Winston’s policy uncertainty principle and Wellington’s grab into the regions

Winston is pacing up and down waiting for the text. Glancing incessantly, obsessively at his mobile. Then a ping. Jon: “G-G has signed”. That’s what he was after. The daily courier bag from Government House had returned with the Governor-General’s signature on the Regulatory Standards Bill – now an Act. Winston’s part of the coalition deal has been officially honoured in full. A gentleman keeps his word. And he ate Seymour’s shit sandwich as part of the shared lunch of mildly indifferent sandwiches all round. And now that is eaten in the past tense, now it’s done… ‘curse your goddamn shitty neo-liberal Regulatory Retards Act and ram it up your arse Rimmer, you gormless dork! That shit stain law will be the first thing abolished next time I decide who the government is,’ he muttered into his Chivas Regal as he stabbed back at the phone, WP: “Send media now.” The old git couldn’t wait a moment longer to proclaim his riddance of it.

That is what happened last week. An immediate rejection of a statute his party had only just voted into law. An extraordinary event I cannot recall ever occurring before (then again there has been no inter-government hatred at this amperage since he was sacked by Shipley). Why pretend it was liked at all then through the stages – professional courtesy?

And then it turns out the Nats might do the same thing too – campaign to repeal it. Seems to be a concession that Seymour bested them both in negotiations and is now paying the price for being immodest about it. This government – and I use government, as they do, in the loosest possible terms – is dancing on a pin head, that pin head being Seymour.

The situation of a government policy being supported by only a minority of that government while the majority are opposed is a Westminster conundrum. When we see it play out it looks like a shell game with three cups and a ball, where the policy is the ball and the three cups are the coalition parties moving around so as to support and then not support the policy at random moments so it appears from one instance to another as maybe they all support it when in actual fact only one is ever in support.

The shell game may not be a complete metaphor, but on the face of it, what has occurred defies political physics in a way that needs explanation. Like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, you can never really know exactly who supports what policy at any point in time only that there is a policy. If the observer was the voter, the space is the Overton Window and the particle of matter is the policy; then to the voter any one or more of the three parties may appear to have that policy, but also simultaneously not have that policy. The voter is left to make a stochastic estimation of who and what is where which is not necessarily related to either how or why. The result is the voter will almost certainly be wrong, and also right. An ideological and policy twilight zone.

Take Regional Councils for example. Please take them. At the moment – that is to say on Tuesday (25/11/2025) – the two National ministers for local government and RMA reform were threatening in their Beehive statement to defang regional councils as part of a “simplification” of local government. What could be more sincere and worthy than simplifying government? Complex is bad, simple is good. Unless we’re talking about civilisation and government in which case it’s the reverse, but whatever. It is destined for the twilight zone.

From what I can distil the idea is to make it easier for commercially-minded wealthy people to exploit the environment by putting the yokels in charge of regional concerns, but with menacing supervision and interference directed from Wellington. They add it as a last by-the-by, as if it were incidental, but it is a power-grab from the centre for sure:

Proposal 1 – Abolishing Regional Councillors

“We’re also seeking feedback on what role and powers the Crown has on these boards.”

Proposal 2 – Locally-led Regional Reorganisation

“Final plans would be approved by the Minister of Local Government, rather than through polls or referenda.”

The imprint of the Wellingtonian power-mongerers are all over this and it’s as obvious as a cat leaving paw marks across wet cement. Doesn’t matter what precautions are taken, Wellington will strut through the best made plans and wreck it all to suit themselves. But this smells like a Wellington bureaucracy plot from the genesis – deep state revenge for the coalition thwarting the 3 Waters policy.

The idea? By breaking the regional councils and dispersing them and their layer of governance Wellington can neutralise, control and effectively eliminate the only possible rival to their governance and democratic legitimacy. That’s the selfish bit, the other half of the Wellington quinella is the complacency bit – the plan makes it easier for Wellington to deal with local government and each council as an atomised supplicant. Selfish and complacent, they have dreamt up their ideal – an anaemic Frankenstein’s freak to do their bidding. They emphasise the point of control in the Internal Affairs consultation page:

“We also want to know what you think about the alternative options of appointing one or more Crown Commissioners (appointed by the Government) to lead or join the board.

[…]

If Crown Commissioners are appointed, they would have the same responsibilities as regional councillors currently have.”

That’s right – “lead” or join. The Commissioners will be the Council. The brass necked damn cheek of it! The sloppiness and off-hand treatment of this from the officials is just insulting to everyone in local government. Don’t blame the politicians for being slobs, it’s the officials who are paid more and yet are far lazier.

A hijacking from the centre in case someone doesn’t respect my authoritor. More centralisation in Wellington is what made New Zealand; but Aotearoa on the other hand could do with an un-making of New Zealand starting with a well-earned 11 on the Richter Scale, epicentre: Lambton Quay. Doesn’t go up to 11? I’m not religious, but I’ll pray for it to be 11 with God’s help – whichever God will help. If people are interested we could start a vigil – the Regional Councillors might be quite keen.

The NZ First favourite drunk uncle scallywag, Shane Jones, was immediately bragging on the socials that his hot take on wanting to massacre the regional councils a few weeks ago was the guiding power behind this decision. But does that mean NZ First support it, given the emerging development of a policy uncertainty principle? The politicians, like the great waha of the North, are into grand gestures and grand grifts more reflective of rhetoric and corporate donations than of what will be the reality imposed by bureaucratic machinations.