craig Foss Electorate Tukituki E
18 Simon Bridges Electorate Tauranga E
19 Nikki Kaye Electorate Auckland Central E
20 Michael Woodhouse List Dunedin North L 7
21 Jo Goodhew Electorate Rangitata E
22 Chester Borrows Electorate Whanganui E
23 Todd McClay Electorate Rotorua E
24 Sam Lotu-Iiga Electorate Maungakiekie E
25 Nicky Wagner Electorate Christchurch Central L 8
26 Lindsay Tisch Electorate Waikato E
27 Louise Upston Electorate Taupō E
28 Tim Macindoe Electorate Hamilton West E
29 Jami-Lee Ross Electorate Botany E
30 Paul Goldsmith List Epsom L 9
31 Melissa Lee List Mount Albert L 10
32 Kanwal Singh Bakshi List Manukau East L 11
33 Jian Yang List L 12
34 Alfred Ngaro List Te Atatū  
35 Maurice Williamson Electorate Pakuranga E
36 Jacqui Dean Electorate Waitaki E
37 David Bennett Electorate Hamilton East E
38 Jonathan Young Electorate New Plymouth E
39 Brett Hudson Ōhariu  
40 Maggie Barry Electorate North Shore E
41 Ian McKelvie Electorate Rangitīkei E
42 Mark Mitchell Electorate Rodney E
43 Simon O’Connor Electorate Tāmaki E
44 Mike Sabin Electorate Northland E
45 Scott Simpson Electorate Coromandel E
46 Paul Foster-Bell List Wellington Central
47 Joanne Hayes List Christchurch East
48 Parmjeet Parmar Mount Roskill
49 Chris Bishop Hutt South
50 Nuk Korako Port Hills
51 Jono Naylor Palmerston North
52 Maureen Pugh West Coast-Tasman
53 Misa Fia Turner Mangere Māngere
54 Todd Barclay Clutha-Southland E
55 Andrew Bayly Hunua E
56 Matthew Doocey Waimakariri
57 Sarah Dowie Invercargill E
58 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country E
59 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty E
60 Shane Reti Whangarei E
61 Alastair Scott Wairarapa E
62 Stuart Smith Kaikōura E
63 Wayne Walford Napier
64 Simeon Brown Manurewa
65 Hamish Walker Dunedin South
66 Lewis Holden Rimutaka
67 Karl Varley Wigram
68 Christopher Penk Kelston
39 12 51
Conservative
1 Colin Craig East Coast Bays L
2 Christine Rankin Epsom L
3 Garth McVicar Napier L
4 Melissa Perkin North Shore L
5 Edward Saafi Mangere Māngere L
6 Callum Blair Upper Harbour L
7 Mel Taylor Northland
8 Steve Taylor New Lynn
9 Roy Brown Rangitīkei
10 Paul Young Botany
0 6 6
ACT
1 Jamie Whyte Pakuranga L
2 Kenneth Wang
3 Robin Grieve Whangarei
4 Beth Houlbrooke Rodney
5 Don Nicolson Clutha-Southland
David Seymour Epsom E
1 1 2
42 20 62

 

The main point I wish to make here, however, is that my predicted 120 does not include David Parker, Jacinda Ardern, Andrew Little, Sue Moroney. Maryan Street, Moana Mackey or Kelvin Davis. With 66% of the effective vote to the major parties and only 49 list places, there will be only 12 list seats for these parties, and I predict they will all go to National.

What this means is that the individual electorate contests will have a significant bearing on who gets those 12 major party list places.

The other side of the equation is also very interesting. If Labour wins all the 28 electorates I have predicted, then Labour will have overhang MPs. Five overhang seats for Labour would be enough to hand the election to the centre-left group; five out of: Auckland Central, Hamilton West, Rotorua, Maungakiekie, Invercargill, Whanganui, New Plymouth or Wairarapa. I would like to see some high quality polling results for these electoral contests, all of them like mayoral contests. (I note that most Christchurch electorates have Labour MPs but party-voted National in 2011.)

Finally, I note that if the Conservatives fall just short of the 5% threshold, their list seats would be reallocated to National (3), Labour (2) and Green (1). That would get David Parker and Jacinda Ardern in. (But they might be waiting for the final special vote count.) And it would get the Centre-Left bloc over the line.

While the electoral contests generally have no impact on the number of elected MPs in each party, for each electorate MP down the list or off the list who does get in, then someone else higher up the list misses out.

Further, the overhang issue will need to be addressed at some stage, especially if the North Island population continues to grow faster than the South Island population. I think the best solution will be to have Auckland, Wellington and Hamilton electorates that are bigger, population-wise, than South Island and provincial electorates. After-all it’s the party vote that counts, and list MPs disproportionally reside in Auckland and Wellington.

