Why ACT will hit double digits in 2026 election and why it’s an existential crisis for National

For far too long the NZ Left have underestimated David Seymour.

He started on .7% and thanks to the woke middle class activists who handed him culture war ammunition that we could never win, he is now almost 8% and literally running the agenda of this bloody Government!

Thanks wokies, great work.

As ACT have metastasized, they have brought in the Gun nuts, the cross burning banjo twangers and have managed to become intellectually smug for no clear reason.

ACT supporters are now rich people who will corner you at a dinner party to rave endlessly about Crypto currency, the best military academy to send your kids to, why gun rights need to be taught in the classroom, why everyone who doesn’t like Israel is an anti-semite and the fucking Maaaaaris.

Normally these people wouldn’t dare crawl out from under a rock at social gatherings, but their undeserved confidence and 73 personal Twitter followers have combined to provide a dizzying false certainty on everything from the Treaty to stripping all workers of any rental rights.

It’s not only the Left however who have underestimated David, it is the National Party, and their mistake will be existential.

David has a 6 month hate tour to turn the Treaty Principles Referendum Bill into our ‘Trexit’ and launch off the back of that a Citizens Initiated Referendum that Seymour actively takes to the  2026 election.

This is a major threat to National.

ACT have concluded that 20% of the electorate are foaming red neck banjo twanging cross burners and they are making a direct play towards that electorate.

That 20% is made up of a loose affiliation of different groups:

BASIC GROUP 1 – Rich landowning urban white Christians who don’t like Māori political aspirations but enjoy the aesthetics of the culture to not feel so white. The kids are totally in private schools and their names are ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’. Most aren’t sure what a Libertarian is. They are Professional with zero intellectual curiosity outside exclusive holiday destinations, no capital gains tax and some bullshit corporate meditation daily ritual to ‘be present’, which isn’t that tough when you can afford Lululemon and live in a leafy suburb mansion.  Their children, ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’ are members of the Young Nats and are fucking pretentious arseholes who openly refer to their parents as ‘Mummy’ and ‘Daddy’.

BASIC GROUP 2 – Chinese and Indian Migrants who don’t understand why poor people and the Māoris get welfare. These small business owners lust for political influence and see National Party local events as a chance to work business contacts while demanding to know why New Zealand can’t have the death penalty like they do back home.

BASIC GROUP 3 – Rich landowning rural Volk who don’t like Māori political aspirations and detest the aesthetics of the culture because it makes them feel less white. These are the ones who complain about Te Reo in the Weather report on TVNZ. They live in the South Island and believe the solution to every problem is ‘More Cows’.

BASIC GROUP 4 – Edgelord Culture War Boomers voting for ACT because of shrill definitions of sovereignty and democracy. Like Chris Trotter at a dinner party no one wants to be at.

This group can be pooled into the 20% reactionary vote who will vote ACT instead of National or NZ First all because David puts ‘equality’ in his branding of this legislation.

The problem for National is this is their electorate ACT are intending to take.

As politics continues to polarise thanks to social media hate algorithms, ACTs appeal will grow, not diminish.

It is absolutely likely that ACT will soar into the teens and stay there, but it will be at a the cost of National and NZF.

This has the possibility of pushing NZF  under the 5% threshold while doom looping National into ever diminishing returns.

The positive news for the Left is that ACT cannibalising National and NZF while great for ACT will mean they simply can’t form a Government and Labour + Green + MP will be the majority.

David Seymour is far smarter than his critics believe, but he’s most dangerous and insidious to the Right, not the Left.

The enormous turn out for the Hikoi shows middle NZ are more supportive of our values on the Left than the naked malice of the Right.

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