Why the pundits got it wrong in Michigan
The mainstream media pundits just don’t get it. They don’t get it that the Bernie Sanders campaign has never been about “politics as usual”. Rather, it is “the politics of the unusual”.
What makes it unusual is that the first time in living memory we are seeing an American campaign that is primarily a mass movement, energised by millions of young people and addressing a fundamental issue, the rule of America by the super-rich “1%”. As one Sanders volunteer in Michigan put it: “The message that is really firing people up is that nothing can happen to change in the country unless the American people rise up.”
The pundits don’t understand the power of such a movement, and its “snowball effect”. That is, how it picks up more and more support as it rolls along.
Sanders’ Michigan victory shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone understanding this snowball effect. In earlier primaries (in Minnesota, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc.) the opinion polls either failed to predict that Sanders would win, or failed to predict the magnitude of his victory. So why would it be different in Michigan? Overcoming an average poll deficit of 21 points in Michigan was a magnificent achievement for the Sanders movement.
The media bias against Sanders is still evident. Where have you seen the headlines hailing Sanders’ ability to win (or nearly win) in every primary so far outside the South? Clinton’s only solid base is in the South, and the primaries there are largely over. Sanders has now won New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine and Michigan, and come a close second in Iowa, Nevada and Massachusetts.
Sure, the delegate mathematics for Sanders still looks difficult, particularly if you add in all the un-elected pro-Clinton “super-delegates” whose vote can tip the balance at the party convention. But it would be a big embarrassment for the Democrat establishment if Sanders wins the bulk of the primaries from here on in and is blocked from getting the nomination.
Over the next week the Sanders campaign faces a big test, having to hit not only Florida (which Sanders will probably lose) but also North Carolina and three important mid-west states where the polls currently put him well behind – 30 points behind in Illinois and Missouri and 20 points in Ohio. Mind you the polls put Sanders far behind in Michigan before his victory there last night. The Sanders snowball of support is still growing.
One can but hope…………
Is it hot in here? Maybe people are finally starting to feel the Bern!
That’s my man. I remember when Sanders first announced he was running all those months ago. You could not have underestimated the huge job ahead of him. To say he was a nobody was an understatement. The fact he always looked like he just got out of bed has turned into an endearing quality.
When you understand that the established way of making money under prudent fiscal and monatary policy controlled by central banks and tresuary are ridiculous ways of making money and stupid ways of running a capitalist economy. It’s know wonder those with a alternat ideas such as Bernie Sanders are now ligitimate contenders.
It’s just that whole getting voters to understand what kills an economy is the hard bit
“The media bias against Sanders is still evident” – follow the money.
Bias is VERY true. Media decides, not the people. Well….
Not this time!
Watch out NATZ here too…
HUGE Revolution baby!
People in the U.S. who know Bernie very well tell me he is speaking about N.E.S.A.R.A., which, if he gets elected, will be put in place almost immediately.
Helena you’re talking unsubstantiated nonsense
According to what’s running on the web, decision has already been made:
http://operationdisclosure.blogspot.co.nz/2016/03/rvintelligence-fall-of-rome-wednesday.html
There seems to be universal self-congratulation on Bernie Sanders’ successes to date, but we mostly accept that he is not really likely to win the nomination. Probably true, but relax. In my estimation it barely matters. Whether Hillary wins or Bernie, or even “The” Donald. (Not sure what the titular head of the McDonald clan thinks about the competition). What will matter will be how many Democrats win in the Senate and House of Representative elections which take place at the same time.
Hillary’s and Bernie’s bottom lines only vary in their intensity. How far they go will be controlled by who they can bring along in the other bodies of government.
Donald Trump is a vain blowhard, sure, but he suffers from the disease suffered by so many who have spent a long time in the public eye, namely a pathetic and almost overt need to be liked. That is the real reason he is always on about the polls and how much everyone likes him. With this in mind this “flexible,” Great Dealmaker” who speaks in favour of Medicare and Medicaid and Planned Parenthood is the ultimate “RINO.”(Republican In Name Only if you don’t recognise the acronym). In the end,for both these reasons, in the unlikely even that he is elected, he is likely to end up supporting most of the things the Democrats hold dear.
The only fish hooks are two. First, Ted Cruz would be a disaster, being both doctrinaire and obdurate. Second, another disaster will result if the selection of a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Scolia is left to a Republican wishing to throw some red meat to the party to celebrate after being elected.
However, my reading is that the Senate is going to flip back to the Democrats, since many usually Democrat states, who turned Republican at the high watermark of the dissatisfaction with the Democrats, are up for grabs again.
Here is another slightly longer shot. What if the Republican candidates cannot get a majority before the convention and no one will drop out (because they all hate each other)?
Now they have to find an alternative candidate they can rally around.
If that happens, and it might, it won’t be Mitt Romney they go for.
It will be Paul Ryan.