Bring in 1-2-3 preferential voting (see here) and bigger metropolitan electorates. Then the MMP electoral system will have matured, and the media will have little choice but to focus on the issues. Alleged anomalies within the system will cease to arouse the passions. But electoral contests will still provide local drama, and will still have list-only candidates chewing their nails.

 

 

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10 Comments

  1. Mistery Mistery says:

    I don’t agree with your analysis at all.

    No one will ever know until the vote counting is done!

    And did you factor in the response to revelations tonight?

    Anyway, I fully disagree with you, and I am praying to God that FJK will not even win his electorate, and that many other hopeful gNats will not win theirs either.

    FJK and F all gNats!!!

    Opinion.

    • word says:

      Totally agree with you Mistery. Keith Rankin’s so called analysis is a load of shit, he hasn’t taken into account the impact of national’s dirty politics and treasonous activities. Despite what the lying media say, NZers do care. Im sick and tired of these frigging guesstimates, that always end up wrong anyway. Are these people trying to influence the vote, or trying to comfort themselves. There should be a law prohibiting polls during an election campaign. As it is, national/media use the polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink voters.

  2. Jay Ray says:

    The preferential voting system is a crock of shit forcing peoples votes to go to people they don’t want in. Australias system is a rigged system that keeps most diverse opinions and popular coverage confined to a bipartisan system. MMP is a much easier and fairer system that preferential voting. As I have experience of both I can comment. However I could see a two tier system working (similar to the Australian States), where the party vote only counts for the nations government and the electorate votes form a regional council taking regional issues to the Capital for funding and laws.

    • Francis says:

      I suspect preferential voting would be used for electorate votes (currently run as fpp), while the system as a whole remains mmp. This may help move away from the two-party electorate seat contests we currently have.

  3. Korakys says:

    My predictions:

    ACT will not survive this election.
    The Maori Party probably won’t get any seats.
    Peter Dunne probably will get back in, again (ugh).
    Labour will get at least 25%.

    Unsure about the Conservatives getting 5% yet, lets say 50/50.

  4. Sam says:

    Good analysis, despite some of the comments above (possibly an example of desire getting in the way of facts and sound analysis…). I especially like your idea about the metropolitan electorates being bigger with STV or PV systems (it would also be better to find a way to have smaller rural electorates – one MP looking after Clutha-Southland or West Coast-Tasman, let alone Te Tai Tonga? You’re dreaming! – if you could avoid the overhang problem in rural areas). After all, the electorates don’t really matter except from the viewpoint of communities of interest and MP’s helping their constituents.

    Two questions, you’ve mentioned that Labour would have overhang MP’s on your numbers, but the total adds up to 120 – what would the overhang be on your numbers? Also, picking Labour to gain Chch Central and Napier on less of the party vote is bold – would losing either of these seats bring Parker in?

    • Keith Rankin says:

      Thanks Sam,

      My posting got abbreviated slightly, I understand because of references to shading in my second table; shading which was too complex to replicate easily in html. In this version you can see the missing text and shading. Essentially my point was that if Labour wins any more electorates over and above the ones I have called for Labour, and the party vote percentages are as I suggested in my first table, then Labour would have overhang seats.

      • e-clectic says:

        This is a great insight and one I think that is very important to spread more widely.
        The received MMP wisdom is that the party vote is what counts but with Labour’s low party vote polling the electorates can make a significant difference. This surely is an election like no other in terms of the nuances and possibilities.
        I am now going to change my electorate vote as prior to reading this I thought it made no difference – thank you.

        This electorate vote issue really does call for a re-working of the Progressive Voter Guide – one or two more electorates to Labour could make a big difference.

    • Keith Rankin says:

      Sam, your second question. Yes, if all else in my prediction is unchanged except that the National candidates win Napier and Chch Central, then David Parker and Jacinda Ardern would get in. One other point to note is that if the National candidates win Waimakariri and Port Hills and Labour candidates win Napier and Chch Central – as iPredict currently suggests that they will – then Clayton Cosgrove would just miss out by a thread both on the list and in his electorate.

  5. Andrew says:

    I agree, your analysis is flawed and based on much of the status quo remaining, yet none of the events of recent weeks let alone what happened at the Moment of Truth event last night I bet has not been factored in! Ultimately, the Maori Party are dead – REALLY – and if Labour and the Greens do their job properly in Ohariu, P Dunne should be ousted! Immediately based on that premise, we have a Centre Left Govt of 62 vs 59! and that has a probably greater than 50/50 chance I’d say … but who am I anyway, just a passionate supporter of the truth and justice right up to the very top with John Key as PM needing to be sacked for his part in all this dirty lying filth!